Derby week trivia - Wednesday

Hump day during Derby week means two things in the Kordsmeier household; 1) post position draw and first glimpse at odds for The Derby, and 2) time to brew and age the “not-so-simple” mint infused syrup for Saturday’s Derby party. As is customary, the bartender will get an initial sample while the fermentation process takes place… very helpful when plotting hundreds of statistical samples (my own monte carlo simulation, if you will) of possible pace scenarios based on post positions. Now are you getting a sense of why I love The Derby so?

On the training front, Churchill Downs has been muddy for the last several days, forcing most of the entrants to have their last major workout on an "off" track. On Tuesday, Awesome Act drilled 4 furlongs in :48 1/5 on the slop and the expected pacesetter - Conveyance zipped 5 furlongs in :59 4/5. Inspired by these workouts, I laced up the New Balance's and labored 4 miles in :36 (errr, check that - 36 minutes!) on the Katy Trail and I was blowing hard after the work until I cooled down with a refreshing Coors Light. Have I mentioned the mint juleps?

I came across the following from the website representing thoroughbred racing, www.ntra.com, and thought you may also get a kick out of this. I’ve often stated that the months of March and April are the best months for sports fans, as we welcome back America’s pastime to the diamond (especially for Cubs fans!), NCAA college hoops are in full effect and potential Derby superstars are being formed every Saturday. This writer parallels the Derby experience with March Madness…

Top 5 reasons Triple Crown series beats March Madness by Eric Wing, NTRA Media Relations (with my emphasis added):
1. Sometimes our 16-seeds actually win. (Butler came really close this year, but Mine That Bird and Giacomo have actually taken our top prize.)

2. Our grand finale is better than yours. (The greatest two minutes in sports, bar none! And we have longer off-seasons to recover from the stress and common letdown after the Belmont - especially if we backed losers.)

3. Our "coaches" haven't forgotten how to compete with dignity. (Well, barring the Rick Dutrow and Big Brown circus of 2008 I would agree with this statement. Trainers like Baffert and Lukas have added more class as they have aged. Derby favorites such as Nafzger and Zito have always been great ambassadors for the sport.)

4. Our sport doesn't pretend that betting isn't going on. (Amen to that, brother! Many states with lotteries boast of the “economic impact” from the lottery on jobs, education funding, etc. How about the impact of the thoroughbred industry? Even at independent tracks such as Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, seasonal employment and the tourism industry swell thanks to the gambling juice (ranging from 13% on straight win-place-show bets to 20% on exotics such as exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s) that finance purse money, which in turn gives owners payback on their investment to pay the jockeys cut as well as training fees for their entire staff. It also doesn’t hurt that some people hit “paydirt” each year in The Derby. I’ll never forget in 2005 when long-shots Giacomo and Closing Argument ran first and second that sparked a superfecta that paid over $1.7 million! For the record, that was more than the owner’s (Jerry Moss of Zenyatta fame) share of the purse money for winning The Derby!)

5. Some Triple Crown TV correspondents can conduct interviews while on horseback. (I particularly enjoy the last point. What’s greater than seeing Donna Barton-Brothers or Caton Bredar with mane flying in their face capturing the first emotional exchange with the jockey who has just captured the greatest feat in sports, perhaps for the first time?!)

Trivia answer from yesterday is: “My name is Darrell, but you can call me D”… hit it Run. As a youngster, Darrell Wayne Lukas was the first person I “knew” that carried his first initial. It always struck me as odd. I even call him “D. Wayne” when I occasionally get close enough to him at a track to tell my wife I had a conversation with D. Wayne. Then I discovered that many more folks did this, from P. Allan Smith to J. Paul Getty, L. Ron Hubbard to P. Diddy. There’s something about this method that resonates with me. It seems to me that in a subliminal way it may help people become well known and move up in the world to achieve great fortune and fame. I think I’ll name my first racehorse bought at auction “A. Super Star” so he will have a better chance on the track, especially if his sire happens to be Super Saver! By the way, for those horse novices, Todd Pletcher plied his trade under “the master” D. Wayne (who started his Derby career with an equally pathetic 0 for 12 before busting out with a filly – Winning Colors ‘88) for 7 years before going out on his own, and look at him now!

Derby week trivia 136 - Tuesday

More drama from the Pletcher camp on Monday as he calls an audible and pulls out WinStar Farm's speedster Rule. This will definitely have an impact on the pace of The Derby, which many astute handicappers are calling for blistering early fractions. I'll give you my perspective on likely pace scenario on Friday when I pick my top 3 selections. However, in yanking Rule (watch how this horse tired in the FL Derby at 9 furlongs and I say this was a good move!) Todd replaced him with his filly, Devil May Care.


Until recently, I would have easily discounted the filly's entry. I backed the monster filly Excellent Meeting in the 1999 Derby (Charismatic) and although she finished a respectable 5th it discouraged me from betting fillies in this particular race. Hence, no winning tickets when Eight Belles ran a courageous second to Big Brown in 2008. I was shocked as Rags to Riches out-muscled Champion Curlin down the lane in the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes. But for the record, I did key Rachel Alexandra in last year’s Preakness Stakes when she was clearly superior. (Sidebar: Rachel is working up a storm and will be running on Friday's Kentucky Oaks undercard -- not that I'm paying attention to a Jess Jackson owned horse!) But these fillies had dominated their division and each strung together a solid series of prep races. Devil May Care, on the other hand, beat only 5 fillies at Gulfstream Park in her only victory this year, while running a dull 5th in her seasonal bow at the Fairgrounds. Someone out there please comment on why I should be afraid of the Devil in my exotics.

The answer to yesterday's trivia question was Eddie Delahoussaye, the original cajun bush track extraordinaire jockey who paved the way (along with Randy Romero) for current greats including Kent "squeaky" Desourmeaux, Robby Albarado (of Curlin fame) and Calvin Bo-rel, who garnered the most votes. I guess there is something to the recency effect, since Calvin has been front and center since his Derby triumph aboard Street Sense in '07 and obviously with Mine That Bird last year. Of course, Ron Turcotte was the other jockey to win consecutive runnings when he piloted Penny Chenery's Riva Ridge to Derby glory in 1972 followed by his lesser-known stablemate in '73, Secretariat (just kidding -- by the way, get ready for Diane Lane's portrayal of the first woman of racing in the motion picture "Secretariat" coming to a theatre near you on Oct. 8, 2010).

Eskenderaya to miss Derby... Derby week 136 kickoff!

Derby week officially began Sunday morning with the typical drama we have come to expect in the craziness that is... The Derby. And for the second year in a row I will be losing my "lock - cinch - key" horse about one week before they were set to run, as Quality Road was sent packing on Monday of Derby week last year with a quarter crack. The extent of Big E's injury wasn't well known, just the following comments by Pletcher, "He's got some filling. We're not sure of the extent of what we re dealing with. But he's not going to run." You know this has to get Todd questioning why the horse racing gods are so much against him, as his many other runners figure to be mid-priced horses that would be a tall task to get the monkey off his back. (Speaking of course, of his 0 for 24 record in the big dance.)


On Saturday the Derby Trial was run as a last hope resort to get some graded earnings to put a few of the "bubble" horses in the top 20 list. However, favored Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince's chances were dashed when longshot Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel took the top spot on a day when Borel posted five winners at Churchill Downs. At this rate, the best handicapping strategy may be to bet Borel's horse every race, including Super Saver in The Derby. After all, he has won two out of the last three runnings! My one-time tout, Aikenite, rallied for the place and now has the earnings to make the field, but team Dogwood has said they will not wheel back in just one week for The Derby.

I have been subdued for most of my Sunday, struggling with the thought of a potential superstar not getting the opportunity to etch his place in history. Last year I had a solid backup plan with Pioneerof The Nile, this year not so much. Perhaps I'll be able to build back some confidence while pouring through past performances and breeding nicks this week. The most profound impact of this defection will be on the betting schemes in the world's greatest betting race. My "budget" for Saturday just got exponentially larger since I'll now be using 3 or 4 horses in the first position of my exotic part-wheels. But those who were hoping to somehow beat Big E are very upset about this, since huge flows towards him would have boosted the wager pools and payouts if he ran out of the money. Now, all that money will flow to the next tier of favorites and water down those payouts.

Please note the trivia question on the left margin -- go ahead and try your luck (no one knows who's guess is right or wrong!). Happy Derby Week 136, our 14th year of Derby trivia!

Eric

Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap

Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.

My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."


1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).


2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.


3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.


4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.


5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.


6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)


7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!

8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.

9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!

10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.

Zenyatta struts to sweet 16th win; ties Cigar and Citation's mark

Zenyatta looked like a schoolgirl on a playground at Oaklawn Park on a sun-drenched Friday afternoon. Let's forget about the fact that she's ginormous (I heard a wide range in sizes from the "casual" race fans near my perch on the rail), but she really looked like she was having a big time as she was prancing her front hooves during the post parade and hamming it up for her legion of fans armed with cameras. During the race, her head was erect for more than half of the race as she was frolicking at the rear of the small pack down the backstretch while others were put into stiff drives by their jockeys, heads low and ears pinned back. As if Mike Smith decided to finally let Zenyatta "come out and play," he gave her a bit of rein as she swooped to the front on the turn and was already on the lead straightening for the drive, uncharacteristic for Big Z at that point in the race. Of course, the rest is history, as she was never pushed or challenged in the stretch even though the opening fractions were very slow, yet she still posted a decent final time of 1:50 3/5, which should compare favorably to the Arkansas Derby horses going postward today.


This was not only a homecoming for team Zenyatta, who's victory in the 2008 Apple Blossom in only her fourth start really made her a national name fairly early in her streak -- much like Cigar when he captured the Oaklawn handicap in the 6th victory in his streak of 16 consecutive wins. But Mike Smith also was based at Oaklawn Park decades ago and was very gracious to the 44,973 men, women and a lot of children who played hooky to witness greatness as he cantered her back up the stretch before returning to her customary spot in the winner's circle, much like a baseball slugger taking a curtain call. Mike waved to the crowd and pointed to the gentle giant underneath, signaling that it was she who deserves all the credit. Along those lines, another shout out to Jerry and Ann Moss, the owners who were willing to bring her back to Oaklawn in spite of "that other" no-show and a purse reduction from $5 million to $500,000.


All in all, an enjoyable day at the races with most of those casual racegoers packed into the stands to be entertained. Zenyatta did not disappoint. I didn't even mind spending 9 hours in the car for a few hours at the track, playing hooky on a Friday afternoon, hanging out with my brother and the Big Z. Thanks for the memories, Zenyatta.

April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update

Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.



2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.



3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.



4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.



5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.



6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.

7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.

8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.



9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!

10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.

Rebel Stakes recap and first "final" Derby prep this Saturday

It's hard to believe that just one week after the return to the track of several top 10 Derby prospects, a few will be making their last tune-up race in Saturday's Florida Derby, six weeks from the "big dance" (it is NCAA March madness after all!).

I've been chomping at the bit to discuss Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where I met up with a raucous crowd that is sure to become the next big annual event. What a perfect weekend in Hot Springs, when the dogwoods were yielding their virgin blooms and the track was abuzz with electricity, which would ultimately be unplugged with the shocking loss of Rachel A. later in the day. Lookin At Lucky "looks" like a champion, well maybe because he was last year's two year-old champion. But what I mean is that I can clearly see him in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May with the familiar silver haired Bob Baffert high fiving his beer drinking owner friend, Mike Pegram, in the same silks as Sssshhhhh, Real Quiet, claimed The Derby with back in 1998. Let's hope this first race off the shelf won't take too much out of the champ. And how about that Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise? What a game effort in defeat in also his first effort of 2010. Although, I still get leary with the top of his bloodline since he seems to be coming up a tad short in all of his distance races. Dublin really disappointed me in that I thought this would be his break-out race. While he did make a big move approaching the turn, he flattened out into the stretch which also leads me to believe his best distance is 7 furlongs to one mile.

At Santa Anita they had a bit of an upset with Sidney's Candy (recall brother Chocolate Candy from last spring?) and Interactif taking the win-place over Caracortado and American Lion. Meanwhile at the Tampa Bay Derby it was an ugly race with the top four horses - including my Super Saver - trading places all around the racetrack. Many people are jumping on the winner's - Odysseus - bandwagon, but I'm not sure about this one even after his 15 length romp leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither or these races impressed me near as much as the Rebel, and the Beyer speed figures back me up on this one.

This Derby is shaping up with more speed than any of recent memory. I'm not talking about the blazing speed of Songandaprayer or Smoke Glacken, but rather many of the top prospects seem hell bent on getting the lead and trying to dictate pace. Perhaps it seems this way since Todd Pletcher trains about half of this year's three year-olds! But seriously, did anyone else see Super Saver's race at Tampa and watch that horse spurt away from the field in the opening strides, only to lose by a length at the wire? Having natural or tactical speed is one thing, but I'll never understand gunning a horse to the front in a 9 furlong race. Oh well, the point of all this is that I am giving particular consideration to those who are comfortable having some dirt splashed in their face and routinely pick up horses in the stretch. I feel somewhat burned last year with Friesan Fire (even though Pioneerof the Nile was my top pick with a nice place finish) after he broke poorly and was thus "Brooks & Dunn" due to his running style.

Without further delay, here is my latest and greatest top 10 list heading into the Florida Derby; two defections with American Lion and Dublin.

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial for better spacing leading into Louisville.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt.

3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time.

4) Rule - Speedball now the likely favorite for the Florida Derby this Saturday. Perhaps the six weeks will keep his tempo level.

5) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to 'Lucky.

6) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give one more try.

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Truest closer of the bunch!

9) Radiohead - This diminutive lead pony comes from the same connections as Big Brown. Clearly, this one is not being doped up by Rick Dutrow, but he recently wore down much larger horses in a 1 mile race at Gulfstream and may upset in the Florida Derby.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Be sure to update your WinStar Farm Fantasy Stable for the three horse addition by tomorrow if you haven't already. I'd use Radiohead in that pool as a sleeper!

Jess Jackson pulls plug on Rachel in Apple Blossom for second time

After being in Hot Springs for the weekend to witness a riveted 50th edition of the Rebel Stakes (blog to follow later in week), I have some advice for billionaire wine magnate Jess Jackson. Stay the hell out of Hot Springs for the foreseeable future. On second thought, stay entirely out of the state of Arkansas for a really long time. Bert the cabbie hates your freakin' guts. As does Billy the bellman at Arlington Park. Sue the waitress at Hester's restaurant called you a really despicable name and my nephew Daniel Lee thinks you are a scaredy-cat. And I think they all have a right in their opinion considering you cost many of these people the most lucrative payday in their careers. And that's saying something at Billy's age!


Of course, I'm speaking of his decision to withdraw Rachel from the Oaklawn showdown with Zenyatta in 4 weeks that Charles Cella had previously moved back to accomodate him! During my time in the Spa City (of the south, anyway) I polled those in service trades what their expected financial impact would be from the "Race for the Ages" and if they believed the race would actually happen. To my astonishment, none believed the race WOULDN'T happen! Typically responses were, "What are you talkin' bout? They done already said they were gonna race here!" Might sound a tad naive, but in the Natural state a man is only as good as his word.

Yep, they were already counting their money from the 100,000 or so additional horse lovers expected to come from all corners of the land. Rumors (some perhaps true, others exaggerated) swirled about "the sheik" who tried to reserve the entire Arlington hotel but had to settle for another hotel off the strip and many lake houses being booked for $200,000 for the weekend. Stories of Oaklawn seats and boxes selling for up to 5 times the price of season seats! Many of these transactions were already consummated, but for most of the mom and pop businesses their revenue depends on actual headcount and that will surely drop after the dream match is history.


And what about the announcement from Jess Jackson, "While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule." This doesn't resemble an apology as much as it hints at ire towards Oaklawn Park for "rushing the devolopment" of last year's wonder horse, Rachel Alexandra. Rather than expressing regret to the fans and to Charles Cella, owner of Oaklawn Park, for his multiple commitments and then going back on his word he reminds us all through "just as I had anticipated" he is some form of oracle who is to be praised for his wisdom. It's yet another example of how his ego is actually turning people against one of the greatest racehorses of this or any eras. Much like it went down with Curlin a couple of years ago after his synthetic flop in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. The pattern is a trail of excuses with Jess Jackson, just as he had laid them out even before Rachel's New Orleans Ladies classic defeat.


What is most unfortunate is that this news is further distraction to the real story that is ZENYATTA. Oaklawn's press release reminded me that Zenyatta (who still plans on racing in the Apple Blossom, by the way, in spite of its reduced 500K purse without Rachel's presence) will be trying to equal Cigar and Citation's U.S. record of 16 consecutive unrestricted race wins. This is an incredible achievement that at the time of Cigar's record in 1996 many believed would be harder to accomplish than another triple crown champion. So don't think that the crowd will be any less jubilant in seeing a deserving champion, albeit smaller in numbers. The only thing Arkansans enjoy better than a good day at the track is Razorback football and the Hogs are out of season. I know I will be thrilled to see "Big Zen" for a third time, especially after pushing around the Grade I field in the stretch of the Santa Margarita (the race, not the drink) in California. Just don't expect those in attendance to be celebrating on race day with any Kendall Jackson wines!

Cheers.
Eric

Derby Top 10 Ranking #2

Sorry for the delay in posting... I've had 5 trips over the past two weeks. However, one of those was well worth the travel time as I saw Eskendereya crush a solid Fountain of Youth field in North Miami Beach. Gulfstream Park has been getting their share of talented three year-olds the past few years (Barbaro '06 and Big Brown '08) but neither were this impressive! What I like the most about a performance like this is that it occured with typical pace figures for the split times, meaning it very likely can be duplicated. We'll see if he keeps his A game in the Florida Derby in three weeks.

I was actually at Gulfstream to see a friend and co-contributor to my blog in previous years, Clay Sanders, who's racing syndicate saddled Positive Split to a 7th place finish in the FOY after chasing the Big E for 7 furlongs. Note to you handicappers: P' Split will be dangerous in future races at a mile or less at a nice price!

Three of my previous top 10 colts have still yet to run this season, so I'll keep them on the tally albeit with lower ranks. I'm only discarding one - #3 Buddy's Saint - due to his no-show as the 9-5 favorite, although there is no doubt his chances were compromised having to check mightily into the first turn. Still, I begrudgingly had him listed in the first place and now have an "excuse" to add another Oaklawn runner - Dublin. Here's my new top 10 as of March 1st:

1) Eskendereya - Big plus was his early January one mile allowance race, which will give him 3 races under his belt (all dirt) heading into Churchill. Looking for a first or second in the FL Derby.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a ho-hum work but Baffert knows when to crank them up.

3) Super Saver - Pletcher charge now likely to debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel... yes!

4) Dublin - Huge move for 2nd in Southwest Stakes for speedy son of Afleet Alex, who I believe was a superb three year-old colt. Perfect style for Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and has been tearing up Oaklawn Park in works all year long now that he can actually breathe!

5) American Lion - I'm leaving him in original spot after dueling with Tiz Chrome and getting passed in stretch over Santa Anita synthetic surface that truly favors closers. Fastest time of the meet at 1 1/16 miles.

6) Rule - Grandson of 200o Derby winner Fu-Peg has stamina in breeding. Question is can they harness his speed in the Lane's End?

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Apparently, he's a head case, but weren't we all at that age?!

9) Noble's Promise - Speedy bullet work gearing up for 2010 debut in Florida.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Happy Racing!

Err... check that, Rachel now back on for modified Apple Blossom

Of course, one day after I posted my scathing article towards Jess Jackson, he and Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella came to terms on pushing back the Apple Blossom by 6 days. It was previously announced that for the first time the distance will be extended from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, something I feel will benefit Zenyatta as the distance goes further. But clearly Rachel has demonstrated she can get that distance as she covered 1 3/16 miles en route to her Preakness victory against Mine That Bird and others last summer.

Along those lines, both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta had a published workout this morning... Rachel a more decisive 5 furlong move at the Fair Grounds in 1:00 1/5 and Zenyatta went 6 panels in 1:14 over the Pro-Ride (synthetic) surface at Hollywood Park. Both plan to race March 13th as a prep for Oaklawn's "Race for the Ages." Now that it appears that they will meet on the track, I have nothing further to say on the matter at this time.

However, I will have another 2010 Derby trail post tomorrow in anticipation of my Fountain of Youth trip, so please stay tuned!
E