Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap

Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.

My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."


1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).


2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.


3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.


4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.


5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.


6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)


7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!

8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.

9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!

10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.

Bo-Rail did what?

If you were as shocked as I was to see Mine That Bird explode through the rail into the stretch, you were probably thinking it was "the other" Birdstone horse, Summer Bird, who finished a fast closing third in the Arkansas Derby. But after further review, it was a horse who in 2009 lost both starts in the racing mecca of, wait for it....... New Mexico!

Here I was watching my pick, Pioneerof the Nile, pulling away from the field turning for home after withstanding rapid quarter and half mile fractions of 22.4 and 47.1 (which moderated the middle part of the race) and hearing my long-shot's - Musket Man - name being called into the stretch when a horse skipped the rail and escaped from the field. Of course it would have to be Borel, a crafty cajun' who I was able to cheer the day before as he piloted the legendary Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks (future post coming on this remarkable filly and my first "fillies Derby" day). But on this day I was hoping the bastard would come out of his stirrups so I could hit the tri! But alas, it was not meant to be for me yet another year, even though I always take pride in winning my own handicapping challenge (Tin Cup, anyone?) with the 2nd and 3rd place finisher (Musket Man at a nice price!).

After my multiple mint juleps had evaporated, I couldn't shake the familiarity of Mine That Bird. That's when I realized this was my long-shot special in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. My blog posting as appeared on October 23rd follows...

"Handicapping the Juvenile really had me perplexed, but I decided to "give the nod to Square Eddie (9-2) based on his dominant Keenland romp over the polytrack surface. A hunch is telling me to bet a ticket or two on Mine That Bird at 30-1, who has dominated lesser foes north of the border at Woodbine in Canada."

So for the second time in recent years, I had touted a winner a race or two prior to The Derby but jumped off the bandwagon when things weren't going great (my Razorback friends can attest to this). The other scenario was Bluegrass Cat, who I loved in the Blue Grass Stakes but hated that effort and totally dismissed in The Derby as he ran second at 30-1.

Musket Man proved his distance concerns were unfounded... I thought his previous wins at 9 furlongs already proved this. Other closers fared much better as I expected in the 3rd - 6th spots, such as Musket's show, Papa Clem - proved to be able to rate two races in a row, Chocolate Candy and the aforementioned Summer Bird. The post-time favorite honors easily went to Friesan Fire at 3.80 - 1, who finished next to last after bumping hard at the start and splitting a severe quarter crack at the onset of the race. My greatest satisfaction was seeing Dunkirk finish up the track as the 5-1 second choice in the wagering. Sure, he got a bad break along with many others in a 19 horse field... part of the reason I discounted a 3 time starter who had no seasoning as a two year-old. Several other underlays ran poorly, notably General Quarters at 10-1, Hold Me Back at 13-1 and Desert Party at 15-1.

It was a hectic day for me, as I had two flight delays en route back to Dallas, barely arriving in time for our Derby party, which I was greeted with tornados and repeated interruptions of Derby coverage on the local NBC affiliate. And of course, the TwinSpires website was backlogged prior to The Derby to prevent future bets (saved me more $$). But I will close my weary eyes soon in hibernation mode with Rachel Alexandra's 20+ length romp as my last sight. So thanks for all your emails/text messages/phone calls, but just don't expect any future replies until Monday morning. It was a great Derby 135 friends... just THIS CLOSE from a $42,000 trifecta! Ahh, but that's what keeps us coming back for more, just like sinking that 20 foot putt on the 18th green to salvage a 95, but you're right back on the tee box the next weekend!

Until the Preakness Stakes in two weeks, may all your tickets be worthy of cashing. Come see me at Lone Star track in Dallas this summer!

Peace out.
Eric

Kentucky Derby 135 Week - Post Positions

The post position draw occured late Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs in a radical departure from recent years. Rather than having a "made for tv" event with emcee, interviews, etc., the draw occured in obscurity... a sign that interest in thoroughbred racing continues deteriorating. Furthermore, for the first time in many years, Friday's Kentucky Oaks will not be broadcast via live television. This is quite a change over a few generations, when companies and factories would close down on days when horses such as Seabiscuit, Count Fleet and Citation would make a scheduled start. I guess I can't blame the average Joe (not to be confused with Joe the Plumber) for lacking interest after the fatal breakdowns of Barbaro and Eight Belles in recent years, not to mention the steroid scandal with Big Brown and the lack of a national policy on drug and safety matters. Which makes tracks such as Oaklawn Park and even Lone Star near Dallas the model for racing after increasing purse money and attendance in recent years by incorporating more promotions (casino in the case of Oaklawn) and special events to draw the casual racing fan to an afternoon of fun. Oh well, enough of my tangent, let's get to the official post positions and odds!

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stewart Elliott 30-1
2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1
4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1
7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1
12 General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1
15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1
17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
19 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1
20 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado 50-1

Not really any shockers with the draw choices, especially after considering Dutrow's bold move last year of selecting post #20 for Big Brown even though there were several spots left to prove his horse could overcome anything! Baffert made some puzzling comments that he was hoping all day to get in the 16 post, which they ended up getting. That may force Pioneer of the Nile to show a little more speed on the first turn to save some ground, but all other outside horses are long-shots.

Does anyone have an angle on the Dubai horses, Desert Party and Regal Ransom? If so, please send me comments as I'm balking on my initial thought to toss them completely due to the passive race regimen this spring. My current "fear" horse is late blooming Hold Me Back at 15-1 after his win and runner-up finish on synthetics. I would love to discount these races due to his success primarily on artificial surface -- that they WON'T be running on at Churchill Downs. But then you see I Want Revenge who made the switch easily in New York from California tracks to the traditional tracks of the East. Would love to get the thoughts of my "railbird" friends!

Trivia answer: Stewart Elliott was the last jockey to win The Derby in his first attempt with Smarty Jones in 2004. After another big win in The Preakness, many thought he actually cost him the coveted Triple Crown when he moved Smarty in the Belmont Stakes through a swift 6 furlongs with more than a half mile remaining. Ultimately, he was passed in the last sixteenth of a mile by Nick Zito trained Birdstone in my only triple crown attended event to date. On Saturday, 19 year-old phenom Joe Talamo tries to duplicate this feat on the likely favorite, I Want Revenge.

Derby 135 Week - Rachel Getting Ready

Monday had no shortage of drama on the Churchill Downs racing strip. By now you have probably seen the graphic video of a tragic training accident that occurred when a three year-old colt tossed his jockey and proceeded his workout, where he slammed into an unraced 2 year-old filly (Raspberry Kiss) at approximately 40 mph. You can probably guess the result... the filly received a broken pelvis and had to be euthanized, a truly heartbreaking scene.

The accident happened just as Calvin Borel was ready to shake the reigns at Rachel Alexandra to initiate her workout. When Rachel returned to the track to complete her scheduled work, the leggy daughter of Medaglia d'Oro dropped some jaws as she blazed around the track completing 5 furlongs in :58.40 and 6 panels in 1:10.60. By contrast, several entries in The Derby also had 5 furlong tuneups for Saturday's run for the roses; Pioneer of the Nile - 1:00.87, Chocolate Candy - :59.24, Join in the Dance - 1:00.20, Take the Points - 1:00.06, Win Willy - 1:02.40 and Friesan Fire - :57.86, following Larry Jones' aggressive training script. Even though Friesan Fire was the only horse to work faster than Rachel for 5/8ths of a mile, she made up four seconds while galloping out the final furlong while well in hand under Calvin "Bo-rail".

So what do all of these times mean... after all, this isn't quarter horse racing we're talking about! As a frame of reference, some of the fastest pre-Derby works in years past produced mixed results. Trainer Larry Jones employed the same style that didn't seem to phase Eight Belles (:58.20) or Hard Spun (:57.60) in previous runner-up efforts and Smarty Jones had a bullet 5 furlongs in :58.00 before his 2004 Derby triumph. However, the tightening may have adversely affected Point Given in 2001 (:58.20) and Artax in 1998 (:58.00), which had the scribes scurrying.

Trivia Answer: War Emblem was Baffert's last Derby winner, although he took over training the colt just prior to his Illinois Derby victory. His previous "real" trainee was "the fish" Real Quiet in 1998 one year after his first score with Silver Charm.

By the end of today, we'll have the official field for The Derby with post position assignments and morning line odds. Good luck with your handicapping!

Happy Derby 135 Week

I know it's not quite Monday, but I'm kicking off the show a little early this year due to an imposing travel schedule -- more on that later.

Let me start by reporting that the Quality Road camp is still optimistic after this morning's jog around the track that produced a trace of blood from the quarter crack, but no soreness or swelling. He is still scheduled for an official workout Monday morning.

Folks, let's not kid ourselves. Kentucky Derby 135 is all about revenge. And I'm not talking about I Want Revenge, rather revenge of the sires of this year's crop to make up for past Derby's lost. Speaking of I Want Revenge, his sire - Stephen Got Even - ran a laughable 14th as the "danger horse" in the '99 Derby (Charismatic). Pioneer of the Nile's sire - Empire Maker - was the beaten favorite in '03 (Funny Cide). Another beaten favorite in '96 (won by Grindstone), Unbridled's Song sends out Dunkirk in hopes of redeeming his off-the-board finish, while Mine That Bird tries to best Birdstone's 2001 (Monarchos) 8th place finish.

On the other hand, a few horses are trying to pull off the father-son double as Win Willy hopes to follow in Monarchos'(01) shoes and Flying Private likewise of Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). Furthermore, Elusive Quality hopes to sire his second winner in Quality Road to join brother Smarty Jones (04).

Most of you know that I've never witnessed The Derby in person -- waiting to have my very own horse entered in The Derby to go in style if/when that ever may happen! But this year I have decided to at least spend a couple of days in Louisville leading up to The Derby for live blogging from the backstretch. Since I have to be in Memphis for a work trip this week, I realized Louisville wasn't that far away, so what the hell! While I'm there, I will also be able to see my favorite filly - Rachel Alexandra - go for the win in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday's card.

Here is a very helpful site to watch race replays and evaluate the talent for Saturday's big race: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/

Trivia questions can be found in the left margin... please participate since no one can tell if you are right or wrong with your response. And feedback and comments are always encouraged... Talk Derby to me!

E

Quality Road... say it ain't so!

Just eight days prior to the 135th Run for the Roses, major news hit the backstretch and personally threw a major wrench in my handicapping. Quality Road has suffered a new quarter crack on his right front hoof, although, reportedly not as severe as his last one that split on his right rear during his Florida Derby triumph. With Big Brown last year and now this horse, "quarter crack" is giving "stimulus" a push for the most quoted word(s) over the past year -- at least in my world. At worst, he'll be declared out of the race over the weekend and perhaps be mended in time for the classics to follow, or likely by Saratoga's Travers Stakes. At best, his last scheduled workout will be pushed back to Sunday or Monday, not the optimal approach in training regimen for the biggest race of his life!

If he indeed scratches in the coming days, that is a bad thing for all bettors. If you planned on tossing the son of Elusive Quality due to speed/distance concerns, now your horse will be bet down to lower odds. On the flip side, if you liked this horse (like me) and planned on keying him in the exotics, it's time to go back to the drawing board. Even if he gets in the race there will be lingering doubts that will shatter confidence at the betting windows... the VERY LAST thing you want when trying to whittle down a 20 horse field!

So - true to form - we have our first official Derby drama. There are usually one or two candidates that suffer such a fate during the final workout or days leading up to The Derby, so let's hope all else remains calm over the weekend. As always, I'll be keeping you posted and remember -- Derby trivia begins Monday!

Happy Racing.