First of all, I must say that I had a pretty crappy weekend all around. I drove to Hot Springs for a relaxing three day weekend to witness the Southwest Stakes and get my first live taste of Derby fever 2011. By late afternoon Monday, I had cashed nary a ticket ("0 for Oaklawn" as my friends put it), three of my original top 10 picks failed to threaten in their respective races, and to top it all off one of my two Derby futures bets had already been declared off the trail due to injury! Luckily, I made it back to Dallas okay and I'm ready to lick my wounds and re-group, since the next prep race could be the one that makes me forget about all these trivial concerns.
I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...
1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.
2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!
4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.
5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.
6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.
8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!
9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.
Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E
February 22, 2011
February 2, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Trail
On the heels (pun intended) of two of the greatest campaigns by a filly or mare of all-time in Rachel's 2009 and Zenyatta's 2010 season, it's time that the Derby sophomores reclaim the headlines. And there appears to be a talented enough crop to do the job in 2011 led by Uncle Mo, who has received the most amount of hype for a juvenile that I can recall since Arazi in 1992 and Favorite Trick - the Juvenile champion and overall Horse of the Year in 1997. Speaking of droughts, Lookin At Lucky broke a historic one last year when he was the only 2YO champion to repeat as 3YO champion since Spectacular Bid waaaaayyyy back in 1979!
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
November 10, 2010
Blame defeats "Queen Zen" in epic Breeders' Cup
Man o' War lost one in 21 races to a horse named Upset. Zenyatta loses one in 20 to a horse called Blame - how's that for irony?! Last Saturday I saw the greatest race I have ever witnessed. It doesn't always happen that the best horses in the race are able to be on the top of their game on that same day to duke it out to the wire, but Blame and Zenyatta were clearly superior to the rest of the field. Though the vast majority of the 72,739 folks at Churchill Downs and millions watching on ABC or online wanted Big Z to pull it out, she showed uber class by putting in her patented, Silky-Sullivan type, furious rally through the stretch after getting dirt flung up her nostrils for seven furlongs of the ten furlong race. At one point, I was even afraid Mike Smith may have to pull a "Big Brown" she was being so far distanced from the main pack.
The pace was legitimate and most horses had a fairly clean trip -- the fact that Big Z comes from so far back leads to the risk that she would either have to go extremely wide (as Mike Smith typically guides her) or have to temporarily check while waiting for position into the far turn, which happened in the Classic. While this could or could not have been the difference in this race result (Blame galloped out strongly after the wire, so we can't assume Zen would have passed him with a perfect trip), what it proved to me is how superior Zenyatta has been during her previous 19 race unbeaten streak and the heart she showed in pushing Blame to his limit. And I certainly don't "blame" Mike Smith in any way for his ride (although he stated in tears that he left her "too much to do"), as the trip could have certainly been worse than it was.
Comparing her feat to other notable streaks in recent memory, Cigar had a stalking style, which gave him the perfect trip for Jerry Bailey to dictate pace and move when he needed to stay near the rail and out of trouble. His defeat by Dare and Go was the result of a baiting pace scenario by Siphon where Bailey had him essentially on the lead when the fractions were much faster than average, thus he was susceptible and ultimately was passed in deep stretch by the other Dick Mandella entrant. Even Rachel Alexandra last year had the huge advantage in her perfect nine race campaign where she was either on the lead or just off a horse so that she had no chance to get blocked or lose momentum at any point. Although, we witnessed how this nearly backfired with an over-confident ride by Calvin Borel during the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, where she desperately held off closer Macho Again (but never again returned as the same horse). Finally, perhaps the last horse to exhibit as much aversion to running when leaving the gate was the infamous Silky Sullivan, whose name is now used to describe a horse that falls 20 - 30 lengths off the lead until the final stretch drive. His career stats from the late 1950's prove how ineffective this running style can be with only 12 wins and 1 second from 27 lifetime starts! Closers who have to swing wide around the turn or who lose momentum waiting for a hole to open truly have to be several lenghts better than the rest of the field to make up for this tactical disadvantage. And on Breeders' Cup Saturday for once, Zenyatta could not overcome this.
We're not ready to let go of the Big Z - especially now that most Americans east of the Mississippi River have seen what all the fuss is about. Mike Smith desperately wants a do-over. Californians shutter when imagining her "retiring" to Kentucky. The NTRA and racing journals have just now realized how bright Zen's star burns (and how much revenue she is bringing in with special editions, posters and hats). But most importantly, we need Big Z to come back for fans like little Megan from Bardstown. This was the first race ever attended by the 10 year-old and she was treated to one of the greatest BC Classics (if not races) of all time. Do you think Megan came to see Blame or Goldikova or Uncle Mo -- hell no!
E's letter to Zenyatta:
Dear Zen,
Do you realize how much pure, unbridled joy you have brought to so many? You have inspired so many people in all types of trying circumstances to keep fighting and to never give up with your effort on the track and your hospitable, infectious personality in the barn area. You let us all be a part of your life and share in your plethora of success. You were even gracious enough to put your training on hold for an interview with 60 minutes (even though they "only" sent Steve Kroft, when Leslie Stahl would have been a much better choice for you!). I was one of the fortunate fans who lived near Oaklawn Park and was able to see your strut, feel your inspiration and be touched by your greatness a few times - most are not so lucky. There's a reason the only names being referenced to you this week were horse of the last decade Cigar and the legendary Secretariat. Come back and race longer to let your legacy continue to grow and shine your light as an inspiration to so many others.
I visited Cigar on Friday before the Breeders' Cup at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington and he is totally bored. Don't get me wrong, Cathy and the volunteers do a fabulous job taking care of him and ensuring his quality of life, but he's still trapped inside a fenced stall just slightly larger than the size of my office for the majority of his day - and I know that I feel caged! And contrary to popular belief based on your size, you are - in fact - a woman, so your breeding value for one season can't be more than what you will certainly earn on the race track, with or without appearance fees. And now that you have an ever-so-small blemish on your record of perfection, you have no more pressure on future races - just run for fun! So what I'm trying to say Zenyatta is that we all love you - can't you please stay and play a little longer?
Your Admiring Friend,
E
The pace was legitimate and most horses had a fairly clean trip -- the fact that Big Z comes from so far back leads to the risk that she would either have to go extremely wide (as Mike Smith typically guides her) or have to temporarily check while waiting for position into the far turn, which happened in the Classic. While this could or could not have been the difference in this race result (Blame galloped out strongly after the wire, so we can't assume Zen would have passed him with a perfect trip), what it proved to me is how superior Zenyatta has been during her previous 19 race unbeaten streak and the heart she showed in pushing Blame to his limit. And I certainly don't "blame" Mike Smith in any way for his ride (although he stated in tears that he left her "too much to do"), as the trip could have certainly been worse than it was.
Comparing her feat to other notable streaks in recent memory, Cigar had a stalking style, which gave him the perfect trip for Jerry Bailey to dictate pace and move when he needed to stay near the rail and out of trouble. His defeat by Dare and Go was the result of a baiting pace scenario by Siphon where Bailey had him essentially on the lead when the fractions were much faster than average, thus he was susceptible and ultimately was passed in deep stretch by the other Dick Mandella entrant. Even Rachel Alexandra last year had the huge advantage in her perfect nine race campaign where she was either on the lead or just off a horse so that she had no chance to get blocked or lose momentum at any point. Although, we witnessed how this nearly backfired with an over-confident ride by Calvin Borel during the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, where she desperately held off closer Macho Again (but never again returned as the same horse). Finally, perhaps the last horse to exhibit as much aversion to running when leaving the gate was the infamous Silky Sullivan, whose name is now used to describe a horse that falls 20 - 30 lengths off the lead until the final stretch drive. His career stats from the late 1950's prove how ineffective this running style can be with only 12 wins and 1 second from 27 lifetime starts! Closers who have to swing wide around the turn or who lose momentum waiting for a hole to open truly have to be several lenghts better than the rest of the field to make up for this tactical disadvantage. And on Breeders' Cup Saturday for once, Zenyatta could not overcome this.
We're not ready to let go of the Big Z - especially now that most Americans east of the Mississippi River have seen what all the fuss is about. Mike Smith desperately wants a do-over. Californians shutter when imagining her "retiring" to Kentucky. The NTRA and racing journals have just now realized how bright Zen's star burns (and how much revenue she is bringing in with special editions, posters and hats). But most importantly, we need Big Z to come back for fans like little Megan from Bardstown. This was the first race ever attended by the 10 year-old and she was treated to one of the greatest BC Classics (if not races) of all time. Do you think Megan came to see Blame or Goldikova or Uncle Mo -- hell no!
E's letter to Zenyatta:
Dear Zen,
Do you realize how much pure, unbridled joy you have brought to so many? You have inspired so many people in all types of trying circumstances to keep fighting and to never give up with your effort on the track and your hospitable, infectious personality in the barn area. You let us all be a part of your life and share in your plethora of success. You were even gracious enough to put your training on hold for an interview with 60 minutes (even though they "only" sent Steve Kroft, when Leslie Stahl would have been a much better choice for you!). I was one of the fortunate fans who lived near Oaklawn Park and was able to see your strut, feel your inspiration and be touched by your greatness a few times - most are not so lucky. There's a reason the only names being referenced to you this week were horse of the last decade Cigar and the legendary Secretariat. Come back and race longer to let your legacy continue to grow and shine your light as an inspiration to so many others.
I visited Cigar on Friday before the Breeders' Cup at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington and he is totally bored. Don't get me wrong, Cathy and the volunteers do a fabulous job taking care of him and ensuring his quality of life, but he's still trapped inside a fenced stall just slightly larger than the size of my office for the majority of his day - and I know that I feel caged! And contrary to popular belief based on your size, you are - in fact - a woman, so your breeding value for one season can't be more than what you will certainly earn on the race track, with or without appearance fees. And now that you have an ever-so-small blemish on your record of perfection, you have no more pressure on future races - just run for fun! So what I'm trying to say Zenyatta is that we all love you - can't you please stay and play a little longer?
Your Admiring Friend,
E
November 6, 2010
Breeders Cup preview
Happy Breeders Cup 2010 to all! This could be a truly historic day at the most historic track in the US, particularly for Breeders Cup races. The hype in Louisville remains whether Queen Zen can duplicate her success from last year on a dirt track. Surprisingly, there are more doubters than believers in the ranks of media. But Mike Smith has tipped us off with comments that he expects something truly special - perhaps he will let the big mare crush her male opponents and critics everywhere under the lights of the famed twin spires.
Here's a few spot plays for those interested:
Juvenile Turf - Soldat over Banned, Humble and Hungry.
Turf Sprint - Rose Catherine with Chamberlain Bridge, Grand Adventure.
Juvenile- Boys at Tosconova over Jaycito, Biondetti.
Dirt Mile - Here Comes Ben over Tizway, Thiskyhasnolimit.
Turf - Winchester and Al Khali.
Classic - Zenyatta clear of the field, watch close from Fly Down!
Here's a few spot plays for those interested:
Juvenile Turf - Soldat over Banned, Humble and Hungry.
Turf Sprint - Rose Catherine with Chamberlain Bridge, Grand Adventure.
Juvenile- Boys at Tosconova over Jaycito, Biondetti.
Dirt Mile - Here Comes Ben over Tizway, Thiskyhasnolimit.
Turf - Winchester and Al Khali.
Classic - Zenyatta clear of the field, watch close from Fly Down!
September 28, 2010
SSSSHHHHH… A moment of silence for 1998 Kentucky Derby champ Real Quiet
The Bob Baffert trainee know as “The Fish” was killed in a freak stall accident on September 27th at age 15. While Baffert was already on the racing map in 1998 with his previous year’s Derby victor – Silver Charm, repeating the task the very next season with long-time pal Mike Pegram put a new, brash style of ownership squarely in the forefront of American thoroughbred racing. In the winner’s circle of hallowed Churchill Downs holding The Derby trophy, Pegram tipsily exclaimed, “We’re gonna be drinkin’ some beer tonight… Budweiser beer!” Mike was referring to the Anheuser-Busch distributorship owned by Robert Lewis, fellow owner to Bob Baffert with Silver Charm. After all, Pegram was the same owner who had recently named a top-priced filly sales purchase and future Eclipse Champion “Silverbulletday” after his preferred lager of choice – Coors Light.
The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.
During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.
Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.
Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.
The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.
During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.
Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.
Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.
August 31, 2010
Afleet Express noses out Fly Down and Zito in Midsummer Derby
Editor's note: Sorry - thought I had posted this weeks ago!
The Travers Stakes at Saratoga has a lofty reputation for displaying the top 3 year-0lds of the "second half" of the racing season, which is rarely the same group of sophomores considering the brutal grind of the spring Derby fever prep races. With the narrowest of victories, Afleet Express essentially locked up divisional honors for a colt not even in the race, Lookin At Lucky. The victory also catapulted his sire, Afleet Alex, to the head of the second crop sires list and now seems well on his way to be a major influence in classic bloodlines, ala Birdstone.
Perhaps if Fly Down could have gotten his nose to the wire first he could have still made a case for an Eclipse Award with a good showing in a Breeders' Cup race, considering his previous Belmont runner-up status. But Baffert has yet again proven his skills in this division. Three year-olds are especially judged by the Triple Crown series and with Super Saver and Ice Box's poor showing in the Travers, Lucky is essentially the last horse standing. But First Dude deserves another mention for yet another in the money finish with his show spot. The 3 year-old bay colt now has hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes (all grade I), and has earned more than $600,000 despite only a maiden victory in ten career starts!
Moving on to the Zenyatta vs. Rachel debate (as if there was any remaining), Miss Zen picked up her 18th consecutive victory without a defeat in early August at seaside Del Mar in the Grade I Clement Hirsch Stakes. Mike Smith rode Zen with extreme confidence as she was fanned wide on the turn and reached the front much earlier in the race than usual, but held on by her mammoth neck. She will likely get one penultimate start in California before the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic.
On the other coast, Rachel Alexandra lost her third race of 2010 while racing at 10 furlongs for the first time in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at historic Saratoga -- the site of her titillating victory in last summer's Woodward Stakes. After flashing her customary early speed to put away Life At Ten by the quarter pole, Rachel could not withstand the persistent stretch run of, well... Persistently - the $45 winner. This result confirms my belief that Rachel is most effective between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, which may now leave the Ladies Classic race as the only option for owner and trainer for Breeders' Cup consideration (assuming she shows up at all to Churchill Downs!).
The Travers Stakes at Saratoga has a lofty reputation for displaying the top 3 year-0lds of the "second half" of the racing season, which is rarely the same group of sophomores considering the brutal grind of the spring Derby fever prep races. With the narrowest of victories, Afleet Express essentially locked up divisional honors for a colt not even in the race, Lookin At Lucky. The victory also catapulted his sire, Afleet Alex, to the head of the second crop sires list and now seems well on his way to be a major influence in classic bloodlines, ala Birdstone.
Perhaps if Fly Down could have gotten his nose to the wire first he could have still made a case for an Eclipse Award with a good showing in a Breeders' Cup race, considering his previous Belmont runner-up status. But Baffert has yet again proven his skills in this division. Three year-olds are especially judged by the Triple Crown series and with Super Saver and Ice Box's poor showing in the Travers, Lucky is essentially the last horse standing. But First Dude deserves another mention for yet another in the money finish with his show spot. The 3 year-old bay colt now has hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes (all grade I), and has earned more than $600,000 despite only a maiden victory in ten career starts!
Moving on to the Zenyatta vs. Rachel debate (as if there was any remaining), Miss Zen picked up her 18th consecutive victory without a defeat in early August at seaside Del Mar in the Grade I Clement Hirsch Stakes. Mike Smith rode Zen with extreme confidence as she was fanned wide on the turn and reached the front much earlier in the race than usual, but held on by her mammoth neck. She will likely get one penultimate start in California before the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic.
On the other coast, Rachel Alexandra lost her third race of 2010 while racing at 10 furlongs for the first time in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at historic Saratoga -- the site of her titillating victory in last summer's Woodward Stakes. After flashing her customary early speed to put away Life At Ten by the quarter pole, Rachel could not withstand the persistent stretch run of, well... Persistently - the $45 winner. This result confirms my belief that Rachel is most effective between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, which may now leave the Ladies Classic race as the only option for owner and trainer for Breeders' Cup consideration (assuming she shows up at all to Churchill Downs!).
June 25, 2010
Zenyatta reaffirms her place in history with 17th victory
Great Britain had the Beatles, South Africa rejoices with their vuvuzelas and now Hollywood Park patrons (and fellow Americans) celebrate the greatness that is Zenyatta. Named after the third Police album, "Zenyatta Mondatta" - which was widely proclaimed as Sting's break-out party, the giant dark brown (although she appears black) mare with the familiar full blaze now stands alone in the record books with her 17th consecutive victory in unrestricted races, 11 having been in Grade 1 company.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert came out even though he didn't have any horses running Sunday, along with Bo Derek and composer Burt Bacharach - although there would be no rain drops falling on this day, only tears of joy. "People love the stars," Baffert said. "I haven't seen this many people since she ran the last time." Her presence at Hollywood Park, along with a promotional Zen' bobblehead giveaway, helped attract a crowd of 12,232, significantly higher than the average of 4,200 over the three previous Sundays.
Zenyatta faced legitimate opponents in the Grade I Vanity Handicap to earn this record, while being burdened with significantly more saddle weight to carry. Under the race's handicap conditions, Zenyatta carried high weight of 129 pounds — nine to 17 more than her five rivals — because of her stellar record. The highest-weighted Vanity winners prior to Zenyatta were way back in the 1960's; champion Gamely carried 131 in 1968 and Silver Spoon won with 130 in 1960. "We're carrying a lot of weight and I just wanted to get that weight moving forward," jockey Mike Smith added, "so I tried to tip out as we came off the turn and use that momentum to kind of slingshot me even though I was a little wide, to get her at least running."
And ran she did, past Zardana (who previously had defeated Rachel Alexandra in her comeback at the Fair Grounds) and then past a begrudging St. Trinians near the wire, a graded stakes winner who was at her peak since recently defeating last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, Life Is Sweet. With the victory Zenyatta races past Hall of Fame members Citation and Cigar for consecutive win streak, although her record is even more special since she has yet to taste defeat.
In discussing her remaining pre-Breeders' Cup schedule, trainer John Shirreffs had the following to say. "How many times do you really want to cross the country," referring to the fact that the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November is Zenyatta's long-term goal. Thus, she will likely remain in California for one or possibly two more well-placed prep races. Then we could be treated to an epic Breeders' Cup Classic as four year-old Quality Road is back on a record-breaking streak of his own and last year's media darling Rachel Alexandra looked like her old self in romping by 10 lenghts in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs last weekend. If these great horses all stay sound and go postward in November that would certainly make up for the disappointing 2010 Triple Crown season. Stay tuned!
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert came out even though he didn't have any horses running Sunday, along with Bo Derek and composer Burt Bacharach - although there would be no rain drops falling on this day, only tears of joy. "People love the stars," Baffert said. "I haven't seen this many people since she ran the last time." Her presence at Hollywood Park, along with a promotional Zen' bobblehead giveaway, helped attract a crowd of 12,232, significantly higher than the average of 4,200 over the three previous Sundays.
Zenyatta faced legitimate opponents in the Grade I Vanity Handicap to earn this record, while being burdened with significantly more saddle weight to carry. Under the race's handicap conditions, Zenyatta carried high weight of 129 pounds — nine to 17 more than her five rivals — because of her stellar record. The highest-weighted Vanity winners prior to Zenyatta were way back in the 1960's; champion Gamely carried 131 in 1968 and Silver Spoon won with 130 in 1960. "We're carrying a lot of weight and I just wanted to get that weight moving forward," jockey Mike Smith added, "so I tried to tip out as we came off the turn and use that momentum to kind of slingshot me even though I was a little wide, to get her at least running."
And ran she did, past Zardana (who previously had defeated Rachel Alexandra in her comeback at the Fair Grounds) and then past a begrudging St. Trinians near the wire, a graded stakes winner who was at her peak since recently defeating last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, Life Is Sweet. With the victory Zenyatta races past Hall of Fame members Citation and Cigar for consecutive win streak, although her record is even more special since she has yet to taste defeat.
In discussing her remaining pre-Breeders' Cup schedule, trainer John Shirreffs had the following to say. "How many times do you really want to cross the country," referring to the fact that the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November is Zenyatta's long-term goal. Thus, she will likely remain in California for one or possibly two more well-placed prep races. Then we could be treated to an epic Breeders' Cup Classic as four year-old Quality Road is back on a record-breaking streak of his own and last year's media darling Rachel Alexandra looked like her old self in romping by 10 lenghts in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs last weekend. If these great horses all stay sound and go postward in November that would certainly make up for the disappointing 2010 Triple Crown season. Stay tuned!
June 9, 2010
Personal Ensign belated tribute
Personal Ensign died of natural causes on April 8th at age 26 at historic Claiborne Farm. The Phipps' family homebred daughter of Private Account out of the Hoist the Flag mare Grecian Banner will always be remembered as the Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion who went out on top after her 13th thrilling victory from as many starts, quite simply perfection. Thus, Personal Ensign is regarded as one of the greatest race mares of all-time. In fact, in a poll of "Greatest female race horse ever" I started last year during Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta's summer assault on horse racing, Rachel narrowly edged out Personal Ensign (7 to 6) with Ruffian also receiving a few votes but Zenyatta getting shut out (vote was prior to Breeders' Cup). I'm interested to see how these numbers may change at the conclusion to this year's season.
Personal Ensign's first of eight grade I wins came at age two, but she then was sidelined with a fractured pastern until September of her three year-old season (thus, no spring Classic attempts). Her four year-old season in 1988 was comparable to Rachel's Horse of the Year campaign last year in that she had 7 wins -- including beating the boys (Gulch) in The Whitney Handicap. Perhaps her '88 campaign was even better when you consider she competed in and won the year-end Breeders' Cup Distaff. In that career defining race at Churchill Downs, seemingly beaten on a sloppy track, Personal Ensign roared down the center of that long stretch under Randy Romero (who coincidentally will be enshrined into the Racing Hall of Fame this August at Saratoga, thanks to P.E.!) to catch the free-running Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, by a scant nose on the line. One of Tom Durkin's greatest race calls ever (check the Youtube video and tell me you don't have goose bumps!). And I believe she also would have been the overall Horse of the Year in 1988 had the much-hyped Alysheba not gotten slighted the year before after losing to Ferdinand by a nose in the Classic.
"She was a wonderful filly who overcame injury to win 13 straight races," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "She was certainly one of my all-time favorites. She was a career maker."
In addition to perfection ON the track, her accomplishments in the breeding shed far exceeded what most great race mares are able to produce through their progeny. Her first foal - Miner's Mark (not to be confused with the Kentucky 90 proof spirit) was a grade I winner and her second foal - the Mr. Prospector colt Our Emblem - is the sire of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. My Flag, the regal daughter of Easy Goer and Personal Ensign, won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her daughter Storm Flag Flying reproduced that effort with a win in the 2002 running. Another Personal Ensign colt, Traditionally, was a Grade I winner in 2001 and another daughter, Title Seeker, is the dam of yet another Grade II winner, Seeking the Title. This success led to her being named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 1996.
Along with Kentucky Derby winning fillies Genuine Risk and Winning Colors (who both passed away in 2008 - see archived tributes), Personal Ensign was the last anchor of the triangle that comprised the three best fillies over the last quarter century. That is, until our current string of femme fatals. Let's continue to wish Zenyatta and Rachel all the best to see if they are up to the challenge of capping their careers with as dramatic a finish as the graceful Personal Ensign!
Personal Ensign's first of eight grade I wins came at age two, but she then was sidelined with a fractured pastern until September of her three year-old season (thus, no spring Classic attempts). Her four year-old season in 1988 was comparable to Rachel's Horse of the Year campaign last year in that she had 7 wins -- including beating the boys (Gulch) in The Whitney Handicap. Perhaps her '88 campaign was even better when you consider she competed in and won the year-end Breeders' Cup Distaff. In that career defining race at Churchill Downs, seemingly beaten on a sloppy track, Personal Ensign roared down the center of that long stretch under Randy Romero (who coincidentally will be enshrined into the Racing Hall of Fame this August at Saratoga, thanks to P.E.!) to catch the free-running Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, by a scant nose on the line. One of Tom Durkin's greatest race calls ever (check the Youtube video and tell me you don't have goose bumps!). And I believe she also would have been the overall Horse of the Year in 1988 had the much-hyped Alysheba not gotten slighted the year before after losing to Ferdinand by a nose in the Classic.
"She was a wonderful filly who overcame injury to win 13 straight races," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "She was certainly one of my all-time favorites. She was a career maker."
In addition to perfection ON the track, her accomplishments in the breeding shed far exceeded what most great race mares are able to produce through their progeny. Her first foal - Miner's Mark (not to be confused with the Kentucky 90 proof spirit) was a grade I winner and her second foal - the Mr. Prospector colt Our Emblem - is the sire of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. My Flag, the regal daughter of Easy Goer and Personal Ensign, won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her daughter Storm Flag Flying reproduced that effort with a win in the 2002 running. Another Personal Ensign colt, Traditionally, was a Grade I winner in 2001 and another daughter, Title Seeker, is the dam of yet another Grade II winner, Seeking the Title. This success led to her being named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 1996.
Along with Kentucky Derby winning fillies Genuine Risk and Winning Colors (who both passed away in 2008 - see archived tributes), Personal Ensign was the last anchor of the triangle that comprised the three best fillies over the last quarter century. That is, until our current string of femme fatals. Let's continue to wish Zenyatta and Rachel all the best to see if they are up to the challenge of capping their careers with as dramatic a finish as the graceful Personal Ensign!
June 8, 2010
Belmont wrap and current 3 year-old picture
After Drosselmeyer captured the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes on Saturday, the Triple Crown Trail has finally ended with a resounding THUD (or should I say Dud!). Although always know for having potential with his breeding (I even had Drossel as high as #6 in my earliest Polls), it's clear to me that this unique distance was the only reason Drosselmeyer was able to notch this Grade I victory. He was soundly defeated by Belmont runner up Fly Down by six lengths in their local prep (Dwyer Stakes) for the Belmont -- which was run in a pedestrian 2:31.57. This year's Belmont time came in a full FOUR seconds slower than last years (granted, last year's winner Summer Bird was a better than average winner).
First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.
In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.
Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!
Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.
So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E
First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.
In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.
Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!
Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.
So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E
Lookin At Lucky finally gets his break at Pimlico
What an interesting trip to the 2010 Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. Wanting to witness a Preakness Stakes in person at Pimlico Race Course before the Maryland Jockey Club likely moves the race to Laurel Park (due to financial woes as well as the decrepit state of the second oldest racing venue in these United States), my wife and I cheerily set out to the resting place of Edgar Allan Poe. I knew the trip was off to a good start when we came across Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey at the DFW airport as we both waited out extended weather delays. Jerry seemed to appreciate getting to "talk shop" about the next day's Preakness Stakes. Coincidentally, Jerry was flying back from visiting his father in El Paso and NOT heading northeast to Baltimore, as we were. And because of this exchange, I'll never beat myself up over my lousy picks again!
First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!
What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.
Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.
It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.
Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!
First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!
What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.
Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.
It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.
Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!
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