I'll Have Another... Triple Crown

As a child of the eighties, I grew up amidst the longest drought on record between Triple Crown winners but never waned in my passion for thoroughbred racing. Thanks in large part to living within an hour's drive to historic Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas and having a father involved in a racing partnership with several horses to keep me interested.

Also being a pre-generation x'er, I grew up listening to bands such as Tesla, whose song "Signs" keeps coming to my mind in thinking about this Saturday's Belmont Stakes. (Although, I must point out that the song was originally cut in 1970 by Five Man Electrical Band and written by Les Emmerson, but I digress.)

Original lyrics follows..

Signs, signs, everywhere there's signs
Blocking up the scenery, breaking my mind
Do this, don't do that, can't you read the sign?

Oh but say now, "Mister, can't you read?
You got to have a shirt and tie to get a seat
You can't watch, no you can't eat
You ain't supposed to be here"
Why would I think this song applies to I'll Have Another and his attempt at racing immortality?
Consider these "signs"...

1) There have been 11 Triple Crown winners to date but also 11 horses have failed in their final attempt since Affirmed last completed the hat trick back in 1978.  So it was very fitting today when IHA drew post #11.

2) Just as our racing community was expecting a Triple Crown winner to be the salvation of a sport in such need of a hero after the drugs, declining soundness and welfare of the horse, and jurisdictional infighting over casinos, trainer Doug O'Neil was convicted of a repeat drug violation in 2010 from California the week prior to his horse's date with destiny. And after Rick Dutrow's numerous racing violations exposed prior to Big Brown's shocking DNF in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, many out there will be rooting against this horse come Saturday.  Casual observers may also assume this was a "fixed" horse, regardless of the extensive security and quarantine to ensure that no starters will be tampered with for 72 hours prior to the race.

3) In the "You ain't supposed to be here" category, the scant $11,000 IHA sold for as a yearling and the $35,000 he was flipped for ("pinhooked" in racing parlance) as a two year-old in training is supposed to get you a solid claimer or perhaps even an allowance caliber horse if you're lucky. In no circumstance should this amount lead to a Triple Crown winner who's syndicated value could easily reach $50 million.  Heck, even "the Slew" (TC winner in 1977) sold for more than that at $17,500 thirty-five years ago and he was known as one of the greatest bargains of all time. With inflation of the thoroughbred market, this amount would be closer to 100K in today's dollars, not 10% of that amount. Had haughty sire Bernardini produced such a foal to sweep the Triple Crown we would think it foreseeable as well as acceptable.  But for the winner's sire to be so far down the lineage (a great-grandson) of Mr. Prospector who only registered one Grade I victory in his racing career and have a girly name like Flower Alley?  Really... c'mon!!

4) Consider all the similarities between I'll Have Another and 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Smarty Jones - who was also thought to be a shoe-in leading into the Test of Champions. Both horses descend from the Mr. Prospector male family and have a stalking style of running, suited nicely for the typical Belmont Stakes. Both were unbeaten in their three year-old campaign but still didn't get the respect they probably deserved heading into Kentucky (although Smarty did go off favored by post-time). Both had strong regional affiliations and support - with Smarty it was his cult following from Philly Park and Oaklawn Park and with IHA it's the west coast pride of team O'Neil/Reddam who are unabashed Californians. Both horses wrangled with high quality speedballs in the Derby-Preakness (Lion Heart and Bodemeister, respectively) who bowed out for the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes. Both had an old Derby foe who sat out the Preakness while waiting for them in the Belmont Stakes. For Smarty Jones that foe was Birdstone and with IHA it's both Dullahan and Union Rags (he and Birdstone both were precocious juveniles winning the Champagne Stakes). And the final yet perhaps most relevant similarity, both have jockeys who were untested in classic races but put in superb rides the first two legs heading into Big Sandy. I was present in Elmont, NY for Stewart Elliott's ride aboard Smarty and I still believe that he got the horse beat by moving too soon on that day. Within a few days we will know if the happy-go-lucky Mario Gutierrez will still be grinning and tearing up with relief or if those tears turn to sorrow.

5) Finally, how ironic is it that England's Queen Elizabeth (a huge thoroughbred racing fan and owner who attended the Epsom Derby just this weekend) is celebrating her 60 years under the "Crown" in the same week American racing has their most important moment in nearly 40 years?

"And the sign says, you gotta have a membership card to get inside."  That is exactly what the eleven preceding members of the Triple Crown fraternity are sorting out right about now. Will I'll Have Another hear his name announced as the white smoke billows out of Belmont Park's grandstand around 5:35 central time on Saturday or will the hopes and dreams for #12 go down in flames at the hooves of Dullahan or Union Rags?  It all depends on how you interpret the signs.

Kentucky Derby - Preakness Stakes wrap

Wow, what a great two-thirds completion to racing's famed Triple Crown series of spring classics we have seen!  First of all, the Derby was run pretty much true to form with the stalker-type horse getting the best trip pulling away late (I'll Have Another). It really shocked me how smooth of a trip the young Mario Gutierrez guided him around from the #19 post being only three wide on the first turn. But going into the Preakness I was still convinced that Bodemeister was the best horse in the race -- "not no more." After carving out very sensible fractions while only slightly pressured by Creative Cause, Bode held tough in the stretch but was simply passed by a better horse at these classic distances. It only looks better for IHA from here, as his breeding and dosage screams 12 furlongs of the Belmont distance more than any other foe likely to tackle him that day. But the Belmont Stakes isn't always won by the most stamina laden horse, rather they are often lost by inexperienced jockeys (more on that in a future post).

Recapping my annual Derby Top 10 listing, I must say that I probably had one of my best years ever across the board. Sure, I added Bodemeister at the 11th hour, but had faith that he would not be the one hit wonder (ala Bellamy Road) that so many "experts" predicted.  So even though I failed to capture the Derby with my top selection (Bode), my top five spots going into the Derby (see below) swept the top five placings in the KY Derby (not in exact order) and top three in the Preakness. Now show me another handicapper who was on record doing this and I'll buy YOU another!  Having said that, I got a little cute with my key positions in my trifecta and superfecta tickets and managed only a couple of small backup winnings. And while I hit the Preakness stone-cold, it's hard to brag about a whopping $70 trifecta at any level.  But my theme was right on all year with the best of the bunch coming from California, as evidenced by the top 3 finishers from Saturday's Preakness. I'm not quite ready to break down the Belmont race that is still shaping up, but let's just say I hope Senor Gutierrez is intently watching video of the last 12 failed Triple Crown attempts, particularly 1998 and 2004.

1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.

2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.

3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.

4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.

5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.

Belmont Favorite???

The betting odds are sure to be tight when it comes to the “big three” in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Of course, I am speaking of Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, runner-up, Nehro, and Preakness victor, Shackleford. Although, based upon the fact that only two Belmont favorites have won in the last 15 years, I don’t think any of their connections will be troubled not to be favored at post-time. Not only that, but over the last nine years we’ve seen three Belmont winners strike at over 35-1 (Da’ Tara, Birdstone, Sarava)!

Read more... http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Belmont wrap and current 3 year-old picture

After Drosselmeyer captured the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes on Saturday, the Triple Crown Trail has finally ended with a resounding THUD (or should I say Dud!). Although always know for having potential with his breeding (I even had Drossel as high as #6 in my earliest Polls), it's clear to me that this unique distance was the only reason Drosselmeyer was able to notch this Grade I victory. He was soundly defeated by Belmont runner up Fly Down by six lengths in their local prep (Dwyer Stakes) for the Belmont -- which was run in a pedestrian 2:31.57. This year's Belmont time came in a full FOUR seconds slower than last years (granted, last year's winner Summer Bird was a better than average winner).

First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.

In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.

Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!

Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.

So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E