May 3, 2014

Toss the Florida horses!

While it is true I've only had a couple of winners since I began with my official picks back in 1997 (Silver Charm), I have had much more success choosing a 10-1 range horse to toss completely from all bets (Goldencents last year, finished 17th at 8-1).  My lone miss was with Ice Box, who rallied strongly for 2nd place in the slop to Super Saver in 2010, but never threatened again in another graded stakes race.

With California Chrome being a heavy morning line favorite and clearly the best horse "on paper" and 2nd choice Hoppertunity scratching, the odds are not dispersed typical this year. IF CHROME LOSES, THIS MEANS PAYOUTS WILL BE HUGE!! So while I can't toss Danza or Wicked Strong (only other single digit odds) I will give you a pair of 15-1 horses to short, Wildcat Red and General a Rod (Florida Derby toss). Gulfstream Park has developed a worsening reputation each year for its speed-favoring track (sans Orb last year) and this pair has taken turns beating each other with very slow times aided by this bias. Wildcat Red being sired by D'wildcat is probably the least bred horse in this race to win at 10 furlongs and 'a Rod also has a similar running style as many sophomores in here with better chances to fight on for a top 4 finish (Vicar's In Trouble, California Chrome, Chitu). So short these Florida horses and use other 15, 20 and 30-1 horses on the bottom of your exotic tickets. 

Two long-shots I will be using prominently include #13 Chitu (Baffert's "other" horse) and #18 Candy Boy (hoping Gary Stevens keeps him covered up until the far turn).

Best of luck with your bets today - HAPPY DERBY DAY 2014!!!

No comments: