In light of recent events with the souring U.S. economy and overall poor reputation amongst the world community, it should come as no surprise that we've lost our dominance in international racing as well. The Euro based horses won 3 of 4 turf races and for good measure pulled off a couple upsets over the main track. And let me tell you, the Brits were on hand in numbers to revel in their success. I must have been in the Euro zone of Arcadia as the accents were thick on the bus ride back and throughout the pubs of Huntington Avenue. "We did it... we got first AND second!", proclaimed one expat. Quipped another, "Curlin who?"
To add insult to injury (to my pocket book, anyway) the next morning at breakfast the Lads next to my wife and I were calculating their U.S. witholding tax on their $6,000 profits (nearly 10,000 British pounds). Even our Sunday afternoon trip to the beach to watch the sun set into the Pacific Ocean from Duke's Bar at Malibu was crashed by a British family, fully stocked with Breeders' Cup accessories (presumably bought with 50 quid from winnings). They all bellied up to the tiki bar next to us ordering Mai Tais and toasting Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator.
In spite of my inept handicapping, I could not have enjoyed the warm and sunny day any more at Santa Anita -- the majestic racetrack beneath the San Gabriel mountains. You could clearly tell this wasn't the track's first rodeo. The 51,000 plus horse lovers were nothing for this facility to handle. After watching the post parade for the Classic go by the grandstand, I realized that I forgot to make my mother's bets. Rather than booking them like my brother would have done, I scurried to the ticket windows and had all bets placed within two minutes! Now this wouldn't have been possible during many Saturdays at Oaklawn Park, not to mention Belmont, Saratoga or Del Mar, at least not on the "big event" days I've attended.
There have been multiple criticisms of Santa Anita's Pro-Ride synthetic surface, particularly after Curlin's out-of-the money showing. Not a single horse won on the main track without previous success on either turf or a synthetic track, making any dirt form irrelevant. My personal argument is not that the surface favors turf runners, but rather thwarts the chances of a speed horse from winning, i.e. Pace no longer makes the race! The empirical data I provide is that a truly "neutral" track surface should result in front-runners winning at approximate percentages to those of stalkers and closers at various distances. However, only one dirt race resulted in any horse close to the lead winning (Midshipman in the Juvenile) and most winners came from the clouds. This is one lesson I will remember for the future, whether it be the Santa Anita Derby or next year's Breeders' Cup card, also slated for Santa Anita.
The biggest winner of the day was Dubai's Sheik Mohammed al Maktoum and his family. His wife, Princess Haya of Jordan, owns Classic winner Raven's Pass and Juvenile Turf winner Donativum. Sheik Mohammed's Darley Stud campaigns Juvenile winner Midshipman and owns the stallion Elusive Quality, sire of Raven's Pass. After being so kind to American owners by inviting runners such as Cigar, Silver Charm and Curlin to run for the gaudy purse money offered at the Dubai World Cup, Sheik Mohammed now has returned stateside to claim our richest prize. Let's hope this trend does not continue! They certainly have a live bullet going into next year's Derby with Midshipman. Speaking of The Derby, we finally have a several month reprieve to recharge our handicapping batteries prior to the spring Derby trail in February. I know that I sure need a break!
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
October 30, 2008
October 23, 2008
Breeders' Cup Picks
After two nights of scouring the Daily Racing Form (aka,Bettor's Bible), I have been able to eliminate most of the favorites -- in my mind anyway! Those of you who have been to the track with me, or more likely who have heard one of many stories about how I lost a HUGE trifecta on a "head bob" know that I loathe the chalk. Won't touch it with a 10 foot pole, other than an occasional wheel with a long-shot choice. I obtain no excitement whatsoever by risking $5 to win $8. Now I have known some very astute handicappers who would gladly accept a 50% plus rate of return for close to a "sure thing," but those gentlemen have much more bank than me (even before the seemingly daily exhaustion of my 201k). Conversely, I delight in the notion that I can go to the track with a hundred bucks and come back with five grand and a 1099-G from Uncle Sam (hey, we've got to help "spread the wealth", right??).
So proceed with caution on the following "spot play" longshots and don't be calling next week harrassing me about my lousy handicapping skills. I already know that I hit a big trifecta about as often as the Cubs win a pennant... why do you think I have a real job?!
Here we go. It's rare that I play the first race or "daily double," since that is usually relegated to non-winners of two claiming races and I like to save my limited funds for the feature race. But on Breeders' Cup day, every race is a feature! Which reminds me, if you haven't realized it by now, all of the five filly and mare races will be run Friday and nine races will follow on Saturday. So let's try to get off to a fast start in the first Breeders' Cup race (Filly and Mare Sprint) by picking Zaftig (8-1) on top of Intangaroo and favorite Indian Blessing in an exacta part-wheel. Hopefully, you read my blog tribute to Cozzene and Princess Rooney earlier. Well, I'll be damned if the first race doesn't have a grandson of Cozzene (Zaftig) that is coming off a victory against Indian Blessing at a mile. Let's cash a nice ticket early and have some ammunition so we can really start firing at em!
The next race is the Fillies Juvenile Turf where I like Consequence (also at 8-1 odds) coming off a bullet work. She was a bit wide in her last 4th place effort but only beaten a half length. While I mentioned I don't like betting favorites, some of my best wins have been with "beaten favorites" a race or two later when the betting public have given up on them. Everybody can have a bad day at the office every now and then. Hell, it's nearly a daily occurrence with me lately. Let's hope this filly rewards our faith in her.
The Juvenile Fillies race is one that I'm most excited about. Perhaps my best long-shot pick of the weekend is C.S. Silk. Not only because of her two widening six length victories, but because jockey Robby Albarado chose to ride this one over the third choice, Dream Express. I would say this is a bit like inside information, but the kind you can't go to jail for. C.S. Silk is a whopping 15-1 on the morning line odds! I will box her with Stardom Bound and Sky Diva in exactas and trifectas.
In the Filly and Mare Turf I will take a shot with one of many European shippers, Folk Opera (10-1), who wreaks of class while being a perfect 3 for 4 at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Again, I'll box her with the favorites in the exotics. That leads us to the last race on Friday's card, the Ladies Classic. Optimistically, I'll be counting all my money at this point and can simply sit back and relish Zenyatta's quest for racing immortality.
Saturday's action is equally as appealing for my longshot hunches. I'll start in the 3rd race (Dirt Mile) by playing the speedball Two Step Salsa (15-1) across the board and boxing with deserving favorite, Well Armed. The next race is the Turf Mile, where I'll go against logic by playing an American horse, Thorn Song at 12-1. When I first saw this name, I immediately thought of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Thors Echo from several years ago. In addition, this one has speed to burn and has only lost as of late when going longer than one mile. Whatsthescript will be tough to beat, but the far outside post may compromise his chances.
Handicapping the Juvenile really had me perplexed, but I decided to give the nod to Square Eddie (9-2) based on his dominant Keenland romp over the polytrack surface. A hunch is telling me to bet a ticket or two on Mine That Bird at 30-1, who has dominated lesser foes north of the border at Woodbine in Canada.
Skipping ahead to the Breeders' Cup Turf, I tried over and again to beat the favorite, but couldn't. Soldier of Fortune (7-2) looks much the best in this race if he runs to form after his trans-Atlantic journey. Grand Couturier is also in excellent form and may complete the exacta. That brings us to the Classic, possibly Curlin's grand farewell. He certainly will be the focus of the event and without him in the race I would have stayed and watched from home. Many have already conceded the race to Curlin, quite a change in opinion from when trainer and owner wanted no part of a synthetic surface only one month ago. While I would love to see "little big red" in the winner's circle, I have come to expect a letdown after journeying to see Cigar and Smarty Jones clinch records after similar hype. Three of Europe's leading turf horses decided to give it a go in the Classic this year, thinking this may be their best shot on the synthetic surface. I believe that Duke of Marmalade has the class to challenge Curlin. At 10-1, this five time Group I winner this year is being grossly disrespected, probably due to his flat performance in his last start. Again, looking at the entire body of work, I expect a return to form for the Aidan O'Brien trained Coolmoore Farm standout. Go Between is heralded in California, as is three year-old Colonel John, who has took his time coming back after his gut-wrenching nose victory in the Travers Stakes in August. But the wild card in this race is Casino Drive, who scratched the week of the Belmont Stakes. This Japanese based horse and trainer then played hide and seek until two weeks ago, winning a conditioned allowance race at Santa Anita as his tune-up. Many "experts" are saying that his looks alone will put him in the winners' circle, whatever that means.
Good luck to all of your picks, as long as they don't interfere with my long-shot specials!
Eric
Horse Racing
So proceed with caution on the following "spot play" longshots and don't be calling next week harrassing me about my lousy handicapping skills. I already know that I hit a big trifecta about as often as the Cubs win a pennant... why do you think I have a real job?!
Here we go. It's rare that I play the first race or "daily double," since that is usually relegated to non-winners of two claiming races and I like to save my limited funds for the feature race. But on Breeders' Cup day, every race is a feature! Which reminds me, if you haven't realized it by now, all of the five filly and mare races will be run Friday and nine races will follow on Saturday. So let's try to get off to a fast start in the first Breeders' Cup race (Filly and Mare Sprint) by picking Zaftig (8-1) on top of Intangaroo and favorite Indian Blessing in an exacta part-wheel. Hopefully, you read my blog tribute to Cozzene and Princess Rooney earlier. Well, I'll be damned if the first race doesn't have a grandson of Cozzene (Zaftig) that is coming off a victory against Indian Blessing at a mile. Let's cash a nice ticket early and have some ammunition so we can really start firing at em!
The next race is the Fillies Juvenile Turf where I like Consequence (also at 8-1 odds) coming off a bullet work. She was a bit wide in her last 4th place effort but only beaten a half length. While I mentioned I don't like betting favorites, some of my best wins have been with "beaten favorites" a race or two later when the betting public have given up on them. Everybody can have a bad day at the office every now and then. Hell, it's nearly a daily occurrence with me lately. Let's hope this filly rewards our faith in her.
The Juvenile Fillies race is one that I'm most excited about. Perhaps my best long-shot pick of the weekend is C.S. Silk. Not only because of her two widening six length victories, but because jockey Robby Albarado chose to ride this one over the third choice, Dream Express. I would say this is a bit like inside information, but the kind you can't go to jail for. C.S. Silk is a whopping 15-1 on the morning line odds! I will box her with Stardom Bound and Sky Diva in exactas and trifectas.
In the Filly and Mare Turf I will take a shot with one of many European shippers, Folk Opera (10-1), who wreaks of class while being a perfect 3 for 4 at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Again, I'll box her with the favorites in the exotics. That leads us to the last race on Friday's card, the Ladies Classic. Optimistically, I'll be counting all my money at this point and can simply sit back and relish Zenyatta's quest for racing immortality.
Saturday's action is equally as appealing for my longshot hunches. I'll start in the 3rd race (Dirt Mile) by playing the speedball Two Step Salsa (15-1) across the board and boxing with deserving favorite, Well Armed. The next race is the Turf Mile, where I'll go against logic by playing an American horse, Thorn Song at 12-1. When I first saw this name, I immediately thought of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Thors Echo from several years ago. In addition, this one has speed to burn and has only lost as of late when going longer than one mile. Whatsthescript will be tough to beat, but the far outside post may compromise his chances.
Handicapping the Juvenile really had me perplexed, but I decided to give the nod to Square Eddie (9-2) based on his dominant Keenland romp over the polytrack surface. A hunch is telling me to bet a ticket or two on Mine That Bird at 30-1, who has dominated lesser foes north of the border at Woodbine in Canada.
Skipping ahead to the Breeders' Cup Turf, I tried over and again to beat the favorite, but couldn't. Soldier of Fortune (7-2) looks much the best in this race if he runs to form after his trans-Atlantic journey. Grand Couturier is also in excellent form and may complete the exacta. That brings us to the Classic, possibly Curlin's grand farewell. He certainly will be the focus of the event and without him in the race I would have stayed and watched from home. Many have already conceded the race to Curlin, quite a change in opinion from when trainer and owner wanted no part of a synthetic surface only one month ago. While I would love to see "little big red" in the winner's circle, I have come to expect a letdown after journeying to see Cigar and Smarty Jones clinch records after similar hype. Three of Europe's leading turf horses decided to give it a go in the Classic this year, thinking this may be their best shot on the synthetic surface. I believe that Duke of Marmalade has the class to challenge Curlin. At 10-1, this five time Group I winner this year is being grossly disrespected, probably due to his flat performance in his last start. Again, looking at the entire body of work, I expect a return to form for the Aidan O'Brien trained Coolmoore Farm standout. Go Between is heralded in California, as is three year-old Colonel John, who has took his time coming back after his gut-wrenching nose victory in the Travers Stakes in August. But the wild card in this race is Casino Drive, who scratched the week of the Belmont Stakes. This Japanese based horse and trainer then played hide and seek until two weeks ago, winning a conditioned allowance race at Santa Anita as his tune-up. Many "experts" are saying that his looks alone will put him in the winners' circle, whatever that means.
Good luck to all of your picks, as long as they don't interfere with my long-shot specials!
Eric
Horse Racing
October 15, 2008
Breeders' Cup teaser
Big Brown may be out for the Classic, but come next Saturday I'm leaving on a jet plane, don't know if I'll be back again. The allure of seeing Curlin race in person again was just too much to resist. I previously saw the colt last spring at Oaklawn Park dominating other three year-olds. After all, the 25th anniversary of what John Forsythe (of "Dynasty" fame) originally coined as "Racing's Greatest Day" is about so much more than a two horse confrontation that wasn't meant to be. This culmination of the year's greatest equine performers has evolved into two days of truly world class thoroughbreds, thus, aptly renamed the "World Championships" of horse racing. Considering that picturesque Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California is one of the last remaining iconic racing venues I have yet to attend, what a way to check this one off my bucket list!
It's hard to believe that only one horse has ever successfully defending his Classic victory, back when Tiznow grittily held off Giant's Causeway and Sakhee en route to winning back to back Classic titles. Will that be Curlin's destiny on a synthetic surface where he's never even raced? Or will he face a similar fate to Unbridled, Cigar and Pleasantly Perfect, who all finished third trying to defend their Classic triumph? Curlin will certainly have to earn this victory with the likes of Go Between, Colonel John and the intriguing Japanese import Casino Drive, who was forced to scratch the week of the Belmont Stakes back in June. Win or lose (in my opinion, only if he loses), owner Jess Jackson stated he very well may race one more time before concluding his monumental career.
The other standout race, at least on paper, will be the Distaff, er... "Ladies Classic" by its proper name. Zenyatta tries to keep her unbeaten streak alive against rivals Hystericalady and Ginger Punch. Can you still call it a rivalry if one mare has dominated the same fields again and again? As an Arkansas Razorbacks fan, I have to loosely apply the term "rivalry." But seriously, this is one time I would have liked to see her connections go against conventional wisdom and give this monster mare a chance against the boys in the Classic. If the three year-old filly Eight Belles (God rest her soul) could trounce a decent group of boys (sans Big Brown), I would think that a more mature and physically imposing Zenyatta could hold her own against this group. But, they didn't ask this guy's opinion.
Finally, the Filly and Mare Turf division may be the deepest field of them all, with a nice blend of U.S. based runners and European invaders. The various ruling families of Dubai will be represented, as will top English and Irish operations, who traditionally do especially well in the Turf races. However, this year the synthetic surface is also likely to play into the imports hands since grass horses can generally translate success to the non-traditional surfaces as well.
I will have more specific tips/comments on most Breeders' Cup races middle of next week, after I have time to study the official entrants' charts that will be announced tomorrow. Just a reminder to my "bettor" friends that the DRF will be selling full past performances of all entries by the end of day tomorrow, giving you over a week to fine tune your handicapping... dangerous for sure! And for those of you without a local track or OTB nearby, please refer to the link below at www.bodoglife.com .
Eric
Horse Racing
It's hard to believe that only one horse has ever successfully defending his Classic victory, back when Tiznow grittily held off Giant's Causeway and Sakhee en route to winning back to back Classic titles. Will that be Curlin's destiny on a synthetic surface where he's never even raced? Or will he face a similar fate to Unbridled, Cigar and Pleasantly Perfect, who all finished third trying to defend their Classic triumph? Curlin will certainly have to earn this victory with the likes of Go Between, Colonel John and the intriguing Japanese import Casino Drive, who was forced to scratch the week of the Belmont Stakes back in June. Win or lose (in my opinion, only if he loses), owner Jess Jackson stated he very well may race one more time before concluding his monumental career.
The other standout race, at least on paper, will be the Distaff, er... "Ladies Classic" by its proper name. Zenyatta tries to keep her unbeaten streak alive against rivals Hystericalady and Ginger Punch. Can you still call it a rivalry if one mare has dominated the same fields again and again? As an Arkansas Razorbacks fan, I have to loosely apply the term "rivalry." But seriously, this is one time I would have liked to see her connections go against conventional wisdom and give this monster mare a chance against the boys in the Classic. If the three year-old filly Eight Belles (God rest her soul) could trounce a decent group of boys (sans Big Brown), I would think that a more mature and physically imposing Zenyatta could hold her own against this group. But, they didn't ask this guy's opinion.
Finally, the Filly and Mare Turf division may be the deepest field of them all, with a nice blend of U.S. based runners and European invaders. The various ruling families of Dubai will be represented, as will top English and Irish operations, who traditionally do especially well in the Turf races. However, this year the synthetic surface is also likely to play into the imports hands since grass horses can generally translate success to the non-traditional surfaces as well.
I will have more specific tips/comments on most Breeders' Cup races middle of next week, after I have time to study the official entrants' charts that will be announced tomorrow. Just a reminder to my "bettor" friends that the DRF will be selling full past performances of all entries by the end of day tomorrow, giving you over a week to fine tune your handicapping... dangerous for sure! And for those of you without a local track or OTB nearby, please refer to the link below at www.bodoglife.com .
Eric
Horse Racing
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