Derby 138 - Final Ranking

Unlike most items (such as tax filings and house chores), I have taken the initiative to handicap The Derby two weeks in advance, leaving the final betting strategy until after the post position draw. I have removed horse 8, 9 and 10 from my last ranking; News Pending, Najjaar and Midnight Transfer since they failed to fire as long-shots in their last prep and won't be in The Derby 20 horse starting gate. The race is most assuredly going to get 20 actual starters this year with the four also eligible list in case of late scratches. So this is how I see things heading into Louisville...

1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.

2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.

3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.

4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.

5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.

6) Union Rags: I actually think he will be more bettable after his 3rd place finish getting boxed in the entire race of the Florida Derby. I still feel that he may have distance limitations, but Matz has commented that his huge size and running style is much different than other Dixie Union offspring, so he could be the exception (ala Big Brown via Boundary). Certainly the one I like most coming out of Florida, although Take Charge Indy appears to be stepping up at the right time.

7) Alpha: Since as many Derby winners come off place finishes in their final prep, I prefer this one's style to that of the undefeated Gemologist out of the Wood Memorial, which speed numbers were one of the slower 9 furlong prep races. But his breeding is solid for this race and he could be sitting on his breakout race, which puts him right there at the wire.

8) Daddy Nose Best: Sire Scat Daddy is off to a surprisingly hot start and there seems to be more stamina to this horse being out of the classic winning damsire, Thunder Gulch. Has improved nicely in his only two starts as a 3YO after trying the turf late in his juvenile campaign. Perfect closing style and not too many of these can boast two wins under their belts in 9 furlong races. In my opinion, he may present the best betting action as the livest of deep long-shots.

9)El Padrino: Pretty sure he will make The Derby field even though currently on the earnings bubble, but totally disappointed with his flat stretch run at Gulfstream. Perhaps his jock was too pre-occupied with trying to pin Union Rags down on rail to actually run his race. I've been burned several times with tossing my early season picks in The Derby due to one bad race (Bluegrass Cat), so I'll hope a change in tactics or riders will get him back on his game at much nicer odds. But seems like 2nd/3rd could be the best this guy has to offer.

10) Prospective: Certainly did not run as I had hoped in the Blue Grass, but Keenland's polytrack is different than the synthetic surfaces on which he ran in Canada. He had been very consistent closing in his prior dirt starts at Tampa Bay Downs and I will likely put him on bottom in my exotics. Some years, a horse good enough to run third can possibly even steal the race (i.e., Giacomo, Mine That Bird). He is one of numerous Breeders' Cup Juvenile starters back to battle in the big dance!

Don't forget to follow my blog the week of The Derby both here and at my HRN site under 12thCrown... 
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Animal Kingdom brings Team Valor deserved Derby glory

Barry Irwin is the man! One of my first Derby idols was Cot Campbell, when the pioneer of horse racing syndicates campaigned the ever popular, Summer Squall, to a runner-up finish in the 1990 Kentucky Derby to Unbridled. Then in early 1997, the sharp eye of Barry Irwin led him to drop a large sum of money to acquire a horse for his racing syndicate with a crooked leg called Captain Bodgit after a third place finish at Gulfstream Park. Not only was Bodgit a paddler, he was from an unheralded sire, Saint Ballado. But Irwin's intuition reigned supreme and the Captain finished just short of Silver Charm in that year's Derby and Preakness Stakes after winning two Grade I preps in the interim.

While other top owners and syndicate managers keep overbidding for the same bloodstock in American sales, Irwin quietly goes about his business attending races and sales in South Africa, Brazil and Germany -- not quite the racing meccas. He acquired Animal Kingdom's dam with this model and in her first foal (that essentially occured as a backup after the sire he sought for the mating - Kingmambo - was injured) he captured the greatest two minutes in sports with a horse that still appears to have huge upside, considering he is also a beast on turf and synthetic surfaces. And if any of you reading this has a stamina laden mare ready to hit the mattresses in the Florida region, now would be a good time to visit the funny named sire Leroidesanimaux before his stud fee rockets past the 2011 price of $10,000.

Having recently set up a similar syndicate to purchase a two year-old in training from a top regional sire at the same 10K stud fee, this is the success that pulls in fringe players like several of my partners to hopefully be hooked by the sport and become major owners of tomorrow. Irwin has ushered in countless of new owners into the game with a business model that isn't sexy, but posts much higher than average ROI with his discipline and keen eye for detail. And to top it all off, he started his career as a sports-writer (like I aspire to be!). So Barry Irwin, you didn't just win the nation's greatest race for you and your dozen or so partners, you won it for racing enthusiasts everywhere. And your post-race comments were those of respect and humility, something you need to teach to the new kids on the block.

Animal Kingdom claims Derby 137 in a decent time (especially after historically slow fractions) with the largest group of spectaters to ever view The Derby. Following Barry Irwin's plan and resulting success, I am thrilled to be a member of this sport along with several other new owners with dreams of our own stakes races that lie ahead. And I have a feeling that many other potential owners will be lining up with dollars after hearing more about how easy horse ownership can be with folks like Mr. Irwin at the helm. And if you haven't read my morning blog, my respect for him sure doesn't hurt after having a certain #16 horse keyed in some backup exotic bets (and if Santiva had gotten up for fourth - beaten about a length - I would have a ticket that could get me at least a 10% share of Team Valor's next offering. There's always next year!).

I hope all your Derby dreams come true, either today or in the future. Don't give up on the dream. Something good happens to good people every day. Trainer Graham Motion and owner Barry Irwin are proof of that. And a tough break for Robby Albarado, who won a stakes race on the undercard in spite of a recent smashed up face and broken nose, but lost the mount on Animal Kingdom because of the injury. I hope to see you on "the King" again in the Preakness. I'll definitely be pulling for you.

Happy Derby Dreams to all!