Derby Talk

Derby Top Ten - Take 3

2012-03-10T17:55:00.008-06:00

I'm having to "scratch" three horses due to injuries; Algorithms, Fed Biz and Out of Bounds. However, my top horses have run very much the way I had anticipated in their early preps and I continue with confidence in my third Derby rating. While others are filling out NCAA brackets, I am refining my Derby Top 10 list!!

1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.

2) Creative Causeway: Third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente and then a hard fought victory in the 8.5 furlong San Felipe against a decent cast, where he hit his best stride at the finish line. A first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into the Derby as a fresh horse with the spacing of his 3YO campaign. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip.

3) Prospective: Moving him up one spot into my trifecta after Algorithms' injury. After running a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs he won their Derby this weekend. He laid closer to the pace in the TB Derby about 6th down on the rail and easily followed the jock's commands on the turn. Now I know why he was my favorite "hunch" play of the winter after taking the Grey Stakes in Canada as a juvenile. Trainer Mark Casse is more dominant than even Todd Pletcher with his northern counterparts and may receive wider acclaim with a good showing by Prospective.

4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish this weekend at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn but couldn't catch Howe Great, who had it all his way. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by heading to the Bluegrass Stakes for a final synthetic prep. After last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.

5) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)

6) I'll Have Another: A surprising name considering the Jockey Club's all-business attitude towards approving names after Mike Pegram slipped "Isitingood" by the board some years ago (who went on to become a track record setter, by the way). Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. Wouldn't be out of the question to see him run into the exotics on the first Saturday in May.

7)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections. Looks like he'll be returning this weekend to Hot Springs for the Rebel Stakes.

8) News Pending: Any handicapper who still follows the "dosage index" theory of Derby winners will be salivating at the 1.33 index and 0.33 center of distribution that this guy carries with the Harlan's Holiday over Lear Fan (via Roberto) damside. But he's still fast enough to finish second in the 1 1/16th mile FOY, which makes him dangerous considering that race typically produces speed oriented results. Dale Romans backup plan if Dullahan doesn't make the field or can't handle traditional dirt surface.

9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. After taking a NX2 allowance score with Bo-Bo Borel in the irons, will probably wheel back in two weeks rest for the deep Rebel Stakes on St. Patrick's Day.

10) Midnight Transfer: I can't believe I'm using my final pick to add another west coast horse, but he did run within a few lenghts to Creative Causeway withouth the best of pace scenario in the Grade II San Felipe. The son of Hard Spun carries a flat 2.00 dosage index and could be on the improve with only two starts in 2012. Will need to pick up another fat check in the SA Derby to qualify for Kentucky, but with the top west coast horses calling Oaklawn home, that is certainly plausible. Besides, there aren't a lot of attractive horses left on the trail via attrition (other than speedsters Hansen and Alpha, who I am taking a pass on).

Derby 138 Top Ten List - Part II

2012-02-26T18:47:00.009-06:00

1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.

2) Creative Causeway: His third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente was fine by me, especially watching him gallop out past the wire. Two more preps should have him moving forward into the Derby rather than regressing from a tough spring training, as many of his foes will experience just to make The Derby starting field.

3) Algorithms: I leave him in my top three now assuming his scratch from Sunday's Fountain of Youth isn't a big deal. Would have loved to see how he fared vs. Union Rags is his dominating performance, but it will have to wait for the time being. Has the pedigree and talent to still get it done if he gets back on the worktab soon. The FOY scratch may put him on a softer path to Louisville (via Aqueduct).

4) Prospective: Ran a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs and was flattered by two recent starters. John Servis' Adirondack King, who ran third behind this guy at Tampa at 7 furlongs, closed well to hit the board in the "fast" division of the Southwest Stakes behind Secret Circle. Also, Neck n' Neck had a decent fourth place finish in the FOY after running behind Prospective in the Sam Davis. He comes from far back but could be a live Derby long-shot, ala Animal Kingdom last year.

5) Fed Biz: Ran a sub 1:35 mile at Santa Anita on Feb. 9th while stalking a hot pace and pouring it on in the stretch. Impeccably bred Giant's Causeway colt out of a Wild Again mare. Starting to become a buzz horse thanks to the success of Baffert's deep stable (won both divisions of Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn) but remember, you heard it here first!

6) Out of Bounds: I'll stop shy of throwing the baby out with the bathwater after Discreet Dancer's (both out of Discreet Cat) poor showing after setting a mild pace in the FOY before spitting the bit. Probably won't get the 10 furlong distance but at least he's a closer that can get a part of it. War Emblem's pedigree certainly wasn't ideal for 10 furlongs either yet he got it done in 2002. Want to see one more race before I potentially dismiss him.

7) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)

8) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a nice bullet 5 furlong work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by debuting on the turf in Florida followed by a synthetic prep. With in the money showings he will earn his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate.

9)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections.

10) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. Probably comes back in the deep Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on St. Patrick's Day.

2012 Kentucky Derby Top 10 list (leave the gun, take the cannoli)

2012-02-04T14:07:00.015-06:00

Happy Derby season to all! With the first real Derby prep weekend on tap with the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and Sam Davis (not "the Candyman" Sammy Davis) at Tampa Bay Downs, it's time to get some picks registered.

Last year my Derby top 10 list was abysmal pretty much the entire season, although I did connect with Animal Kingdom as my long-shot play the first Saturday in May. I started 2011 off with Dialed In (wow, has he even threatened since the FL Derby?), To Honor and Serve (late bloomer) and Uncle Mo (clearly a hedge). However, two years ago I would venture to guess my top five as of February 1st proved to be as accurate as anyone in our industry since I had Lookin At Lucky first (Preakness), Super Saver second (KY Derby) and Drosselmeyer fifth (Belmont), nailing the Triple Crown in my early book top five! Furthermore, I had Eskendereya ranked at #7 a month before he freaked in the Fountain of Youth - and after a poor ninth place finish in the BC Juvenile (save that thought).

So I'm banking on the fact that I am more of an even year kind of guy -- here goes the 2012 Derby inaugural top 10 list that I will be updating about every 3 weeks...

1) The Godfather (errr.... El Padrino): First off, you've gotta love the name. I'm an actual Godfather six times over to various nieces and nephews and my wife can quote the movie like it's nobody's business ("Luco Brossi sleeps with the fishes" or "Leave the gun, take the cannoli"). Looking at Pulpit's progeny record on www.bloodhorse.com it's shocking that this big name sire has so few millionaires. Particulary, not all that much success with his sophomores (i.e. Pyro, Corinthian, Essense of Dubai) with the fluke Ice Box running into the Kentucky Derby exacta in 2010 on a wet track being the lone exception. Pulpit is seven years older than his son and the "it" sire Tapit, yet the son has as many North American millionaires as his pappa, including BC Juvenile champ Hansen (um-bop). And to add insult to injury, Tapit's stud fee is nearly three times that of the elder statesman (still both are young by sire standards, though). Imagine how Pulpit feels at family barbecues when Tapit rolls up hours late in his Jaguar with booze and smoke billowing from his ride, "Yo dad... I need another hundo for my date tonight -- taking Smart Strike's daughter out to the movies." I say Pulpit has had quite enough and will rectify the situation with his first Derby winner. You've gotta love the Giant's Causeway dam completing this powerful breeding nick pattern.

2) Creative Causeway: This is a beautiful grey blob (props to Silver Charm) of Giant's Causeway who has done little wrong in his five starts at two, including three Grade 1's and a Grade 2. This guy has so much back class at this young age and has duplicated the juvenile race pattern of 2YO AND 3YO Eclipse Champion, Lookin At Lucky, with nearly identical success. He was given about two months off after his show finish in the BC Juvenile by conditioner Mike Harrington and has returned smartly to the worktab. As Harry Caray would say (another grey blob)... "I smell trouble here, Sherri."

3) Algorithms: Being of German descent and a tax accountant by trade, I respect this name. Dictionary.com defines this noun as, "a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor." Absolutely exploded in his first start beyond a sprint distance and being by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare this mo-fo should want to run all day long. Clearly is poised to be the next "Big E" - a budding star at Gulfstream from the Pletcher barn - IF he can stay healthy. Three starts and three convincing wins. Not only that, but when a horse bred for distance is as fast as this mo-fo at five and six furlongs, you have a top Derby candidate on your hands (see Lil E. Tee).

Frankly, I could stop my Derby top 10 at this point as confident as I am in these three selections. I'm looking down at about two dozen more names on my yellow pad with most of them containing a line struck through their names after viewing race replays or looking over race charts. But for the love of the game I will press on with as many names as my faith allows me to put to writing...

4) Prospective: I love me some Malibu and Coke Zero. Oh, what I meant to say is that I love Malibu Moon as a sire. Especially with the cross to Awesome Again, who I believe is an underrated sire and could very well follow in his father's (Deputy Minister) footsteps to become an excellent broodmare sire. This guy has a double dose of Seattle Slew coursing through his veins and if you didn't notice, the Slew swept the Triple Crown back in 1977. Some will say that he does not fit with the top 3YO's since he finished up the track (13th) in the BC Juvenile, but please refer to where Eskendereya placed in my earlier paragraph. Obviously, colts at this age change quite a bit as their skeletal systems continue to develop and I'm willing to chalk that up to a bad day at the office.

Speaking of chalk, most of you are probably wondering where the top two finishers of the BC Juvenile will rank, Hansen and Union Rags. Well hold that thought, because I will have to see one or both win at 9 furlongs before I put these speed oriented bred horse on my list of colts, geldings or fillies that could actually WIN a Derby (and/or Triple Crown race). I'll eat my words if I must, but at this moment Union Rags reminds me quite a bit of Uncle Mo (finally proved that he was NOT a distance horse in the BC Classic). Not only that, at least Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile win was scintillating visually and time-wise, while the 2011 edition leaves a lot to be desired with the positive split times of each quarter mile. Thus, I'm going with horses who could threaten the winner's circle at 10 furlongs, not "hang on" for third.

5) Out of Bounds: I'm a little nervous about this pick, but that's why they call it horse racing, right, right?? His dosage index is in the vicinity of 6.00, but he has a nice stride to him and good running style of laying off the pace but always within striking distance. I hear some chatter that his sire Discreet Cat could be the next great miler sire, just like his dad Forestry struck with Shackleford last year. His Sham Stakes win against Baffert's Secret Circle (who had the speed edge) was a classic cat-like move of sitting and pouncing in the stretch. Meooowwww.

6) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Versatile enough that his connections can't yet commit to dirt or turf, thus his 2YO season was a work in progress. After two full months off (I like this training strategy - Victory Gallop came back strong at Oaklawn Park after a few months off) he's just now back in training at Gulfstream and may only get two starts prior to The Derby. Could be the fresh horse to take the bouquet of roses much like Animal Kingdom last year.

7) Mr. Bowling: Impressive Lecomte Stakes winner at Fair Grounds is sired by a new son of Gone West that also has Atigun firing at Oaklawn Park. Was a beaten favorite finishing third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois last fall under Calvin Borel. Working very fast at the Gentilly Avenue track, which is encouraging for a distance laden horse. Larry Jones is known for his magic with the fillies, but maybe this is his ticket to Derby day.

8) Fed Biz: Here's another Giant's Causeway (embarrassment of riches) colt out of a Wild Again mare. For those that don't recall, Wild Again was the winner of a hotly contested inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic race. He proved valuable as a sire although he hasn't been in the press in quite a while. He was euthanized in 2008 at age 28 after servicing many mares in meritorious service at Three Chimney Farms. Though only having a maiden score under his belt, Baffert has him cranked up on the west coast for a big debut soon.

9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. If he gets some pace to set things up for him it could prove to be what elevates him to the top of his division on any given day.

10) Reckless Jerry: Last year it was Oklahoma based Donnie Von Hemel who was dancing for joy with the success of Caleb's Posse and Alternation. This year it could be fellow Oklahoman Toby Keith's turn to strike it big on the national stage. Reckless Jerry ran well in the midwest last fall and came out sharp in a close second while racing wide to Junebugred (Corinthian) in the Smarty Jones Stakes on opening weekend. His sire, Cactus Ridge (Hennessy), also was raced by Keith's Dream Walkin Farms and scorched the track from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile before he was injured undefeated after his Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity score. His son Reckless Jerry has revenge on his mind, much like Toby when he sang, "we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way..." in his Red, White and Blue tribute tour.

Eclipse Award voters get it wrong with Animal Kingdom

2012-01-16T21:54:00.005-06:00

Ask a general sports fan what's the best race in the world and nearly all will respond "Kentucky Derby." Ask them to name just one other race and they usually can't do it. Horsemen are supposed to know better, though. I thought most horsemen realized that while the KY Derby is the day that gets all the attention (and rightly so), the Breeders' Cup is where champions are crowned.

How Animal Kingdom beat out both Caleb's Posse and Shackleford (who ran one-two in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against older horses) simply defies logic. Other than his Kentucky Derby upset, AK boasts a modest Grade 3 win in Turfway's Spiral Stakes on polytrack (arguably the weakest of any Derby preps) and a narrow loss to Shackleford in the Preakness. While Shackleford was the most consistent runner over the course of the year, his seconditis likely cost him the vote, finishing second in three Grade 1 races, including the BC Dirt Mile to the runaway winner Caleb's Posse. Both these sophomores had a grueling 10 race season, yet were still at the top of their game come Breeders' Cup time, especially hard to do for young horses.

But Caleb's Posse really shined in key moments, denying Uncle Mo the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at historic Saratoga after winning another Grade 2 sprint there. While he certainly was not at his best running long, he did start hot at Oaklawn Park by winning the Smarty Jones Stakes and placing second in the Grade 2 Rebel to The Factor and held his own in some regional Derbies, also winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

But instead, a horse who lost his first race of the season to a horse named Powhatan County and who won only two of five races over about a three month span will be voted the best 3YO of 2011? The numbers just are not at all there to support this decision. All this talk about how horses don't run enough for fans to get engaged is B-S as long as our very own "media" reward these one-hit wonders. The vote was at least close at 114-111, but certainly that doesn't take the pain away from the McNeill or Von Hemel families, who could have very well received two awards for best sprinter and 3YO male, but instead go home empty handed. Makes you wonder about the sincerity of these voters and whether there is a Kentucky bias that works against lesser known horsemen. He might not have fit in the right "peg," but to me Caleb's Posse was certainly the best of his class in 2011, hands down. And perhaps he'll get another crack at it with a more focused sprint season in 2012!

Oaklawn Park preview - the other "Spa"

2011-12-29T18:39:00.004-06:00

Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, Caleb’s Posse, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Azeri (pictured with Mike Smith) - a who's who of Eclipse champions over the last decade all put their indelible stamp on the one mile oval framed by blooming dogwoods. Before that there were champions the likes of Althea, Sunny's Halo, Temperence Hill, Lil E. Tee, Paseana, Bayakoa, Tiffany Lass and Cigar. Over the past decade, discussions about Oaklawn Park begin and end with the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Horse Racing's fallen stars in 2011

2011-12-19T15:04:00.003-06:00

See my recent article posted on Horse Racing Nation under 12thCrown for 2011 tribute at: http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Remembering_those_we_lost_in_2011_123

Breeders' Cup - Racing's Greatest Day

2011-11-03T16:32:00.003-05:00

Most novice fans of horse racing would scoff at the notion of a day greater than the hallowed Kentucky Derby Saturday. But insiders know that the Breeders' Cup is the day that brings together the best of the best across North America and Europe. While many are debating whether Havre de Grace can best the boys in the Classic finale on Saturday, to me this year's edition begins and ends with one name... GOLDIKOVA.

I still get goose-bumps when thinking of seeing the blue-white silks on Olivier Peslier's back flash wide on the far turn from my railbird position at last year's Turf Mile, also at Churchill Downs. She went on to win that race for the third consecutive year and was even brought back for an unfathomable "four-peat" (sorry Pat Riley but I didn't use "your" word!). In my opinion, this would be a record that will stand longer than the triple crown drought if she were to accomplish this feat. Even if not, props to the owners for allowing her to continue racing into her prime years.

My SRS partners and I will be watching this weekend with anticipation that perhaps one of our stable runners (Posse's Starlet, Herbert Hughes) can make the starting gate next year at Santa Anita. But until then, my excitement will be channeled through my good friend Clay's hope - Dayatthespa - in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Bring her home, Clay!!

For those interested, I will be passing along a few hunch bets on Saturday through my Twitter account @DerbyTalk.

Let's get out there and cash some tickets!!!

Saturday Racing Stable - Off and Running!

2011-09-28T13:36:00.009-05:00

It is with much enthusiasm that I share news with my racing friends that I have launched my horse syndicate that has been 15 years in the making, Saturday Racing Stable. Back in April, I purchased a two year-old filly by Posse at the Fasig-Tipton Texas sale and named her Posse's Starlet. She is a leggy chestnut filly with a nice bottom (see for yourself at left) that we hope will debut at the Fair Grounds this winter.

Then last month we bought a yearling colt by hot sire Henny Hughes out of a Maria's Mon mare to be named Herbert Hughes. He is an early foal so we hope he hits the track early summer of 2012 at either Lone Star in Dallas or a Louisiana track since he is a LA bred eligible for their huge purse incentives. Both charges are being trained at Diamond D Farm in east Texas at the moment - the same training center that broke Rachel Alexandra as a juvenile! I will occasionally be posting updates of progress, particularly closer to actual racing days, so keep tabs on this blog if at all interested.

The 2011 racing season is still looking for an icon and for the third year in a row it could be another female, but Havre de Grace or Blind Luck? Or will European mare Goldikova reign supreme for yet another Breeders' Cup turf mile? It will be settled in the next couple of months.

Happy Racing!
Eric

Belmont Favorite???

2011-06-07T17:37:00.002-05:00

The betting odds are sure to be tight when it comes to the “big three” in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Of course, I am speaking of Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, runner-up, Nehro, and Preakness victor, Shackleford. Although, based upon the fact that only two Belmont favorites have won in the last 15 years, I don’t think any of their connections will be troubled not to be favored at post-time. Not only that, but over the last nine years we’ve seen three Belmont winners strike at over 35-1 (Da’ Tara, Birdstone, Sarava)!

Read more... http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Sadler's Wells tribute

2011-06-02T15:33:00.006-05:00

It has been over one month now since chef-de-race sire Sadler's Wells died at the age of 30 at his Coolmore Stud home in County Tipperary, Ireland. Yet I have noticed only nominal articles highlighting his unprecedented accomplishments at stud due to the fact his death was overshadowed by the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby. Even though this son of Northern Dancer (who was actually foaled in Kentucky) was known as a European sire, his legacy deserves our attention and respect considering he is to thank for our 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Read more at http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Barbaro - 5 years later...

2011-05-19T19:16:00.009-05:00

This is a bittersweet Preakness weekend for me for sure. Since my birthday (17th) falls on the week of the Preakness I'm usually celebrating with a watch party or even attending the race in Baltimore (about to fly northeast for the second year in a row). Not to mention my four year consecutive streak of cashing Preakness exotic bets - truly a rarity with my unorthodox handicapping skills.

Preakness Stakes 136 Preview

2011-05-17T11:23:00.007-05:00

Lookin At Lucky redeemed himself in Baltimore after a troubled trip in Louisville en route to an Eclipse award for 3YO male. Can Dialed In follow in his steps and claim the $5.5 million Magna bonus? Or will Animal Kingdom again reign supreme? We'll know in a few days!

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Preakness_136_Preview_Pace_makes_the_race_123

Animal Kingdom brings Team Valor deserved Derby glory

2011-05-07T21:26:00.004-05:00

Barry Irwin is the man! One of my first Derby idols was Cot Campbell, when the pioneer of horse racing syndicates campaigned the ever popular, Summer Squall, to a runner-up finish in the 1990 Kentucky Derby to Unbridled. Then in early 1997, the sharp eye of Barry Irwin led him to drop a large sum of money to acquire a horse for his racing syndicate with a crooked leg called Captain Bodgit after a third place finish at Gulfstream Park. Not only was Bodgit a paddler, he was from an unheralded sire, Saint Ballado. But Irwin's intuition reigned supreme and the Captain finished just short of Silver Charm in that year's Derby and Preakness Stakes after winning two Grade I preps in the interim.

While other top owners and syndicate managers keep overbidding for the same bloodstock in American sales, Irwin quietly goes about his business attending races and sales in South Africa, Brazil and Germany -- not quite the racing meccas. He acquired Animal Kingdom's dam with this model and in her first foal (that essentially occured as a backup after the sire he sought for the mating - Kingmambo - was injured) he captured the greatest two minutes in sports with a horse that still appears to have huge upside, considering he is also a beast on turf and synthetic surfaces. And if any of you reading this has a stamina laden mare ready to hit the mattresses in the Florida region, now would be a good time to visit the funny named sire Leroidesanimaux before his stud fee rockets past the 2011 price of $10,000.

Having recently set up a similar syndicate to purchase a two year-old in training from a top regional sire at the same 10K stud fee, this is the success that pulls in fringe players like several of my partners to hopefully be hooked by the sport and become major owners of tomorrow. Irwin has ushered in countless of new owners into the game with a business model that isn't sexy, but posts much higher than average ROI with his discipline and keen eye for detail. And to top it all off, he started his career as a sports-writer (like I aspire to be!). So Barry Irwin, you didn't just win the nation's greatest race for you and your dozen or so partners, you won it for racing enthusiasts everywhere. And your post-race comments were those of respect and humility, something you need to teach to the new kids on the block.

Animal Kingdom claims Derby 137 in a decent time (especially after historically slow fractions) with the largest group of spectaters to ever view The Derby. Following Barry Irwin's plan and resulting success, I am thrilled to be a member of this sport along with several other new owners with dreams of our own stakes races that lie ahead. And I have a feeling that many other potential owners will be lining up with dollars after hearing more about how easy horse ownership can be with folks like Mr. Irwin at the helm. And if you haven't read my morning blog, my respect for him sure doesn't hurt after having a certain #16 horse keyed in some backup exotic bets (and if Santiva had gotten up for fourth - beaten about a length - I would have a ticket that could get me at least a 10% share of Team Valor's next offering. There's always next year!).

I hope all your Derby dreams come true, either today or in the future. Don't give up on the dream. Something good happens to good people every day. Trainer Graham Motion and owner Barry Irwin are proof of that. And a tough break for Robby Albarado, who won a stakes race on the undercard in spite of a recent smashed up face and broken nose, but lost the mount on Animal Kingdom because of the injury. I hope to see you on "the King" again in the Preakness. I'll definitely be pulling for you.

Happy Derby Dreams to all!

Derby Day hunches

2011-05-06T22:20:00.004-05:00

Just a few final thoughts about this year's Derby. I listed my top choices earlier in week, but my official pick to win is Dialed In, with Mucho Macho Man second and long-shot Animal Kingdom running third. I would like to hear your picks (top 3, in order) since I usually give props to the best handicapper out there in my Derby wrap article.

I had a difficult time trying to find a long-shot that I have strong feelings about. Earlier in the week I thought I might use Decisive Moment, but then I heard his trainer say he wanted to use his speed to their advantage. So I don't think he'll be sticking around at the end. But from that same race - Vinery Spiral at Turfway Park - comes Animal Kingdom. He only has raced four times, but did run 1 1/8 miles at age two when breaking his maiden on turf. He returned in fine form in March when just missed at a short mile on the turf before stretching out nicely on the Polytrack surface at Turfway. More and more young horses are making that turf/dirt adjustment, such as Soldat. Due to the big gap from last race, mainly foreign bloodlines and never having run a race on dirt, Animal Kingdom may be overlooked, as he closed day one early wager pool at 23-1.

The other nice price out there is Santiva at 30-1. He received perhaps the worst ride of any Derby prep when Julien Leparoux had him boxed in on the rail for the entire Blue Grass Stakes. That actually makes me nervous since Julien is on Dialed In tomorrow! But Santiva proved that his 2YO form carried over when he ran a great second in the Risen Star Stakes to Mucho Macho Man over the Fair Grounds dirt track. I learned several years ago with Bluegrass Cat that a good horse may throw in a clunker for a number of reasons, but in the Derby giving them a second chance could lead to a five figure trifecta ticket! Wheeling Santiva in the 2nd and 3rd positions may be a good backup bet.

Please email me your picks or post a comment and best of luck in The Derby, especially to my friends who will be there in person tomorrow!
E

Uncle Mo and the A-hole

2011-05-05T15:17:00.008-05:00

I'll let you read this blurb and guess whether the A-hole I am referring to is the GI health issues that caused Uncle Mo to scratch, or his cocky owner.

"Does it hurt that he’s not here?" Repole said. "Yes, because Uncle Mo, in my opinion he’s five to seven lengths better than any horse in this race," Repole said.

"As bad as I want win this race, (Pletcher) is 43 and I’m 42. He looks a lot older than I do, but the bottom line is that we’re going to be around a while. I have 100 friends and family in town and we still have a chance. Stay Thirsty had the best work of his life the other day. How many people have a horse scratched from this race and still have another one?”

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/62901/uncle-mo-scratched-out-of-kentucky-derby#ixzz1Lajm3qCH

There has been much talk within the racing circle that something was not quite right with this horse for over a week now. Robert LaPenta, the owner of the likely clear favorite in Dialed In with Mo's defection, essentially called out Pletcher and Repole on this issue in a statment a week ago. Mike Repole has a history of making cocky statements, such as just the other day saying he would wager enough money personally on Uncle Mo to guarantee he would go off as the favorite. Now he trashes the other Derby owners by saying his sick horse is "five to seven lengths better" than the actual Derby field?

This is an asinine comment and it's time that the racing world stand up to arrogant bastards like Repole. The Blood-Horse magazine recently featured young owners like Repole, Kevin Plank and Bobby Flay titled "Young Turks" and described how these young owners with large bankrolls are impacting the sport. But if this childish, schoolyard behavior and comments are representative of the type of impact to the future of our sport, I want no part of it. I wish Uncle Mo (and Stay Thirsty for that matter) well, but to Repole -- grow up you jerk!

Mint Juleps with Mucho Macho Man

2011-05-05T08:44:00.003-05:00

Thursday of Derby week in my household means one thing -- securing enough mint to begin the maturation process of my secret syrup base to be used in Saturday’s mint juleps. Once I smell that fresh mint on my fingers, it’s yet another enforcement that The Derby is indeed within 48 hours of actually happening! Did I mention this is my favorite week of the year? My friends and family think my fascination with The Derby was fate since my birthday occurs on the day the first Kentucky Derby was ever run on May 17th way back in 1875 when Aristides’ name became revered in Derby lore.

Read more http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Derby 137 - Wednesday

2011-05-04T00:00:00.003-05:00

Knocking on Wood – Potential toss horses

Now that I’ve spent the last two days singing the praises of Dialed In and Archtothe3, let me pause to mention my list of knocks against a bevy of horses (most notably from the Wood Memorial) that are likely to find good support at the windows on Saturday. Wood Memorial horses tend to get quite a bit of hype each year (after Secretariat ran there, why not?) and the last Derby winner from this race was in 2003 – Funny Cide, the longest dry spell of the major preps (FL Derby, SA Derby, AR Derby, Blue Grass, Wood).

See more http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Knocking_on_Wood_Potential_toss_horses_123

Toby's Corner is "Brooks -n- Done"

2011-05-03T10:32:00.002-05:00

Toby's Corner was just declared out of Saturday's Derby after a slight injury following a breeze. The son of Bellamy Road was on my "toss but fear" list, so probably a good thing from my perspective.

Be sure to vote on Derby horses at left!

Derby 137 Tuesday - Archtothe3

2011-05-02T22:12:00.006-05:00

I’ve already received several emails plotting strategy for Saturday’s big race, which usually leads to rewarding payoffs with the amount of money infused into the wagering pool from gamblers and social goers alike. "With the large, competitive fields that the Kentucky Derby draws and so many individual betting interests, the Derby is the greatest single wagering opportunity in horse racing," said Jeremy Clemons, senior director of marketing for Churchill Downs. There are several handicapping angles heading into this Derby.

See link http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/

Derby 137 Monday - Dialed In Profile

2011-05-01T12:24:00.007-05:00

Happy Derby week everyone! How sweet it is to turn the calendar page to May once again. This is one of the few - if not the only – Mondays of the year that I have a skip in my step and actually eager to get into the office to “Talk Derby” to people.

Follow link below for article...

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Derby_History_Dialed_In_Profile_123

Jess Jackson Dies -- Horse Racing loses an Advocate

2011-04-21T11:12:00.008-05:00

It is reported that Jess Jackson (who at age 9 actually saw Seabiscuit race, creating a lifelong fascination with horses) passed away this morning at his Sonoma County, California home after courageously battling melanoma cancer for a number of years. He was 81 years young and his passion and zest for life (especially horses) was displayed several times over the past few years in triumphs with Champions Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

For the record I must state that I have previously been critical of Mr. Jackson's handling of Rachel Alexandra in her 2010 campaign. But the fact is that he was primarily responsible for setting the stage for her historic 2009 perfect nine race season in the first place that created so much positive attention and ushered in countless new fans to racing that were desperately needed (many of which were female, critically important in a predominantly "man's sport").

Never having personally met this man, I feel a humbling sense of loss today for several reasons. Most notably, I could tell that this proud man was struggling with the symptoms of cancer recently since I lost my own father to this disease last January. Yet he had the courage to never complain about his physical limitations or struggles and didn't let it stop him from ambitious journeys with first Curlin and then Rachel Alexandra, where he was present for nearly every race.

Also let me remind all that Mr. Jackson was particularly concerned with making positive changes in our equine community and filed lawsuits that were eventually settled in his apparent favor with multiple agents and parties concerning the transparency of commissions and fees in horse auctions (should sound familiar to you financial folks!). Having just purchased a two-year old at public auction myself, it's reassuring that someone has taken "the institution" to task and criticized the complex relationships and under the table payments with regards to horse transactions between multiple parties (consignor, buyers and sellers agents, trainer, etc.). This unscrupulous behavior by more than just a few parties has kept countless potential owners - and dollars - from entering our beloved sport.

Here is a quote on the topic from Arthur Hancock, Jr., a famed Kentucky breeder, published in a 2006 New York Times article by Joe Drape. "We don't do that and have lost business because of it. When you tell them no, you understand that they are never coming back to buy one of your horses. Honest sellers can't compete with those who cheat. I'm a fourth-generation horseman, and I'm ashamed that a winemaker has to clean up our sport."

Speaking of wine, Jess Jackson (like most T'bred owners) entered our sport only after amassing a very large fortune building a wine empire from scratch. He revolutionized American vintners with the release of Kendall-Jackson's Vintner's Reserve Chardonnay in the early 1980s. A couple of my favorite quotes from Mr. Jackson follow... "Wine is a part of our cultural heritage. It has always been the traditional partner with food. Wine celebrates friends, family, and love – all of the best things in life." “From day one we have been a family-owned and family-run business. It is a distinction that is rapidly becoming a rarity in our industry. Our family culture is built on the time-honored principles of hard work, integrity, and uncompromising desire for quality and the long-term stewardship of the land.” Left to cherish the memory of this titan of agriculture are his wife and partner in Stonestreet Farms and Stables, Barbara Banke, five children; Jennifer Hartford, Laura Giron, Katie Jackson, Julia Jackson and Christopher Jackson, and two grandchildren.

A sad start to my day indeed, which happens to be my wedding anniversary. But perhaps tonight during a nice candlelit dinner with my wife, better memories will surface. Memories like that special September day in 2009 when Jess and I were two of the 31,171 fans in attendance to witness Rachel's perfection - a day that perhaps even Jess counted as one of his best. Thus, the picture you see in this article is how I will remember this man - a jubilant champion! Especially since I am in the background just left of his raised trophy. And tonight I will raise a toast to Jess (and to my wife, of course) with what else - a glass of Kendall-Jackson Vintner's Reserve! Godspeed my friend.
Eric

Derby Top 10 - April 8 update

2011-04-08T20:48:00.010-05:00

Top 10 removals: I will be removing Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky due to poor performance and forced to scratch Premier Pegasus and To Honor and Serve due to injuries - all within past two days! At this point, I'm not sure I can even find four new horses to meet my quota, but I'll give it the good old college try...

1) Dialed In – In my last update I stated, "Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville." At this point, I would almost rather he lost the close decision in the Florida Derby to 70-1 shot Shackleford. Then even more skeptics would be saying for two races in a row he wasn't good enough to beat long-shot winners. But if you've heard me say it once, you've heard it a thousand times from me that "pace makes the race." In spite of apparent legit fractions, the track was clearly displaying a speed bias as the only horse in the 8 horse field who gained ground from the 6th to 9th furlong was Dialed In, a remarkable statistic! With the unprecedented changes in my top 10 list this year with the long-shot winners and numerous injuries, this guy has reassured me why he's been my top pick all along. He may need that extra week or two prior to The Derby to recoup from his furios stretch drive.

2) Santiva – Still waiting for next weekend's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has performed well as a 2YO. Likely the most versatile colt heading towards Louisville in that he has run well pressing the pace but has also circled the field to win. Should be a small price in his final prep and I'm tempted to make a large exacta wager and hope for yet another huge long-shot to key a nice exotic payoff!

3) Uncle Mo – A bizarre Derby trail could become a historically insane year if 'Mo is upstaged on Saturday. He is less susceptible to upset since he is usually the controlling speed that can prevent another horse let alone on a dawdling pace. Very few 3YO's can withstand the rigors of The Derby without having been tested and the undeniable fact is that this one has had the easiest route to Louisville, possibly ever! If The Factor runs well at Oaklawn next weekend and goes Derby bound that could throw a wrench in Mo's plans if he's not able to rate. He very much reminds me of a Quality Road type - uber talent with pure speed, but these types sometime come undone in big races.

4) Mucho Macho Man – Didn't have a great Louisiana Derby but the pace didn't really set up for his stretch run. Disturbing that he got passed that easily by 36-1 shot maiden winner Nehro for the place, but sometimes closers too close to the lead will run evenly. The bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. With this breeding advantage at longer distances, I'm keeping him relatively high on the list.

5) Astrology - Not sure why Asmussen decided to wait so long for his unveiling, perhaps he knew he could pick up enough earnings in two preps. Sharp second in the 800K Sunland Derby (don't laugh, Mine That Bird went that route!) after pressing a very fast pace and fighting gamely in the stretch off a four month layoff at 1 1/8 miles. Just read today where A.P. Indy has been pensioned from stud duty due to infertility and how appropriate would it be for one of his youngest sons to get the chefs-de-race sire on the board in the world's greatest horse race.

6) Jaycito – Baffert had to scratch from the Santa Anita Derby this weekend due to a lingering hoof abcess, but will send him to the Coolmore Lexington Stakes just two weeks prior to The Derby. I actually like this race pattern, as opposed to sitting out 6 weeks - especially with such a fresh horse. Typically comes from the clouds so he will need an average or better pace in Derby, but with these long-shots going forward, several may decide if they can't win The Derby they want to say the led "a few laps" and make the pace hotter.

7) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.

8)Silver Medallion - This year's turf/synthetic specialist who is trying conventional dirt for the first time in the SA Derby. Smartly bred grandson of Silver Deputy out of a Stalwart mare could be dangerous this weekend and again on May 7th if he takes to the dirt, as his breeding suggests he could do. I'm a big fan of the underrated Silver Deputy - Deputy Minister blood and this one could verify my hunch.

9) Anthony's Cross - Well raced as a 2YO, he has switched results with a couple others on this list but seems to be doing well at the moment. If you watch his gutsy Robert Lewis Stakes victory, it's hard to see how any horse could ever run by this guy. Should run well in the SA Derby as he's proven he likes the track and could punch his ticket to the big dance with a win, place, or possibly even show effort.

10)Brethren - Was back and forth between this one and Alternation - the Von Hemel Distorted Humor colt I was backing in The Rebel who flipped in the stall and had to scratch. Brethren's older brother Super Saver had a poor race at Tampa Bay Downs last spring also before running second in the ARK Derby and then taking the roses, so that's good enough for my last spot.

Enjoy the Derby preps this weekend and let's continue to pull for Uncle Mo to win handily to set the stage in Louisville.

Happy Racing!

Kentucky Derby Top 10 list - March 20

2011-03-20T21:34:00.005-05:00

Another two weekends of prep races have come and gone, yet I am stuck in a rut with my Derby handicapping. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a flop with two bomb long-shots completing the $2,200 exacta (on a $2 bet!). Now don't get me wrong, I prefer a mid-priced horse winning here and there to spark a nice payoff. But this race outcome reminded me of the Rockamundo shocker at 100-1 in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, Calvin Borel's first major victory. At least it was a nice and sunny day at the Oldsmar, FL track with a festive crowd in attendance.

But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!

Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).

1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.

2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.

3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.

4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).

5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.

6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.

7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.

8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.

9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.

Happy Racing!
E

Uncle Mo tops weekend preps

2011-03-07T22:06:00.005-06:00

What we are fairly sure of is that Uncle Mo will run on Saturday, although still not positive where - in the Tampa Bay Derby or Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, an "overnight" stakes (assuming enough horses enter) created to fit the specs of Pletcher. When the race was originally scheduled to be run at 8.5 furlongs, there was a chance that Dialed In and Uncle Mo would have gone head to head in this ungraded race at Gulfstream. But after owner Mike Repole made the case to Gulfstream's racing secretary to shorten the race to a one-turn mile for Uncle Mo, Nick Zito looked elsewhere to get valuable two-turn experience for his son of Mineshaft, even though that meant in a small field against older horses. So even though Dialed In ran a fast closing second after spotting a dawdling pace, perhaps this could be more meaningful than anything Mo may do this weekend.

I, for one, hope Mo is on or pressing the pace and wins in a blistering time in the Timely Writer. Based on this year's early favorites running poorly (Comma to the Top, To Honor and Serve, Tapizar), not running at all (Jaycito, Astrology) or off the trail (Boys at Tosconova), a strong showing by Mo on Saturday will create a virtual walkover in the Wood Memorial and essentially put his odds at even money come the first Saturday in May. And to beat him on that day with more battle tested horses means a five figure trifecta payout!

I'm not going to release my third Top 10 list under after Mo's first appearance on the trail, but elsewhere this weekend on the left coast, Jaycito and Comma to the Top look to stay in The Derby fray in The San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the new, lightning-fast Santa Anita dirt track.

Also, next weekend's Rebel Stakes at my beloved home track of Oaklawn Park is setting up to be a doozy. The Factor, Astrology and Sway Away from California are likely to join the top five finishers from the Southwest Mile (won by ArchArchArch) and multiple Oaklawn allowance winner Alternation, the son of Distorted Humor who won on the undercard to the Southwest in a faster time. With this many horses still fighting for precious graded stakes money, an off-the-board finish in the Rebel may mean goodbye to The Derby trail (and hello to the lower rungs, like the Lone Star or West Virginia Derby).

Good luck at the betting windows this weekend! I'll publish my report from the Tampa Bay Derby next week.

Pillow Talk - Zenyatta and Rachel in the news again!

2011-02-25T11:48:00.007-06:00

In my four years of publishing this blog, I have never (and likely never to again) had an opportunity to comment on a breeding session. But with back to back Horse of the Year mares going to the mattresses in such a highly publicized week, I must jump on this opportunity...

Zenyatta, the electrifying 2010 Horse of the Year, was bred on Wednesday to Darley stallion Bernardini, son of master sire A.P. Indy. She was the second top racemare to be mated in the Bluegrass state this week. The full-figured mare owned by Jerry and Ann Moss was picked up by a horse van (where she was served champagne and chocolate covered peppermints) from William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm at about 7:30 a.m. (EST) for the 10-minute trip to Darley Farm near Lexington. The feisty Zenyatta requested that Ke$ha’s “Animal” be played during the breeding session. Unfortunately for her, the mating lasted much shorter than the van ride, as Bernardini had four other “dates” planned for later that day. At $75,000 a pop, he is thought to be the highest paid male escort since Kato Kaelin. According to the Zenyatta website, "It went very well. In horse terms, it was ‘one jump...and a very good cover’... meaning that everything went perfectly in our first meeting," said the website post, written as if told by Zenyatta. Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61524/horse-of-the-year-zenyatta-bred-to-bernardini#ixzz1EzU94wnP

Elsewhere in Kentucky, two horses previously crowned Horse of the Year were bred on Feb. 21st when the 2009 superstar Rachel Alexandra was mated with stallion Curlin. The mating took place at 9 a.m. (EST) at William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm near Versailles, Ky. Onlookers in the breeding shed reported that Curlin requested the soothing tones of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On” as Rachel entered the room, fitted with a pink negligee blanket and ribbons in her mane. Rachel then closed the curtain and much nickering ensued over the following 15 minutes, at which point the cigarette smoke indicated the session was over. “It was just a very routine visit,” said Farish. “She accepted him and he her. We are very excited to have her and, of course, Zenyatta, who could be bred within the next week.”

So now the competition turns to who can drop a healthy foal the fastest -- stay tuned!

Derby Top 10 update - Feb. 22

2011-02-22T22:05:00.005-06:00

First of all, I must say that I had a pretty crappy weekend all around. I drove to Hot Springs for a relaxing three day weekend to witness the Southwest Stakes and get my first live taste of Derby fever 2011. By late afternoon Monday, I had cashed nary a ticket ("0 for Oaklawn" as my friends put it), three of my original top 10 picks failed to threaten in their respective races, and to top it all off one of my two Derby futures bets had already been declared off the trail due to injury! Luckily, I made it back to Dallas okay and I'm ready to lick my wounds and re-group, since the next prep race could be the one that makes me forget about all these trivial concerns.

I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...

1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.

2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.

3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!

4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.

5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.

6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.

7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.

8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!

9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.

Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E

2011 Kentucky Derby Trail

2011-02-02T15:18:00.009-06:00

On the heels (pun intended) of two of the greatest campaigns by a filly or mare of all-time in Rachel's 2009 and Zenyatta's 2010 season, it's time that the Derby sophomores reclaim the headlines. And there appears to be a talented enough crop to do the job in 2011 led by Uncle Mo, who has received the most amount of hype for a juvenile that I can recall since Arazi in 1992 and Favorite Trick - the Juvenile champion and overall Horse of the Year in 1997. Speaking of droughts, Lookin At Lucky broke a historic one last year when he was the only 2YO champion to repeat as 3YO champion since Spectacular Bid waaaaayyyy back in 1979!

Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).

It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:

2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."

2011 Derby list #1

1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.

2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!

3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.

4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.

5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!

6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.

7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.

8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.

9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!

So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.

Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!

Happy Hunting,
E

Blame defeats "Queen Zen" in epic Breeders' Cup

2010-11-10T17:23:00.004-06:00

Man o' War lost one in 21 races to a horse named Upset. Zenyatta loses one in 20 to a horse called Blame - how's that for irony?! Last Saturday I saw the greatest race I have ever witnessed. It doesn't always happen that the best horses in the race are able to be on the top of their game on that same day to duke it out to the wire, but Blame and Zenyatta were clearly superior to the rest of the field. Though the vast majority of the 72,739 folks at Churchill Downs and millions watching on ABC or online wanted Big Z to pull it out, she showed uber class by putting in her patented, Silky-Sullivan type, furious rally through the stretch after getting dirt flung up her nostrils for seven furlongs of the ten furlong race. At one point, I was even afraid Mike Smith may have to pull a "Big Brown" she was being so far distanced from the main pack.

The pace was legitimate and most horses had a fairly clean trip -- the fact that Big Z comes from so far back leads to the risk that she would either have to go extremely wide (as Mike Smith typically guides her) or have to temporarily check while waiting for position into the far turn, which happened in the Classic. While this could or could not have been the difference in this race result (Blame galloped out strongly after the wire, so we can't assume Zen would have passed him with a perfect trip), what it proved to me is how superior Zenyatta has been during her previous 19 race unbeaten streak and the heart she showed in pushing Blame to his limit. And I certainly don't "blame" Mike Smith in any way for his ride (although he stated in tears that he left her "too much to do"), as the trip could have certainly been worse than it was.

Comparing her feat to other notable streaks in recent memory, Cigar had a stalking style, which gave him the perfect trip for Jerry Bailey to dictate pace and move when he needed to stay near the rail and out of trouble. His defeat by Dare and Go was the result of a baiting pace scenario by Siphon where Bailey had him essentially on the lead when the fractions were much faster than average, thus he was susceptible and ultimately was passed in deep stretch by the other Dick Mandella entrant. Even Rachel Alexandra last year had the huge advantage in her perfect nine race campaign where she was either on the lead or just off a horse so that she had no chance to get blocked or lose momentum at any point. Although, we witnessed how this nearly backfired with an over-confident ride by Calvin Borel during the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, where she desperately held off closer Macho Again (but never again returned as the same horse). Finally, perhaps the last horse to exhibit as much aversion to running when leaving the gate was the infamous Silky Sullivan, whose name is now used to describe a horse that falls 20 - 30 lengths off the lead until the final stretch drive. His career stats from the late 1950's prove how ineffective this running style can be with only 12 wins and 1 second from 27 lifetime starts! Closers who have to swing wide around the turn or who lose momentum waiting for a hole to open truly have to be several lenghts better than the rest of the field to make up for this tactical disadvantage. And on Breeders' Cup Saturday for once, Zenyatta could not overcome this.

We're not ready to let go of the Big Z - especially now that most Americans east of the Mississippi River have seen what all the fuss is about. Mike Smith desperately wants a do-over. Californians shutter when imagining her "retiring" to Kentucky. The NTRA and racing journals have just now realized how bright Zen's star burns (and how much revenue she is bringing in with special editions, posters and hats). But most importantly, we need Big Z to come back for fans like little Megan from Bardstown. This was the first race ever attended by the 10 year-old and she was treated to one of the greatest BC Classics (if not races) of all time. Do you think Megan came to see Blame or Goldikova or Uncle Mo -- hell no!

E's letter to Zenyatta:

Dear Zen,
Do you realize how much pure, unbridled joy you have brought to so many? You have inspired so many people in all types of trying circumstances to keep fighting and to never give up with your effort on the track and your hospitable, infectious personality in the barn area. You let us all be a part of your life and share in your plethora of success. You were even gracious enough to put your training on hold for an interview with 60 minutes (even though they "only" sent Steve Kroft, when Leslie Stahl would have been a much better choice for you!). I was one of the fortunate fans who lived near Oaklawn Park and was able to see your strut, feel your inspiration and be touched by your greatness a few times - most are not so lucky. There's a reason the only names being referenced to you this week were horse of the last decade Cigar and the legendary Secretariat. Come back and race longer to let your legacy continue to grow and shine your light as an inspiration to so many others.

I visited Cigar on Friday before the Breeders' Cup at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington and he is totally bored. Don't get me wrong, Cathy and the volunteers do a fabulous job taking care of him and ensuring his quality of life, but he's still trapped inside a fenced stall just slightly larger than the size of my office for the majority of his day - and I know that I feel caged! And contrary to popular belief based on your size, you are - in fact - a woman, so your breeding value for one season can't be more than what you will certainly earn on the race track, with or without appearance fees. And now that you have an ever-so-small blemish on your record of perfection, you have no more pressure on future races - just run for fun! So what I'm trying to say Zenyatta is that we all love you - can't you please stay and play a little longer?

Your Admiring Friend,
E

Breeders Cup preview

2010-11-06T10:16:00.003-05:00

Happy Breeders Cup 2010 to all! This could be a truly historic day at the most historic track in the US, particularly for Breeders Cup races. The hype in Louisville remains whether Queen Zen can duplicate her success from last year on a dirt track. Surprisingly, there are more doubters than believers in the ranks of media. But Mike Smith has tipped us off with comments that he expects something truly special - perhaps he will let the big mare crush her male opponents and critics everywhere under the lights of the famed twin spires.
Here's a few spot plays for those interested:
Juvenile Turf - Soldat over Banned, Humble and Hungry.
Turf Sprint - Rose Catherine with Chamberlain Bridge, Grand Adventure.
Juvenile- Boys at Tosconova over Jaycito, Biondetti.
Dirt Mile - Here Comes Ben over Tizway, Thiskyhasnolimit.
Turf - Winchester and Al Khali.
Classic - Zenyatta clear of the field, watch close from Fly Down!

SSSSHHHHH… A moment of silence for 1998 Kentucky Derby champ Real Quiet

2010-09-28T15:55:00.003-05:00

The Bob Baffert trainee know as “The Fish” was killed in a freak stall accident on September 27th at age 15. While Baffert was already on the racing map in 1998 with his previous year’s Derby victor – Silver Charm, repeating the task the very next season with long-time pal Mike Pegram put a new, brash style of ownership squarely in the forefront of American thoroughbred racing. In the winner’s circle of hallowed Churchill Downs holding The Derby trophy, Pegram tipsily exclaimed, “We’re gonna be drinkin’ some beer tonight… Budweiser beer!” Mike was referring to the Anheuser-Busch distributorship owned by Robert Lewis, fellow owner to Bob Baffert with Silver Charm. After all, Pegram was the same owner who had recently named a top-priced filly sales purchase and future Eclipse Champion “Silverbulletday” after his preferred lager of choice – Coors Light.

The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.

During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.

Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.

Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.

Afleet Express noses out Fly Down and Zito in Midsummer Derby

2010-08-31T15:45:00.007-05:00

Editor's note: Sorry - thought I had posted this weeks ago!

The Travers Stakes at Saratoga has a lofty reputation for displaying the top 3 year-0lds of the "second half" of the racing season, which is rarely the same group of sophomores considering the brutal grind of the spring Derby fever prep races. With the narrowest of victories, Afleet Express essentially locked up divisional honors for a colt not even in the race, Lookin At Lucky. The victory also catapulted his sire, Afleet Alex, to the head of the second crop sires list and now seems well on his way to be a major influence in classic bloodlines, ala Birdstone.

Perhaps if Fly Down could have gotten his nose to the wire first he could have still made a case for an Eclipse Award with a good showing in a Breeders' Cup race, considering his previous Belmont runner-up status. But Baffert has yet again proven his skills in this division. Three year-olds are especially judged by the Triple Crown series and with Super Saver and Ice Box's poor showing in the Travers, Lucky is essentially the last horse standing. But First Dude deserves another mention for yet another in the money finish with his show spot. The 3 year-old bay colt now has hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes (all grade I), and has earned more than $600,000 despite only a maiden victory in ten career starts!

Moving on to the Zenyatta vs. Rachel debate (as if there was any remaining), Miss Zen picked up her 18th consecutive victory without a defeat in early August at seaside Del Mar in the Grade I Clement Hirsch Stakes. Mike Smith rode Zen with extreme confidence as she was fanned wide on the turn and reached the front much earlier in the race than usual, but held on by her mammoth neck. She will likely get one penultimate start in California before the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic.

On the other coast, Rachel Alexandra lost her third race of 2010 while racing at 10 furlongs for the first time in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at historic Saratoga -- the site of her titillating victory in last summer's Woodward Stakes. After flashing her customary early speed to put away Life At Ten by the quarter pole, Rachel could not withstand the persistent stretch run of, well... Persistently - the $45 winner. This result confirms my belief that Rachel is most effective between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, which may now leave the Ladies Classic race as the only option for owner and trainer for Breeders' Cup consideration (assuming she shows up at all to Churchill Downs!).

Zenyatta reaffirms her place in history with 17th victory

2010-06-25T14:48:00.009-05:00

Great Britain had the Beatles, South Africa rejoices with their vuvuzelas and now Hollywood Park patrons (and fellow Americans) celebrate the greatness that is Zenyatta. Named after the third Police album, "Zenyatta Mondatta" - which was widely proclaimed as Sting's break-out party, the giant dark brown (although she appears black) mare with the familiar full blaze now stands alone in the record books with her 17th consecutive victory in unrestricted races, 11 having been in Grade 1 company.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert came out even though he didn't have any horses running Sunday, along with Bo Derek and composer Burt Bacharach - although there would be no rain drops falling on this day, only tears of joy. "People love the stars," Baffert said. "I haven't seen this many people since she ran the last time." Her presence at Hollywood Park, along with a promotional Zen' bobblehead giveaway, helped attract a crowd of 12,232, significantly higher than the average of 4,200 over the three previous Sundays.

Zenyatta faced legitimate opponents in the Grade I Vanity Handicap to earn this record, while being burdened with significantly more saddle weight to carry. Under the race's handicap conditions, Zenyatta carried high weight of 129 pounds — nine to 17 more than her five rivals — because of her stellar record. The highest-weighted Vanity winners prior to Zenyatta were way back in the 1960's; champion Gamely carried 131 in 1968 and Silver Spoon won with 130 in 1960. "We're carrying a lot of weight and I just wanted to get that weight moving forward," jockey Mike Smith added, "so I tried to tip out as we came off the turn and use that momentum to kind of slingshot me even though I was a little wide, to get her at least running."

And ran she did, past Zardana (who previously had defeated Rachel Alexandra in her comeback at the Fair Grounds) and then past a begrudging St. Trinians near the wire, a graded stakes winner who was at her peak since recently defeating last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, Life Is Sweet. With the victory Zenyatta races past Hall of Fame members Citation and Cigar for consecutive win streak, although her record is even more special since she has yet to taste defeat.

In discussing her remaining pre-Breeders' Cup schedule, trainer John Shirreffs had the following to say. "How many times do you really want to cross the country," referring to the fact that the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November is Zenyatta's long-term goal. Thus, she will likely remain in California for one or possibly two more well-placed prep races. Then we could be treated to an epic Breeders' Cup Classic as four year-old Quality Road is back on a record-breaking streak of his own and last year's media darling Rachel Alexandra looked like her old self in romping by 10 lenghts in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs last weekend. If these great horses all stay sound and go postward in November that would certainly make up for the disappointing 2010 Triple Crown season. Stay tuned!

Personal Ensign belated tribute

2010-06-09T12:53:00.008-05:00

Personal Ensign died of natural causes on April 8th at age 26 at historic Claiborne Farm. The Phipps' family homebred daughter of Private Account out of the Hoist the Flag mare Grecian Banner will always be remembered as the Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion who went out on top after her 13th thrilling victory from as many starts, quite simply perfection. Thus, Personal Ensign is regarded as one of the greatest race mares of all-time. In fact, in a poll of "Greatest female race horse ever" I started last year during Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta's summer assault on horse racing, Rachel narrowly edged out Personal Ensign (7 to 6) with Ruffian also receiving a few votes but Zenyatta getting shut out (vote was prior to Breeders' Cup). I'm interested to see how these numbers may change at the conclusion to this year's season.

Personal Ensign's first of eight grade I wins came at age two, but she then was sidelined with a fractured pastern until September of her three year-old season (thus, no spring Classic attempts). Her four year-old season in 1988 was comparable to Rachel's Horse of the Year campaign last year in that she had 7 wins -- including beating the boys (Gulch) in The Whitney Handicap. Perhaps her '88 campaign was even better when you consider she competed in and won the year-end Breeders' Cup Distaff. In that career defining race at Churchill Downs, seemingly beaten on a sloppy track, Personal Ensign roared down the center of that long stretch under Randy Romero (who coincidentally will be enshrined into the Racing Hall of Fame this August at Saratoga, thanks to P.E.!) to catch the free-running Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, by a scant nose on the line. One of Tom Durkin's greatest race calls ever (check the Youtube video and tell me you don't have goose bumps!). And I believe she also would have been the overall Horse of the Year in 1988 had the much-hyped Alysheba not gotten slighted the year before after losing to Ferdinand by a nose in the Classic.

"She was a wonderful filly who overcame injury to win 13 straight races," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "She was certainly one of my all-time favorites. She was a career maker."

In addition to perfection ON the track, her accomplishments in the breeding shed far exceeded what most great race mares are able to produce through their progeny. Her first foal - Miner's Mark (not to be confused with the Kentucky 90 proof spirit) was a grade I winner and her second foal - the Mr. Prospector colt Our Emblem - is the sire of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. My Flag, the regal daughter of Easy Goer and Personal Ensign, won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her daughter Storm Flag Flying reproduced that effort with a win in the 2002 running. Another Personal Ensign colt, Traditionally, was a Grade I winner in 2001 and another daughter, Title Seeker, is the dam of yet another Grade II winner, Seeking the Title. This success led to her being named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 1996.

Along with Kentucky Derby winning fillies Genuine Risk and Winning Colors (who both passed away in 2008 - see archived tributes), Personal Ensign was the last anchor of the triangle that comprised the three best fillies over the last quarter century. That is, until our current string of femme fatals. Let's continue to wish Zenyatta and Rachel all the best to see if they are up to the challenge of capping their careers with as dramatic a finish as the graceful Personal Ensign!

Belmont wrap and current 3 year-old picture

2010-06-08T11:08:00.004-05:00

After Drosselmeyer captured the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes on Saturday, the Triple Crown Trail has finally ended with a resounding THUD (or should I say Dud!). Although always know for having potential with his breeding (I even had Drossel as high as #6 in my earliest Polls), it's clear to me that this unique distance was the only reason Drosselmeyer was able to notch this Grade I victory. He was soundly defeated by Belmont runner up Fly Down by six lengths in their local prep (Dwyer Stakes) for the Belmont -- which was run in a pedestrian 2:31.57. This year's Belmont time came in a full FOUR seconds slower than last years (granted, last year's winner Summer Bird was a better than average winner).

First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.

In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.

Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!

Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.

So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E

Lookin At Lucky finally gets his break at Pimlico

2010-06-08T09:48:00.008-05:00

What an interesting trip to the 2010 Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. Wanting to witness a Preakness Stakes in person at Pimlico Race Course before the Maryland Jockey Club likely moves the race to Laurel Park (due to financial woes as well as the decrepit state of the second oldest racing venue in these United States), my wife and I cheerily set out to the resting place of Edgar Allan Poe. I knew the trip was off to a good start when we came across Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey at the DFW airport as we both waited out extended weather delays. Jerry seemed to appreciate getting to "talk shop" about the next day's Preakness Stakes. Coincidentally, Jerry was flying back from visiting his father in El Paso and NOT heading northeast to Baltimore, as we were. And because of this exchange, I'll never beat myself up over my lousy picks again!

First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!

What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.

Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.

It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.

Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!

Preakness 135 Preview (and final Derby thoughts)

2010-05-04T15:37:00.011-05:00

Let me start with a preview of Saturday's Preakness Stakes since I'm giving myself a trip to Baltimore as my own birthday present (I was born on the day of the first Kentucky Derby ever run - May 17 - won by Aristides in 1875). I 've never witnessed The Preakness Stakes and with the uncertainty regarding the bankruptcy of the Magna-owned Pimlico Racecourse, I'm worried that I may not get many more chances, at least in its current structure. After a furious work schedule this week, I'm finally home and getting back to priority numero uno... redeeming myself from those piss-poor Derby picks!

We have only five returners from Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Several of the seven new shooters intrigue me, as horses such as Aikenite, Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist were all briefly listed on my Top 10 Derby list. Although, I'm not sure any of them have the talent to take home the Woodlawn Vase come Saturday. One horse that interested me in the final days leading up to The Derby - Paddy O'Prado - overcame a rough trip in The Derby to just get caught by Ice Box for 2nd place. My initial reaction to Desormeaux's poor ride in the final yards was also covered by beat writers, who likewise questioned "Squeaky's" ride. Rather than replacing him, trainer Dale Romans decided to keep him on the mount knowing that Kent will try extra special to prove his critics wrong by winning the Preakness. He is certainly a capable horse and his inherent speed should give him even more of an edge than Super Saver, who breaks to Paddy's inside by two stalls in post 8. Kent relishes the spoiler role and has a good position to sit just off Super Saver's flank, pushing him into a quicker pace and wearing him down in the stretch.

And if they do go quick up front, look for the California bred Caracortado to be moving best in the stretch. His upset could lead to a rare feat in Triple Crown racing by giving Maria's Mon the distinction of siring a Derby winner and being the broodmare sire of the Preakness winner in the same year. It's too bad this stallion passed away at a fairly young age and the owners won't be able to capitalize on Derby inflated stud fees, ala Birdstone from last year's three year-old crop. While I expect both Lookin At Lucky and Super Saver to run well, there's no use taking a short-priced horse in what is clearly an average group of sophomores.

I've had to answer my own critics regarding my faulty pace prediction in The Derby, but I'm convinced something weird was going on with that wet-sealed track after watching the replay a few more times. I've never seen front-runners stop as severely as Conveyance and Sidney's Candy "spit the bit" and fairly early into the turn, at that. These two horses are the reason Lookin At Lucky, Paddy and Ice Box had to check multiple times in the stretch as they were avoiding the horse's rapid retreats. Perhaps the worst betting strategy, however, was that of playing the "slop" angle, even though most of these young colts (and filly) had yet to even test an off track. Consider the comments by veteran turf writer, Steve Haskin, in his blog @ http://www.bloodhorse.com/: "Stately Victor, who, based on his pedigree, could actually improve off his dominating victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on Polytrack. If there is a better bred horse for the slop, we haven’t seen him. His sire, Ghostzapper , earned a spectacular 128 Beyer figure in the slop at Monmouth, winning the Iselin Handicap (gr. III) by 10 3/4 lengths. Ghostzapper’s sire, Awesome Again , was two-for-two in the slop, winning the Jim Dandy (gr. II) by three lengths and a Churchill Downs allowance race by seven lengths."

Yes, Super Saver had won on the slop as a 2YO (which he was supposed to at odds-on), but Paddy O'Prado finished 7th last year in his only run over a wet track, yet he appeared to relish the spatter. And while I'm diverting blame, let me add the NBC telecast to the list. How many times could you possibly show the "Shemp" looking schmuck with the briefcase? Yes, I know he bet his $100,000 on Super Saver and won nearly a million bucks due to this, but I would have preferred a live shot of the WinStar Farm owners (remember ABC's emotional exchange between Frances Genter and Carl Nafzger when Unbridled won the roses in 1990?) or Todd Pletcher as he watched the finish and not when he was walking alone through the paddock. At least they let it roll for the full Donna Barton-Brothers and Calvin Borel exchange on horseback. Calvin, maybe you will win the Triple Crown this year, but come Saturday I'll be rooting for a Paddy-Caracortado exacta. Erin go Bragh!

Kentucky Derby 136 goes to Super Saver and Calvin Borel

2010-05-01T21:49:00.006-05:00

Initial thoughts... damn, that was over so fast. Unfortunately, NBC sports didn't show most of the split times, but it seemed like Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were zipping along at a pretty solid clip. I will eat a little crow and admit I thought the pace would be a bit slower, although I'm not sure what the effect of a wet-sealed track had on fractions. Smarty Jones (who stalked in 3rd/4th) won in 2004 on an "off" track that Lion Heart controlled the splits of 22.99, 46.73, 1:11.80, 1:37.35, 2:04.06, yet continued to finish well for the place. Today's fractional times of 22.63, 46.16, 1:10.58, 1:37.65 and 2:04.45 were comparable other than the 6 furlong time which was about a full second faster and likely caused the two front-runners to burn out in the stretch. Also, the sealed track seemed to be favoring closers for much of the day as several strong favorites that typically run on or near the lead fizzled out. But Calvin Bo-rel was able to relax Super Saver enough to keep him 6th for the first six furlongs with a ground saving rail trip before passing Conveyance en route to Borel's third Derby victory in four years. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. How bout the fact that he still calls everyone 'sir' or 'ma'm' even though Bob Costas is shorter than he is?! And Todd Pletcher finally gets the monkey off his back.

The filly Devil May Care ran a big race before tiring in mid-stretch, as did Noble's Promise, who looked like a winner turning for home. Very poor showings by 5th choice Awesome Act and well-backed Mission Impazible and Stately Victor, who never threatened. The relatively unknown Paddy O'Prado ran a big one to just get nipped at the wire for second and the real shocker of the day was the last horse to get in, Make Music for Me, which sparked a $202,000 superfecta! One of these years I'll hopefully hit one this nice!

I'll tell you one thing, Lookin at Lucky was anything but "lucky" for a second race in a row - typical from a #1 post position - and will be my pick if they choose to run him back in the Preakness Stakes. Depending on the pace scenario, I don't think Ice Box will be as effective at Pimlico Race Course in two weeks. Most of the other horses in the race have a plausible excuse with the wet sealed track, which may actually discourage many trainers from running back in two weeks. I will be there for the Preakness this year so it wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Borel's prediction comes true - he said he wants to "get it done" this year for the Triple Crown... stay tuned!

Kentucky Oaks - Blind Luck's last to first victory

2010-04-30T18:37:00.007-05:00

What a rousing start to Derby weekend with heavy favorite (and yet another Oaklawn Park graduate) Blind Luck ridden confidently by Rafael Bejarano from dead last to first by the slimmest of margins on the line. I never thought she would get there in time considering the slow fractions of the race. But clearly the Churchill strip was still a tad thick from the rains earlier in the week. A similar slow pace led to another shocking defeat of Rachel Alexandra earlier in the race card. After Rachel shared the dawdling pace of :24.79, :48.81 and 1:12.53 (all at least a full second slower than her remarkably consistent splits from last year), she still couldn't hold off the stalker Unrivaled Belle through the stretch, losing by a headbob. Based on Steve Asmussen's definition of running her "only if I was sure she was going to win," I don't see how they could even return her to the track with a pretty salty mare division shaping up this season. But I digress.

Speaking of rain, even though there are forecasts for rain about every three years on Derby day (yet it rarely leads to a "sloppy" or "muddy" track), it appears that this year may be the real deal with flash flooding alerts Saturday and Sunday for Louisville. Several people told me today that they listened to the radio and DJs were talking about betting the mudders. In my opinion, this is about the most over-hyped betting angle for this particular race, since most of these horses have never even ran on an off surface and many others have run as much on synthetics and/or turf as dirt. So this angle may apply better to a race for older horses who have multiple races on an "off" track to sample from. Regardless, this will surely impact the wagering as many "average joes" will be betting this race rather than your hard core New Yorker OTB bookie.

Take a peak at how the odds have already been affected by the first day of action for The Derby...

Kentucky Derby advance-wagering odds:

(No., Horse, Odds)
1. Lookin At Lucky, 9-1
2. Ice Box, 11-1
3. Noble's Promise, 21-1
4. Super Saver, 7-1
5. Line of David, 15-1
6. Stately Victor, 16-1
7. American Lion, 25-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 18-1
9. Make Music for Me, 25-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 11-1
11. Devil May Care, 11-1
12. Conveyance, 25-1
13. Jackson Bend, 22-1
14. Mission Impazible, 24-1
15. Discreetly Mine, 41-1
16. Awesome Act, 13-1
17. Dublin, 21-1
18. Backtalk, 20-1
19. Homeboykris, 17-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 11-1
Total win pool, $340,544

As you can see, there are some juicy odds out there and multiple overlays with expected favorites. But even a better indication than current pari-mutuel win pool is the established Oaks-Derby double pool, where the professional gamblers have already tipped their cards. The win pools seem to be the preferred choice of the locals who came out today and made all their Derby bets since they will sell their boxes for Derby Day for tens of thousands of dollars. Thus, the first day odds are usually atypical of the core betting patterns. (It seems like local hero General Quarters was a favorite last yeat at this time.) In the "smart money" camp, the favorites (in order) are Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver and Ice Box. Keep this in mid as you make your selections tomorrow.

Until then, as Robin Leach used to say, "may you have 'mint julep' kisses and 'Derby pie' dreams...

Derby week 136 - Finally Friday

2010-04-29T21:39:00.005-05:00

It’s go time, baby… “Go, Baby, Go” reads the NTRA ad slogan and we’ll all be yelling that come Saturday around 5:15pm CST. I’ve watched as many replays as I can possibly watch and my eyes are bloodshot from straining in front of small print race charts and the computer screen. My dogs are barking at me to take them out, so I’ve gotta wrap this up. I must confess that I have spent more time on the betting side of the Derby this year than researching all the human interest stories out there. (Actually, I haven’t “studied” this much since taking the CFP exam years ago.) I am still bitter about that F’ing Mine That Bird last year costing me a stone-cold trifecta. I’m overdue for a winner, not having dinged the register since my Funny Cide overlay in 2003. That’s another thing about these odds to watch out for. I think Churchill Down’s handicapper – Mike Battaglia – sets some piss-poor early odds, which unfortunately has a major impact on betting strategies. The best advice I ever got was that if you’re going to lose your own money, you should at least pick who YOU think will win, not what someone else tells you!

I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.

After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]

Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.

Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”

My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!

So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!

Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.

Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.

E

Derby week trivia - Post Positions

2010-04-28T22:11:00.008-05:00

Quite an ironic post position draw yesterday in that the two betting favorites in a seemingly wide open Derby drew the worst positions, see below. Many feel that the one hole is the worst spot but I can't help but think Sidney's Candy would be better off at the rail to save the ground, knowing he figures to be very close to the pace early and that there are 10 furlongs for him to maneuver around a horse or two, rather than being forced minimum 4 wide around the first turn. But the year Big Brown's camp chose the 20 post (while a couple other options were still available) people preached doom and gloom and he managed to get a fairly easy stalking trip only four wide. Several winners have come from the 15-20 post auxiliary gate over the past decade, so I guess anything is possible. Here's a look at the posts with odds, for your convenience:

1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1

Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.

This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.

Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!

Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.

If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!

Derby week trivia - Wednesday

2010-04-27T21:57:00.007-05:00

Hump day during Derby week means two things in the Kordsmeier household; 1) post position draw and first glimpse at odds for The Derby, and 2) time to brew and age the “not-so-simple” mint infused syrup for Saturday’s Derby party. As is customary, the bartender will get an initial sample while the fermentation process takes place… very helpful when plotting hundreds of statistical samples (my own monte carlo simulation, if you will) of possible pace scenarios based on post positions. Now are you getting a sense of why I love The Derby so?

On the training front, Churchill Downs has been muddy for the last several days, forcing most of the entrants to have their last major workout on an "off" track. On Tuesday, Awesome Act drilled 4 furlongs in :48 1/5 on the slop and the expected pacesetter - Conveyance zipped 5 furlongs in :59 4/5. Inspired by these workouts, I laced up the New Balance's and labored 4 miles in :36 (errr, check that - 36 minutes!) on the Katy Trail and I was blowing hard after the work until I cooled down with a refreshing Coors Light. Have I mentioned the mint juleps?

I came across the following from the website representing thoroughbred racing, www.ntra.com, and thought you may also get a kick out of this. I’ve often stated that the months of March and April are the best months for sports fans, as we welcome back America’s pastime to the diamond (especially for Cubs fans!), NCAA college hoops are in full effect and potential Derby superstars are being formed every Saturday. This writer parallels the Derby experience with March Madness…

Top 5 reasons Triple Crown series beats March Madness by Eric Wing, NTRA Media Relations (with my emphasis added):
1. Sometimes our 16-seeds actually win. (Butler came really close this year, but Mine That Bird and Giacomo have actually taken our top prize.)

2. Our grand finale is better than yours. (The greatest two minutes in sports, bar none! And we have longer off-seasons to recover from the stress and common letdown after the Belmont - especially if we backed losers.)

3. Our "coaches" haven't forgotten how to compete with dignity. (Well, barring the Rick Dutrow and Big Brown circus of 2008 I would agree with this statement. Trainers like Baffert and Lukas have added more class as they have aged. Derby favorites such as Nafzger and Zito have always been great ambassadors for the sport.)

4. Our sport doesn't pretend that betting isn't going on. (Amen to that, brother! Many states with lotteries boast of the “economic impact” from the lottery on jobs, education funding, etc. How about the impact of the thoroughbred industry? Even at independent tracks such as Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, seasonal employment and the tourism industry swell thanks to the gambling juice (ranging from 13% on straight win-place-show bets to 20% on exotics such as exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s) that finance purse money, which in turn gives owners payback on their investment to pay the jockeys cut as well as training fees for their entire staff. It also doesn’t hurt that some people hit “paydirt” each year in The Derby. I’ll never forget in 2005 when long-shots Giacomo and Closing Argument ran first and second that sparked a superfecta that paid over $1.7 million! For the record, that was more than the owner’s (Jerry Moss of Zenyatta fame) share of the purse money for winning The Derby!)

5. Some Triple Crown TV correspondents can conduct interviews while on horseback. (I particularly enjoy the last point. What’s greater than seeing Donna Barton-Brothers or Caton Bredar with mane flying in their face capturing the first emotional exchange with the jockey who has just captured the greatest feat in sports, perhaps for the first time?!)

Trivia answer from yesterday is: “My name is Darrell, but you can call me D”… hit it Run. As a youngster, Darrell Wayne Lukas was the first person I “knew” that carried his first initial. It always struck me as odd. I even call him “D. Wayne” when I occasionally get close enough to him at a track to tell my wife I had a conversation with D. Wayne. Then I discovered that many more folks did this, from P. Allan Smith to J. Paul Getty, L. Ron Hubbard to P. Diddy. There’s something about this method that resonates with me. It seems to me that in a subliminal way it may help people become well known and move up in the world to achieve great fortune and fame. I think I’ll name my first racehorse bought at auction “A. Super Star” so he will have a better chance on the track, especially if his sire happens to be Super Saver! By the way, for those horse novices, Todd Pletcher plied his trade under “the master” D. Wayne (who started his Derby career with an equally pathetic 0 for 12 before busting out with a filly – Winning Colors ‘88) for 7 years before going out on his own, and look at him now!

Derby week trivia 136 - Tuesday

2010-04-26T20:34:00.008-05:00

More drama from the Pletcher camp on Monday as he calls an audible and pulls out WinStar Farm's speedster Rule. This will definitely have an impact on the pace of The Derby, which many astute handicappers are calling for blistering early fractions. I'll give you my perspective on likely pace scenario on Friday when I pick my top 3 selections. However, in yanking Rule (watch how this horse tired in the FL Derby at 9 furlongs and I say this was a good move!) Todd replaced him with his filly, Devil May Care.

Until recently, I would have easily discounted the filly's entry. I backed the monster filly Excellent Meeting in the 1999 Derby (Charismatic) and although she finished a respectable 5th it discouraged me from betting fillies in this particular race. Hence, no winning tickets when Eight Belles ran a courageous second to Big Brown in 2008. I was shocked as Rags to Riches out-muscled Champion Curlin down the lane in the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes. But for the record, I did key Rachel Alexandra in last year’s Preakness Stakes when she was clearly superior. (Sidebar: Rachel is working up a storm and will be running on Friday's Kentucky Oaks undercard -- not that I'm paying attention to a Jess Jackson owned horse!) But these fillies had dominated their division and each strung together a solid series of prep races. Devil May Care, on the other hand, beat only 5 fillies at Gulfstream Park in her only victory this year, while running a dull 5th in her seasonal bow at the Fairgrounds. Someone out there please comment on why I should be afraid of the Devil in my exotics.

The answer to yesterday's trivia question was Eddie Delahoussaye, the original cajun bush track extraordinaire jockey who paved the way (along with Randy Romero) for current greats including Kent "squeaky" Desourmeaux, Robby Albarado (of Curlin fame) and Calvin Bo-rel, who garnered the most votes. I guess there is something to the recency effect, since Calvin has been front and center since his Derby triumph aboard Street Sense in '07 and obviously with Mine That Bird last year. Of course, Ron Turcotte was the other jockey to win consecutive runnings when he piloted Penny Chenery's Riva Ridge to Derby glory in 1972 followed by his lesser-known stablemate in '73, Secretariat (just kidding -- by the way, get ready for Diane Lane's portrayal of the first woman of racing in the motion picture "Secretariat" coming to a theatre near you on Oct. 8, 2010).

Eskenderaya to miss Derby... Derby week 136 kickoff!

2010-04-25T08:52:00.014-05:00

Derby week officially began Sunday morning with the typical drama we have come to expect in the craziness that is... The Derby. And for the second year in a row I will be losing my "lock - cinch - key" horse about one week before they were set to run, as Quality Road was sent packing on Monday of Derby week last year with a quarter crack. The extent of Big E's injury wasn't well known, just the following comments by Pletcher, "He's got some filling. We're not sure of the extent of what we re dealing with. But he's not going to run." You know this has to get Todd questioning why the horse racing gods are so much against him, as his many other runners figure to be mid-priced horses that would be a tall task to get the monkey off his back. (Speaking of course, of his 0 for 24 record in the big dance.)

On Saturday the Derby Trial was run as a last hope resort to get some graded earnings to put a few of the "bubble" horses in the top 20 list. However, favored Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince's chances were dashed when longshot Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel took the top spot on a day when Borel posted five winners at Churchill Downs. At this rate, the best handicapping strategy may be to bet Borel's horse every race, including Super Saver in The Derby. After all, he has won two out of the last three runnings! My one-time tout, Aikenite, rallied for the place and now has the earnings to make the field, but team Dogwood has said they will not wheel back in just one week for The Derby.

I have been subdued for most of my Sunday, struggling with the thought of a potential superstar not getting the opportunity to etch his place in history. Last year I had a solid backup plan with Pioneerof The Nile, this year not so much. Perhaps I'll be able to build back some confidence while pouring through past performances and breeding nicks this week. The most profound impact of this defection will be on the betting schemes in the world's greatest betting race. My "budget" for Saturday just got exponentially larger since I'll now be using 3 or 4 horses in the first position of my exotic part-wheels. But those who were hoping to somehow beat Big E are very upset about this, since huge flows towards him would have boosted the wager pools and payouts if he ran out of the money. Now, all that money will flow to the next tier of favorites and water down those payouts.

Please note the trivia question on the left margin -- go ahead and try your luck (no one knows who's guess is right or wrong!). Happy Derby Week 136, our 14th year of Derby trivia!

Eric

Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap

2010-04-14T17:06:00.007-05:00

Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.

My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."

1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).

2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.

3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.

4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.

5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.

6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)

7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!

8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.

9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!

10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.

Zenyatta struts to sweet 16th win; ties Cigar and Citation's mark

2010-04-10T09:30:00.008-05:00

Zenyatta looked like a schoolgirl on a playground at Oaklawn Park on a sun-drenched Friday afternoon. Let's forget about the fact that she's ginormous (I heard a wide range in sizes from the "casual" race fans near my perch on the rail), but she really looked like she was having a big time as she was prancing her front hooves during the post parade and hamming it up for her legion of fans armed with cameras. During the race, her head was erect for more than half of the race as she was frolicking at the rear of the small pack down the backstretch while others were put into stiff drives by their jockeys, heads low and ears pinned back. As if Mike Smith decided to finally let Zenyatta "come out and play," he gave her a bit of rein as she swooped to the front on the turn and was already on the lead straightening for the drive, uncharacteristic for Big Z at that point in the race. Of course, the rest is history, as she was never pushed or challenged in the stretch even though the opening fractions were very slow, yet she still posted a decent final time of 1:50 3/5, which should compare favorably to the Arkansas Derby horses going postward today.

This was not only a homecoming for team Zenyatta, who's victory in the 2008 Apple Blossom in only her fourth start really made her a national name fairly early in her streak -- much like Cigar when he captured the Oaklawn handicap in the 6th victory in his streak of 16 consecutive wins. But Mike Smith also was based at Oaklawn Park decades ago and was very gracious to the 44,973 men, women and a lot of children who played hooky to witness greatness as he cantered her back up the stretch before returning to her customary spot in the winner's circle, much like a baseball slugger taking a curtain call. Mike waved to the crowd and pointed to the gentle giant underneath, signaling that it was she who deserves all the credit. Along those lines, another shout out to Jerry and Ann Moss, the owners who were willing to bring her back to Oaklawn in spite of "that other" no-show and a purse reduction from $5 million to $500,000.

All in all, an enjoyable day at the races with most of those casual racegoers packed into the stands to be entertained. Zenyatta did not disappoint. I didn't even mind spending 9 hours in the car for a few hours at the track, playing hooky on a Friday afternoon, hanging out with my brother and the Big Z. Thanks for the memories, Zenyatta.

April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update

2010-03-29T15:40:00.008-05:00

Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.

3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.

4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.

5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.

6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.

7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.

8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.

9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!

10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.

Rebel Stakes recap and first "final" Derby prep this Saturday

2010-03-18T21:44:00.004-05:00

It's hard to believe that just one week after the return to the track of several top 10 Derby prospects, a few will be making their last tune-up race in Saturday's Florida Derby, six weeks from the "big dance" (it is NCAA March madness after all!).

I've been chomping at the bit to discuss Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where I met up with a raucous crowd that is sure to become the next big annual event. What a perfect weekend in Hot Springs, when the dogwoods were yielding their virgin blooms and the track was abuzz with electricity, which would ultimately be unplugged with the shocking loss of Rachel A. later in the day. Lookin At Lucky "looks" like a champion, well maybe because he was last year's two year-old champion. But what I mean is that I can clearly see him in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May with the familiar silver haired Bob Baffert high fiving his beer drinking owner friend, Mike Pegram, in the same silks as Sssshhhhh, Real Quiet, claimed The Derby with back in 1998. Let's hope this first race off the shelf won't take too much out of the champ. And how about that Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise? What a game effort in defeat in also his first effort of 2010. Although, I still get leary with the top of his bloodline since he seems to be coming up a tad short in all of his distance races. Dublin really disappointed me in that I thought this would be his break-out race. While he did make a big move approaching the turn, he flattened out into the stretch which also leads me to believe his best distance is 7 furlongs to one mile.

At Santa Anita they had a bit of an upset with Sidney's Candy (recall brother Chocolate Candy from last spring?) and Interactif taking the win-place over Caracortado and American Lion. Meanwhile at the Tampa Bay Derby it was an ugly race with the top four horses - including my Super Saver - trading places all around the racetrack. Many people are jumping on the winner's - Odysseus - bandwagon, but I'm not sure about this one even after his 15 length romp leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither or these races impressed me near as much as the Rebel, and the Beyer speed figures back me up on this one.

This Derby is shaping up with more speed than any of recent memory. I'm not talking about the blazing speed of Songandaprayer or Smoke Glacken, but rather many of the top prospects seem hell bent on getting the lead and trying to dictate pace. Perhaps it seems this way since Todd Pletcher trains about half of this year's three year-olds! But seriously, did anyone else see Super Saver's race at Tampa and watch that horse spurt away from the field in the opening strides, only to lose by a length at the wire? Having natural or tactical speed is one thing, but I'll never understand gunning a horse to the front in a 9 furlong race. Oh well, the point of all this is that I am giving particular consideration to those who are comfortable having some dirt splashed in their face and routinely pick up horses in the stretch. I feel somewhat burned last year with Friesan Fire (even though Pioneerof the Nile was my top pick with a nice place finish) after he broke poorly and was thus "Brooks & Dunn" due to his running style.

Without further delay, here is my latest and greatest top 10 list heading into the Florida Derby; two defections with American Lion and Dublin.

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial for better spacing leading into Louisville.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt.

3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time.

4) Rule - Speedball now the likely favorite for the Florida Derby this Saturday. Perhaps the six weeks will keep his tempo level.

5) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to 'Lucky.

6) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give one more try.

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Truest closer of the bunch!

9) Radiohead - This diminutive lead pony comes from the same connections as Big Brown. Clearly, this one is not being doped up by Rick Dutrow, but he recently wore down much larger horses in a 1 mile race at Gulfstream and may upset in the Florida Derby.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Be sure to update your WinStar Farm Fantasy Stable for the three horse addition by tomorrow if you haven't already. I'd use Radiohead in that pool as a sleeper!

Jess Jackson pulls plug on Rachel in Apple Blossom for second time

2010-03-15T21:22:00.007-05:00

After being in Hot Springs for the weekend to witness a riveted 50th edition of the Rebel Stakes (blog to follow later in week), I have some advice for billionaire wine magnate Jess Jackson. Stay the hell out of Hot Springs for the foreseeable future. On second thought, stay entirely out of the state of Arkansas for a really long time. Bert the cabbie hates your freakin' guts. As does Billy the bellman at Arlington Park. Sue the waitress at Hester's restaurant called you a really despicable name and my nephew Daniel Lee thinks you are a scaredy-cat. And I think they all have a right in their opinion considering you cost many of these people the most lucrative payday in their careers. And that's saying something at Billy's age!

Of course, I'm speaking of his decision to withdraw Rachel from the Oaklawn showdown with Zenyatta in 4 weeks that Charles Cella had previously moved back to accomodate him! During my time in the Spa City (of the south, anyway) I polled those in service trades what their expected financial impact would be from the "Race for the Ages" and if they believed the race would actually happen. To my astonishment, none believed the race WOULDN'T happen! Typically responses were, "What are you talkin' bout? They done already said they were gonna race here!" Might sound a tad naive, but in the Natural state a man is only as good as his word.

Yep, they were already counting their money from the 100,000 or so additional horse lovers expected to come from all corners of the land. Rumors (some perhaps true, others exaggerated) swirled about "the sheik" who tried to reserve the entire Arlington hotel but had to settle for another hotel off the strip and many lake houses being booked for $200,000 for the weekend. Stories of Oaklawn seats and boxes selling for up to 5 times the price of season seats! Many of these transactions were already consummated, but for most of the mom and pop businesses their revenue depends on actual headcount and that will surely drop after the dream match is history.

And what about the announcement from Jess Jackson, "While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule." This doesn't resemble an apology as much as it hints at ire towards Oaklawn Park for "rushing the devolopment" of last year's wonder horse, Rachel Alexandra. Rather than expressing regret to the fans and to Charles Cella, owner of Oaklawn Park, for his multiple commitments and then going back on his word he reminds us all through "just as I had anticipated" he is some form of oracle who is to be praised for his wisdom. It's yet another example of how his ego is actually turning people against one of the greatest racehorses of this or any eras. Much like it went down with Curlin a couple of years ago after his synthetic flop in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. The pattern is a trail of excuses with Jess Jackson, just as he had laid them out even before Rachel's New Orleans Ladies classic defeat.

What is most unfortunate is that this news is further distraction to the real story that is ZENYATTA. Oaklawn's press release reminded me that Zenyatta (who still plans on racing in the Apple Blossom, by the way, in spite of its reduced 500K purse without Rachel's presence) will be trying to equal Cigar and Citation's U.S. record of 16 consecutive unrestricted race wins. This is an incredible achievement that at the time of Cigar's record in 1996 many believed would be harder to accomplish than another triple crown champion. So don't think that the crowd will be any less jubilant in seeing a deserving champion, albeit smaller in numbers. The only thing Arkansans enjoy better than a good day at the track is Razorback football and the Hogs are out of season. I know I will be thrilled to see "Big Zen" for a third time, especially after pushing around the Grade I field in the stretch of the Santa Margarita (the race, not the drink) in California. Just don't expect those in attendance to be celebrating on race day with any Kendall Jackson wines!

Cheers.
Eric

Derby Top 10 Ranking #2

2010-02-28T19:48:00.003-06:00

Sorry for the delay in posting... I've had 5 trips over the past two weeks. However, one of those was well worth the travel time as I saw Eskendereya crush a solid Fountain of Youth field in North Miami Beach. Gulfstream Park has been getting their share of talented three year-olds the past few years (Barbaro '06 and Big Brown '08) but neither were this impressive! What I like the most about a performance like this is that it occured with typical pace figures for the split times, meaning it very likely can be duplicated. We'll see if he keeps his A game in the Florida Derby in three weeks.

I was actually at Gulfstream to see a friend and co-contributor to my blog in previous years, Clay Sanders, who's racing syndicate saddled Positive Split to a 7th place finish in the FOY after chasing the Big E for 7 furlongs. Note to you handicappers: P' Split will be dangerous in future races at a mile or less at a nice price!

Three of my previous top 10 colts have still yet to run this season, so I'll keep them on the tally albeit with lower ranks. I'm only discarding one - #3 Buddy's Saint - due to his no-show as the 9-5 favorite, although there is no doubt his chances were compromised having to check mightily into the first turn. Still, I begrudgingly had him listed in the first place and now have an "excuse" to add another Oaklawn runner - Dublin. Here's my new top 10 as of March 1st:

1) Eskendereya - Big plus was his early January one mile allowance race, which will give him 3 races under his belt (all dirt) heading into Churchill. Looking for a first or second in the FL Derby.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a ho-hum work but Baffert knows when to crank them up.

3) Super Saver - Pletcher charge now likely to debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel... yes!

4) Dublin - Huge move for 2nd in Southwest Stakes for speedy son of Afleet Alex, who I believe was a superb three year-old colt. Perfect style for Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and has been tearing up Oaklawn Park in works all year long now that he can actually breathe!

5) American Lion - I'm leaving him in original spot after dueling with Tiz Chrome and getting passed in stretch over Santa Anita synthetic surface that truly favors closers. Fastest time of the meet at 1 1/16 miles.

6) Rule - Grandson of 200o Derby winner Fu-Peg has stamina in breeding. Question is can they harness his speed in the Lane's End?

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Apparently, he's a head case, but weren't we all at that age?!

9) Noble's Promise - Speedy bullet work gearing up for 2010 debut in Florida.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Happy Racing!

Err... check that, Rachel now back on for modified Apple Blossom

2010-02-18T13:07:00.004-06:00

Of course, one day after I posted my scathing article towards Jess Jackson, he and Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella came to terms on pushing back the Apple Blossom by 6 days. It was previously announced that for the first time the distance will be extended from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, something I feel will benefit Zenyatta as the distance goes further. But clearly Rachel has demonstrated she can get that distance as she covered 1 3/16 miles en route to her Preakness victory against Mine That Bird and others last summer.

Along those lines, both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta had a published workout this morning... Rachel a more decisive 5 furlong move at the Fair Grounds in 1:00 1/5 and Zenyatta went 6 panels in 1:14 over the Pro-Ride (synthetic) surface at Hollywood Park. Both plan to race March 13th as a prep for Oaklawn's "Race for the Ages." Now that it appears that they will meet on the track, I have nothing further to say on the matter at this time.

However, I will have another 2010 Derby trail post tomorrow in anticipation of my Fountain of Youth trip, so please stay tuned!
E

Rachel withdrawn from Oaklawn's "Race for the Ages" versus Zenyatta

2010-02-11T08:31:00.004-06:00

More double talk coming from team Rachel, consisting of owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen. Yesterday evening Asmussen made the following comment, "Out of respect for the level of competition and the importance of this race, I have told Mr. Jackson it was not in the best interest of the horse to race on April 3... the earliest we could have a prep race would be the middle of March. It is then not fair to Rachel to ask her to race again three weeks later." That's funny, becasue that's exactly what Zenyatta is planning to do by running in the Santa Margarita (Grade 1) in California and then ship to Oaklawn for a return in the Apple Blossom just three weeks later.

What made matters worse is Jackson's attempt to create a side story rather than just coming out and saying they would take on Zenyatta down the road. "We have been in discussions with Alex Waldrop, president of (the NTRA), with the hope of coordinate training schedules, racing schedules, purses and all ancillary factors, so that we can all agree upon three dates and three venues for what will be a racing series to rival the Triple Crown." The problem is that this statement is either a flat out lie or he's trying to lobby the NTRA for tracks and distances that suit Rachel the best before bringing Moss to the negotiating table. Moss told the AP, "I have no idea what he's even talking about. Which three races? And where? And when?"

So let me get this straight... a three month notice at a neutral dirt track where both horses have previously raced and won and the legendary track owner Charels Cella ponying up $5 million with a guaranteed payout for each horse isn't enough for you, Mr. Jackson? Somehow now you think you can come to terms on a 3 race series with all kind of factors at play when you won't accept the red carpet from Oaklawn Park? Seems to me this "deal" in fact will never get done and you'll try to blame Jerry Moss, who obviously doesn't want anything to do with you.

The best quote of all came from Moss, "It's a shame they are not going to show up for that race." That's what this really boils down to and frankly, I appreciate the direct talk from Jerry on this one. But as I've said before in previous blogs, you can only duck the Big Z for so long now that you are the hunted. Moss will be looking at every possible entry you make. And if you stick with the New York tracks all summer in shorter distance races, that's a clear statement you want no part of Zenyatta. I would expect Arlington Park in Chicago to try to lure these two for a summer date, perhaps co-featuring Arlington Million day. This is a neutral dirt track with a solid reputation and history of making a splash -- created the "Citation Challenge" for Cigar's 16th consecutive victory in 1996.

Or, I could be wrong (has happened on one other occasion) and a three race series will come to fruition. But in this format I would think at least one race would have to occur in California over synthetics, which I can't see Jess agreeing to. Wouldn't it be fun to watch these two (and other supporting cast) race at Belmont over dirt, at Del Mar over synthetics with perhaps even a turf race thrown in to see what would actually happen rather than continuing to debate? But none of this dreaming can take place while Jess Jackson is running scared.

2010 Derby Trail

2010-02-08T16:07:00.003-06:00

In just under three months a new Derby champ will be crowned. And there's a strong probability that horse has yet to race this calendar year. So there is a lot that can - and will - happen on this Derby trail, just as there is every year. But I wanted to get the chatter started before this weekend's first series of major regional prep races go postward (Robert Lewis @ Santa Anita and Sam Davis Stakes @ Tampa Bay on Saturday followed by the Southwest Mile @ Oaklawn and San Vicente @ SA on Monday).

In addition to posting wrap-ups each Monday following the major 3YO racing weekends leading up to Derby 136, I will also launch my top 10 Derby colts. Since I had a friend in Vegas for the Super Bowl, I studied up over the weekend to place a few futures bets (thanks J-Bern!). So without further delay, let's get Derby season 136 crancked up...

1) Lookin At Lucky - I got on Pioneerof The Nile early last year and rode him to a solid 2nd place Derby finish. Baffert is looking good again with this versatile colt and looks to follow his proven formula of 2 Derby preps while getting a peak effort on the first Saturday in May.

2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."

3) Buddy's Saint - Seems to be the "it" horse but perhaps a little early in the game. I'm waiting to see if he can duplicate those Big A performances (the quirky Aqueduct track historically leads to huge margins of victory) at Gulfstream. But after yesterday's game, who dat talkin bout beatin dem Saints?!

4) Jackson Bend - Backed up his Calder domination with a nice place in the Holy Bull. We'll see if his obscure breeding can hold up through the Derby grind.

5) American Lion - One of many live runners for the WinStar Farms group from Dallas. His presidential name is certainly worthy of being engraved on The Derby trophy.

6) Drosselmeyer - Speaking of names, this guy gets my vote - sounds like an old fraternity nickname of mine. Has a solid race foundation and a proven sire in Distorted Humor (Funny Cide in 2003).

7) Eskendereya - Yikes, don't make me say this name! Been running against the best and from the potent Storm Cat - Seattle Slew lines. Familiar silks of owner Zayat, who had Pioneerof The Nile last year.

8) Rule - Front running type, so who knows if he can learn to harness his speed. But Pletcher places an emphasis on speed and may have a plan for this one.

9) Noble's Promise - Well traveled McPeek charge never has run a bad one, including a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.

10) Connemara - A lovely western Ireland region where Atlantic salmon, Guinness and craic are as common as railbirds at a New York racetrack. The horse is a fairly talented runner in California. I visited this place on my honeymoon and if he were to win The Derby, I've the funds for a return trip. Erin Go Bragh!

Rachel reigns supreme, but for how long?

2010-01-21T12:37:00.004-06:00

In the most anticipated Eclipse Award Horse of the Year vote in decades, Rachel Alexandra went to the front in the vote tally and never looked back, holding off Zenyatta's late season surge by a tally of 130-99. Rachel won in each of the three entities that comprise the Eclipse votes (turf writers of America, DRF, and NTRA racing secretaries/Equibase charters), which went contrary to many fan polls and NTRA rankings leading up to Monday's ceremonies.

Perhaps the biggest racing news of the week, however, was Zenyatta's owners declaring she will return to racing in 2010 after all. What a brilliant PR move as this totally flips their previous position of "ducking" Rachel and other talent outside of California. Now the hunter (Rachel) becomes the hunted and this puts tremendous pressure on Jess Jackson to take on Zenyatta in 2010. Take a look at Jerry Moss' comments below...

“They have a great horse,” Moss told TVG afterward. “Some day we'll meet, and we'll decide at that time who's best. I'm looking forward to the encounter. … We'll see what they're entering in, and we'll be alongside them in the gate. When she's ready, we'll look for a race that's right for her. Hopefully Rachel will show up. If she doesn't, we'll look at what Rachel is doing and see if it's about time we met.”

And as if that wasn't clear enough, he went on... "She's perfect," Moss said of Zenyatta. "Nobody beat her on the racetrack. They beat her by proxy." Moss said he "wouldn't trade places with anybody" and that he was "looking forward" to having Zenyatta meet Rachel Alexandra on the track.

Wow, talk about a racing salvo!! And guess what, it's working. Moss announced that Zenyatta would be pointed to the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park (her previous lone start outside of California) in early April, knowing that Asmussen uses Oaklawn as a spring base where Rachel ran twice in 2009. When Jess Jackson was later asked to respond to Moss' comments, here's the best he could muster; “We’re hoping that each horse, taking its course, may win their way to an ultimate match, and maybe we can work toward that.”

This quote doesn't quite elicit the same confidence he showed last year in dragging Rachel all over the east coast, while picking up stakes victory after victory against any foe who dared to enter against his "Iron Maiden." When pressed on a potential head to head race at Oaklawn park, he (not the actual trainer, Asmussen, mind you) suggested that Rachel had lost training days at The Fair Grounds in New Orleans due to rain and may not be able to make that start. That's interesting considering that race is still three months away and Rachel has routinely been jogging on the track, although she hasn't yet resumed any timed training workouts. Steve Asmussen had previously commented how he would like to get an easy prep race at the Fair Grounds prior to the Oaklawn race. So who knows when Rachel will get back to the track from her long winter's nap (she last raced September 5). But one thing appears certain, whenever and wherever Rachel does return Zenyatta and Jerry Moss will be there! Ahhh, what a year 2010 could turn out to be.

Welcome back, Oaklawn Park, I hope to see you soon my dear friend!
Eric

Zenyatta thrills the Breeders' Cup

2009-11-07T22:30:00.002-06:00

What a moment in Breeders' Cup history this afternoon as Zenyatta ran down the entire Classic field, weaving through the stretch as if Calvin Borel were piloting her rather than the also-ran Derby winner Mine That Bird (9th), while passing Summer Bird (4th) and the turf specialist Gio Ponti (2nd) on the extreme outside. Rather, it was Mike Smith in the irons, showing none of the enormous pressure of keeping her perfect streak intact in her last race prior to retirement. Now much like Personal Ensign, Zenyatta will always be remembered for her unprecedented competititveness by retiring undefeated on racing's greatest stage, the Breeders' Cup!

And full credit goes to Zenyatta and her owner Jerry Moss and trainer John "I shot the" Shirreffs on this day. No second guessing this time around about taking the easy route as they opted to take on the boys rather than continuing to thrash the same mares in California. Sidebar: Life is Sweet - winner of the Ladies Classic on Friday with ease, had been bested by Zenyatta twice this season. But now her record improved to 4 out of 5 wins without having to face Zen, a sign Zenyatta would have surely won that race had they entered her there.

Even though the field gathered for this year's Classic was a notch or two below historical standards (most of Europe's elite horses failed to cross the pond unlike last year), Zenyatta was clearly the best race horse (male or female) at this distance and track. And not even the presence of Rachel Alexandra would have changed this result. Zenyatta was navigated all year (and criticized because of it) to get to this day in top form and that's exactly where she was. So she deserves all the credit and positive buzz surrounding this race (other than the unfortunate behavior and late scratch of Quality Road... shame on you!). Throughout the next week we should keep the focus on these races and Zenyatta's remarkable career. After that, we can start debating the overall Horse of the Year honors, which will come down to a filly vs. mare in an unprecedented vote. Let's get ready to rumble!!!

Summer Squall and Cryptoclearance - Legends from the late '80s

2009-09-25T15:12:00.005-05:00

There is a folk legend that bad things come in threes. This was certainly the case yet again in the equine world, as Margaux Farm’s Cryptoclearance joined El Prado and Summer Squall as major sires who all met their maker this week. The rare pure-breed bay stallion died yesterday from a heart attack after complications following colic surgery. For some reason, I always thought of Oaklawn Park when hearing the name Cryptoclearance, even though it turns out he only ran at the “Southern Spa” once – a solid second place finish to Lost Code in the 1988 Oaklawn Handicap (finishing ahead of Gulch). However, his name comes up often in the Daily Racing Form as a major influence as a sire, with colts winning consecutive runnings of the Arkansas Derby in 1997 – 1998 with Crypto Star and Victory Gallop, respectively. His other standout offspring include Breeders’ Cup Classic winning Volponi, Bluegrass Stakes winner Millennium Wind and multiple Grade I stakes winning filly Strategic Maneuver.

Cryptoclearance may not be as heralded as his famous Derby winning brother, Unbridled, both coming from the legendary Mr. Prospector sire line via Fappiano, but only time will tell how his true legacy unfolds as he seems to have more breeding momentum going with grandson Candy Ride (remember Chocolate Candy from this year’s Derby and Evita Argentina who has beaten males sprinting?). Regardless, his bloodlines will continue to provide a boost to stamina for generations to come, particularly on the bottom half of the breeding equation.

Now a word on fellow departed Summer Squall, who is the “it” horse in breeding circles after his grandson Summer Bird dominated the summer three year-old male series. The hard luck Summer Squall was known for two things; being THE breakout runner for Cot Campbell’s Dogwood Stables racing partnership (one of my models used for Saturday Racing Syndicate - coming soon to a town near you!) and his “forgotten” rivalry with aforementioned Unbridled. I say forgotten in that horses seldom meet these days more than a couple of races during a particular meet and then go their separate ways. Summer Squall faced Unbridled head to head six times and won an impressive four of them! Problem is that Unbridled won the big ones -- Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic (Squall was sick and did not run in Classic) and was voted Champion 3YO colt over Summer Squall.

Summer Squall was produced from the Secretariat mare, Weekend Surprise, making him a half-brother to uber-stallion, A.P. Indy, again being overshadowed! Squall’s best runners included 1999 Kentucky Derby hero and Horse of the Year Charismatic and Champion 2YO filly Storm Song. Due to declining fertility from his status as a ridgling (check dictionary.com if you need a translation), he retired from stud duty at Lane’s End Farm in 2004.

I referred to Squall earlier as hard luck in that he was slighted in the voting for Champion 2YO colt to Rhythm (who happened to be owned by blue blood, Ogden Phipps) in spite of going five for five, including three historically significant races. Furthermore, due to New York’s anti-medication rules, he wasn’t able to participate in the 1990 Belmont Stakes where he likely would have finished ahead of 4th placed Unbridled yet again. He also came down with a severe viral infection that sidelined the second half of his 3YO campaign, likely costing him another crack at an Eclipse Award. But he did get the better of Unbridled in the end, outliving him for 8 years!

Irish Eyes are Crying - El Prado dies

2009-09-22T15:30:00.006-05:00

El Prado (IRE), the 20 year-old son of Great Britain and Ireland's sire of sires - Saddler's Wells, was found dead yesterday morning in his stall from apparent heart failure at Frank Stronach's Adena Springs. And while it is not uncommon for me to eulogize some of racing's greatest equine athletes on this blog, many of you may have thought that "El Prado" was Spanish for Mr. Edgar Prado, jockey of Barbaro. Since he raced exclusively in Ireland in 1991, most Americans were not familiar with his talent but would certainly recognize his successful sons who raced in the States, led by major purse earner of nearly $6 million including Oaklawn Handicap, Medaglia d'Oro, and turf champion Kitten's Joy. But make no mistake, after this racing season El Prado is best known for the title "Grandpa of Greatness" as the paternal grandsire of Rachel Alexandra.

The legendary Irish spirit of El Prado was best known to me through his alabaster offspring - Chindi. One of El Prado's first born, the Steve Hobby conditioned hard-knocking gelding captivated Oaklawn audiences throughout his 11 year-old season with his patented stretch rally, once winning Oaklawn's only graded sprint stakes - the Count Fleet Stakes - en route to $1 million in career earnings. Chindi has got to be one of the top favorites of Oaklawn's iconic track announcer, Terry Wallace.

I can't end this post without giving condolences to someone desperately in need of cheer, the embattled owner of bankrupt Magna Entertainment and founder of Adena Springs Stud Farm - Frank Stronach. In fact, El Prado was a risk when Mr. Stronach chose a relatively obscure Irish bred horse to be the foundation of what would become a five-time consecutive Eclipse dynasty for breeding operation.

Rachel Alexandra is "Great" in Historic Woodward

2009-09-09T20:46:00.009-05:00

It's hard to believe that a savvy racing "railbird" could be more impressed by a diminishing head victory than a 20 length romp, but Rachel's triumph in Saturday's Grade I Woodward Stakes was the most thrilling finish I have ever witnessed. I have seen some doozies in my day, most notably the Pine Bluff - Lil E. Tee and Azeri - Take Charge Lady duels down "Dogwood Lane" at Oaklawn Park. But this one was different in that even though I was there, the last 40 yards prior to the finish line was blinded from my vantage point behind the winner's circle area, where I had staked out a second row spot to greet the decorated champion. Thus, track announcer Tom Durkin was my eyes and ears until I saw Rachel's head hit the wire just before the grey blob of Macho Again. And what a classic call by Durkin.

We (my fellow railbird friends) were alarmed from the get-go after Durkin began his race-call, "Rachel Alexandra will duel with Da'Tara... making her work today through a punishing quarter mile." Then the stage was set at the top of the stretch as Durkin pronounced, "A dramatic stretch drive awaits." After Rachel turned away both Da' Tara and Past the Point (last year's Woodward runner-up to Curlin after setting the pace) the toughest challenges were yet to come. First, Whitney Handicap winner Bullsbay couldn't quite get to the winner's flank straightening for home with his best effort, but Robby Albarado on stone-cold closer Macho Again split horses perfectly on the turn to save ground while keeping all his momentum moving forward. He proved to push Rachel to her limits, while Calvin repeatedly wailed on her with the crop (no wonder Rachel tossed him in the post parade while warming up!), knowing he would be made to pay for his tactical error if she were nailed on the line. But alas, Rachel was too much woman for Macho Again and actually never let him pass - even in the gallop out. To which Tom Durkin jubilantly exclaimed, "Rachel won... she is indeed Rachel Alexandra the Great!"

To think that Macho's momentum wouldn't have buoyed him past the tiring filly at the wire is as improbable as Rachel holding off these multiple challenges from proven older horses after setting torrid opening fractions. There's a reason that no filly had ever won this particular race since it's inception in 1954 and fillies beating older male horses anywhere is as common as Halley's comet. But the unthinkable has been achieved time and time again with Rachel in 2009... from multiple 20 length victories to Calvin smiling and pointing to cameras whilst cantering to the finish line to charging right out of the gates and making the boys catch her. The only thing is that none ever did, which is why she will undoubtedly be voted champion three year-old filly as well as overall Horse of the Year.

There is an emerging music group called Shinedown that has a current hit, Second Chance, where the lyrics state, "I just saw Halley's comet, she waved - Said why you always running in place?" You get the feeling Rachel IS such a rare treasure and is taunting the competition during her races with "Why you always running in place?" Rachel Alexandra has shown the world that running like a girl is not a bad thing after all.

Rachel being Rachel

2009-09-05T21:00:00.003-05:00

Carly Simon once sang "Nobody does it better" and that was certainly true of today's performance of Rachel. On a stellar, blue Saratoga sky day, Rachel sent the packed house home in top spirits after her GUTSTY performance in the Grade I Woodward Stakes, holding off multiple grades stakes winner and stone-cold closer, Macho Again (after a scorching half-mile). Can you say nine for nine, baby!

That's it... Rachel is "Brooks & Dunn" for the season. After studying her resume - her 11 month tear across American racing - she deserves the balance of the year off. Since she has been declared out of the Breeders' Cup, what more could she prove in a meaningless October or November dance against overmatched foes? She is already a Champion, check that... THE Champion for 2009 - Horse of the Year!

That's all I want to say tonight... it's time to celebrate in the full moon glow of lovely Saratoga. Rachel Alexandra, I think I love you.

Summer Bird canters home in Mid-Summer's Derby

2009-08-30T10:13:00.007-05:00

Could this have been the event Summer Bird was named for? Like his sire, Birdstone, five short years ago, Summer Bird completed the most prestigious Belmont Stakes - Travers Stakes double. Another omen in the story of Summer Bird is that he was raised on Tiffany Farm near Ocala, FL by Drs. Jayaraman, who yesterday received the Tiffany trophy by the Governor of New York for capturing the Travers Stakes.

ESPN's coverage showed how statistically the Belmont Stakes winner has the advantage over Kentucky Derby winners competing in this race. Obviously, this year's Derby winner Mine That Bird, now known as "That Other Bird," was withdrawn earlier in the week from this race due to his recent throat surgery to correct an airflow blockage. But it is clear to me after Summer Bird defeated this solid group of colts, including Quality Road, that he is now at the head of the class for three year-olds; males that is.

How flattering for Rachel Alexandra that a horse she "left in the slop" in the Haskell comes back and does the same to this group? The ESPN crew of Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey were somewhat harsh in their criticism of Jess Jackson for selecting the upcoming Woodward Stakes for Rachel rather than this race. I was on record as saying how I'd love to see a Rachel - Quality Road showdown, but that wouldn't have materialized in this race. Rachel has only a couple more races in her after her demanding 2009 campaign that goes back to February, so spotting races is critical for her connections. How could you possibly fault them for committing to a Grade I race against OLDER MALES that former champions such as Curlin, Cigar, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Forego and Kelso used to solidify their champion status? Plus, the 9 furlong distance rather than 10 furlongs will possibly keep a little fuel in the tank of Rachel if they decide to squeeze in a race against Zenyatta either before (highly doubtful) or following Zenyatta's Breeders' Cup appearance at Santa Anita.

Now more on Hot Springs, AR based owners Drs. KK and V Jayaraman, who have committed serious money to develop their breeding operation and have hit a grand slam with Summer Bird, who probably has not gotten the credit he deserves up to this point (at least from this blogger!). And how about the training job of 35 year young trainer, Tim Ice, who Kent Desormeaux gave major props to following yesterday's race? Ice developed this chestnut colt from unraced maiden at Oaklawn Park in March to multiple Grade I winner and likely colt of the year. Oaklawn Park also has to be tickled pink with yet additional success from their three year-old program, which has been more relevant than any other race track over the past decade, bar none. And feeding off that success they have upgraded their 2010 stakes program to be the richest in track history. Look for the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes to be upgraded in 2010 by the American Graded Stakes Committee.

It appears that the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park is next on the race schedule for Summer Bird. Who knows, after the Woodward Stakes this Saturday at Saratoga, Rachel may be back on a collision course with the next best horse in racing, only this time that name will be Summer Bird.

Rachel Alexandra or "Wo"Man o' War...

2009-08-07T20:47:00.008-05:00

Ha ha ha... but seriously though, Rachel is rapidly approaching the status of the greatest filly/mare of all time after her utter domination of males in the Grade I Haskell Invitational. She could cement her spot at the top IF she holds her form throughout the fall and into her four year-old campaign -- something promised by Mr. Jackson. Those heroines already in this category include Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Azeri, Serena's Song (who also captured the Haskell and Mother Goose in 1995), Zenyatta and "classic" winning fillies Genuine Risk, Winning Colors and Rags to Riches. I would consider any female who defeats the undoubted male champion of his era (Curlin) to rank amongst the greats. More debating this topic in future blogs.

Consider these points:

Rachel has set three stakes records in her assault (Golden Rod, Martha Washington, Mother Goose) while stopping the clock one tick shy in the Grade I Haskell Invitational most recently (in the slop, no less!).

Rachel has re-written the record books on two additional occasions for widest margin of victory (Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose - surpassing Ruffian's record) and was the only horse to win The Preakness from the far outside post (similar to Big Brown's conquest from the 20 post in the 2008 Kentucky Derby).

In addition to the records Rache DID set, she has come within fractions of establishing new time records in the Haskell and Kentucky Oaks. I find it interesting that racing blogs and pundits have consistently blamed Borel for not riding Rachel out rigorously in previous races, yet in the Haskell he was criticized for letting her feel the whip a few times at the top of the stretch. The fact is that one horse can not set stakes or track records alone. Rather, they need the proper pace scenario throughout the race. I mean, do you really believe Monarchos was the second best Kentucky Derby winner of ALL TIME?? (His final time would suggest so, but clearly his closing kick was set up by the suicidal fractions of the front-runners.)

Rachel's 7 for 7 2009 campaign (all but one start at Oaklawn being Grade I or II status) is shaping up like Cigar's 10 for 10 run in 1995 and Zenyatta's seven race perfection streak last year. Although, many handicappers believe Zenyatta has been carefully handled for non-threatening races. Her lone start outside of the California synthetic tracks was a powerful closing victory in Oaklawn's Apple Blossom Handicap in 2008, which makes Oaklawn the most logical track these two champions (presumed for Rachel) could meet.

You may have read lately about the various tracks trying to lure these two superstars for a head to head meeting in either a match race (Sam Houston Park in Houston, TX) or full field race (Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park). The problem is that Zenyatta will be retired prior to the early spring breeding season and her connections are sticking with the Breeders' Cup prep schedule (can't blame them for that). Meanwhile, Rachel's camp wants to keep her on traditional dirt surfaces. That leaves a window of mid-December to early February for a potential head to head. In my mind, there would need to be multiple horses entered to ensure a moderate pace scenario or the speedier Rachel would have a huge advantage. Perhaps Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds or Gulfstream Park can convince both parties to give the sport a dream matchup while enticing them with the big bucks.

In the meantime, another marquee matchup could be Rachel going up against fellow stakes record setting Quality Road in the Traves Stakes (aka, Midsummer's Derby). Stay tuned for Mr. Jackson and Steve Asmussen's decision in the weeks to come.

Happy Racing!

Rachel goes for #2 against boys in Sunday's Haskell

2009-07-11T18:40:00.006-05:00

Another dominant, record-breaking performance by Rachel Alexandra in last month's Grade I Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park went largely unnoticed. That was a very significant race at Belmont, eclipsing the great racemare of the 1970's -heroine Ruffian - margin of victory (19 lengths vs. 13 1/2) while breaking a 15 year standing stakes record with a time of 1:46.33 for 1 1/8 mile distance.

Now stabled at the historic upstate New York track Saratoga, Asmussen and Jackson have decided to make another splash by running Rachel against top colts (Belmont winner Summer Bird and Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem) for the second time in the Grade I $1.25 million Haskell Invitational. My guess is that she'll be on the bridle from the bell in hopes of wiring the abbreviated nine furlong distance of the Haskell. After seeing Rachel run four times and studying her form, I believe her best distance is at 1 1/8 miles, where she has won by a combined 39 lengths in her last two starts at this distance versus fillies. Frankly, she has the speed to win at 7 furlongs if they ever choose to go that route.

My hope is that they aren't too tempted by the money races at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles this fall and instead point to the older female "distaff" division. There are a slew of races in this category at Saratoga and Belmont through October, which makes it likely that we have seen the last of her outside of New York after her New Jersey start on Sunday. Based on Jackson's comments regarding California's synthetic race tracks, there's nary a hope she'll contest the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Santa Anita this fall. That means she must keep winning to have hopes of out-polling Zenyatta for overall Horse of the Year, since Zenyatta will be running in - and likely winning - a Breeders' Cup race (Ladies Classic or Classic) on her home course. Zenyatta so far is running in the same races in California she won last year en route to her perfect campaign, with the Aug. 9th Clement Hirsch Stakes her next start.

As it stands now, the Haskell wil not be nationally televised (even though the West Virginia Derby on Saturday IS being covered by Fox SportsNet -- another sign that racing is in trouble if you can't see it's main star!) so check out the race replay online or visit the "dreaded" local OTB to root on Rachel and hope for another historic victory!

Happy Racing,
E

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta highlight Saturday's coast to coast racing

2009-06-23T18:37:00.003-05:00

Rachel Alexandra's mini-break is over at six weeks, as Steve Asmussen will send his Horse of the Year leader postward in Saturday's Grade I Mother Goose at Belmont Park . Likewise, Zenyatta will be taking her second step in 2009 towards Horse of the Year honors in the $300,000 Grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park, the same race this mare claimed last year during her perfect 9 for 9 campaign. Although, she'll be carrying 3 more pounds at 129 than last year's running under the handicap weight assignments, which are intended to level the playing field. This weight represents the most a mare has carried in a race since three-time Oaklawn Park's Apple Blossom champion Azeri carried 127 pounds in the Vanity's 2003 edition.

We're getting close to the point where Zenyatta's trainer John Shirreffs will begin playing cat and mouse games with racing secretaries across the country prior to entering her in competition, as is the unfortunate case with racing greats. This happened with Curlin more than once last season and certainly plagued Cigar during his 16 race winning streak during his 1995-96 season when he routinely was assigned from five to twenty pounds more than his rivals (hence his nose defeat to Skip Away).

Back to superwoman, aka "Rachel." Belmont racing officials were thrilled to hear the news last week that she was to be entered in the Mother Goose. They have parlayed this good fortune into offer free admission to all women for Saturday's racing card, as well as giving out free "Rachel Alexandra" pink wristbands for the first 10,000 attendees. Not that it matters... last year when Curlin made his much anticipated start on the Belmont lawn in the Man o'War Stakes, the best the Elmont, NY track could draw was 8,400 patrons on a day when parking and admission was free - PATHETIC!!

If Jess Jackson truly is interested in racing Rachel "for the fans" as he proclaimed repeatedly last year with Curlin, he would race Rachel in a city where fans still care about the NAME of a horse instead of their saddle cloth number (ever been to a Manhattan OTB?). Take for example, Arlington Park, where over 34,000 fans - not seasoned horsemen - pounded the turnstiles to see Cigar tie Citation's consecutive win record at 16 in 1996. Or even (I can't believe I'm even saying this...) Monmouth Park in New Jersey, which drew over 40,000 to their first (and likely last with unpredictable weather) Breeders' Cup Saturday a couple of years ago. Hell, they even drew nearly 30,000 for that Friday's Breeders' Cup supplemental card (with a few newly added "also ran" races) when it was raining cats and dogs all day!

But I digress. The point is that this will be a great summer Saturday afternoon to head out to your local race track with kids or friends in tow to witness dual perfection. I'll be making the short 15 mile trek west to Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, TX, which is still in live racing mode, but heaven forbid if you have to visit your local "OTB" (it's all good).

Happy Racing!

That other Bird flies past Borel

2009-06-10T20:59:00.004-05:00

I hate to make a race about a jockey, because the thoroughbred is such a magnificent creature in its own right, but Calvin Borel brought this upon himself. It's only natural to get defensive when someone questions your professional skills (whatever your trade may be), but when you guarantee a victory you set a major bullseye on your back. Not that fellow cajun rider Kent Desourmeaux needed additional motivation, especially after his criticism of pulling up Big Brown in the Belmont stretch last year and getting nipped by the slimmest of margins by Victory Gallop when going for the the elusive Triple Crown with sssshhhhhh... Real Quiet back in 1998.

Calvin Bo-rail had been on an incredible run, with multiple graded stakes winners dating back to The Kentucky Derby, but perhaps his overconfidence caught up with him, like so many Hall of Fame jockeys and others who have gone before him. Most recently, it was the obscure Stewart Elliott, who got lulled into the pace scenario before tiring aboard Smarty Jones in 2004, getting passed in the final sixteenth of a mile by the hottest sire in the business -- Birdstone. I don't know if the fact Calvin had ridden only six previous starts at Belmont Park was the reason for the apparent premature move on the expansive turn of the 1 1/2 mile oval or not, but it's hard to believe after his Derby and Preakness efforts that he is inferior to Summer Bird on his best day. But that's why this race is known as the Test of Champions... sometimes the horse has to be good enough to make up for the rider's faults.

Speaking of Summer Bird, it's yet another feather in the tiara of Oaklawn Park racing, with the third place Arkansas Derby finisher being owned by long-time Hot Springs residents Drs. Jayaraman. Having a classic winner is a big jump from claiming the $50,000 Rainbow and Rainbow Miss Stakes perennially at Oaklawn Park for top Arkansas bred horses, but the Jayaramans had recently moved their expanding broodmare operation to Ocala in hopes of upgrading their matings. However, Birdstone is a Kentucky "homebred" sire and his success in his initial foal crop will only affirm this status.

As I've discussed with several of my "rail bird" friends, this was a mondaine ending to a thrilling Triple Crown series. At this point, I eagerly anticipate the Saratoga "spa" meet to welcome back Quality Road and hopefully Rachel Alexandra to push the Jim Dandy and/or Travers Stakes to another level. Quality Road recently his first published workout (albeit only 3 furlongs) in nearly three months as he attempts his comeback from his hoof problems and Rachel may get a start late in the Belmont meet for 3YO fillies. Whenever the Triple Crown races outcomes are split as they were this year, the summer and fall season tends to dictate who will be the cherished 3 year-old of the year. We have a lot to look forward to!

Until then, may all your tickets be worth of cashing.

Rachel Getting... Praised

2009-05-19T21:06:00.004-05:00

Move over Zenyatta... Rachel Alexandra has stolen your thunder as queen of the backstretch. As Zenyatta's connections scratched her from the Louisville Distaff on May 1st because of an off-track, Rachel went to the post a few races later and turned in a smashing performance that has since brought additional comparisons to Secretariat's historic 31 length Belmont victory. And it's remarkable how Rachel was able to back up that stupefying effort with her dominant pace-setting score in The Preakness Stakes, holding proven closers in Derby winner Mine That Bird and third-place finisher Musket Man in check.

To gauge Rachel's winning time of 1:55.08, consider that the last time a "speed horse" was victorious in the Preakness was 2002, when War Emblem clocked in at 1:56.36. As race times tend to change over the years based on nuances with the particular track, comparing these times to Big Brown's smashing win just last year in 1:54.80 while getting a perfect stalking trip underscores the quality of the race produced by Rachel. Especially after having to start from outside post 13 - that had never before produced a Preakness winner - and also lunging outward at the break.

Enough about the terrific race that we have come to expect from Rachel, the question is where does she go from here? Even though Mine That Bird was reeling her in at the finish line, pace still makes the race and no way would Calvin Borel let her go that fast in the mile and one-half distance of The Belmont Stakes. But a filly has already beaten the boys in the Belmont -- as recently as 2007 when Rags to Riches held off the mighty Curlin of all horses! Who's talking about Rags to Riches now, or even a month after her historic win for that matter? The fact is that another victory against these same horses doesn't really change anything, while a loss... now that's another story entirely. "Old Mo" (aka momentum) is known to change jerseys in a hurry and the last thing racing needs right now is Rachel relegated to the back pages of the magazines, papers, blogs, etc. Just for the record, with Rachel's bloodlines of Sadler's Wells and Damascus on her sire line and Mr. Prospector and Stop the Music on her dam side, she is as well bred for the distance of the Belmont as anyone else in the potential field, including Mine That Bird!

It sounds as if Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen are keenly aware of this by commenting that they are in the driver's seat for Horse of the Year honors. After the impressive victories Rachel already has under her belt, they can carefully pick and choose another 3-4 races with the ultimate goal being the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita and an expected epic battle with the aforementioned Zenyatta, who is not only undefeated in her lifetime but who at 17 hands tall can actually look Rachel in the eye. Who wins that stare down is yet to be determined.

Preakness Preview - Lucky #13 for Rachel?

2009-05-12T12:01:00.007-05:00

Talk about some drama! We've had plenty of it the last few days in the thoroughbred racing community, with Mine That Bird's owner plotting with Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile's owner to deny Rachel Alexandra the chance at proving herself against the boys by filling the entry box with other nominated colts. The scandal even led to heiress MaryLou Whitney, who owns the sire of Mine That Bird, Birdstone. As soon as the media ran with the alleged quotes, Allen and Zayat were criticized on all fronts leading to a major retreat, while Whitney claimed she never spoke of any such coup - which has since held true.

Now on to the race itself. In many ways I feel this year's second jewel of the prized Triple Crown is a "do over" of The Derby, with Rachel getting her crack against the colts and a smaller field which should eliminate SOME of the bad starts and rough trips many of these same horses experienced in The Derby. After all, last year only one colt beaten in The Derby - Gayego - dared challenge Big Brown on two weeks rest and he finished next to last! This year we have not only the top four finishers in Louisville, but also the beaten favorite and two other also-rans.

Along those lines, I am going to give Friesan Fire a chance to redeem his "beaten chalk" status. I backed off him leading up to The Derby due to an expected unfavorable pace scenario, yet he was totally wiped out leaving the gate and never ran a lick. I am hoping for a Louis Quatorze-esque rebound -- that Nick Zito charge who ran an awful 16th in the 1996 Kentucky Derby only to win the Preakness Stakes in a stakes record tying performance! Larry Jones has brought his son of A.P. Indy to Pimlico Race Course just north of Baltimore to get plenty of action over this quirky oval with tight turns -- similar to that of Fair Grounds track in New Orleans, where Friesan swept the spring three year-old series in dominant fashion. For these reasons, I'll be thrilled with 8-1 or so odds come Saturday. If you're looking for more of a long-shot, I see no reason to change my stance on the honest Musket Man, although General Quarters will present a much bigger price if you can dismiss his troubled trip while splitting the field. I would expect Pioneerof the Nile to run another good stalking race, but now that his owner is the "bad guy", I'll be hoping for a flop.

Does this mean I'm betting against my girl, Rachel? Not necessarily... I'll certainly include her in multiple tickets. I just think the public will bet the farm on the filly, especially when the Pimlico odds-maker has set Rachel as the 8-5 morning line favorite. And the extra ground from the 13 post position is a lot to ask from a horse who was expected to get a month break, but now will be facing a hungry crop of sophomores after a 20+ length smashing win. Let's hope that Kentucky Oaks effort was as easy on her as it appeared or she may finally come up a short horse. For those of you playing the race, good luck sirs! It should be exciting regardless of the outcome.

Rachel Getting... SOLD!

2009-05-08T14:07:00.011-05:00

I just had my breath knocked out after reading that phenom filly and my modern day "Cigar", Rachel Alexandra, has been sold to Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Farms (Curlin's majority owner) for an unspecified amount. My best guess would put this sum at over $5 million; anything less would be pimping this magnificent filly out like a cheap prostitute. However, Jackson showed a lot of class with previous super-horse Curlin by bringing him back for a four year-old campaign and even reluctantly running the champ in the Breeders' Cup Classic, knowing the race and surface would not best suit him.

Part of my feeling of betrayal is due to my special bond with Rachel. I thought I was her #1 fan who was entitled to approve any deals, but obviously Jackson must be to put up that kind of money. I first met Rachel when making her sophomore bow in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park over President's Day weekend. Everyone there was aware of her talent, as she paid a meager $2.80 to win and $2.20 to show. But few expected the luminary that she turned out to be. For the next three races I became a groupie... always pushing my way to the prime spot in front of Rachel's paddock stall while following Rachel to Louisiana in the slop, back to Arkansas and finally to the mecca of horse racing where her God-given talent transformed into legend before 104,867 sets of eyes. I even got a "thumbs up" when calling out to Borel as he led Rachel out of the Churchill Downs paddock (slightly viewable on Bravo's Kentucky Oaks coverage).

But what's the big deal - right - favorites are always SUPPOSED to win! I have personally witnessed three marquee races in particular that were expected to be coronations, yet turned out to be humbling experiences. Last October, Curlin entered the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita having not lost on dirt since August of 2007 and was thus sent off as the "odds-on" favorite. The synthetic surface perhaps partially to blame, nonetheless, Curlin labored through the stretch to a fourth place finish. Smarty Jones was set to become the last unbeaten Triple Crown winner since the great Seattle Slew in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. It's just that someone forgot to tell Nick Zito and Birdstone to let the 2-5 favored Smarty Jones win. And perhaps the toughest blow on me personally was the 1996 Pacific Classic, in which Dick Mandella used two horses to "tag team" the 16 consecutive race winner Cigar by baiting him into a suicidal speed duel with Siphon, while setting it up for his other closer, Dare And Go. This lone poor ride on Cigar is why Jerry Bailey can never be regarded as the best jockey of his generation.

So, clearly, I know something about heartbreak at the track. (Sidebar: spaking of heartbreaks, the reason I've never been a big Calvin Borel fan is that he cost me a winning Pick 6 ticket at Louisiana Downs when I was about 16. After hitting 5 in a row, I went into the 8th race with two horses alive for an anticipated $40,000 payoff. I had the race favorite and a mid-priced horse Borel was riding, who got blocked around the turn stuck on the rail and had to swing extremely wide, coming up a head short at the wire! Even the 5 of 6 consolation money couldn't deter my hatred of Borel. But for the record, after two decades I have dealt with my anger and now I'm very happy for his recent successes.)

Which makes Rachel's astonishing twenty and one-quarter length romp in the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks all the more impressive. And all the while Borel had a firm hold of her reigns in the stretch, customarily gawking at the crowd and rubbing Rachel's neck (which probably cost her the .20 seconds off a track record!) while waiting for competition, but yet again there was none. Now I've seen some 12 length romps in my day, but they're usually in a state-bred maiden race or a conditioned allowance race, not at the highest level of racing that is supposed to include the best of the best. By contrast, Mine That Bird's 6 1/2 length score in The Derby was the largest margin of victory since Assault won The 1946 Derby by eight lengths en route to the Triple Crown. And keep in mind that Rachel Alexandra had a shorter distance by an eighth of a mile to create that separation. Makes you wonder how much she could have won by running a mile and a half... I'd take Rachel and the "over" on Secretariat's 31 length Belmont triumph. Rachel and Secretariat in the same sentence?? You damned right!

Give 'em hell in the Preakness, Rachel, your biggest fan will be watching.

Bo-Rail did what?

2009-05-02T20:09:00.005-05:00

If you were as shocked as I was to see Mine That Bird explode through the rail into the stretch, you were probably thinking it was "the other" Birdstone horse, Summer Bird, who finished a fast closing third in the Arkansas Derby. But after further review, it was a horse who in 2009 lost both starts in the racing mecca of, wait for it....... New Mexico!

Here I was watching my pick, Pioneerof the Nile, pulling away from the field turning for home after withstanding rapid quarter and half mile fractions of 22.4 and 47.1 (which moderated the middle part of the race) and hearing my long-shot's - Musket Man - name being called into the stretch when a horse skipped the rail and escaped from the field. Of course it would have to be Borel, a crafty cajun' who I was able to cheer the day before as he piloted the legendary Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks (future post coming on this remarkable filly and my first "fillies Derby" day). But on this day I was hoping the bastard would come out of his stirrups so I could hit the tri! But alas, it was not meant to be for me yet another year, even though I always take pride in winning my own handicapping challenge (Tin Cup, anyone?) with the 2nd and 3rd place finisher (Musket Man at a nice price!).

After my multiple mint juleps had evaporated, I couldn't shake the familiarity of Mine That Bird. That's when I realized this was my long-shot special in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. My blog posting as appeared on October 23rd follows...

"Handicapping the Juvenile really had me perplexed, but I decided to "give the nod to Square Eddie (9-2) based on his dominant Keenland romp over the polytrack surface. A hunch is telling me to bet a ticket or two on Mine That Bird at 30-1, who has dominated lesser foes north of the border at Woodbine in Canada."

So for the second time in recent years, I had touted a winner a race or two prior to The Derby but jumped off the bandwagon when things weren't going great (my Razorback friends can attest to this). The other scenario was Bluegrass Cat, who I loved in the Blue Grass Stakes but hated that effort and totally dismissed in The Derby as he ran second at 30-1.

Musket Man proved his distance concerns were unfounded... I thought his previous wins at 9 furlongs already proved this. Other closers fared much better as I expected in the 3rd - 6th spots, such as Musket's show, Papa Clem - proved to be able to rate two races in a row, Chocolate Candy and the aforementioned Summer Bird. The post-time favorite honors easily went to Friesan Fire at 3.80 - 1, who finished next to last after bumping hard at the start and splitting a severe quarter crack at the onset of the race. My greatest satisfaction was seeing Dunkirk finish up the track as the 5-1 second choice in the wagering. Sure, he got a bad break along with many others in a 19 horse field... part of the reason I discounted a 3 time starter who had no seasoning as a two year-old. Several other underlays ran poorly, notably General Quarters at 10-1, Hold Me Back at 13-1 and Desert Party at 15-1.

It was a hectic day for me, as I had two flight delays en route back to Dallas, barely arriving in time for our Derby party, which I was greeted with tornados and repeated interruptions of Derby coverage on the local NBC affiliate. And of course, the TwinSpires website was backlogged prior to The Derby to prevent future bets (saved me more $$). But I will close my weary eyes soon in hibernation mode with Rachel Alexandra's 20+ length romp as my last sight. So thanks for all your emails/text messages/phone calls, but just don't expect any future replies until Monday morning. It was a great Derby 135 friends... just THIS CLOSE from a $42,000 trifecta! Ahh, but that's what keeps us coming back for more, just like sinking that 20 foot putt on the 18th green to salvage a 95, but you're right back on the tee box the next weekend!

Until the Preakness Stakes in two weeks, may all your tickets be worthy of cashing. Come see me at Lone Star track in Dallas this summer!

Peace out.
Eric

I Want Revenge

2009-05-02T08:27:00.001-05:00

Derby 135 is beginning to resemble one of too many reality shows these days where one contestant is voted off each day. The latest defection - I Want Revenge - was technically no longer the morning line favorite since betting opened on Oaks day and the locals pounded Friesan Fire to 9-2 and locally owned General Quarters to 5-1(retired principal from Louisville - the best feel good story of this group).

I can recall the 1992 Derby morning scratch of A.P. Indy, but don't remember the top 2 picks having to drop out in the final week, but maybe someone can add to that.

I guess that's the benefit of being in town seeing local stories before the press conferences are picked up by sports outlets. That is coming shortly.
Eric

Horse Racing

Derby 135 Week - Oaks Day

2009-05-01T06:23:00.002-05:00

My how time flies when we're having fun. It's hard to believe that Derby day is nearly upon us. But first comes the best race program assembled since the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita last October. Friday has historically been known as both "Fillies Derby" day and Louisville's Day at the Downs. I look forward to being amidst the 100k plus racegoers across the grandstand and infield celebrating two standout ladies; Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra (different races). And with Macho Again running in the Alysheba Stakes on the undercard, it's starting to remind me of Louisiana Derby day... I hope I'm as lucky! Rachel Alexandra and Flying Spur keyed a nice trifecta ticket for me and ditto for Macho Again on that rain-soaked day, which I'll be betting back tomorrow.

Speaking of rain, that's been a real concern for The Derby. I still doubt we'll have a soupy track like the one Smarty Jones won over. But if it does come up wet, beware of Friesan Fire -- after all, his mother was a mudder! Desert Party is the only other starter who has won on an "off" track.

I've done my best to save most of my thoughts on handicapping The Derby until the last moment, so not to influence your opinions. After all, I've only picked one winner (long-shot Funny Cide in '03) since I started this 13 years ago. In recent years I have turned away the obvious talent, which this year seems to be I Want Revenge (now that Quality Road is out). So it should surprise no one that I'm tossing the favorite in my picks, though not ALL of my bets in case I'm wrong. Here's how I see the race unfolding...

Of the top choices, I think Papa Clem and Friesan Fire will flash speed based on their quick works, along with long-shots Regal Ransom, Join the Dance and Atomic Rain. My guess is that Joe Talamo will be forced to rush Revenge to save ground on the first turn. Then comes all the horses who expect to be laying 5th or 6th (pushing each other faster) like Pioneer, Desert Party and General Quarters. Thus, I like the long-shot closers Hold Me Back and or Musket Man to run into the exotics.

I know I live in Texas and should be concerned with this swine virus outbreak, but I'm feeling another kind of fever -- Pioneer of the "west" Nile virus! True, he has yet to pop a triple digit Beyer speed figure, but he's beaten several top choices - including I Want Revenge twice in a "loser leave town" match in the Lewis Stakes. The fact that he hasn't run on a dirt surface leads me to believe he has more upside than others.

For all of you who are interested in our handicapping contest, please post your picks (top 3, in order) in the comments section - or send me a personal email if you prefer. Nobody has picked a "stone cold" trifecta yet, so perhaps this is the year! Happy Derby to you and yours.
Eric

Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby 135 Week - Post Positions

2009-04-29T12:53:00.011-05:00

The post position draw occured late Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs in a radical departure from recent years. Rather than having a "made for tv" event with emcee, interviews, etc., the draw occured in obscurity... a sign that interest in thoroughbred racing continues deteriorating. Furthermore, for the first time in many years, Friday's Kentucky Oaks will not be broadcast via live television. This is quite a change over a few generations, when companies and factories would close down on days when horses such as Seabiscuit, Count Fleet and Citation would make a scheduled start. I guess I can't blame the average Joe (not to be confused with Joe the Plumber) for lacking interest after the fatal breakdowns of Barbaro and Eight Belles in recent years, not to mention the steroid scandal with Big Brown and the lack of a national policy on drug and safety matters. Which makes tracks such as Oaklawn Park and even Lone Star near Dallas the model for racing after increasing purse money and attendance in recent years by incorporating more promotions (casino in the case of Oaklawn) and special events to draw the casual racing fan to an afternoon of fun. Oh well, enough of my tangent, let's get to the official post positions and odds!

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stewart Elliott 30-1
2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1
4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1
7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1
12 General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1
15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1
17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
19 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1
20 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado 50-1

Not really any shockers with the draw choices, especially after considering Dutrow's bold move last year of selecting post #20 for Big Brown even though there were several spots left to prove his horse could overcome anything! Baffert made some puzzling comments that he was hoping all day to get in the 16 post, which they ended up getting. That may force Pioneer of the Nile to show a little more speed on the first turn to save some ground, but all other outside horses are long-shots.

Does anyone have an angle on the Dubai horses, Desert Party and Regal Ransom? If so, please send me comments as I'm balking on my initial thought to toss them completely due to the passive race regimen this spring. My current "fear" horse is late blooming Hold Me Back at 15-1 after his win and runner-up finish on synthetics. I would love to discount these races due to his success primarily on artificial surface -- that they WON'T be running on at Churchill Downs. But then you see I Want Revenge who made the switch easily in New York from California tracks to the traditional tracks of the East. Would love to get the thoughts of my "railbird" friends!

Trivia answer: Stewart Elliott was the last jockey to win The Derby in his first attempt with Smarty Jones in 2004. After another big win in The Preakness, many thought he actually cost him the coveted Triple Crown when he moved Smarty in the Belmont Stakes through a swift 6 furlongs with more than a half mile remaining. Ultimately, he was passed in the last sixteenth of a mile by Nick Zito trained Birdstone in my only triple crown attended event to date. On Saturday, 19 year-old phenom Joe Talamo tries to duplicate this feat on the likely favorite, I Want Revenge.

Derby 135 Week - Rachel Getting Ready

2009-04-27T22:33:00.009-05:00

Monday had no shortage of drama on the Churchill Downs racing strip. By now you have probably seen the graphic video of a tragic training accident that occurred when a three year-old colt tossed his jockey and proceeded his workout, where he slammed into an unraced 2 year-old filly (Raspberry Kiss) at approximately 40 mph. You can probably guess the result... the filly received a broken pelvis and had to be euthanized, a truly heartbreaking scene.

The accident happened just as Calvin Borel was ready to shake the reigns at Rachel Alexandra to initiate her workout. When Rachel returned to the track to complete her scheduled work, the leggy daughter of Medaglia d'Oro dropped some jaws as she blazed around the track completing 5 furlongs in :58.40 and 6 panels in 1:10.60. By contrast, several entries in The Derby also had 5 furlong tuneups for Saturday's run for the roses; Pioneer of the Nile - 1:00.87, Chocolate Candy - :59.24, Join in the Dance - 1:00.20, Take the Points - 1:00.06, Win Willy - 1:02.40 and Friesan Fire - :57.86, following Larry Jones' aggressive training script. Even though Friesan Fire was the only horse to work faster than Rachel for 5/8ths of a mile, she made up four seconds while galloping out the final furlong while well in hand under Calvin "Bo-rail".

So what do all of these times mean... after all, this isn't quarter horse racing we're talking about! As a frame of reference, some of the fastest pre-Derby works in years past produced mixed results. Trainer Larry Jones employed the same style that didn't seem to phase Eight Belles (:58.20) or Hard Spun (:57.60) in previous runner-up efforts and Smarty Jones had a bullet 5 furlongs in :58.00 before his 2004 Derby triumph. However, the tightening may have adversely affected Point Given in 2001 (:58.20) and Artax in 1998 (:58.00), which had the scribes scurrying.

Trivia Answer: War Emblem was Baffert's last Derby winner, although he took over training the colt just prior to his Illinois Derby victory. His previous "real" trainee was "the fish" Real Quiet in 1998 one year after his first score with Silver Charm.

By the end of today, we'll have the official field for The Derby with post position assignments and morning line odds. Good luck with your handicapping!

Derby 135 - Tuesday

2009-04-27T00:16:00.011-05:00

Well, let's get the bad news out of the way and move on... Quality Road has been declared out of The Derby based on his deteriorating quarter crack. You would think that I have learned every possible lesson from Derbies past, but I had started my betting strategy a little early this year and had pretty much decided to single Quality Road on top in my big exotic tickets... so much for that! As I indicated in an earlier post, this defection will have a HUGE impact on not only on the odds, but also the pace scenario, where he was likely to ensure a brisk pace being on or very near the lead. Now that he and The Pamplemousse are victims of the Derby trail, that must make the Friesan Fire and Papa Clem camps overjoyed by expecting more moderate fractions for the half mile and 6 furlong intervals.

On a positive note, Friday is setting up to be a huge day for the ladies at Churchill Downs. Not only will Rachel Alexandra be trying to establish herself as one of the great fillies of all time by extending her dominant win streak in the Kentucky Oaks, but it is projected that champion undefeated mare Zenyatta will make her 2009 debut in the Louisville Distaff, also on Friday's card. Zenyatta has already firmly proven herself, winning all nine starts (including the 2008 Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park) and a similar campain in 2009 will make her one of the true greats - male or female - to ever grace the oval. This couldn't have shaped up any better for Churchill Downs, who is trying to establish a Kentucky Oaks attendance record by hosting Susan G. Komen Cancer charity events throughout the infield on "wear pink" day.

Trivia Answer: Yesterday's trivia answer is Alydar, who sired both Alysheba (see my related archived tribute) and Strike The Gold. Strangely enough, "super stud" A.P. Indy has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, although he was twice recognized as sire of the year by progeny earnings and produced Triple Crown champs Bernardini (Preakness) and Rags to Riches (Belmont). The votes were evenly distributed across the four choices. I will offer an easier trivia question today (at least for you Google maniacs!).

Happy Derby Week!

Happy Derby 135 Week

2009-04-25T12:58:00.011-05:00

I know it's not quite Monday, but I'm kicking off the show a little early this year due to an imposing travel schedule -- more on that later.

Let me start by reporting that the Quality Road camp is still optimistic after this morning's jog around the track that produced a trace of blood from the quarter crack, but no soreness or swelling. He is still scheduled for an official workout Monday morning.

Folks, let's not kid ourselves. Kentucky Derby 135 is all about revenge. And I'm not talking about I Want Revenge, rather revenge of the sires of this year's crop to make up for past Derby's lost. Speaking of I Want Revenge, his sire - Stephen Got Even - ran a laughable 14th as the "danger horse" in the '99 Derby (Charismatic). Pioneer of the Nile's sire - Empire Maker - was the beaten favorite in '03 (Funny Cide). Another beaten favorite in '96 (won by Grindstone), Unbridled's Song sends out Dunkirk in hopes of redeeming his off-the-board finish, while Mine That Bird tries to best Birdstone's 2001 (Monarchos) 8th place finish.

On the other hand, a few horses are trying to pull off the father-son double as Win Willy hopes to follow in Monarchos'(01) shoes and Flying Private likewise of Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). Furthermore, Elusive Quality hopes to sire his second winner in Quality Road to join brother Smarty Jones (04).

Most of you know that I've never witnessed The Derby in person -- waiting to have my very own horse entered in The Derby to go in style if/when that ever may happen! But this year I have decided to at least spend a couple of days in Louisville leading up to The Derby for live blogging from the backstretch. Since I have to be in Memphis for a work trip this week, I realized Louisville wasn't that far away, so what the hell! While I'm there, I will also be able to see my favorite filly - Rachel Alexandra - go for the win in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday's card.

Here is a very helpful site to watch race replays and evaluate the talent for Saturday's big race: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/

Trivia questions can be found in the left margin... please participate since no one can tell if you are right or wrong with your response. And feedback and comments are always encouraged... Talk Derby to me!

E

Quality Road... say it ain't so!

2009-04-24T18:02:00.003-05:00

Just eight days prior to the 135th Run for the Roses, major news hit the backstretch and personally threw a major wrench in my handicapping. Quality Road has suffered a new quarter crack on his right front hoof, although, reportedly not as severe as his last one that split on his right rear during his Florida Derby triumph. With Big Brown last year and now this horse, "quarter crack" is giving "stimulus" a push for the most quoted word(s) over the past year -- at least in my world. At worst, he'll be declared out of the race over the weekend and perhaps be mended in time for the classics to follow, or likely by Saratoga's Travers Stakes. At best, his last scheduled workout will be pushed back to Sunday or Monday, not the optimal approach in training regimen for the biggest race of his life!

If he indeed scratches in the coming days, that is a bad thing for all bettors. If you planned on tossing the son of Elusive Quality due to speed/distance concerns, now your horse will be bet down to lower odds. On the flip side, if you liked this horse (like me) and planned on keying him in the exotics, it's time to go back to the drawing board. Even if he gets in the race there will be lingering doubts that will shatter confidence at the betting windows... the VERY LAST thing you want when trying to whittle down a 20 horse field!

So - true to form - we have our first official Derby drama. There are usually one or two candidates that suffer such a fate during the final workout or days leading up to The Derby, so let's hope all else remains calm over the weekend. As always, I'll be keeping you posted and remember -- Derby trivia begins Monday!

Happy Racing.

Papa Clem relishes Easter in Arkansas

2009-04-12T17:07:00.011-05:00

The worst kept secret on the Oaklawn Park backstretch last week was that Old Fashioned could not rate. Trainer Gary Stute used this information to his advantage as he and jockey Rafael Bejarano changed tactics and brought Papa Clem off the pace to capture the 73rd running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby. The colt still eligible for a NW1/X finally recorded his break-through victory in an easier spot after chasing such stars as Pioneer of the Nile in California and Friesan Fire in Louisiana.

That was not an attempt to discount the Derby field or runner-up, Old Fashioned, who again laid down zippy fractions while staying into the bit in the ninth furlong to finish a determined second. But later that evening trainer Larry Jones was dealt another blow as Old Fashioned was found to have a broken knee and will likely never race again. That leaves stablemate Friesan Fire as his last hope prior to retirement to capture the run for the roses after two runner-up finishes with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Lightly raced Summer Bird picked up the pieces for the show spot, meaning that Papa Clem will likely be the lone representative from Arkansas in Louisville.

In the other major final prep at Keeneland, the $20,000 claimer from last May - General Quarters - was a surprise winner of The Blue Grass Stakes over favorite Hold Me Back and fellow long-shot (and my pick) Massone. Theregoesjojo and Terrain threw in clunkers to put an end to their Derby dreams.

So with most if not all of the projected Derby starters now primed for the big one, that makes Quality Road the leader in the clubhouse (it is Masters Sunday, after all!). Even though the colt developed a slight quarter crack in his Florida Derby triumph, apparently it is not as severe as Big Brown's hoof problems from a year ago, which obviously didn't slow him down. Many of you have heard me talk about "key races" early on The Derby trail. It's easy to look back and circle the February 7th Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita as such a race, where Papa Clem finished just behind Pioneer of the Nile and a length ahead of I Want Revenge. Neither of those horses have lost again, so it's going to be tough to try to separate these three come the first Saturday in May!

Hope you all had a blessed Easter.

Too many "favorites" with 3 preps to go!

2009-04-05T18:55:00.004-05:00

Three major prep races were run on Saturday with three favorites winning -- all with authority! Pioneer of the Nile deserves top billing after bringing Baffert his 5th Santa Anita Derby win, not only based on his last two victories over Santa Anita's cushion track, but particularly three races back when he defeated I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, sending those to weaker competition to the East and South, respectively. Papa Clem had a nice second to Friesan Fire in the LA Derby and is up next Saturday in the AR Derby at Oaklawn while I Want Revenge completed his thrashing of Aqueduct foes on Saturday with a flat-footed start and stretch impeded flourish to claim the Wood Memorial.

Elsewhere on Saturday, Musket Man backed up his Tampa Bay Derby score with a victory in Hawthorne's Illinois Derby, a race that War Emblem won in 2002 while coming into The Derby under the radar. Even though this one has a sprinter's pedigree, there's something about this late blooming colt that intrigues me.

So if that's not enough of a stellar cast, let me back up 2 weeks ago when Quality Road delivered the record performance I expected of him in the Florida Derby while outclassing Dunkirk, to clearly establish himself as the colt to beat on May 2nd. Although, Dunkirk proponents will lament the fact that the Gulfstream Park dirt track produced three stakes records on a day that tended to favor speed. Even though Quality Road wasn't on the lead, he was a close second most of the way while Dunkirk loomed towards the back of the pack being a closer. Another duo who made some noise in Dubai were Godolphin owned Regal Ransom and Desert Party, who finished about a furlong ahead of the best of the rest in the UAE Derby.

So at this time, I would have to say that Quality Road and Pioneer of the Nile are the leaders in the clubhouse, with I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire clipping at their heels. Old Fashioned can put his name back into the favorite discussion (especially with Larry Jones as trainer) with a win in the Arkansas Derby this coming Saturday. As I anticipated, with these others winning impressively closer to The Derby, it seems as though Friesan Fire is already the forgotten horse. An example is Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen rating, where he has slid from #2 to #5 over the past three weeks while training up to The Derby. With many of these other horses running extremely fast races at or near the pace, this year's Derby pace scenario is shaping up to be impossible to handicap. It's a matter of how the trainers and jockeys may be changing tactics based on their post position draw. Do we really have to wait FOUR MORE WEEKS???

Derby winner Alysheba dies at age 25 - caps tragic month

2009-03-31T22:10:00.008-05:00

Beware the Ides of March, indeed! Shakespeare's famous line from Julius Caesar unfortunately turned out to be a harbinger of tragic events with past Kentucky Derby champions. The news of Alysheba's death last Friday due to a stall injury from a degenerative spinal condition has slowly reverberated throughout the equine world, just as racing fanatics were digesting the news of Lil E. Tee's passing nine days previous.

Alysheba (conditioned by savvy horseman Jack Van Berg and piloted by Chris McCarron) is universally regarded as the greatest racing progeny of the great sire, Alydar. Speaking of Alydar (and his epic rivalry with Affirmed), his son had a penchant for rivalries as well in both his 3 and 4 year-old seasons. The first rivalry started with Alysheba's 1987 Kentucky Derby triumph over Bet Twice, in which he avoided near catastrophe after clipping heels with Bet Twice in the stretch (ala Afleet Alex and Scrappy T. in the 2005 Preakness). These two finished in the same order at Pimlico two weeks later, while the speedy Bet Twice cantered through soft fractions in the "test of champions" (a.k.a. Belmont Stakes) to win easily while Alysheba lacked his customary finishing kick and finished fourth. It is important to note, however, that Alysheba was a bleeder and had to run without the diuretic Lasix according to New York medication laws at that time. For good measure, Bet Twice squeezed out a neck victory from Alysheba in the Haskell Invitational to split their head to head campaign at two wins each. And this was amongst strong competition with the likes of Gulch, Cryptoclearance and Demons Begone in their crop.

Alysheba's second "mini-rivalry" began with a painful loss to 1986 Derby winner Ferdinand by a diminishing nose in that fall's Breeders' Cup Classic. Although that defeat stirred up Alysheba, who came back for his four year-old season pissed off with a vengeance! In nine starts, he had seven wins - six Grade I's - and all but one victory was by the slim margin of under a half length... essentially taunting his peers until the finish line. Three of these victories were at the expense of Ferdinand, who fell "off form" in his six winless starts as a five year-old. Alysheba's final career victory under the lights of Churchill Downs in the Breeders' Cup Classic sealed his Horse of the Year honors. He was soon thereafter an inductee into the National Horse Racing Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs, NY.

It is both tragic and fitting that Alysheba made it back to Kentucky just months before his death after returning to the rolling hills of bluegrass from a Saudi Arabia stud farm in late October... a much better fate than previous racing foe, Ferdinand, who's life ended in a Japanese slaughter house (www.friendsofferdinand.org). He briefly called the Kentucky Horse Park Hall of Champions home, occupying the very stall that housed John Henry for decades. Alysheba retired with over $6.6 million in lifetime earnings, also supplanting John Henry's earnings record by a slim margin. That leaves another one-time earnings leader in Cigar (until Curlin recently surpassed the $10 million mark) across from the again unoccupied stall wondering who his new neighbor will be. Whichever new horse the Horse Park staff is able to woo to the Hall of Champions, it's doubtful that one will be able to fill the bridle left by "America's Horse" - Alysheba.

Lil E. Tee and the magical 1992 Kentucky Derby

2009-03-24T16:28:00.003-05:00

Lil E. Tee is one of the major reasons that I am so passionate about thoroughbred racing, particularly The Kentucky Derby. 1992 was one of the most exciting springs in Arkansas horse racing history, with top Derby candidates Lil E. Tee and Pine Bluff establishing an epic rivalry. It started in the Southwest Stakes, when long-shot Big Sur surprised the racing world when he bested both Pine Bluff (who finished second) and Lil E. Tee (show spot). The connections of Lil E. Tee (owner W. Cal Partee and trainer Lynn Whiting) then shipped their Pennsylvania bred to Turfway Park where he re-established his winning ways in the Jim Beam Stakes, setting up the greatest Arkansas Derby ever run. After matching strides from the clubhouse turn to the finish line, Pine Bluff hit the wire half of a head sooner than Lil E. Tee. Although Pine Bluff won the battle that day, the war ultimately went to Lil E. Tee three weeks later in Louisville.

Fast forward to Kentucky Derby week in 1992 and the media frenzy over the previous Juvenile Breeders’ Cup Champion ARAZI (the name still harkens memories of the Darth Vader-esque villain). Arazi had made a never-before-seen SWOOOSH move around the turn at Churchill Downs the previous November en route to his Juvenile triumph. If there was any possible chance of an American horse denying the French based Arazi the roses, that hope rested on the stern withers of Santa Anita Derby winner and possibly the greatest breeding specimen in U.S. thoroughbred history, A.P. Indy. The $2.9 million sale topping yearling purchase was sired by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of Secretariat’s greatest daughter, Weekend Surprise. A.P. Indy would go on to claim the Eclipse Award for Champion male horse after his smashing Belmont Stakes score and Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Fast forward to Derby dawn, circa 1992… there is commotion on the backstretch where an exasperated Neil Drysdale is addressing the media. The shocking news of A.P. Indy’s scratch from the race due to a lame hoof sends panic through the Louisville track’s stable area and fuels several dozen hits on a recent web invention by Al Gore known as the “internet.” (Fyi… this event led to the creation of ESPN’s “Breakfast at Churchill” coverage that’s now commonplace every year come Derby morning – the beginning of my daily ritual).

Fast forward to ABC’s Wide World of Sports reporter and horse owner Jim McKay’s pre-Derby coverage debating the odds of Shelley Riley’s chance to claim the roses as a female trainer with hard-knocking Casual Lies. Then the cameras pan right to a parachute pant entourage led by wrapper M.C. Hammer (via Oaktown Stable), who owns the talented colt, Dance Floor. D. Wayne Lukas customarily gets his fair share of camera action bringing over his two Derby entries, whilst the soft-spoken Lynn Whiting leads the bridle of the “second best” horse in Arkansas, Lil E. Tee, towards the paddock where he would soon give Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day a leg up. Like his trainer and owner, Pat Day had never won the big one, even though his recent Derby mounts included standouts Summer Squall, Easy Goer and Forty Niner. All of that would change on this fateful day with the unlikeliest of candidates.

The grueling stretch drive in the Arkansas Derby against Pine Bluff must have given Lil E. Tee just the conditioning necessary to produce the winning move Pat Day needed when tracking jockey Pat Valenzuela on Arazi as he began to make his move. “And Arazi is flying!” proclaimed track announcer Dave Johnson as both colts loomed wide on the final turn for home. But as quickly as you can say, “Wooooo Pig Soooiiieee” the hype began to fade for Arazi… he was a beaten horse. It was now clear that not only would Lil E. Tee pull away from Arazi, but that this hulking bay colt in polka dot orange silks (which seemed to blend magnificently with his iridescent bay coat) was en route to passing Casual Lies to capture “the greatest two minutes in sports!” I was so ecstatic and proud at that very moment that our humbly bred, Arkansas owned horse accomplished the unthinkable.

The rivalry with Pine Bluff continued on the national stage in the Preakness Stakes, with a flip-flop finish for the two… Pine Bluff ultimately got his garland of flowers, but had to settle for the Black Eyed Susans instead of roses, while Lil E. Tee finished 5th at Pimlico, a very tired horse at that point. When Magnolia, Arkansas land man and banker W. Cal Partee won The Derby with Lil E. Tee as his fourth starter, he was a youthful 82 years young (coincidentally the age my father Herb turns today - March 24th). What made the victory so special for Mr. Partee was the fact Lil E. Tee’s sire, At The Threshold, was also campaigned by the Partee family, finishing third in the 1984 Derby won by Swale.

What some people may not know is that Lil E. Tee’s racing career was almost an afterthought when as a yearling he underwent critical stomach surgery, dimming his racing prospects. But after fully recovering and then showing promise in his first two career starts, Mr. Partee purchased the horse privately in Florida. And the rest, as they say, is history.

Here lies Lil E. Tee… winner of seven races from 13 starts, $1.4 million in purse money and winner of the 1992 Kentucky Derby, R.I.P.

Rachel Alexandra creates more buzz

2009-03-19T15:35:00.005-05:00

Although my new favorite filly of all time, Rachel Alexandra, easily won her third Stakes race in a row in last Saturday's $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, her time was finally eclipsed by her male counterparts as Friesan Fire stopped the clock 10/100ths of a second faster a few races later. However, an asterisk could be placed next to her finishing time since jockey Calvin Borel was more interested pointing to his homies in the grandstand in the last furlong than guiding Rachel to the wire. It nearly cost him as longshot Flying Spur and Patrick Valenzuela stormed through the stretch to get within 2 lengths of "throttled down" Rachel at the finish line. Not only do I admire Rachel for her take no prisoners running style after seeing her twice, but she also sparked a decent trifecta ticket (for a chalk favorite, anyway) for me with the long-shot running second, so now I'm a resolute fan. By the way, thanks also to Macho Again in the New Orleans Handicap I've hit exotics paying over $100 on my last two track visits in 2009, so this may FINALLY be my year!

Co-owner and breeder Dolphus Morrison then added more rain on the New Orleans parade of those hoping for Rachel to jump on the Triple Crown trail. "No, no, no, no," he said, as he labeled the performance "awesome." "We have too good a filly to risk her future in a 20-horse field of brutal, man-macho colts," said Morrison. "It's not where she needs to be. If we could win the Kentucky Oaks, it would be a wonderful thing." You have to admire the humility and sensible nature of Morrison, who clearly wants to do right by his pride and joy. Not to mention the East vs. West showdown the Kentucky Oaks would create against Juvenile Fillies champion and IEAH Stables "star" purchase, Stardom Bound. By the way, if you're curious about Rachel Alexandra's name, it comes form Morrison's eldest grand-daughter, who is probably the most famous kid in pre-school these days.

Happy Racing!

Friesan Fire scorches wet Louisiana Derby track

2009-03-16T20:48:00.004-05:00

It's time to add another star to Larry Jones' impressive training resume... Friesan Fire. This racehorse was absolutely professional in drawing away from a deeply talented Louisiana Derby field of nine entrants including Papa Clem (who previously bested I Want Revenge in California before that one took the Gotham Stakes), Terrain (my longshot choice who finished 4th in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and put in a decent bid to be nipped for 2nd) and a host of local foes. Yes, the racing Gods seem to be approving of Larry Jones, who took some criticism following Eight Belles' break-down after finishing second in last year's Kentucky Derby. He was the consumate professional in all media requests and panel interviews on safety initiatives following that tragic event but ultimately admitted that the year had taken a toll on his personal life and may be ending his status as trainer at the end of this year. In addition to Friesan Fire, he trains the more heralded son of Unbridled's Song, Old Fashioned, who was a beaten favorite by the 56-1 longshot Win Willy in The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Saturday. Still a pretty nice one-two punch as we near The Derby!

Friesan Fire's sweep of the Fair Grounds stakes circuit for three year-olds reminds me of Smarty Jones in a number of ways. First, Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby from the outside post by laying just off another front runner for 6 furlongs before drawing away on the turn when he left Purge and others behind in the 2004 Arkansas Derby. That race led to the Oaklawn Challenge $5 million bonus for sweeping all three Oaklawn preps and winning the Kentucky Derby. Too bad for Friesan Fire's connections he' running in the year of massive economic woes (Frank Stronach's MEC tracks, including Pimlico Race Course in Maryland - site of The Preakness - just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection). But I'm sure they were more than pleased with the 60% winners share of the $600,000 purse from the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

And while Smarty Jones was undefeated through the Preakness Stakes, he wasn't considered a top-tier horse (won only a couple minor races at Philadelphia Park and Aqueduct) until his Oaklawn run, while Friesan Fire's start began at obscure Delaware Park but then followed through New York in his late fall campaign. He has truly blossomed over the Fair Grounds oval after racing with blinkers the past several starts. New Orleanians hope he will be the first LA Derby participant to claim the Run for the Roses since Funny Cide in 2003. Based on his seven career starts without a major break in racing action, Jones is expected to train him up to The Derby. By then, many "experts" will have forgotten about this consistent colt who has a classic sire in A.P. Indy, yet plenty of speed through his damsire - Dehere - that is displayed in his stalking running style. Speed that will come in handy getting to the first turn in good position on the first Saturday in May!

Louisiana Day at the Track

2009-03-12T14:49:00.003-05:00

What a race card The Fair Grounds Racecourse in New Orleans has assembled for Saturday... it's too bad mother nature may not co-operate!

In addition to the marquee Louisiana Derby, the top regional turf horses, handicap division and fillies (led by my main gal, Rachel Alexandra) will be in action on Saturday's card, with major purse money on the line. We'll see if Rachel can continue to best the speed times of her male counterparts while she tackles a small field in the Oaks race.

Other key Derby preps (Rebel Stakes, San Felipe Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby) will also be run on Saturday, but the Gentilly oval hosts the deepest and most intriguing field. The morning line favorite is a two-time winner over this course, Friesan Fire. The handsome son of A.P. Indy has had perfect stalking trips in the Le Comte and Risen Star Stakes leading up to Saturday's test, but many others are very capable of the upset at better odds. Papa Clem will be hammered at the windows after a horse he finished ahead of at Santa Anita (I Want Revenge) came back to demolish the Gotham field at Aqueduct last weekend. While I do like Papa Clem's controlling speed in the race, I'll stay away if the underlay odds situation develops as expected. A horse I am impressed with is Flying Pegasus, who ran a nice second to Friesan Fire last out while being caught wide and returning from a long layoff. The second race back angle may put this son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in the thick of things. In addition, Terrain's work tab has me thinking that local trainer-extraordinaire Al Stall has the 4th place Breeders' Cup Juvenile finisher cranked up for a big showing over the long stretch of the Fair Grounds course. Whoever your choices may be, you should get some decent odds in the exotics due to the deep field.

At Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned will try to fend off upstarts Wise Kid and Hamazing Destiny to stay at the top of most Derby watch lists. While Pioneer of the Nile has already chased away most serious competitors on the California circuit and Bob Baffert is looking for an easy win to keep his sights on Churchill Downs.

Good luck at the windows!

Speed Reigns Supreme

2009-03-02T20:59:00.003-06:00

This past Saturday two heralded sophomores reiterated their Derby hopes with convincing wins. A colt named The Pamplemousse made every post a winning one in his six-length romp at 1 1/8 miles, while a more Derby-esque sounding Quality Road blazed the shortened mile distance of this year's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park with a Beyer rating of 113. Quality Road is likely to face the uber-impressive allowance winner, Dunkirk, on the Gulfstream grounds in the Florida Derby on March 28th. I love the way Quality Road captured the FOY... after pressing a hot pace while being flanked down the backside, he opened up at the top of the stretch and actually "outkicked" a true closer in the Ken McPeek trained Theregoesjojo, who rallied for second as the second choice in the field of ten. Quality Road also has proven Derby bloodlines via his sire, Elusive Quality -- who produced Smarty Jones (2004) -- and damsire Strawberry Road who ran long and strong. Let's hope he got enough out of the one-turn race to do him some good down the road, when it really counts!

In major news out of Dubai over the weekend, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman injured a tendon in his final pre-race workout and is out of the Triple Crown picture. It's a good thing Street Sense bucked that "juvenile jinx" a couple of years ago or we'd be hearing all about it now.

Also noteworthy, Hall of Fame turf runner Manila passed away at the age of 26. The grandson of Northern Dancer had been serving as the Turkish Jockey Club's top sire for over a decade. Manila's signature moment came in the 1986 Breeders' Cup Turf, where he mowed down turf legend Theatrical en route to an Eclipse award in the male turf division.

Girls Gone Wild

2009-02-16T18:32:00.008-06:00

Sorry for the marketing ploy, but now that I have your attention let's talk about some damn fast fillies, shall we? Historically, I seldom bet fillies or mares in "open" contests, particularly in races greater than one mile (only due to statistical analysis and not because of chauvinism). But these fillies' numbers are talking out loud! Let's start at Oaklawn Park where the veteran conditioner Hal Wiggins stables Rachel Alexandra, who dominated nine fillies in The Martha Washington Stakes while finishing a full second faster than Old Fashioned in Monday's Southwest Stakes. Even more impressive is how Rachel Alexandra's split times compared, as she was fastest at the end of the race while winning "under wraps" according to the Equibase race chart. As I watched the filly run past the grandstand it appeared that jockey Calvin Borel was flashing thumbs ups half-way down the stretch the race was that out of reach.

This may be the first time many of you have heard the name Rachel Alexandra, who has taken time off since capturing the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last November. On that day, her winning time at 1 1/16 miles was also over a second faster than Derby trail colts Beethoven and Giant Oak. On the other hand, Old Fashioned - trained by Larry Jones, who knows a thing or two about tough fillies with Eight Belles - is at the top of most Kentucky Derby future books as well as the official favorite (other than the "field" bet) in Derby Futures Pool #1 that closed even before Old Fashioned's easy score in the Southwest. But if not for the (f) designation on the program next to Rachel Alexandra, the racing media might be all over this bay daughter of a former Oaklawn great, Medaglia d'Oro.

Meanwhile on the "left" coast, Evita Argentina is already shaking her tailfeathers at the boys, swooping from last to first in the most prestigious race of her career; the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Not to mention impressive Juvenile filly champion from last year, Stardom Bound, who last weekend kicked off her campaign with a victory in the Las Virgenes (G1) and is scheduled to tackle the boys soon to warrant her shot at The Kentucky Derby. Like Cyndi Lauper sang, Girls just wanna have fun!

On the Derby Trail...

2009-02-05T15:10:00.004-06:00

As February arrives so too does the concentration of major Derby preps. February 7th welcomes the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds and the Robert S. Lewis Stakes (formerly run as Santa Catalina Stakes) at Santa Anita, where highly regarded Pioneerof the Nile will be favored. Two other top 10 sophomores will square off in the Risen Star in Giant Oak and Friesan Fire. My own due diligence begins on President's Day at Oaklawn Park for the Southwest Stakes mile, where Remsen winner Old Fashioned appears to be the chalk after the defection of Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie. The Grade II San Vicente from Santa Anita will also be run on February 16th

Speaking of the Derby Trail, I have also mapped out my travel schedule which will include stops at Oaklawn Park (Southwest & AR Derby), Fair Grounds (LA Derby) and Gulfstream Park (FL Derby) in 2009. Now that we have some racing to talk about, I'll resume bi-weekly updates leading up to the week of The Kentucky Derby (May 2).

Good luck at the windows!
Eric

EURO Rising

2008-10-30T15:58:00.008-05:00

In light of recent events with the souring U.S. economy and overall poor reputation amongst the world community, it should come as no surprise that we've lost our dominance in international racing as well. The Euro based horses won 3 of 4 turf races and for good measure pulled off a couple upsets over the main track. And let me tell you, the Brits were on hand in numbers to revel in their success. I must have been in the Euro zone of Arcadia as the accents were thick on the bus ride back and throughout the pubs of Huntington Avenue. "We did it... we got first AND second!", proclaimed one expat. Quipped another, "Curlin who?"
To add insult to injury (to my pocket book, anyway) the next morning at breakfast the Lads next to my wife and I were calculating their U.S. witholding tax on their $6,000 profits (nearly 10,000 British pounds). Even our Sunday afternoon trip to the beach to watch the sun set into the Pacific Ocean from Duke's Bar at Malibu was crashed by a British family, fully stocked with Breeders' Cup accessories (presumably bought with 50 quid from winnings). They all bellied up to the tiki bar next to us ordering Mai Tais and toasting Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator.

In spite of my inept handicapping, I could not have enjoyed the warm and sunny day any more at Santa Anita -- the majestic racetrack beneath the San Gabriel mountains. You could clearly tell this wasn't the track's first rodeo. The 51,000 plus horse lovers were nothing for this facility to handle. After watching the post parade for the Classic go by the grandstand, I realized that I forgot to make my mother's bets. Rather than booking them like my brother would have done, I scurried to the ticket windows and had all bets placed within two minutes! Now this wouldn't have been possible during many Saturdays at Oaklawn Park, not to mention Belmont, Saratoga or Del Mar, at least not on the "big event" days I've attended.
There have been multiple criticisms of Santa Anita's Pro-Ride synthetic surface, particularly after Curlin's out-of-the money showing. Not a single horse won on the main track without previous success on either turf or a synthetic track, making any dirt form irrelevant. My personal argument is not that the surface favors turf runners, but rather thwarts the chances of a speed horse from winning, i.e. Pace no longer makes the race! The empirical data I provide is that a truly "neutral" track surface should result in front-runners winning at approximate percentages to those of stalkers and closers at various distances. However, only one dirt race resulted in any horse close to the lead winning (Midshipman in the Juvenile) and most winners came from the clouds. This is one lesson I will remember for the future, whether it be the Santa Anita Derby or next year's Breeders' Cup card, also slated for Santa Anita.

The biggest winner of the day was Dubai's Sheik Mohammed al Maktoum and his family. His wife, Princess Haya of Jordan, owns Classic winner Raven's Pass and Juvenile Turf winner Donativum. Sheik Mohammed's Darley Stud campaigns Juvenile winner Midshipman and owns the stallion Elusive Quality, sire of Raven's Pass. After being so kind to American owners by inviting runners such as Cigar, Silver Charm and Curlin to run for the gaudy purse money offered at the Dubai World Cup, Sheik Mohammed now has returned stateside to claim our richest prize. Let's hope this trend does not continue! They certainly have a live bullet going into next year's Derby with Midshipman. Speaking of The Derby, we finally have a several month reprieve to recharge our handicapping batteries prior to the spring Derby trail in February. I know that I sure need a break!

Breeders' Cup Picks

2008-10-23T21:35:00.018-05:00

After two nights of scouring the Daily Racing Form (aka,Bettor's Bible), I have been able to eliminate most of the favorites -- in my mind anyway! Those of you who have been to the track with me, or more likely who have heard one of many stories about how I lost a HUGE trifecta on a "head bob" know that I loathe the chalk. Won't touch it with a 10 foot pole, other than an occasional wheel with a long-shot choice. I obtain no excitement whatsoever by risking $5 to win $8. Now I have known some very astute handicappers who would gladly accept a 50% plus rate of return for close to a "sure thing," but those gentlemen have much more bank than me (even before the seemingly daily exhaustion of my 201k). Conversely, I delight in the notion that I can go to the track with a hundred bucks and come back with five grand and a 1099-G from Uncle Sam (hey, we've got to help "spread the wealth", right??).

So proceed with caution on the following "spot play" longshots and don't be calling next week harrassing me about my lousy handicapping skills. I already know that I hit a big trifecta about as often as the Cubs win a pennant... why do you think I have a real job?!

Here we go. It's rare that I play the first race or "daily double," since that is usually relegated to non-winners of two claiming races and I like to save my limited funds for the feature race. But on Breeders' Cup day, every race is a feature! Which reminds me, if you haven't realized it by now, all of the five filly and mare races will be run Friday and nine races will follow on Saturday. So let's try to get off to a fast start in the first Breeders' Cup race (Filly and Mare Sprint) by picking Zaftig (8-1) on top of Intangaroo and favorite Indian Blessing in an exacta part-wheel. Hopefully, you read my blog tribute to Cozzene and Princess Rooney earlier. Well, I'll be damned if the first race doesn't have a grandson of Cozzene (Zaftig) that is coming off a victory against Indian Blessing at a mile. Let's cash a nice ticket early and have some ammunition so we can really start firing at em!

The next race is the Fillies Juvenile Turf where I like Consequence (also at 8-1 odds) coming off a bullet work. She was a bit wide in her last 4th place effort but only beaten a half length. While I mentioned I don't like betting favorites, some of my best wins have been with "beaten favorites" a race or two later when the betting public have given up on them. Everybody can have a bad day at the office every now and then. Hell, it's nearly a daily occurrence with me lately. Let's hope this filly rewards our faith in her.

The Juvenile Fillies race is one that I'm most excited about. Perhaps my best long-shot pick of the weekend is C.S. Silk. Not only because of her two widening six length victories, but because jockey Robby Albarado chose to ride this one over the third choice, Dream Express. I would say this is a bit like inside information, but the kind you can't go to jail for. C.S. Silk is a whopping 15-1 on the morning line odds! I will box her with Stardom Bound and Sky Diva in exactas and trifectas.

In the Filly and Mare Turf I will take a shot with one of many European shippers, Folk Opera (10-1), who wreaks of class while being a perfect 3 for 4 at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Again, I'll box her with the favorites in the exotics. That leads us to the last race on Friday's card, the Ladies Classic. Optimistically, I'll be counting all my money at this point and can simply sit back and relish Zenyatta's quest for racing immortality.

Saturday's action is equally as appealing for my longshot hunches. I'll start in the 3rd race (Dirt Mile) by playing the speedball Two Step Salsa (15-1) across the board and boxing with deserving favorite, Well Armed. The next race is the Turf Mile, where I'll go against logic by playing an American horse, Thorn Song at 12-1. When I first saw this name, I immediately thought of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Thors Echo from several years ago. In addition, this one has speed to burn and has only lost as of late when going longer than one mile. Whatsthescript will be tough to beat, but the far outside post may compromise his chances.

Handicapping the Juvenile really had me perplexed, but I decided to give the nod to Square Eddie (9-2) based on his dominant Keenland romp over the polytrack surface. A hunch is telling me to bet a ticket or two on Mine That Bird at 30-1, who has dominated lesser foes north of the border at Woodbine in Canada.

Skipping ahead to the Breeders' Cup Turf, I tried over and again to beat the favorite, but couldn't. Soldier of Fortune (7-2) looks much the best in this race if he runs to form after his trans-Atlantic journey. Grand Couturier is also in excellent form and may complete the exacta. That brings us to the Classic, possibly Curlin's grand farewell. He certainly will be the focus of the event and without him in the race I would have stayed and watched from home. Many have already conceded the race to Curlin, quite a change in opinion from when trainer and owner wanted no part of a synthetic surface only one month ago. While I would love to see "little big red" in the winner's circle, I have come to expect a letdown after journeying to see Cigar and Smarty Jones clinch records after similar hype. Three of Europe's leading turf horses decided to give it a go in the Classic this year, thinking this may be their best shot on the synthetic surface. I believe that Duke of Marmalade has the class to challenge Curlin. At 10-1, this five time Group I winner this year is being grossly disrespected, probably due to his flat performance in his last start. Again, looking at the entire body of work, I expect a return to form for the Aidan O'Brien trained Coolmoore Farm standout. Go Between is heralded in California, as is three year-old Colonel John, who has took his time coming back after his gut-wrenching nose victory in the Travers Stakes in August. But the wild card in this race is Casino Drive, who scratched the week of the Belmont Stakes. This Japanese based horse and trainer then played hide and seek until two weeks ago, winning a conditioned allowance race at Santa Anita as his tune-up. Many "experts" are saying that his looks alone will put him in the winners' circle, whatever that means.

Good luck to all of your picks, as long as they don't interfere with my long-shot specials!
Eric

Horse Racing

Cozzene and Princess Rooney; Fallen Ivory Towers

2008-10-21T16:07:00.003-05:00

I have been neglectful in my duties as a racing historian to bring you sad news of the passing of two alabaster titans of racing and breeding. Cozzene and Princess Rooney passed away in symmetry on October 7th at the mirror age of 28. As you will read below, both of these beloved purebreds were intertwined with the inaugural Breeders’ Cup of 1984, of which we celebrate the 25th episode this weekend from Santa Anita. These two courageous horses are a significant reason why the Breeders’ Cup has enjoyed the success of becoming “Racing’s Greatest Day.”

Cozzene, a champion and Breeders’ Cup winner and sire of two Breeders’ Cup winners, was euthanized Oct. 7 at Gainesway Farm near Lexington. The 28-year-old gray son of Caro shared the distinctive look of his half-sister, Winning Colors (out of Caro), who also passed in February of this year. These two specimens gave special meaning to the phrase, “Bet grays on a cloudy day.” “Grays are supposed to have a shorter life because they often develop melanoma, which he has had for years,” said Gainesway president Antony Beck. “But it has never been uncomfortable for him. Until very recently, he was a happy horse, totally pain free.”

Cozzene raced as a homebred for Hall of Fame trainer John A. Nerud and was trained by Nerud’s son, Jan. He contested the first Breeders’ Cup Mile (in 1984 at Hollywood Park) and ran third behind Royal Heroine and Star Choice. Cozzene avenged that loss by winning the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Aqueduct the year he was voted grass champion male and later sired Breeders’ Cup winners Alphabet Soup and Tikkanen. Alphabet Soup beat the incomparable Cigar, who was third in the 1996 Classic at Woodbine. Tikkanen captured the 1994 Turf in course-record time at Churchill Downs.
For his career, Cozzene won 10 of 24 starts and earned $978,152. Nine of his 12 stakes wins or placings came on grass. Cozzene was North America’s leading sire by progeny earnings the year of Alphabet Soup’s Classic win. To date, Cozzene is represented by 81 stakes winners (9% from foals), as well as 79% starters and 59% winners from foals, of which these ratios represent a very sound stallion. Cozzene is represented by progeny lifetime earnings of $80 million and 156 stakes horses.

Princess Rooney was also euthanized on Oct. 7 at the age of 28 and has earned a resting place at the Kentucky Horse Park. Other legendary Thoroughbreds buried at the Kentucky Horse Park include Man o’ War, War Admiral, Forego, Bold Forbes, and John Henry. Specific ceremonial burial plans for Princess Rooney have still not been finalized.

Princess Rooney won the very first Breeders’ Cup Distaff run at Hollywood Park (1984) in grand style, winning by seven lengths -- a full second faster than that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Wild Again. As a result, she earned a lofty place on the list of Thoroughbred racing’s great mares and became the first Breeders’ Cup winner to be inducted into the National Museum of Racing’s Hall of Fame.

She had 17 wins (including five grade ones) and finished out of the money only once, earning $1,343,339 and the Eclipse Award for champion older mare for owner Paula Tucker under the tutelage of trainer Neil Drysdale. In the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she defeated champion 3-year-old female Life’s Magic, who won the Distaff and another Eclipse Award the following year. When she retired from the track Princess Rooney was sold for $5.5 million, the third-highest price ever paid for a broodmare at that time.

Matt Howard, farm manager at Gentry Farm, where Princess Rooney spent the last several years of her life, said: “Princess Rooney was not only an extraordinary athlete, but something truly special to many people. To her fans she was an amazing runner, a real ham in front of the camera, and an instant friend. The horsemen who worked with her found her to be very patient, gentle, and easygoing, yet found she still had that air of royalty about her.” Howard continued, “It was a blast having her. She was always mild-mannered and calm. She did wonders with the yearlings. I think she did more with our yearling fillies than anyone could teach them. We would start weaning our fillies and send them over to her, and she would keep them in line and teach them exactly what they need to do. She taught the younger generation how to be a good horse. I think if we had more mares like her my job would be a lot easier.”

(Statistics and quotes supplied by www.bloodhorse.com )

Horse Racing

Breeders' Cup teaser

2008-10-15T21:40:00.004-05:00

Big Brown may be out for the Classic, but come next Saturday I'm leaving on a jet plane, don't know if I'll be back again. The allure of seeing Curlin race in person again was just too much to resist. I previously saw the colt last spring at Oaklawn Park dominating other three year-olds. After all, the 25th anniversary of what John Forsythe (of "Dynasty" fame) originally coined as "Racing's Greatest Day" is about so much more than a two horse confrontation that wasn't meant to be. This culmination of the year's greatest equine performers has evolved into two days of truly world class thoroughbreds, thus, aptly renamed the "World Championships" of horse racing. Considering that picturesque Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California is one of the last remaining iconic racing venues I have yet to attend, what a way to check this one off my bucket list!

It's hard to believe that only one horse has ever successfully defending his Classic victory, back when Tiznow grittily held off Giant's Causeway and Sakhee en route to winning back to back Classic titles. Will that be Curlin's destiny on a synthetic surface where he's never even raced? Or will he face a similar fate to Unbridled, Cigar and Pleasantly Perfect, who all finished third trying to defend their Classic triumph? Curlin will certainly have to earn this victory with the likes of Go Between, Colonel John and the intriguing Japanese import Casino Drive, who was forced to scratch the week of the Belmont Stakes back in June. Win or lose (in my opinion, only if he loses), owner Jess Jackson stated he very well may race one more time before concluding his monumental career.

The other standout race, at least on paper, will be the Distaff, er... "Ladies Classic" by its proper name. Zenyatta tries to keep her unbeaten streak alive against rivals Hystericalady and Ginger Punch. Can you still call it a rivalry if one mare has dominated the same fields again and again? As an Arkansas Razorbacks fan, I have to loosely apply the term "rivalry." But seriously, this is one time I would have liked to see her connections go against conventional wisdom and give this monster mare a chance against the boys in the Classic. If the three year-old filly Eight Belles (God rest her soul) could trounce a decent group of boys (sans Big Brown), I would think that a more mature and physically imposing Zenyatta could hold her own against this group. But, they didn't ask this guy's opinion.

Finally, the Filly and Mare Turf division may be the deepest field of them all, with a nice blend of U.S. based runners and European invaders. The various ruling families of Dubai will be represented, as will top English and Irish operations, who traditionally do especially well in the Turf races. However, this year the synthetic surface is also likely to play into the imports hands since grass horses can generally translate success to the non-traditional surfaces as well.

I will have more specific tips/comments on most Breeders' Cup races middle of next week, after I have time to study the official entrants' charts that will be announced tomorrow. Just a reminder to my "bettor" friends that the DRF will be selling full past performances of all entries by the end of day tomorrow, giving you over a week to fine tune your handicapping... dangerous for sure! And for those of you without a local track or OTB nearby, please refer to the link below at www.bodoglife.com .

Eric

Horse Racing

Big Brown down and out for good

2008-10-13T11:32:00.002-05:00

The dream matchup between defending Horse of the Year, Curlin, and three year-old sensation, Big Brown, will now be an everlasting "what if" after Big Brown was retired this morning after sustaining an injury to his right front foot (not the same hoof pictured from Belmont Stakes in photo) during his Aqueduct turf course workout. Furthermore, it seems just as doubtful as to Curlin's status for the Breeders' Cup Classic with trainer Asmussen awaiting his final workout this afternoon before the race entry deadline tomorrow. My gut is that this will give Team Curlin an easy "out" for the race, opting instead for another Grade I dirt race (possibly in Hong Kong, an international mecca for thoroughbred racing) prior to retiring as the richest of all time. The general consensus is that the vast contingent from across the pond will have an advantage in the big race due to their grass/synthetic emphasis, which translates to success on the Santa Anita polytrack.

How quickly things can unravel such a promising event (kind of like the stock market these days). Of course, I probably jinxed this race after my wife asked this weekend the chances of an injury to Curlin or Big Brown. I was getting ready to book my accomodations to Los Angeles for next weekend. I thought at this point, perhaps one of the entrants would be injured in their final workout and scratched from the Classic, which translates to less than 15% that it would happen to either of these.

As a whole, the Breeders' Cup event is shaping up as a true international event with many super-talented horses. I will have an overview of key races after the entries are established mid-week.

Eric

Horse Racing

Curlin surpasses Cigar's money record in Gold Cup, Big Brown next?

2008-09-28T11:04:00.011-05:00

Move over Cigar and make way for the first $10 million purse winner in North America -- Curlin. Steve Asmussen conceded that this record was his #1 priority in bringing back Curlin for his 4 year-old season, not quite as altruistic as the reasons majority owner Jess Jackson stated for bringing back the champ. “I want to establish Curlin for what I think he is,” Jackson said. “He’s one of the horses of the century.” Trainer Steve Asmussen challenges industry peers on Mr. Jackson's decision to bring Curlin back as a four year-old, stating, "I want to meet the person who would leave so much money on the table for the sport of seeing what their horse could accomplish." If these statements were not just fanciful fodder (all too common in this industry), there is only one choice Team Curlin is left with... face Big Brown mano E mano in the Classic.

Timeform Global Rankings of Great Britian list Curlin as the top rated horse in the world, with Big Brown at #3. They comment on the two American standouts as follows, "Big Brown returned after an eight week break at Monmouth Park and showed plenty of determination to win the Haskell Invitational (gr. I). Whether the much-anticipated meeting with Curlin ever takes place seems doubtful, but there’s every chance that Big Brown will be right back at his best with that run behind him and that would be good enough to make Curlin have to pull out all the stops."

More on that likely date in the Breeders' Cup in future blog entries. I want to remind folks of the monumental record that Curlin took away from the great Cigar. Most remember Cigar for his 16 consecutive wins, tying Citation's North American win streak in major competition. In Cigar's first of two champion seasons (1995-1996), he was a perfect 10 for 10 with eight of those victories coming in Grade I races, facing the best of the best. Coming back to the track as a six year-old (yes, you heard that right...6!) he won the inaugural running of the Dubai World Cup in thrilling fashion. And while probably a little weary from the travel to and fro, managed to win several more graded races before the streak ended, routinely carrying more than 130 pounds. Cigar's last two career defeats were mostly chalked up to him being past his prime. I would argue that poor racing luck and career performances by Skip Away (carrying 5 fewer pounds and the controlling speed) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Alphabet Soup in the 1996 Breeders' Cup Classic (Bailey again had Cigar extremely wide on the turn, yet lost by only a head in a 3 way photo) were more probable reasons for defeat.

Skip Away and now Curlin have also carried 130 pounds or more, with Curlin topping that impost in each of his two victorious Dubai races this spring. It's no wonder then that these three horses are the top money earners of their generation. Although, Curlin now has an opportunity to put some daylight between himself and the rest of the field in this category, just as he routinely does on the racetrack.

I'll have a Breeders' Cup preview in the next week or so. The big dates for Breeders' Cup 25 are October 24-25 at Santa Anita race track in the Los Angeles area.

Horse Racing

Garrett Gomez pulls off Travers - Pacific Classic double

2008-08-25T18:29:00.003-05:00

Jockey Garrett Gomez sure has come a long way from from his riding days at Oaklawn Park in the mid 1990s. After winning Saturday's Travers Stakes at venerable Saratoga by the slimmest of margins (on my Derby pick from this spring, Colonel John), he guided Go Between astutely to a neck victory in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. As if the biggest Grade I races of the summer weren't enough, he preceded his PacClassic victory with another impressive triumph on Whatsthescript in the $328,000 Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. IIT), giving that horse a perfect turf trip and making him one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile later this fall. WinStar Farm nearly accomplished the improbable double, with Well Armed grudgingly giving up the lead in the final stride to Go Between in the $1 million Pacific Classic.

The Travers Stakes was quite a horse race (although some people thought it was more like a stock car race with all the bumping on the turn for home) with the Colonel stealing one with an extended head bob after being passed on the outside by Mambo in Seattle. Where the hell did this horse come from? We thought Big Brown was a late blooming three year-old colt, but this one still can do some damage before the year is over. Post-time favorite Pyro had a decent race to finish third. But absent yet again was the powerful stretch kick he showed twice earlier over the Fair Grounds course. It appears that his best racing days may be behind him. Jim Dandy winner Macho Again had some traffic trouble, but appeared to be retreating when it occured. Nick Zito's trio of charges, most notably Belmont winner Da'Tara, were hopelessly overmatched.

It's time to give Garrett Gomez some major props after he hit rock bottom in 2003 when he was serving prison time. Gomez got busted for a controlled substance while being away from the sport after he was unable to maintain the stringent weight guideline for jockeys. After working his way back to the track in late 2004, he had tremedous success in 2006 while leading North American jockeys with purse money earned at $20 million (by the way, his cut is 10% plus private retainers... not bad for a high school dropout!). He was snubbed at the Eclipse Awards that year in lieu of Edgar Prado and his memorable season with Barbaro. But in 2007 he backed that season up and then some while breaking Jerry Bailey's record for most stakes victories in a season at 76 (including two Breeders' Cup races).

Speaking of Jerry Bailey, is it just me or is he tremendously overrated as an analyst? I mean, the guy may have been a world class jockey, but Randy Moss' predictions of horses expected to show speed and pace figures are much more on point than his alien-shaped head counterpart. But that sure doesn't stop Bailey from hawking his handicapping DVD at every segment. And while I'm on the subject, the only thing Hank Goldberg has been "hammering" as of late is his piggy bank -- to find loose change. This guy has run out of his bankroll the last three ESPN racing coverages that I've seen, yet he was bragging about not losing a race prior to ESPN's coverage around the 8th race. Sure... great job hitting that non-winners of two lifetime race that NOBODY cares about. Why would he even be handicapping "crap races" with a card like Del Mar had Sunday? And would somebody please send Jenine Edwards a scarf so she can cover up the horse veins in her neck? I keep waiting for one of those things to burst all over Rick Dutrow's sweat laden shirt during an interview. Maybe then Rick would stop calling her "Babe." Where's Kenny Mayne when you need him?!

Horse Racing

Remembering the Greatness of 3 Fillies - Genuine Risk Tribute

2008-08-20T20:10:00.004-05:00

This week we mourn the loss of the second of three fillies to capture The Kentucky Derby. More painfully, we suffer the loss of three heroines of racing within a six month span... 2 Derby winners (Genuine Risk - 1980 and Winning Colors - 1988) and this year's Derby runner-up, Eight Belles. I guess there is something to the saying that bad things happen in "three's".

Genuine Risk (February 15, 1977 – August 18, 2008) was a chestnut mare who won the 1980 Kentucky Derby and was the first filly to ever finish in the money in all three U.S. Triple Crown races. Ridden by Jacinto Vasquez, she finished second in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes -- an extraordinary feat for any horse, male or female.

High hopes followed the star of the prized Firestone Stable into the breeding shed, but only heartache ensued. Genuine Risk's first mating was to the Triple Crown winner Secretariat in 1982. The resulting foal expected in 1983 would have made history as the first offspring of two Kentucky Derby winners. Tragically though, Genuine Risk delivered a stillborn colt. Over the next 17 years, she produced only two living foals and neither colt ever made it to the track.

Winning Colors was euthanized February 17, 2008 at the age of 23 as a result of complications from colic, a chronic horse condition. She did not have a great deal of success as a broodmare either, although some of her progeny did well racing in Japan. The original femme fatale, Regret (1915 Derby winner), likewise produced only one major stakes winner (Revenge) out of eleven foals and died at the age 22.

To end on a positive note, I will gladly report that 2007 Belmont Stakes winning filly (besting 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin), Rags to Riches, is in foal to Giant's Causeway and expecting a wobbly four-legger in spring 2009. Let's hope that baby is also a healthy filly and carries on the tradition of excellence!

Travers Stakes coming this Saturday, so please check back for weekend updates.
Eric

Horse Racing

Can Big Brown put his best foot forward?

2008-07-30T21:45:00.002-05:00

With a victory Sunday in the $1 Million Haskell Invitational, Big Brown can put his troubled past behind him and leapfrog Curlin to become the "it" horse again. This seems likely after a steady foundation of improving workouts, especially against his projected competition. While Atoned and Fountain of Youth upset winner Cool Coal Man are legitimate threats, the better lot of three year-olds wrestled in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga this past weekend. One time top sophomore Pyro couldn't quite catch Macho Again (2nd in Preakness) for the win in that race, while Belmont Stakes shocking winner Da'Tara was a factor again on the lead, before being pressed and finishing last. Tale of Ekati and Anak Nakal were also off the board finishers, but any of these would have been a strong second choice if entered in Sunday's Haskell.

In the other top race this weekend, Tough Tiz's Sis tries to finally get the better of undefeated (6 for 6)Zenyatta for trainer Bob Baffert in the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap over Del Mar's Polytrack surface on Saturday. Many of you based at Oaklawn Park will recall the incredible performance by Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Handicap (Grade I), while blowing past defending Breeders' Cup Distaff winner and Eclipse Mare Champion Ginger Punch. The latter mare strolled to another Grade I vicoty in the Go For Wand at Saratoga last weekend. Thus, these two are set for an epic rematch in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita this fall.

And to finish with Curlin... still no definitive word on his next start. This leads me to believe they are re-thinking the European foray and trying to map out the best three race sequence possible which ends with a Breeders' Cup race (I'm just not sure which one!).

Happy Racing,
Eric

Horse Racing

Man o' War field proves too deep for Curlin

2008-07-19T16:57:00.004-05:00

Ordinarily, running a strong second in a Grade I turf race against multiple Breeders' Cup Turf champions would be a great thing. However, Curlin is no ordinary horse and his connections were thus stymied by his second place finish to Red Rocks at Belmont Park. And the 8,400 fans on hand at the Elmont, NY track probably wasn't what majority owner Jess Jackson had in mind after vowing to bring the champion back "for the fans to see and enjoy" for his four year-old campaign. It seems as though the fans were as lukewarm about Curlin on the lawn as the Champ himself, without his customary powerful stretch kick.

After all, this was the same place where Triple Crown junkies were delirious after the unforgettable stretch duel between Curlin and filly Rags to Riches just over a year ago in the Belmont Stakes. Even though this race had the marquee names (Curlin in addition to Breeders' Cup Turf champions Red Rocks and Better Talk Now), the race failed to match the anticipation with Red Rocks taking the lead from two speedballers with Curlin and Better Talk Now never seriously threatening the winner, which is unusual for a turf race finish.

Curlin coming up a bit short for the second time he's run over 10 furlongs (1 3/8ths on Saturday) makes me think his best distance isn't suited for the classis European turf races typically run at 1 1/2 miles. Let's hope Plan B or even C may be to work Curlin on a synthetic surface to possibly keep the dream alive of a Breeders' Cup Classic double, something the great Cigar could not even accomplish. With the trend of race tracks adopting the artificial dirt surfaces, success there could mean more value to future stud fees than success on the turf.

In the meantime, may all your bets be worth cashing!

Horse Racing

DRUGS, DRUGS AND MORE DRUGS

2008-06-27T10:33:00.003-05:00

More bad press on the racing front, especially for the conditioners. And we're not talking about small stables at obscure tracks like Emerald Downs, mind you (no offense to the Seattle area track). What I can't figure out is why all these global pharma companies are losing money if most human athletes, and now their equine counterparts, are doping? Perhaps the decline is attributable to cyclists giving up "the juice" now that the Tour de France is enforcing their drug policies. Now there's a novel concept!

Larry Jones, the popular "cowboy trainer" of filly heroine Eight Belles and Hard Spun from last year's Derby trail, was shocked recently by officials at his home base of Delaware Park. Racing stewards informed Jones that Stones River had tested positive for illegal levels of clenbuterol -- a bronchodilator that helps burn fat and promote muscle growth -- after a race at Delaware Park this month. This was the first charge against Jones in 25 years as a trainer. He alleges that he was "targeted" by someone wanting to defame him after his vehement testimony against drugs in the Eight Belles aftermath. This is very plausible considering his clean record and how easy it would be in a low security environment to gain access to a claiming horse's stall.

What's a drug story without Rick Dutrow? Well that may be a tad harsh, but hasn't he asked for that with his skiddish behavior on the Triple Crown trail? Slick Rick is facing a 15-day suspension after one of his horses that raced on Kentucky Oaks day was found in violation of state medication rules. The ruling from the stewards at Churchill Downs came after an excess of clenbuterol was found in the system of Salute the Count following his second-place finish in the May 2 Aegon Turf Sprint. Clenbuterol is used to treat horses with allergies and breathing problems. It is widely used in training but under Kentucky racing guidelines should not be given to horses closer than three days before a race. So this infraction is mild compared to his previous issues in New York and Maryland, the foundation of his regular racing circuit.

And then the final shoe dropped (hopefully) yesterday, when trainer Steve Asmussen was notified that a horse in his care tested positive for the Class 2 substance lidocaine following a May 10th maiden special weight race at Lone Star Park. The Texas native was previously slapped with a six-month suspension from July 10, 2006, to Jan. 10, 2007 after a horse in his care tested positive for the anesthetic mepivicaine in Louisiana (and a similar infraction in New Mexico).

Naturally, his lawyer said Asmussen would "fight the charge." What these trainers need to be fighting is the urge to use the myriad of substances that can give a horse the edge needed to hit the wire first! However, as we have recently seen with another sports failure in MLB that I also hold in high regard, it is clear to me that the league is most guilty of "failure to supervise" or "lack of institutional control", or whatever you want to call it.

Horse racing has admitted their shortcomings and have pledged to swiftly close these proverbial loopholes, while Bud Selig pointed fingers at everyone except himself. So let me get this straight, the Commissioner has the authority to UNILATERALLY ban someone from baseball (Charlie Hustle should be in Cooperstown), but he's "allegedly" powerless to list banned illegal substances from baseball? Gimme a freakin' break...

Go Cubbies!!!

The UNluckiest horseshoe on earth???

2008-06-25T09:09:00.004-05:00

There have been several significant stories (some largely unnoticed) on the national and international racing scene that are worthy of mentioning.

1) Spike Lee, aka Mars Blackman, coined the famous Nike ad with Michael Jordan, "It's got to be the shoe." The "shoe" now in the limelight is Big Brown's back right shoe, which as photos captured came loose towards the beginning of the Belmont Stakes. Many have authoritatively claimed this as the excuse to why Big Brown ran so poorly, while others discounted the importance of a loose shoe during a race, especially when the horse shows no inflamation in that area following the race. It's too bad for IEAH et al that all of Brown's shoes weren't glued on, like the front hoof getting all the special treatment with the quarter crack. One thing for sure, this shoe saga is now every bit as famous as the safety pin incident with Spectaculat Bid in 1979.

2) Jeremy Rose of Afleet Alex fame (2005 Preakness, Belmont) and Eclipse Award holder as top apprentice jockey has been suspended for six months for "extreme misuse of the whip" in a race yesterday at Delaware Park. Rose struck his mount, Appeal to the City, on the face which resulted in bleeding around the left eye. Certainly not a positive for this sport that is under attack on all fronts (see next point). I have yet to see the replay but I would like to give Jeremy the benefit of the doubt and hope this falls under the "accident" category. Which still leads you to wonder why these wire bound "tools" are permitted if something like this could EVER happen in a race. While I can understand the value of using a whip (keeping horses straight in stretch, telling a horse it's GO TIME), perhaps the nature of the crop should be given a gentile makeover or eliminated altogether (it's a level playing field if no one has one, right??).

3) Thoroughbred industry leaders reported for testimony last week in Washington at the House Energy and Commerce Committee's commerce, trade and consumer protection subcommittee. Congress basically reminded our sport that they gave horse racing the legal right to broadcast races and take bets across state lines, and now the industry needs more regulation. Rep. Ed Whitfield, a Republican from Kentucky's 1st District said that he expects to introduce legislation to ban the use of drugs in racing and require uniform collection and disclosure of medical information and injury and fatality data. He said that given the small amount of time left in this Congress, the legislation was likely to be proposed next year (seems like I've heard that one a few times!). However, this will not address the issues in breeding (or should I say, inbreeding) for SPEED, SPEED, SPEED leading to a more fragile horse running fewer races, all topics discussed by Arthur Hancock, a lifelong horse breeder.

4) A Queen is back in the winner's circle at Royal Ascot for the first time in 9 years. Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her first victory since 1999 at the famous English track when her horse Free Agent won the Chesham Stakes. "The queen was absolutely thrilled, and after they passed the post she said, 'I've done it!' " reported her racing manager, John Warren. And we were led to believe that racing was the Sport of Kings...

No Brown Crown... Curlin to the Turf

2008-06-21T11:17:00.003-05:00

Now that the Belmont dust has settled, it appears that it simply was a bad day at the track for Big Brown, who's stock has dropped as much as his corporate namesake, UPS. Rick Dutrow is pointing the strapping son of Boundary for a new campaign to include the Haskell Inviational at Monmouth Park in August and perhaps the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. If Brown again has his way with these nominal three year-olds, he will perhaps get the chance to go up against older horses in the 25th rendition of The Breeders' Cup Classic to be held at Santa Anita Park in late October.

One horse that is on quite a different path is Curlin, the recent winner of another Grade I race in the Stephen Foster Handicap, where much was made of the excessive weight assigned to Robby Albarado's saddle (128 pounds including the jock). Although the 10 to 15 pounds Curlin spotted his foes never factored into his four length victory, Steve Asmussen was quick to generate an excuse, if needed. He knows the burden of carrying even a few extra pounds, especially if the race were to unfold unfavorably for Curlin. In Cigar's penultimate performance in 1996, he finished a nose behind Skip Away after falling prey to very soft fractions (1:11 2 and 1:35 4) and being forced wide on the clubhouse turn. Although he nearly made up the difference in positioning and pace, perhaps the five pounds he was spotting the younger and highly talented Skip Away was too much to overcome. Asmussen knows (take note, Dutrow!) that things can -- and often do -- go wrong on the track and that every disadvantage can lead to defeat.

So rather than lobby weight assignments the rest of the year, Steve and majority owner Jess Jackson will pursue a brief turf campaign prior to retiring their champion, hoping to extend Curlin's win streak of five races on the lawn, while increasing his value at stud. For those of you who question or even criticize this decision, we must recall another chestnut horse some decades ago who finished his career with two impressive turf victories after proving dominance over dirt tracks. That horse's name, anyone? Secretariat.

Dutrow sweating Big Brown's loss

2008-06-10T10:14:00.005-05:00

Dutrow is proving exactly why the pulse of the racing public was against this Triple Crown bid. Missed press conferences, finger pointing and excuses have emerged from "Camp Big Brown", now being led by IEAH co-President, Michael Iavarone. Here's a guy who's lied about a degree and phantom employment at Goldman Sachs, instead working at three penny stock pushing investment firms I've never heard of. He's been fined and censured by the NASD, sued by an Atlantic City casino and the Kenneland Association horse sales for not paying for horses bid at auctions... talk about a scumbag!! Even Big Brown wants nothing to do with this dude -- see picture at left.

For all the sports journalists out there who were on record as saying they didn't want this horse to sweep the Triple Crown, there is a collective sigh of relief. I must admit, on the far turn I was giddy with joy myself as I knew Big Brown was running out of steam, although I didn't care for Kent easing him with two furlongs remaining. Many bettors are demanding a refund (no chance), but more likely what may happen is jockey Kent Desormeaux being fined by the NYRA stewards for "competition infractions" by pulling up a non-injured horse prior to the race order being determined.

"I'm sure he didn't have any idea what the hell was going on going into the first turn the way (Desormeaux) was switching him all over the damn track," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "I don't know what he was doing." He went on to say, "I feel like a loser right now, and I don't know why. Usually when I get beat I can handle it the right way, and I've handled this the right way, but I just feel like something's not right." What world is this guy living in? The only thing I've seen him do "right" is soil a shirt more than Bruce Pearl could on his best day!

So what did happen to Big Brown, people keep asking. Theories abound about the quarter crack, missed training and especially the steroids he didn't take prior to the Belmont. That may be reaching a bit since he hadn't taken his Winstrol (allegedly) dose since mid-April and performed fine in crushing his opponents in The Derby and Preakness. I conclude that a number of factors (3rd race in 5 weeks, scorching heat, apparent rankness fighting Kent's positioning early in race, breaking a step slow) threw Big Brown off his game and resulted in a bad day at the office. These do occasionally happen to all of us, you know?!

Kudos to Nick Zito, the new "giant killer" (with apologies to Allen Jerkens) of the Triple Crown. Nick, of course, conditioned another $70+ horse in Birdstone to knock off Smarty Jones in 2004's Belmont Stakes. But that one already had a Grade 1 win over the track as a two year-old. This Da'Tara came as quite a shock, being eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime race and going off as the longest shot on the board. Dennis of Cork rallied for second behind this soft pace to prove his worth as a sophomore. The Travers at Saratoga may be an interesting race with the top 3 year-olds all pointing for the late August "midsummer's Derby".

For now, the focus in deservedly back on the #1 rated thoroughbred in the world -- Curlin, as he prepares for his U.S. comeback in the Stephen Foster Handicap this Saturday at Churchill Downs. Let's hope this superstar can keep to his winning days.

Jim McKay Tribute

2008-06-08T20:01:00.006-05:00

Jim McManus died at the age of 86 years young on Saturday just hours prior to the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes. While McManus (McKay was his professional name) is most associated with the man who brought us the unfolding events of the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis, he often said his greatest joy was covering thoroughbred racing and the Triple Crown events. Jim was the host that popularized ABC's Wide World of Sports for nearly four decades and brought the sights and sounds of the Olympics into American homes. During a career that "spanned the globe" for nearly 60 years, McKay was one of the greatest witnesses of 20th-century sports history.

McKay's first television broadcast assignment was a horse race at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore. It was the start of a love affair, which he shared with the nation each spring through his introductions to Triple Crown events for ABC Sports until NBC took over recently. It's a pity we now have to endure Bob Costas' linguistical vainglorious after being swayed by McKay's subtle balance.

Track announcer Dave Johnson worked with McKay during many horse racing telecasts.
"How many Saturday afternoons did we spend with Jim McKay?" he said from Belmont Park. "Maybe more than with family members. Never a cross word out of him, such a decent human being."

No more eloquent words can be spoken of Jim that what he once stated himself describing his passion, "There are few things in sport as exciting or beautiful as two strong thoroughbreds, neck and neck, charging toward the finish."

My Belmont wrap will soon follow...