Jess Jackson Dies -- Horse Racing loses an Advocate

It is reported that Jess Jackson (who at age 9 actually saw Seabiscuit race, creating a lifelong fascination with horses) passed away this morning at his Sonoma County, California home after courageously battling melanoma cancer for a number of years. He was 81 years young and his passion and zest for life (especially horses) was displayed several times over the past few years in triumphs with Champions Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

For the record I must state that I have previously been critical of Mr. Jackson's handling of Rachel Alexandra in her 2010 campaign. But the fact is that he was primarily responsible for setting the stage for her historic 2009 perfect nine race season in the first place that created so much positive attention and ushered in countless new fans to racing that were desperately needed (many of which were female, critically important in a predominantly "man's sport").

Never having personally met this man, I feel a humbling sense of loss today for several reasons. Most notably, I could tell that this proud man was struggling with the symptoms of cancer recently since I lost my own father to this disease last January. Yet he had the courage to never complain about his physical limitations or struggles and didn't let it stop him from ambitious journeys with first Curlin and then Rachel Alexandra, where he was present for nearly every race.

Also let me remind all that Mr. Jackson was particularly concerned with making positive changes in our equine community and filed lawsuits that were eventually settled in his apparent favor with multiple agents and parties concerning the transparency of commissions and fees in horse auctions (should sound familiar to you financial folks!). Having just purchased a two-year old at public auction myself, it's reassuring that someone has taken "the institution" to task and criticized the complex relationships and under the table payments with regards to horse transactions between multiple parties (consignor, buyers and sellers agents, trainer, etc.). This unscrupulous behavior by more than just a few parties has kept countless potential owners - and dollars - from entering our beloved sport.

Here is a quote on the topic from Arthur Hancock, Jr., a famed Kentucky breeder, published in a 2006 New York Times article by Joe Drape. "We don't do that and have lost business because of it. When you tell them no, you understand that they are never coming back to buy one of your horses. Honest sellers can't compete with those who cheat. I'm a fourth-generation horseman, and I'm ashamed that a winemaker has to clean up our sport."

Speaking of wine, Jess Jackson (like most T'bred owners) entered our sport only after amassing a very large fortune building a wine empire from scratch. He revolutionized American vintners with the release of Kendall-Jackson's Vintner's Reserve Chardonnay in the early 1980s. A couple of my favorite quotes from Mr. Jackson follow... "Wine is a part of our cultural heritage. It has always been the traditional partner with food. Wine celebrates friends, family, and love – all of the best things in life." “From day one we have been a family-owned and family-run business. It is a distinction that is rapidly becoming a rarity in our industry. Our family culture is built on the time-honored principles of hard work, integrity, and uncompromising desire for quality and the long-term stewardship of the land.” Left to cherish the memory of this titan of agriculture are his wife and partner in Stonestreet Farms and Stables, Barbara Banke, five children; Jennifer Hartford, Laura Giron, Katie Jackson, Julia Jackson and Christopher Jackson, and two grandchildren.

A sad start to my day indeed, which happens to be my wedding anniversary. But perhaps tonight during a nice candlelit dinner with my wife, better memories will surface. Memories like that special September day in 2009 when Jess and I were two of the 31,171 fans in attendance to witness Rachel's perfection - a day that perhaps even Jess counted as one of his best. Thus, the picture you see in this article is how I will remember this man - a jubilant champion! Especially since I am in the background just left of his raised trophy. And tonight I will raise a toast to Jess (and to my wife, of course) with what else - a glass of Kendall-Jackson Vintner's Reserve! Godspeed my friend.
Eric

Derby Top 10 - April 8 update

Top 10 removals: I will be removing Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky due to poor performance and forced to scratch Premier Pegasus and To Honor and Serve due to injuries - all within past two days! At this point, I'm not sure I can even find four new horses to meet my quota, but I'll give it the good old college try...

1) Dialed In – In my last update I stated, "Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville." At this point, I would almost rather he lost the close decision in the Florida Derby to 70-1 shot Shackleford. Then even more skeptics would be saying for two races in a row he wasn't good enough to beat long-shot winners. But if you've heard me say it once, you've heard it a thousand times from me that "pace makes the race." In spite of apparent legit fractions, the track was clearly displaying a speed bias as the only horse in the 8 horse field who gained ground from the 6th to 9th furlong was Dialed In, a remarkable statistic! With the unprecedented changes in my top 10 list this year with the long-shot winners and numerous injuries, this guy has reassured me why he's been my top pick all along. He may need that extra week or two prior to The Derby to recoup from his furios stretch drive.

2) Santiva – Still waiting for next weekend's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has performed well as a 2YO. Likely the most versatile colt heading towards Louisville in that he has run well pressing the pace but has also circled the field to win. Should be a small price in his final prep and I'm tempted to make a large exacta wager and hope for yet another huge long-shot to key a nice exotic payoff!

3) Uncle Mo – A bizarre Derby trail could become a historically insane year if 'Mo is upstaged on Saturday. He is less susceptible to upset since he is usually the controlling speed that can prevent another horse let alone on a dawdling pace. Very few 3YO's can withstand the rigors of The Derby without having been tested and the undeniable fact is that this one has had the easiest route to Louisville, possibly ever! If The Factor runs well at Oaklawn next weekend and goes Derby bound that could throw a wrench in Mo's plans if he's not able to rate. He very much reminds me of a Quality Road type - uber talent with pure speed, but these types sometime come undone in big races.

4) Mucho Macho Man – Didn't have a great Louisiana Derby but the pace didn't really set up for his stretch run. Disturbing that he got passed that easily by 36-1 shot maiden winner Nehro for the place, but sometimes closers too close to the lead will run evenly. The bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. With this breeding advantage at longer distances, I'm keeping him relatively high on the list.

5) Astrology - Not sure why Asmussen decided to wait so long for his unveiling, perhaps he knew he could pick up enough earnings in two preps. Sharp second in the 800K Sunland Derby (don't laugh, Mine That Bird went that route!) after pressing a very fast pace and fighting gamely in the stretch off a four month layoff at 1 1/8 miles. Just read today where A.P. Indy has been pensioned from stud duty due to infertility and how appropriate would it be for one of his youngest sons to get the chefs-de-race sire on the board in the world's greatest horse race.

6) Jaycito – Baffert had to scratch from the Santa Anita Derby this weekend due to a lingering hoof abcess, but will send him to the Coolmore Lexington Stakes just two weeks prior to The Derby. I actually like this race pattern, as opposed to sitting out 6 weeks - especially with such a fresh horse. Typically comes from the clouds so he will need an average or better pace in Derby, but with these long-shots going forward, several may decide if they can't win The Derby they want to say the led "a few laps" and make the pace hotter.

7) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.

8)Silver Medallion - This year's turf/synthetic specialist who is trying conventional dirt for the first time in the SA Derby. Smartly bred grandson of Silver Deputy out of a Stalwart mare could be dangerous this weekend and again on May 7th if he takes to the dirt, as his breeding suggests he could do. I'm a big fan of the underrated Silver Deputy - Deputy Minister blood and this one could verify my hunch.

9) Anthony's Cross - Well raced as a 2YO, he has switched results with a couple others on this list but seems to be doing well at the moment. If you watch his gutsy Robert Lewis Stakes victory, it's hard to see how any horse could ever run by this guy. Should run well in the SA Derby as he's proven he likes the track and could punch his ticket to the big dance with a win, place, or possibly even show effort.

10)Brethren - Was back and forth between this one and Alternation - the Von Hemel Distorted Humor colt I was backing in The Rebel who flipped in the stall and had to scratch. Brethren's older brother Super Saver had a poor race at Tampa Bay Downs last spring also before running second in the ARK Derby and then taking the roses, so that's good enough for my last spot.

Enjoy the Derby preps this weekend and let's continue to pull for Uncle Mo to win handily to set the stage in Louisville.

Happy Racing!

Kentucky Derby Top 10 list - March 20

Another two weekends of prep races have come and gone, yet I am stuck in a rut with my Derby handicapping. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a flop with two bomb long-shots completing the $2,200 exacta (on a $2 bet!). Now don't get me wrong, I prefer a mid-priced horse winning here and there to spark a nice payoff. But this race outcome reminded me of the Rockamundo shocker at 100-1 in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, Calvin Borel's first major victory. At least it was a nice and sunny day at the Oldsmar, FL track with a festive crowd in attendance.

But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!

Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).

1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.

2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.

3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.

4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).

5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.

6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.

7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.

8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.

9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.

Happy Racing!
E

Uncle Mo tops weekend preps

What we are fairly sure of is that Uncle Mo will run on Saturday, although still not positive where - in the Tampa Bay Derby or Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, an "overnight" stakes (assuming enough horses enter) created to fit the specs of Pletcher. When the race was originally scheduled to be run at 8.5 furlongs, there was a chance that Dialed In and Uncle Mo would have gone head to head in this ungraded race at Gulfstream. But after owner Mike Repole made the case to Gulfstream's racing secretary to shorten the race to a one-turn mile for Uncle Mo, Nick Zito looked elsewhere to get valuable two-turn experience for his son of Mineshaft, even though that meant in a small field against older horses. So even though Dialed In ran a fast closing second after spotting a dawdling pace, perhaps this could be more meaningful than anything Mo may do this weekend.

I, for one, hope Mo is on or pressing the pace and wins in a blistering time in the Timely Writer. Based on this year's early favorites running poorly (Comma to the Top, To Honor and Serve, Tapizar), not running at all (Jaycito, Astrology) or off the trail (Boys at Tosconova), a strong showing by Mo on Saturday will create a virtual walkover in the Wood Memorial and essentially put his odds at even money come the first Saturday in May. And to beat him on that day with more battle tested horses means a five figure trifecta payout!


I'm not going to release my third Top 10 list under after Mo's first appearance on the trail, but elsewhere this weekend on the left coast, Jaycito and Comma to the Top look to stay in The Derby fray in The San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the new, lightning-fast Santa Anita dirt track.

Also, next weekend's Rebel Stakes at my beloved home track of Oaklawn Park is setting up to be a doozy. The Factor, Astrology and Sway Away from California are likely to join the top five finishers from the Southwest Mile (won by ArchArchArch) and multiple Oaklawn allowance winner Alternation, the son of Distorted Humor who won on the undercard to the Southwest in a faster time. With this many horses still fighting for precious graded stakes money, an off-the-board finish in the Rebel may mean goodbye to The Derby trail (and hello to the lower rungs, like the Lone Star or West Virginia Derby).

Good luck at the betting windows this weekend! I'll publish my report from the Tampa Bay Derby next week.

Pillow Talk - Zenyatta and Rachel in the news again!

In my four years of publishing this blog, I have never (and likely never to again) had an opportunity to comment on a breeding session. But with back to back Horse of the Year mares going to the mattresses in such a highly publicized week, I must jump on this opportunity...

Zenyatta, the electrifying 2010 Horse of the Year, was bred on Wednesday to Darley stallion Bernardini, son of master sire A.P. Indy. She was the second top racemare to be mated in the Bluegrass state this week. The full-figured mare owned by Jerry and Ann Moss was picked up by a horse van (where she was served champagne and chocolate covered peppermints) from William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm at about 7:30 a.m. (EST) for the 10-minute trip to Darley Farm near Lexington. The feisty Zenyatta requested that Ke$ha’s “Animal” be played during the breeding session. Unfortunately for her, the mating lasted much shorter than the van ride, as Bernardini had four other “dates” planned for later that day. At $75,000 a pop, he is thought to be the highest paid male escort since Kato Kaelin. According to the Zenyatta website, "It went very well. In horse terms, it was ‘one jump...and a very good cover’... meaning that everything went perfectly in our first meeting," said the website post, written as if told by Zenyatta. Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61524/horse-of-the-year-zenyatta-bred-to-bernardini#ixzz1EzU94wnP

Elsewhere in Kentucky, two horses previously crowned Horse of the Year were bred on Feb. 21st when the 2009 superstar Rachel Alexandra was mated with stallion Curlin. The mating took place at 9 a.m. (EST) at William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm near Versailles, Ky. Onlookers in the breeding shed reported that Curlin requested the soothing tones of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On” as Rachel entered the room, fitted with a pink negligee blanket and ribbons in her mane. Rachel then closed the curtain and much nickering ensued over the following 15 minutes, at which point the cigarette smoke indicated the session was over. “It was just a very routine visit,” said Farish. “She accepted him and he her. We are very excited to have her and, of course, Zenyatta, who could be bred within the next week.”

So now the competition turns to who can drop a healthy foal the fastest -- stay tuned!

Derby Top 10 update - Feb. 22

First of all, I must say that I had a pretty crappy weekend all around. I drove to Hot Springs for a relaxing three day weekend to witness the Southwest Stakes and get my first live taste of Derby fever 2011. By late afternoon Monday, I had cashed nary a ticket ("0 for Oaklawn" as my friends put it), three of my original top 10 picks failed to threaten in their respective races, and to top it all off one of my two Derby futures bets had already been declared off the trail due to injury! Luckily, I made it back to Dallas okay and I'm ready to lick my wounds and re-group, since the next prep race could be the one that makes me forget about all these trivial concerns.

I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...

1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.

2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.

3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!

4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.

5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.

6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.

7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.

8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!

9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.

Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E

2011 Kentucky Derby Trail

On the heels (pun intended) of two of the greatest campaigns by a filly or mare of all-time in Rachel's 2009 and Zenyatta's 2010 season, it's time that the Derby sophomores reclaim the headlines. And there appears to be a talented enough crop to do the job in 2011 led by Uncle Mo, who has received the most amount of hype for a juvenile that I can recall since Arazi in 1992 and Favorite Trick - the Juvenile champion and overall Horse of the Year in 1997. Speaking of droughts, Lookin At Lucky broke a historic one last year when he was the only 2YO champion to repeat as 3YO champion since Spectacular Bid waaaaayyyy back in 1979!


Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).


It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:


2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."


2011 Derby list #1


1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.


2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!


3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.


4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.


5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!

6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.

7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.

8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.

9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.

10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!

So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.

Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!

Happy Hunting,
E

Blame defeats "Queen Zen" in epic Breeders' Cup

Man o' War lost one in 21 races to a horse named Upset. Zenyatta loses one in 20 to a horse called Blame - how's that for irony?! Last Saturday I saw the greatest race I have ever witnessed. It doesn't always happen that the best horses in the race are able to be on the top of their game on that same day to duke it out to the wire, but Blame and Zenyatta were clearly superior to the rest of the field. Though the vast majority of the 72,739 folks at Churchill Downs and millions watching on ABC or online wanted Big Z to pull it out, she showed uber class by putting in her patented, Silky-Sullivan type, furious rally through the stretch after getting dirt flung up her nostrils for seven furlongs of the ten furlong race. At one point, I was even afraid Mike Smith may have to pull a "Big Brown" she was being so far distanced from the main pack.

The pace was legitimate and most horses had a fairly clean trip -- the fact that Big Z comes from so far back leads to the risk that she would either have to go extremely wide (as Mike Smith typically guides her) or have to temporarily check while waiting for position into the far turn, which happened in the Classic. While this could or could not have been the difference in this race result (Blame galloped out strongly after the wire, so we can't assume Zen would have passed him with a perfect trip), what it proved to me is how superior Zenyatta has been during her previous 19 race unbeaten streak and the heart she showed in pushing Blame to his limit. And I certainly don't "blame" Mike Smith in any way for his ride (although he stated in tears that he left her "too much to do"), as the trip could have certainly been worse than it was.

Comparing her feat to other notable streaks in recent memory, Cigar had a stalking style, which gave him the perfect trip for Jerry Bailey to dictate pace and move when he needed to stay near the rail and out of trouble. His defeat by Dare and Go was the result of a baiting pace scenario by Siphon where Bailey had him essentially on the lead when the fractions were much faster than average, thus he was susceptible and ultimately was passed in deep stretch by the other Dick Mandella entrant. Even Rachel Alexandra last year had the huge advantage in her perfect nine race campaign where she was either on the lead or just off a horse so that she had no chance to get blocked or lose momentum at any point. Although, we witnessed how this nearly backfired with an over-confident ride by Calvin Borel during the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, where she desperately held off closer Macho Again (but never again returned as the same horse). Finally, perhaps the last horse to exhibit as much aversion to running when leaving the gate was the infamous Silky Sullivan, whose name is now used to describe a horse that falls 20 - 30 lengths off the lead until the final stretch drive. His career stats from the late 1950's prove how ineffective this running style can be with only 12 wins and 1 second from 27 lifetime starts! Closers who have to swing wide around the turn or who lose momentum waiting for a hole to open truly have to be several lenghts better than the rest of the field to make up for this tactical disadvantage. And on Breeders' Cup Saturday for once, Zenyatta could not overcome this.

We're not ready to let go of the Big Z - especially now that most Americans east of the Mississippi River have seen what all the fuss is about. Mike Smith desperately wants a do-over. Californians shutter when imagining her "retiring" to Kentucky. The NTRA and racing journals have just now realized how bright Zen's star burns (and how much revenue she is bringing in with special editions, posters and hats). But most importantly, we need Big Z to come back for fans like little Megan from Bardstown. This was the first race ever attended by the 10 year-old and she was treated to one of the greatest BC Classics (if not races) of all time. Do you think Megan came to see Blame or Goldikova or Uncle Mo -- hell no!

E's letter to Zenyatta:

Dear Zen,
Do you realize how much pure, unbridled joy you have brought to so many? You have inspired so many people in all types of trying circumstances to keep fighting and to never give up with your effort on the track and your hospitable, infectious personality in the barn area. You let us all be a part of your life and share in your plethora of success. You were even gracious enough to put your training on hold for an interview with 60 minutes (even though they "only" sent Steve Kroft, when Leslie Stahl would have been a much better choice for you!). I was one of the fortunate fans who lived near Oaklawn Park and was able to see your strut, feel your inspiration and be touched by your greatness a few times - most are not so lucky. There's a reason the only names being referenced to you this week were horse of the last decade Cigar and the legendary Secretariat. Come back and race longer to let your legacy continue to grow and shine your light as an inspiration to so many others.

I visited Cigar on Friday before the Breeders' Cup at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington and he is totally bored. Don't get me wrong, Cathy and the volunteers do a fabulous job taking care of him and ensuring his quality of life, but he's still trapped inside a fenced stall just slightly larger than the size of my office for the majority of his day - and I know that I feel caged! And contrary to popular belief based on your size, you are - in fact - a woman, so your breeding value for one season can't be more than what you will certainly earn on the race track, with or without appearance fees. And now that you have an ever-so-small blemish on your record of perfection, you have no more pressure on future races - just run for fun! So what I'm trying to say Zenyatta is that we all love you - can't you please stay and play a little longer?

Your Admiring Friend,
E

Breeders Cup preview

Happy Breeders Cup 2010 to all! This could be a truly historic day at the most historic track in the US, particularly for Breeders Cup races. The hype in Louisville remains whether Queen Zen can duplicate her success from last year on a dirt track. Surprisingly, there are more doubters than believers in the ranks of media. But Mike Smith has tipped us off with comments that he expects something truly special - perhaps he will let the big mare crush her male opponents and critics everywhere under the lights of the famed twin spires.
Here's a few spot plays for those interested:
Juvenile Turf - Soldat over Banned, Humble and Hungry.
Turf Sprint - Rose Catherine with Chamberlain Bridge, Grand Adventure.
Juvenile- Boys at Tosconova over Jaycito, Biondetti.
Dirt Mile - Here Comes Ben over Tizway, Thiskyhasnolimit.
Turf - Winchester and Al Khali.
Classic - Zenyatta clear of the field, watch close from Fly Down!

SSSSHHHHH… A moment of silence for 1998 Kentucky Derby champ Real Quiet

The Bob Baffert trainee know as “The Fish” was killed in a freak stall accident on September 27th at age 15. While Baffert was already on the racing map in 1998 with his previous year’s Derby victor – Silver Charm, repeating the task the very next season with long-time pal Mike Pegram put a new, brash style of ownership squarely in the forefront of American thoroughbred racing. In the winner’s circle of hallowed Churchill Downs holding The Derby trophy, Pegram tipsily exclaimed, “We’re gonna be drinkin’ some beer tonight… Budweiser beer!” Mike was referring to the Anheuser-Busch distributorship owned by Robert Lewis, fellow owner to Bob Baffert with Silver Charm. After all, Pegram was the same owner who had recently named a top-priced filly sales purchase and future Eclipse Champion “Silverbulletday” after his preferred lager of choice – Coors Light.

The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.

During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.

Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.

Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.