Post position draw - El Kabeir feature

After reading numerous articles and reflecting on the Derby post positions assigned about 24 hours ago, the thought is that Carpe Diem (2), Materiality (3) and Upstart (19) were the top contenders most  negatively impacted by their respective posts. Carpe Diem and Materiality - both pressers - will now likely be forced to use more energy sprinting clear from the gates to hold their position into the first turn.  Not ideal for reserving energy for that demanding 10th furlong when several closers will be picking up the pieces. Upstart is perhaps more of a stalker than a speed/presser, but especially in this year's Derby edition a large percentage of the field will want to be laying 3rd - 6th. Translation, Jose Ortiz will have a hard time not being at least 4 wide going into that first turn, losing precious ground for a horse who has had issues closing out races near the finish.  Dortmund had a dream draw at #8 and Ken Ramsey was jubilant when International Star was assigned pill 12. American Pharoah is parked wide in the 18 stall, however many winners (Big Brown #20, Animal Kingdom #16, I'll Have Another #19, Orb #16) have managed to overcome their outside post over the last decade and surely his camp would prefer being a few spots wide with the best horse as opposed to breaking slow and getting a ton of dirt kickback in his face for the first time. Great horses can overcome wide trips.

The horse I'm not able to shake today for whatever reason is El Kabeir (lucky #7) at a juicy 30-1. And it has nothing to do with his jockey Calvin Bo-rel, who will likely be reserved early with the son of Scat Daddy before making a move on the far turn, either on the rail or splitting horses into the stretch. It started with seeing his two published workouts since his April 4th Wood Memorial, the latter of which was a blistering :46.4 seconds for four panels at Belmont Park. You can't compare times at different venues, but that's zooming for a closer, which would typically work in slow licks such as Far Right (:49.0) and International Star (50.4). El Kabeir is coming out of a belated 3rd place effort by five lengths in the Wood Memorial that was won in impressive fashion by Frosted (Tapit sired). The pace over said Aqueduct's main track (as opposed to inner winterized track that El Kabeir had won twice over) that day was painfully slow with splits of :49, 1:13.2 and 1:37.3, so I can forgive his non-threatening third. If you're looking for a historical angle, like Secretariat did in 1973, El Kabeir both won his 3YO debut race and Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct prior to his third in the Wood... hhhmmmmm.

Recall that in 1998 when all eyes were on Baffert's big horse and 5/2 favorite Indian Charlie, his unheralded stablemate sshhh - Real Quiet paid $19 to win (from the #2 hole, mind you) while 'Charlie tired late to finish 3rd. Not only that, but Real Quiet would go on to be the narrowest loser of a Triple Crown by a whisker to Victory Gallop. So it is not unprecedented for Ahmed Zayat's "B" horse El Kabeir to steal Pharoah's thunder come Saturday. Other respected handicapper friends of mine are touting Danzig Moon and Far Right as closers to use in the bottom of your exotic tickets. These two also stand at 30-1 on the morning line and should only drift higher without the Calvin Borel money flowing to them. Good luck in building your tickets. Let's hit a big one, even if/when Pharoah hits the line first!

Derby Week 141 has arrived!

Happy Monday Derby fanatics -- are you all ready to Talk Derby to me?  I'm finally recovering from the grief of losing the incomparable Cigar last fall. Oaklawn Park was also a downer meet for our stable this winter, from all the bad weather and lost racing days to training setbacks and poor performances from our fillies. But hope springs eternal and with Derby 141 at hand, all things turn to the positives of perhaps the deepest crop of sophomore race horses we have seen in many years (ultimately only proven with time).

How about Zayat homebred American Pharoah making his Oaklawn competition look like miniature donkeys in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby?  Or that beast of a horse Dortmund kicking clear race after race at Santer Aniter (actually, Santa Anita) giving Baffert a two headed monster?  Speaking of kicking clear, Firing Line stormed home at Sunland Park by fourteen widening lengths after knocking heads with Dortmund previously. Carpe Diem only has a 2nd place blemish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on his record and has two stalk and pounce wins during his Derby prep season for Todd Pletcher. Frosted tries to become ubersire Tapit's first Derby winning offspring after annexing the Wood Memorial. Materiality (by Afleet Alex) is the fresh shooter of the bunch after out-dueling Upstart in Florida and finally, all International Star keeps doing in Louisiana is just win baby! Yes, we've got some heavyweights lining up to face the starter on Saturday that could even steal the show from the welterweight "Fight of the Century" between Mayweather and Pacquiao later that night.

One of the reasons I love thoroughbred racing is the history and tradition that it represents. There have been small tweaks to the eligibility requirements for Derby starters as of late (points instead of earnings), and I'm still struggling with "... presented by Yum! Brands" associated with the official sponsorship.  But they still load up to 20 horses with 126 pounds on their backs the first Saturday every May at approximately 5:30 CST to run 10 furlongs around the same track that Aristides trod back on May 17, 1875. Two thousand and fifteen represents the 25th anniversary of one of the most memorable Kentucky Derby days in my lifetime.

The human and emotional drama of the greatest two minutes in sports was on full display in 1990 when Unbridled's owner, 92 year young Frances Genter, received the race recap from trainer Carl Nafzger.  "We're taking the lead...He's gonna win... he's gonna win. He's a winner, he's a winner. There he goes, right there. We won it, we won it. He's a winner, Mrs. Genter. You won the Kentucky Derby! Oh, Mrs. Genter I love you!" What a special moment for the widow of the pop-up toaster founder who was known as an astute handicapper and breeder and had spent countless "leggo my eggo" dollars chasing her Derby dream.

The legend of Unbridled grew with time, as he went on to prove his $26 Derby payday was no fluke by winning that year's Breeders' Cup Classic and siring several branches of Kentucky Derby and triple crown race winners. Unbridled captured a cumulative breeding Triple Crown with Kentucky Derby winning son Grindstone in 1996, 2000 Preakness winner Red Bullet and 2003 Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes captor Empire Maker. Further, his sire line includes Classic winners Birdstone (Belmont), Mine That Bird (Derby), Summer Bird (Belmont) and near misses (Bodemeister, Pioneerof the Nile, Empire Maker). Surprisingly, no son of a Derby winner has claimed the roses since Grindstone in 1996. Unbridled is also the damsire of 2013 Derby winner Orb and 2011 Preakness winner "the big white face of" Shackleford, etching his bloodlines in triple crown lore.

Empire Maker is the grandsire to the buzz horse in this year's Derby edition, American Pharoah. After witnessing this epitome of a racehorse twice demolish his opponents at Oaklawn Park, I am anxious to see if Pharoah can even the score for his dad Pioneerof the Nile (Mine That Bird) and grandsire Empire Maker's (Funny Cide) Kentucky Derby defeats. As the saying goes, revenge is a dish that is best served cold.

CIGAR - farewell to a legend

Cigar was my favorite race horse of all time, along with so many other racing fans in their 30's and 40's. He epitomized the tough race horses from decades long ago, running 10 times in his first Championship season of 1995, winning all ten under the conditioning of Bill Mott. Coincidentally, he was post #10 in the season finale Breeders' Cup over a sloppy Belmont Park where Tom Durkin proclaimed "He beat the best the world could offer, and mother nature too!"  He was voted horse of the decade of the 1990s and 18th best horse of the 20th century and was a first ballot 2002 Hall of Fame inductee for owners Allen and Madeleine Paulson. He retired with career earnings just a shade under $10 million.

Today's owners and trainers who want to bitch and complain about their "star" horse being treated unfairly need to go back and watch some of Cigar's 1996 race replays. Cigar routinely carried 128 and 130 pounds in handicap races (spotting up to 20 lbs to opponents) and was pressed and baited repeatedly in the Pacific Classic by the duo from Dick Mandella's barn (Siphon and winner Dare and Go). I am often asked by friends attending horse races with me if horses know if they won or lost. Well, it was reported that Cigar would not eat for three days after his loss in what would have been his record breaking 17th consecutive win (since passed by Zenyatta at 19). 

Cigar ran into some tough 3 year-olds (Skip Away and Louis Quatorze) getting weight breaks late in his career but still brought his best effort near the finish line each race. After getting an extremely wide trip under his regular pilot Jerry Bailey in the Woodbine hosted Breeders' Cup Classic of 1996, he still finished a charging 3rd to Alphabet Soup and Louis Quatorze in a three-way photo. Cigar set a track record that day with his effort despite the wide trip, but the top two ran a split second faster. After that defeat, the much anticipated match race with l'Arc de Triomphe winner Helissio fell apart with concerns Cigar was no longer performing at his best and needed a break.

Ironically, the last of the modern day "iron horse" competing at the highest level was a horse Cigar passed the baton to in the 1996 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Skip Away. "Skippy" made a dozen starts at 3, eleven starts at 4 and nine starts at 5, winning divisional Eclipse Award honors each year.  By comparison, the reigning back to back Horse of the Year Wise Dan only started six and seven times in his last two championship seasons and will only have five starts after the Breeders' Cup due to a mid-season injury.

One of the highlights of my year since his retirement to the Kentucky Horse Park was visiting the incomparable Cigar annually at the Lexington horse haven. A few years ago upon an early morning visit I caught Cigar having a bad day and not responding to visitors near his stall. I was so upset leaving the horse park to see him in that sunken state that I could not leave that way. After driving around viewing area farms and having lunch, I drove back to the Horse Park before my departing flight in hopes of seeing the real Cigar. Fortunately, he was moving around much better and I was able to coax him to the stall gate to share a peppermint and a pet for a final goodbye.

Now we are learning that Cigar had been suffering spinal debilitation in his lower neck for a while. That same massive, regal neck that was once his hallmark was now causing him increased pain. He recently underwent an advanced surgery to attempt to relieve his spinal cord compression which led to a fracture that took his life. I can't help but think of his long-time caregiver at the Hall of Champions, Cathy Roby, who passed away in 2011 upon this news today. For a special glimpse into the bond these two shared, see the video below where Cigar learns to paint...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ptG_WAWHAI 

Commenting after his final start in that Breeders' Cup, owner Allen Paulson said it best...

"He didn't disgrace himself; he tried damn hard," Paulson said. "He's one of the greatest ever. But the horse can't go on forever."

Nor can horses live forever, which makes this gray October day a somber one. I can only hope Cigar is ushered into the animal section of the pearly gates by St. Francis of Assisi himself.  Maybe then Cigar and Citation can share some stories from their gloried past and take a stroll around the pasture to settle the long-debated argument of who would have won if they faced each other going for that 17th victory.  My ten bucks would be on Cigar.

Chrome is the new Gold

As Bill Murray (another horse racing fan) stated in Ghostbusters, "He came, he saw, he kicked their ass!" http://www.barntowire.com/smf/index.php?topic=41622.0

California Chrome did what he was supposed to do "on paper" by getting a clean break, perfect stalking trip with mild fractions (some idiot analyst opined the first half would go in :44 change, when it instead went in :47.37) and spurted clear on the turn where 80% of winners already have the lead (sorry, Normandy Invasion). Based on Victor Espinoza gearing Chrome down in deep stretch and the furious rally by deep closer Commanding Curve (I did not bet the CC-CC exacta), the winning margin appeared closer than it probably was in reality. Much has been made about the slow time (both final time of 2:03.66 and closing quarter-mile over 26 seconds) being the 2nd slowest Derby running on a fast track in over 30 years. Whereas, the previous day Untapable and Rosie Napravnik damn near bested the KY Oaks stakes record with a zippy 9 furlongs in 1:48.68. But let's reserve judgement until after the Preakness, as most people had anointed ORB the 12th Triple Crown champion after his last to first flourish in last year's Derby but then missed the board in the Preakness and checked in a well-beaten 3rd in the Belmont Stakes.

There is another expression, "the bigger they come, the harder they fall."  That is certainly true of the poor rides by some of the world's greatest jockeys. This list starts with John Velazquez aboard 4th choice in the wagering and one of my top win candidates, Intense Holiday. Breaking from the 16 post, I expected him to be 3-4 wide with a post that has claimed a couple of Derby trophies in recent memory.  Rather, he pressed the pace 6 wide on the first turn to stay near the lead pack while he had plenty of room to "tuck in" had he chosen to take back.  In a 10 furlong race, being caught that wide is the kiss of death and Johnny took away any chance of his horse hitting the board in that first furlong.  Next on the list is Gary Stevens, who claimed his problem of clipping heels and severely "checking" on the first turn was due to rogue riding by Wicked Strong's jock, Rajiv Maragh.  But again, why are you wanting to be in the top tier of horses when your trainer/owner has already stated they want to take him further off the pace this race?  Laying back early and rallying late worked out much better for Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong and Dance with Fate.

That leads us to my love-hate jockey, Calvin "Boo-Boo" Borel. I started by hating him as a 16 Y-O lad for screwing me out of a pick 6 ticket at Louisiana Downs by getting blocked on the rail and rallying late to just miss the win (and my perfect pick 6 bet!). But after Arkansas Derby day 3 weeks ago when he romped home on our Sammy's Bandit by 12 lenghts, I've finally released my previous resentment towards the Hall of Fame jockey. Trainer Billy Gowan was very critical of him lagging the field to dart directly to the rail, running sideways instead of forward. Then turning for home he tried to stay on the rail until he steadied due to Vicar's In Trouble rapid retreat and then wasted ground having to swing 9 wide. Several of my esteemed colleagues expect Ride On Curlin to hit the board in Pimlico at a square price if you are so inclined to test California Chrome again. Finally, Rosie Napravnik and her mount, Vicar's In Trouble, looked uncomfortable from the break from #2 post and Vicar was very headstrong early, fighting the bit and basically was pulled up in the stretch for the last place finish. Be careful what you wish for Mr. Ramsey! On a positive note, I was impressed with my long-shot Chitu's effort after setting the pace and only fading to 9th very late in the race. If they would have skipped the Derby for next Saturday's 1 3/16th mile Preakness he could have proved more effective on that speed favoring strip. And while I would have been very wealthy had Danza won The Derby due to my $20 futures bet last November in Vegas, the toughness he displayed getting bounced around twice in the stretch and still finishing strongly may set him up nicely for the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles.

Major congratulations are in order for one of SRS' founding members. Matt Lasko's lovely bride delivered the couple's first child, a "healthy foal" on May 5th - Evelyn Anne Lasko. Taking the best qualities from Matt and Ellie, I would say this filly is a lock to be a future superstar # LASKO STRONG!!

Intense Holiday over Danza, Chitu, Candy Boy

My official pick for Derby 140 will be Intense Holiday. I expect Johnny V. to revert to coming from further off the pace with the high number of front-runners expected today. This horse reminds me of Revolutionary last year who didn't get the best trip in Kentucky but finished 3rd under Borel.  If California Chrome breaks alert and able to stalk a couple of others in the first part of the race they'll all be running for 20% 2nd place money, but the best horses certainly do not always claim the roses. 

Danza could be tough if he's able to back up his huge effort in the Ark. Derby in a 3 week turnaround.  Samraat and Candy Boy seem to be flying under the radar and could run well at a nice price.  If the wicked pace doesn't materialize, look out for Rosie on Vicar's In Trouble, who is all heart!  She's on a roll this weekend under the TwinSpires. Also, Baffert's lone entry, Chitu, looks to be coming up to this race with a solid numbers progression and if he's able to lay off the leaders early could get the jump on them turning for home.   I wish them all a safe trip most importantly! 

Best of luck with your bets,
Eric

Toss the Florida horses!

While it is true I've only had a couple of winners since I began with my official picks back in 1997 (Silver Charm), I have had much more success choosing a 10-1 range horse to toss completely from all bets (Goldencents last year, finished 17th at 8-1).  My lone miss was with Ice Box, who rallied strongly for 2nd place in the slop to Super Saver in 2010, but never threatened again in another graded stakes race.

With California Chrome being a heavy morning line favorite and clearly the best horse "on paper" and 2nd choice Hoppertunity scratching, the odds are not dispersed typical this year. IF CHROME LOSES, THIS MEANS PAYOUTS WILL BE HUGE!! So while I can't toss Danza or Wicked Strong (only other single digit odds) I will give you a pair of 15-1 horses to short, Wildcat Red and General a Rod (Florida Derby toss). Gulfstream Park has developed a worsening reputation each year for its speed-favoring track (sans Orb last year) and this pair has taken turns beating each other with very slow times aided by this bias. Wildcat Red being sired by D'wildcat is probably the least bred horse in this race to win at 10 furlongs and 'a Rod also has a similar running style as many sophomores in here with better chances to fight on for a top 4 finish (Vicar's In Trouble, California Chrome, Chitu). So short these Florida horses and use other 15, 20 and 30-1 horses on the bottom of your exotic tickets. 

Two long-shots I will be using prominently include #13 Chitu (Baffert's "other" horse) and #18 Candy Boy (hoping Gary Stevens keeps him covered up until the far turn).

Best of luck with your bets today - HAPPY DERBY DAY 2014!!!
E

Eight Thousand Bucks = Derby glory?

An eight thousand dollar ($8,000.00) check is all it took for the two top Derby horses by qualifying earnings to get to the big dance. Quite a contrast from last year's Derby winner, when blue-blooded ORB was a product of generations of breeding the best to the best by two royal families of American racing - Phipps and Janney.

Vicar's in Trouble was a small chubby yearling when the Louisiana auctioneer hammered down hip 158 at only $8,000 to Clyde Taylor in September of 2012.  There were 20 horses sold in that sale for greater than 20K, and another couple dozen hips exchanged hands (mostly to pinhookers) before Clyde Taylor secured the winning $8,000 bid on hip 158. Spendthrift Farm recently created a Louisiana division and for the last few years has sent many of their young unproven mares in foal to moderately priced Kentucky stallions to cajun' country in hopes of boosting their produce earnings in the rich Louisiana restricted purse structure to be more marketable in Kentucky. I know first-hand because my stable has purchased two similar Louisiana bred colts from Spendthrift Farm in the Fasig-Tipton Texas sale. I should clarify - similar in that they were from young Kentucky sires (Henny Hughes and Notional), not that they were multiple graded stakes winners with earnings in the $1 million range! (An important clarification in case any of my stable partners are reading this.)

As any horseman who has been in the business more than a few years will tell you, when you can make a tidy profit you sell and move on to the next one. That's exactly what Clyde did when he made a 10-bagger by flipping hip 158 in the Maryland 2YO training sell in spring of 2013 to Ken and Sarah Ramsey, recently flush with cash from all their Kitten's Joy progeny earnings and stud fees. Of all the horses they purchased in the last couple of years, my guess is this guy with a Dosage index of 5.00 was the last one they would have expected to bring them to the first Saturday in May.

California Chrome is the first foal out of a Maryland bred mare who only hit the board once in 6 lifetime starts - all for a claiming tag. Love the Chase was bought for $8,000 as a broodmare prospect by two of her original partners (each owned only 5% in original syndicate) in California based Blinkers On Racing after her brief and unspectacular racing career ended at Golden Gate Park with a last place effort in an $8,000 claiming race. Steven Coburn and Perry Martin must have had a gut instinct about the mare they had raced when they bought her back to breed in California to a young sire who had shown promise getting a classic horse earlier with Rousing Sermon.

When you see the striking presence of CC, you wouldn't know he is of humble lineage. Sire Lucky Pulpit is from the immediate family of top class sire Unbridled's Song via second dam Lucky Spell. Chrome's damside includes Dance Number, who has produced top runners such as Juvenile Champion Rhythm and Get Lucky. Get Lucky further produced the dams (both by A.P. Indy) of such classic runners as Super Saver and Bluegrass Cat. So this would be the category where greatness may have skipped a generation or two.

As of today, these sophomores have earned $788,900 and $1,134,850, respectively, and are Kentucky bound. So whether it be a Maryland, Louisiana, Texas or California sale, bring along about ten grand and take a good long look at the yearlings this summer at a sale near you. Or you can wait until the Keeneland September sale and bring a quarter million or more in hopes to find your "big horse!"

Happy Derby Week!
E

Derby Top 10 - March update

Not the hot start I was looking for having to toss a couple of my top choices so early. But rather than simply add all the round 1 winners, I'm passing on many of these front-running types since that seldom works out at Churchill Downs in a 20 horse field.  I'd rather give another try to those horses that couldn't make up the ground on several speed bias tracks (i.e. Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay).

Removed
Commissioner - failed to finish ahead of a 73-1 and 43-1 shot in the FOY with no real excuse.

Top Billing - broken cannon bone in training  and off trail.

Conquest Titan - failed to threaten at Tampa Bay on a speed favoring track, prefer Vinceremos.

My updated ranking (in order of preference) follows...

1. Candy Boy – Candy Ride/In Excess

John Sadler is trying to dethrone Bob Baffert as the west coast Derby trainer with his deep bench this year, led by Candy Boy. As I stated last month, Candy Ride could be the next Malibu Moon of sires to break out with a quality crop this year.  As increasingly likely that Shared Belief will not make the Derby parade, he appears to be the best of the west. I will take my chances that California Chrome is a speed-only type of horse with his freakish San Felipe romp -- similar fractions to Game on Dude's record breaking performance the following day on the same Santa Anita strip in the Big Cap.

2. Intense Holiday - Perhaps I found his gutsy Risen Star win so impressive since it helped fuel a nice trifecta ticket for me, but he appears to have taken that step against top company he has been holding for so long. Albano was tough as nails in defeat, but like brother Mark Valeski he may prove to be not quite on the same level of top national Derby horses as they stretch out in distance. Frankie Brothers went over budget bidding for this guy for Starlight Stables and said he had a hunch he could be a top flight colt, so this former top conditioner's (and husband of Donna Barton-Brothers) intuition is good enough for me.

3. Strong Mandate – Tiznow/Deputy Minister

I'm moving him up based on the wilting of my other top picks and the fact that his bad trips are consistently keeping him slightly under the radar. Sure, it looked like he was soundly defeated by Tapizar last out but he never quit churning and will be that much tighter off a fairly lengthy layoff (by D. Wayne Lukas standards, anyway). I like his tactical speed and ability to stay close to fast splits and still have some punch left, as he showed in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He will be my top choice in the Rebel Stakes on Saturday.

 4. Cairo Prince – Pioneerof the Nile/Holy Bull

There is not one horse on this list that I am more impressed with at the moment. However, sitting on the bench until the Florida Derby for his final prep seems a bit absurd to me. I’ve already mentioned the Dosage jinx with his numbers so you would think his team would want to build some foundation through an extra start against fresh faces. Palace Malice tried the LA Derby route last year for more points/experience and even though he was totally stymied on the turn and missed the board look how the rest of his year turned out. Still waiting on Florida Derby or Wood Memorial in April to see if he's still got it.

5. Vinceremos - Pioneerof the Nile/More Than Ready

I guess I failed to learn my lesson with Verrazano last year, as I like another horse with miler More Than Ready in the breeding. But Pioneerof the Nile came out swinging with his first crop, similar to Into Mischief last year who had multiple offspring in The Derby starting gate. I like the grit these horses tend to have and he was second best out of a better than average Tampa Bay Derby, where he took a step forward in defeat over several other that regressed from the Sam Davis prep. Owners WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing (of Louisiana/Florida) have pledged a portion of his earnings to a therapeutic riding center in Florida named in Vinceremos' honor, so this is my special interest story of all the Derby horses thus far. (Remember Afleet Alex and Alex's lemonade stand in 2005?)
6. Tapiture - Tapit/Olympio 

Southwest Stakes win at Oaklawn was moi impressivo, but he did have the perfect ground-saving trip along the rail and spurted away from Strong Mandate on the turn to put the race out of touch. Of the many standout performances of Winchell-Asmussen led runners, I prefer the filly Untapable who smashed in the Fair Ground Rachel Alexandra Stakes under Rosie Napravnik. Of couse, with the new points system for Derby qualifying I doubt she attempts, or makes, the field. Still a very professional effort at Oaklawn with some back-class at Churchill Downs and you would expect another move forward in his second start off layoff.

7. Midnight Hawk – Midnight Lute/Wolf Power

Bob Baffert trainee has a lovely motion with his head very low (ala A.P. Indy) and great extension. He was a one-pace horse in the San Felipe, and that was chasing California Chrome all the way around the track. He'll need to find another gear in the SA Derby and I'm not sure if that means going straight to the front or settling off the pace for a new look.  But if Baffert can't figure it out, nobody can. This could be the first horse I ever saw with a Dosage Index under 1.0 – it’s a scant 0.71. Compare that to Derby futures individual favorite Cairo Prince of 7.0 and we’ll see if this Dosage index is invalidated this year!

8. Ride on Curlin – Curlin/Storm Cat

Calvin Borel decided to push him early in the Southwest due to his outside post and he never really got a breather because of hustling early and being very wide around the first turn. He still fought hard in the stretch to keep the show spot after running a lot further than his peers, so I think he'll be fine in the Rebel this Saturday as long as Borel lets him relax early and comes with one big run. People forget he was a solid 3^rd in the Grade I Champagne behind Havana and Honor Code last fall. Speaking of which, I’ve left both of these big names out due to their late starts back on the trail. They will have to earn their way back onto my list, as many top juveniles fizzle out before the Derby arrives (Shanghai Bobby, Uncle Mo, etc.).

9. Tonalist– Tapit/Pleasant Colony

If super-sire Tapit is going to find success on the Derby trail it should very well be this year with all his bullets. This guy is the best of the bunch bred for the 10 furlong Derby distance being thrown from a Pleasant Colony mare. He is still eligible for a NX2 allowance race after running behind free-running Constitution (another Tapit up and comer), but his lone win came easily at 9 furlongs two races back and next start likely the Florida Derby at 9 furlongs. He must run first or second to make the starting gate at Louisville but I think he'll get to those speedy sorts down at Hallandale Beach next time around.

10. Kristo-- Distorted Humor/Capote

He needs to get his head straight in a hurry. All that misbehaving in the stretch for that size of a horse is awkward to watch - drifting out on the turn and pulling Joel Rosario repeatedly towards the rail. Has not threatened the winner in his last two starts now at Santa Anita but generally the SA Derby brings out a larger field where the front-runners are pressured between calls and he could possibly pick up the pieces. Not sure he's best suited for 10 furlongs, but I'd rather give this physical standout one more chance to put it together late than to jump on the bandwagon of one of these speed demons.
 

Good luck with your picks along the Derby trail!
Eric

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 10 list

Commissioner -- A.P. Indy/Touch Gold

Over the past few years I have pointed out my favorite breeding nick of the crop and that often comes through on the first Saturday in May (see Super Saver). Not only does this guy look as good as his breeding, but he returned from a 4 month layoff to beat a solid field at Gulfstream Park and has already won 2 races at 9 furlongs.  “The Commish” will be going postward in the Fountain of Youth Stakes down at Gulfstream Park for team Pletcher and WinStar Farm. When I first saw Honor Code last fall, I had hoped he would bring A.P. Indy a much deserved Derby winner in his final foal crop. But at this point my money is on Commissioner to fill that role.

Kristo -- Distorted Humor/Capote

This colt has run well twice since stretching out to two turns for under-rated west coast conditioner John Sadler. Bejarano had ridden him in every start and appeared to be race-riding against the heavy favorite Midnight Hawk in the Sham Stakes. With a normal size field he should be able to get a better stalking trip. I loved Funny Cide the year he brought home the roses and Distorted Humor is capable of siring another Derby winner. For those bettors out there, Kristo is #11 in the current Derby futures pool at a whopping 99-1!

Top Billing – Curlin/A.P. Indy  

My 2^nd favorite breeding in this year’s crop will tackle Commissioner again in the Fountain of Youth. Last year there were clear “key races” on the Derby trail (such as LA Derby) and the FOY should go a long way to sort out the wheat from the chaff in this crop. Not much separated him and Commissioner when they squared off recently and they appear to be the class of a very deep Gulfstream contingent. It looks as if California is also coming up strong this year – not so much New York (recent state bred winners of Withers) or Louisiana. Too early to tell with the Oaklawn horses.

Midnight Hawk – Midnight Lute/Wolf Power  

Bob Baffert trainee has a lovely motion with his head very low (ala A.P. Indy) and great extension. He will attempt to keep his hot streak going in the Bob Lewis (Silver Charm fame).  Speaking of streaks, owner Mike Pegram is on fire with his homebred stallion Midnight Lute (Mylute 3^rd in last year’s Derby and Shakin It Up - Govenor Charlie just ran 1-2 in the Grade 2 Strub stakes). This could be the first horse I ever saw with a Dosage Index under one – it’s a scant 0.71. Compare that to Derby futures individual favorite Cairo Prince of 7.0 and we’ll see if this Dosage index is invalidated this year!

Strong Mandate – Tiznow/Deputy Minister   

D. Wayne Lukas stormed back onto the Triple Crown scene in 2013 and looks capable of backing that up with another victory this season with one of his typical speed-oriented types. The Champagne flop was awful but his BC Juvenile show spot was great considering his suicidal pace (think Palace Malice in last year’s Derby). Tiznow has not had a lot of success on the Derby Trail so generally I discard his progeny but leave out a live D. Wayne Lukas horse at your own peril. He will try to add points to the Derby qualifying board in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on President’s Day.

Ride on Curlin – Curlin/Storm Cat 

Time to throw a sleeper pick in and who better than a proven classic distance sire.  I was in attendance at Oaklawn to see ROC’s return sprint victory and his versatile form reminds me a great deal of a past Oaklawn great, Afleet Alex. I’ve heard reports from Billy Gowan that he hasn’t missed a beat since shipping south and he has already proven he’s very competitive with stiff company up north.  Not sure why a horse like Rise Up is in the individual Derby futures pool when ROC finished 4 lengths ahead of him in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill last fall and also 3^rd in the Grade I Champagne behind Havana and Honor Code. Speaking of which, I’m leaving both of these big names out due to their late starts back on the trail. They will have to earn their way back onto my list, as many top juveniles fizzle out before the Derby arrives (Shanghai Bobby, Uncle Mo, etc.).

Cairo Prince – Pioneerof the Nile/Holy Bull  

There is not one horse on this list that I am more impressed with at the moment.  However, sitting on the bench until the Florida Derby for his final prep seems a bit absurd to me. I’ve already mentioned the Dosage jinx with his numbers so you would think his team would want to build some foundation through an extra start against fresh faces.  Palace Malice tried the LA Derby route last year for more points/experience and even though he was totally stymied on the turn and missed the board look how the rest of his year turned out.

Conquest Titan – Birdstone/Mineshaft  

Closed from the clouds to finish a distant second behind Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull, but has also thrown in a couple of clunkers showing speed earlier in his career.  Without a doubt his daddy and paternal grandpa made their way from the back of the pack, as he is getting accustomed to. Certain breeding lines (namely, Unbridled and other Mr. Prospector lines) have a way to throw out classic winners, so if his older brother Mine That Bird can win the Derby, certainly he has a shot!

Candy Boy – Candy Ride/In Excess  

My first winning horse as an owner was from the In Excess male line, so this one caught my eye.  Due to the hoof abscess issue with Shared Belief, this is my favorite candy in this year’s sophomore crop, also a personal favorite sire of mine.   Another from the stable of California based John Sadler that could keep improving. For some reason, Candy Ride reminds me a lot of Malibu Moon, who threw out quality runners year after year but finally broke through with his first Derby winner last year in Orb. Perhaps 2014 will be “Year of Candy” as well as year of the Horse (recent lunar new year).

Tonalist – Tapit/Pleasant Colony 

If super-sire Tapit is going to find success on the Derby trail it should very well be this year with all his bullets. And since Hansen proved that Tapit can get a great 8-9 furlong horse but probably not 10 furlongs, what a better nick than with stamina-laden Pleasant Colony. I am curious as to the training pattern by veteran turf horseman Christophe Clement alternating 5 furlong with 3 furlong breezes. In only two races, he has an obvious style of lagging well behind at the break so perhaps he is trying to put more speed into this well bred colt. Regardless, I wanted to throw another off the radar horse in my inaugural Top 10 and he fits the bill.

GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR DERBY FUTURES BETS AND HANDICAPPING THE 2014 DERBY TRAIL!!!

Bubble horse:  Vicar’s in Trouble – Into Mischief/Vicar

Saturday Racing Stable LLC enjoys first victory

Saturday Racing Stable LLC experienced their inaugural victory at Louisiana Downs on July 4th with IGETSOENOTIONAL. Although it was the third horse campaigned by the purple and green silks stable based in Dallas, TX, the 3YO gelding affectionately known as "Whitney" won at first asking over 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf course in an impressive 1:31.1.  Follow this link and scroll to bottom and select "Track" tab, July 4, Race 7... http://www.harrahslouisianadowns.com/racing/Live-Racing.html#.Ue2_co2Tia8

Whitney had a bit of trouble being fanned five wide on the first turn, but a patient Kevin Smith allowed his charge to regroup and by the top of the stretch the track announcer declared "And here comes I-get-so-enotion-al rocketing by them" as he won by 2 1/2 lengths going away. Trainer Brian House reported that the chestnut son of Notional out of Macellya (FR) came out of the race in fine order and will be pointed to a return on the turf at one mile or greater towards the end of July.

The naming of this horse reflects the camaraderie among the partners of this two year old stable consisting primarily of friends and co-workers of managing member Eric Kordsmeier from his investment background. Eric wanted to get partner feedback before naming the colt acquired from the Fasig-Tipton Texas two year old in training sale in April 2012 while keeping with tradition by using part of the sire or dam's name. After "Ace" Bernstein submitted "Dontgetsoenotional" that gave Eric the idea of naming their recent addition as a posthumous honor to Whitney Houston, who tragically died just weeks prior to SRS acquiring this horse. Putting the sire's name together with Ms. Houston's most iconic song, the result was "Igetsoenotional." Partners Matt and Rocco immediately had visions of a Derby caliber horse that would bring in Whitney Houston look-a-like performers in sequenced dresses to sing after his victories.  But after months over months of shin splints and being a late maturing horse, Whitney was patiently trained up to his first race in winning form by Brian House. It was a fitting victory considering one of the key reasons Eric identified Mr. House as a top trainer candidate was his high win percentage developing young horses, particularly distance horses.

Saturday Racing Stable LLC currently has two horses in training - the other being Hollywood Hughes, who has been sidelined with various ailments since an off-the-board finish at Fair Grounds this spring. In addition, they own a Kentucky bred yearling filly by first crop sire Afleet Express as well as a retired race mare by Posse that is now a broodmare in Louisiana. SRS plans to add one additional runner at the upcoming Fasig-Tipton Texas yearling sale to race on the Arkansas - Kentucky circuit.