Wow, what a great two-thirds completion to racing's famed Triple Crown series of spring classics we have seen! First of all, the Derby was run pretty much true to form with the stalker-type horse getting the best trip pulling away late (I'll Have Another). It really shocked me how smooth of a trip the young Mario Gutierrez guided him around from the #19 post being only three wide on the first turn. But going into the Preakness I was still convinced that Bodemeister was the best horse in the race -- "not no more." After carving out very sensible fractions while only slightly pressured by Creative Cause, Bode held tough in the stretch but was simply passed by a better horse at these classic distances. It only looks better for IHA from here, as his breeding and dosage screams 12 furlongs of the Belmont distance more than any other foe likely to tackle him that day. But the Belmont Stakes isn't always won by the most stamina laden horse, rather they are often lost by inexperienced jockeys (more on that in a future post).
Recapping my annual Derby Top 10 listing, I must say that I probably had one of my best years ever across the board. Sure, I added Bodemeister at the 11th hour, but had faith that he would not be the one hit wonder (ala Bellamy Road) that so many "experts" predicted. So even though I failed to capture the Derby with my top selection (Bode), my top five spots going into the Derby (see below) swept the top five placings in the KY Derby (not in exact order) and top three in the Preakness. Now show me another handicapper who was on record doing this and I'll buy YOU another! Having said that, I got a little cute with my key positions in my trifecta and superfecta tickets and managed only a couple of small backup winnings. And while I hit the Preakness stone-cold, it's hard to brag about a whopping $70 trifecta at any level. But my theme was right on all year with the best of the bunch coming from California, as evidenced by the top 3 finishers from Saturday's Preakness. I'm not quite ready to break down the Belmont race that is still shaping up, but let's just say I hope Senor Gutierrez is intently watching video of the last 12 failed Triple Crown attempts, particularly 1998 and 2004.
1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
Showing posts with label Preakness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preakness. Show all posts
May 21, 2012
May 4, 2010
Preakness 135 Preview (and final Derby thoughts)
Let me start with a preview of Saturday's Preakness Stakes since I'm giving myself a trip to Baltimore as my own birthday present (I was born on the day of the first Kentucky Derby ever run - May 17 - won by Aristides in 1875). I 've never witnessed The Preakness Stakes and with the uncertainty regarding the bankruptcy of the Magna-owned Pimlico Racecourse, I'm worried that I may not get many more chances, at least in its current structure. After a furious work schedule this week, I'm finally home and getting back to priority numero uno... redeeming myself from those piss-poor Derby picks!
We have only five returners from Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Several of the seven new shooters intrigue me, as horses such as Aikenite, Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist were all briefly listed on my Top 10 Derby list. Although, I'm not sure any of them have the talent to take home the Woodlawn Vase come Saturday. One horse that interested me in the final days leading up to The Derby - Paddy O'Prado - overcame a rough trip in The Derby to just get caught by Ice Box for 2nd place. My initial reaction to Desormeaux's poor ride in the final yards was also covered by beat writers, who likewise questioned "Squeaky's" ride. Rather than replacing him, trainer Dale Romans decided to keep him on the mount knowing that Kent will try extra special to prove his critics wrong by winning the Preakness. He is certainly a capable horse and his inherent speed should give him even more of an edge than Super Saver, who breaks to Paddy's inside by two stalls in post 8. Kent relishes the spoiler role and has a good position to sit just off Super Saver's flank, pushing him into a quicker pace and wearing him down in the stretch.
And if they do go quick up front, look for the California bred Caracortado to be moving best in the stretch. His upset could lead to a rare feat in Triple Crown racing by giving Maria's Mon the distinction of siring a Derby winner and being the broodmare sire of the Preakness winner in the same year. It's too bad this stallion passed away at a fairly young age and the owners won't be able to capitalize on Derby inflated stud fees, ala Birdstone from last year's three year-old crop. While I expect both Lookin At Lucky and Super Saver to run well, there's no use taking a short-priced horse in what is clearly an average group of sophomores.
I've had to answer my own critics regarding my faulty pace prediction in The Derby, but I'm convinced something weird was going on with that wet-sealed track after watching the replay a few more times. I've never seen front-runners stop as severely as Conveyance and Sidney's Candy "spit the bit" and fairly early into the turn, at that. These two horses are the reason Lookin At Lucky, Paddy and Ice Box had to check multiple times in the stretch as they were avoiding the horse's rapid retreats. Perhaps the worst betting strategy, however, was that of playing the "slop" angle, even though most of these young colts (and filly) had yet to even test an off track. Consider the comments by veteran turf writer, Steve Haskin, in his blog @ http://www.bloodhorse.com/: "Stately Victor, who, based on his pedigree, could actually improve off his dominating victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on Polytrack. If there is a better bred horse for the slop, we haven’t seen him. His sire, Ghostzapper , earned a spectacular 128 Beyer figure in the slop at Monmouth, winning the Iselin Handicap (gr. III) by 10 3/4 lengths. Ghostzapper’s sire, Awesome Again , was two-for-two in the slop, winning the Jim Dandy (gr. II) by three lengths and a Churchill Downs allowance race by seven lengths."
Yes, Super Saver had won on the slop as a 2YO (which he was supposed to at odds-on), but Paddy O'Prado finished 7th last year in his only run over a wet track, yet he appeared to relish the spatter. And while I'm diverting blame, let me add the NBC telecast to the list. How many times could you possibly show the "Shemp" looking schmuck with the briefcase? Yes, I know he bet his $100,000 on Super Saver and won nearly a million bucks due to this, but I would have preferred a live shot of the WinStar Farm owners (remember ABC's emotional exchange between Frances Genter and Carl Nafzger when Unbridled won the roses in 1990?) or Todd Pletcher as he watched the finish and not when he was walking alone through the paddock. At least they let it roll for the full Donna Barton-Brothers and Calvin Borel exchange on horseback. Calvin, maybe you will win the Triple Crown this year, but come Saturday I'll be rooting for a Paddy-Caracortado exacta. Erin go Bragh!
May 19, 2009
Rachel Getting... Praised
Move over Zenyatta... Rachel Alexandra has stolen your thunder as queen of the backstretch. As Zenyatta's connections scratched her from the Louisville Distaff on May 1st because of an off-track, Rachel went to the post a few races later and turned in a smashing performance that has since brought additional comparisons to Secretariat's historic 31 length Belmont victory. And it's remarkable how Rachel was able to back up that stupefying effort with her dominant pace-setting score in The Preakness Stakes, holding proven closers in Derby winner Mine That Bird and third-place finisher Musket Man in check.
To gauge Rachel's winning time of 1:55.08, consider that the last time a "speed horse" was victorious in the Preakness was 2002, when War Emblem clocked in at 1:56.36. As race times tend to change over the years based on nuances with the particular track, comparing these times to Big Brown's smashing win just last year in 1:54.80 while getting a perfect stalking trip underscores the quality of the race produced by Rachel. Especially after having to start from outside post 13 - that had never before produced a Preakness winner - and also lunging outward at the break.
Enough about the terrific race that we have come to expect from Rachel, the question is where does she go from here? Even though Mine That Bird was reeling her in at the finish line, pace still makes the race and no way would Calvin Borel let her go that fast in the mile and one-half distance of The Belmont Stakes. But a filly has already beaten the boys in the Belmont -- as recently as 2007 when Rags to Riches held off the mighty Curlin of all horses! Who's talking about Rags to Riches now, or even a month after her historic win for that matter? The fact is that another victory against these same horses doesn't really change anything, while a loss... now that's another story entirely. "Old Mo" (aka momentum) is known to change jerseys in a hurry and the last thing racing needs right now is Rachel relegated to the back pages of the magazines, papers, blogs, etc. Just for the record, with Rachel's bloodlines of Sadler's Wells and Damascus on her sire line and Mr. Prospector and Stop the Music on her dam side, she is as well bred for the distance of the Belmont as anyone else in the potential field, including Mine That Bird!
It sounds as if Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen are keenly aware of this by commenting that they are in the driver's seat for Horse of the Year honors. After the impressive victories Rachel already has under her belt, they can carefully pick and choose another 3-4 races with the ultimate goal being the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita and an expected epic battle with the aforementioned Zenyatta, who is not only undefeated in her lifetime but who at 17 hands tall can actually look Rachel in the eye. Who wins that stare down is yet to be determined.
To gauge Rachel's winning time of 1:55.08, consider that the last time a "speed horse" was victorious in the Preakness was 2002, when War Emblem clocked in at 1:56.36. As race times tend to change over the years based on nuances with the particular track, comparing these times to Big Brown's smashing win just last year in 1:54.80 while getting a perfect stalking trip underscores the quality of the race produced by Rachel. Especially after having to start from outside post 13 - that had never before produced a Preakness winner - and also lunging outward at the break.
Enough about the terrific race that we have come to expect from Rachel, the question is where does she go from here? Even though Mine That Bird was reeling her in at the finish line, pace still makes the race and no way would Calvin Borel let her go that fast in the mile and one-half distance of The Belmont Stakes. But a filly has already beaten the boys in the Belmont -- as recently as 2007 when Rags to Riches held off the mighty Curlin of all horses! Who's talking about Rags to Riches now, or even a month after her historic win for that matter? The fact is that another victory against these same horses doesn't really change anything, while a loss... now that's another story entirely. "Old Mo" (aka momentum) is known to change jerseys in a hurry and the last thing racing needs right now is Rachel relegated to the back pages of the magazines, papers, blogs, etc. Just for the record, with Rachel's bloodlines of Sadler's Wells and Damascus on her sire line and Mr. Prospector and Stop the Music on her dam side, she is as well bred for the distance of the Belmont as anyone else in the potential field, including Mine That Bird!
It sounds as if Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen are keenly aware of this by commenting that they are in the driver's seat for Horse of the Year honors. After the impressive victories Rachel already has under her belt, they can carefully pick and choose another 3-4 races with the ultimate goal being the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita and an expected epic battle with the aforementioned Zenyatta, who is not only undefeated in her lifetime but who at 17 hands tall can actually look Rachel in the eye. Who wins that stare down is yet to be determined.
May 12, 2009
Preakness Preview - Lucky #13 for Rachel?
Talk about some drama! We've had plenty of it the last few days in the thoroughbred racing community, with Mine That Bird's owner plotting with Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile's owner to deny Rachel Alexandra the chance at proving herself against the boys by filling the entry box with other nominated colts. The scandal even led to heiress MaryLou Whitney, who owns the sire of Mine That Bird, Birdstone. As soon as the media ran with the alleged quotes, Allen and Zayat were criticized on all fronts leading to a major retreat, while Whitney claimed she never spoke of any such coup - which has since held true.
Now on to the race itself. In many ways I feel this year's second jewel of the prized Triple Crown is a "do over" of The Derby, with Rachel getting her crack against the colts and a smaller field which should eliminate SOME of the bad starts and rough trips many of these same horses experienced in The Derby. After all, last year only one colt beaten in The Derby - Gayego - dared challenge Big Brown on two weeks rest and he finished next to last! This year we have not only the top four finishers in Louisville, but also the beaten favorite and two other also-rans.
Along those lines, I am going to give Friesan Fire a chance to redeem his "beaten chalk" status. I backed off him leading up to The Derby due to an expected unfavorable pace scenario, yet he was totally wiped out leaving the gate and never ran a lick. I am hoping for a Louis Quatorze-esque rebound -- that Nick Zito charge who ran an awful 16th in the 1996 Kentucky Derby only to win the Preakness Stakes in a stakes record tying performance! Larry Jones has brought his son of A.P. Indy to Pimlico Race Course just north of Baltimore to get plenty of action over this quirky oval with tight turns -- similar to that of Fair Grounds track in New Orleans, where Friesan swept the spring three year-old series in dominant fashion. For these reasons, I'll be thrilled with 8-1 or so odds come Saturday. If you're looking for more of a long-shot, I see no reason to change my stance on the honest Musket Man, although General Quarters will present a much bigger price if you can dismiss his troubled trip while splitting the field. I would expect Pioneerof the Nile to run another good stalking race, but now that his owner is the "bad guy", I'll be hoping for a flop.
Does this mean I'm betting against my girl, Rachel? Not necessarily... I'll certainly include her in multiple tickets. I just think the public will bet the farm on the filly, especially when the Pimlico odds-maker has set Rachel as the 8-5 morning line favorite. And the extra ground from the 13 post position is a lot to ask from a horse who was expected to get a month break, but now will be facing a hungry crop of sophomores after a 20+ length smashing win. Let's hope that Kentucky Oaks effort was as easy on her as it appeared or she may finally come up a short horse. For those of you playing the race, good luck sirs! It should be exciting regardless of the outcome.
Now on to the race itself. In many ways I feel this year's second jewel of the prized Triple Crown is a "do over" of The Derby, with Rachel getting her crack against the colts and a smaller field which should eliminate SOME of the bad starts and rough trips many of these same horses experienced in The Derby. After all, last year only one colt beaten in The Derby - Gayego - dared challenge Big Brown on two weeks rest and he finished next to last! This year we have not only the top four finishers in Louisville, but also the beaten favorite and two other also-rans.
Along those lines, I am going to give Friesan Fire a chance to redeem his "beaten chalk" status. I backed off him leading up to The Derby due to an expected unfavorable pace scenario, yet he was totally wiped out leaving the gate and never ran a lick. I am hoping for a Louis Quatorze-esque rebound -- that Nick Zito charge who ran an awful 16th in the 1996 Kentucky Derby only to win the Preakness Stakes in a stakes record tying performance! Larry Jones has brought his son of A.P. Indy to Pimlico Race Course just north of Baltimore to get plenty of action over this quirky oval with tight turns -- similar to that of Fair Grounds track in New Orleans, where Friesan swept the spring three year-old series in dominant fashion. For these reasons, I'll be thrilled with 8-1 or so odds come Saturday. If you're looking for more of a long-shot, I see no reason to change my stance on the honest Musket Man, although General Quarters will present a much bigger price if you can dismiss his troubled trip while splitting the field. I would expect Pioneerof the Nile to run another good stalking race, but now that his owner is the "bad guy", I'll be hoping for a flop.
Does this mean I'm betting against my girl, Rachel? Not necessarily... I'll certainly include her in multiple tickets. I just think the public will bet the farm on the filly, especially when the Pimlico odds-maker has set Rachel as the 8-5 morning line favorite. And the extra ground from the 13 post position is a lot to ask from a horse who was expected to get a month break, but now will be facing a hungry crop of sophomores after a 20+ length smashing win. Let's hope that Kentucky Oaks effort was as easy on her as it appeared or she may finally come up a short horse. For those of you playing the race, good luck sirs! It should be exciting regardless of the outcome.
May 8, 2009
Rachel Getting... SOLD!
I just had my breath knocked out after reading that phenom filly and my modern day "Cigar", Rachel Alexandra, has been sold to Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Farms (Curlin's majority owner) for an unspecified amount. My best guess would put this sum at over $5 million; anything less would be pimping this magnificent filly out like a cheap prostitute. However, Jackson showed a lot of class with previous super-horse Curlin by bringing him back for a four year-old campaign and even reluctantly running the champ in the Breeders' Cup Classic, knowing the race and surface would not best suit him.
Part of my feeling of betrayal is due to my special bond with Rachel. I thought I was her #1 fan who was entitled to approve any deals, but obviously Jackson must be to put up that kind of money. I first met Rachel when making her sophomore bow in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park over President's Day weekend. Everyone there was aware of her talent, as she paid a meager $2.80 to win and $2.20 to show. But few expected the luminary that she turned out to be. For the next three races I became a groupie... always pushing my way to the prime spot in front of Rachel's paddock stall while following Rachel to Louisiana in the slop, back to Arkansas and finally to the mecca of horse racing where her God-given talent transformed into legend before 104,867 sets of eyes. I even got a "thumbs up" when calling out to Borel as he led Rachel out of the Churchill Downs paddock (slightly viewable on Bravo's Kentucky Oaks coverage).
But what's the big deal - right - favorites are always SUPPOSED to win! I have personally witnessed three marquee races in particular that were expected to be coronations, yet turned out to be humbling experiences. Last October, Curlin entered the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita having not lost on dirt since August of 2007 and was thus sent off as the "odds-on" favorite. The synthetic surface perhaps partially to blame, nonetheless, Curlin labored through the stretch to a fourth place finish. Smarty Jones was set to become the last unbeaten Triple Crown winner since the great Seattle Slew in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. It's just that someone forgot to tell Nick Zito and Birdstone to let the 2-5 favored Smarty Jones win. And perhaps the toughest blow on me personally was the 1996 Pacific Classic, in which Dick Mandella used two horses to "tag team" the 16 consecutive race winner Cigar by baiting him into a suicidal speed duel with Siphon, while setting it up for his other closer, Dare And Go. This lone poor ride on Cigar is why Jerry Bailey can never be regarded as the best jockey of his generation.
So, clearly, I know something about heartbreak at the track. (Sidebar: spaking of heartbreaks, the reason I've never been a big Calvin Borel fan is that he cost me a winning Pick 6 ticket at Louisiana Downs when I was about 16. After hitting 5 in a row, I went into the 8th race with two horses alive for an anticipated $40,000 payoff. I had the race favorite and a mid-priced horse Borel was riding, who got blocked around the turn stuck on the rail and had to swing extremely wide, coming up a head short at the wire! Even the 5 of 6 consolation money couldn't deter my hatred of Borel. But for the record, after two decades I have dealt with my anger and now I'm very happy for his recent successes.)
Which makes Rachel's astonishing twenty and one-quarter length romp in the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks all the more impressive. And all the while Borel had a firm hold of her reigns in the stretch, customarily gawking at the crowd and rubbing Rachel's neck (which probably cost her the .20 seconds off a track record!) while waiting for competition, but yet again there was none. Now I've seen some 12 length romps in my day, but they're usually in a state-bred maiden race or a conditioned allowance race, not at the highest level of racing that is supposed to include the best of the best. By contrast, Mine That Bird's 6 1/2 length score in The Derby was the largest margin of victory since Assault won The 1946 Derby by eight lengths en route to the Triple Crown. And keep in mind that Rachel Alexandra had a shorter distance by an eighth of a mile to create that separation. Makes you wonder how much she could have won by running a mile and a half... I'd take Rachel and the "over" on Secretariat's 31 length Belmont triumph. Rachel and Secretariat in the same sentence?? You damned right!
Give 'em hell in the Preakness, Rachel, your biggest fan will be watching.
Part of my feeling of betrayal is due to my special bond with Rachel. I thought I was her #1 fan who was entitled to approve any deals, but obviously Jackson must be to put up that kind of money. I first met Rachel when making her sophomore bow in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park over President's Day weekend. Everyone there was aware of her talent, as she paid a meager $2.80 to win and $2.20 to show. But few expected the luminary that she turned out to be. For the next three races I became a groupie... always pushing my way to the prime spot in front of Rachel's paddock stall while following Rachel to Louisiana in the slop, back to Arkansas and finally to the mecca of horse racing where her God-given talent transformed into legend before 104,867 sets of eyes. I even got a "thumbs up" when calling out to Borel as he led Rachel out of the Churchill Downs paddock (slightly viewable on Bravo's Kentucky Oaks coverage).
But what's the big deal - right - favorites are always SUPPOSED to win! I have personally witnessed three marquee races in particular that were expected to be coronations, yet turned out to be humbling experiences. Last October, Curlin entered the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita having not lost on dirt since August of 2007 and was thus sent off as the "odds-on" favorite. The synthetic surface perhaps partially to blame, nonetheless, Curlin labored through the stretch to a fourth place finish. Smarty Jones was set to become the last unbeaten Triple Crown winner since the great Seattle Slew in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. It's just that someone forgot to tell Nick Zito and Birdstone to let the 2-5 favored Smarty Jones win. And perhaps the toughest blow on me personally was the 1996 Pacific Classic, in which Dick Mandella used two horses to "tag team" the 16 consecutive race winner Cigar by baiting him into a suicidal speed duel with Siphon, while setting it up for his other closer, Dare And Go. This lone poor ride on Cigar is why Jerry Bailey can never be regarded as the best jockey of his generation.
So, clearly, I know something about heartbreak at the track. (Sidebar: spaking of heartbreaks, the reason I've never been a big Calvin Borel fan is that he cost me a winning Pick 6 ticket at Louisiana Downs when I was about 16. After hitting 5 in a row, I went into the 8th race with two horses alive for an anticipated $40,000 payoff. I had the race favorite and a mid-priced horse Borel was riding, who got blocked around the turn stuck on the rail and had to swing extremely wide, coming up a head short at the wire! Even the 5 of 6 consolation money couldn't deter my hatred of Borel. But for the record, after two decades I have dealt with my anger and now I'm very happy for his recent successes.)
Which makes Rachel's astonishing twenty and one-quarter length romp in the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks all the more impressive. And all the while Borel had a firm hold of her reigns in the stretch, customarily gawking at the crowd and rubbing Rachel's neck (which probably cost her the .20 seconds off a track record!) while waiting for competition, but yet again there was none. Now I've seen some 12 length romps in my day, but they're usually in a state-bred maiden race or a conditioned allowance race, not at the highest level of racing that is supposed to include the best of the best. By contrast, Mine That Bird's 6 1/2 length score in The Derby was the largest margin of victory since Assault won The 1946 Derby by eight lengths en route to the Triple Crown. And keep in mind that Rachel Alexandra had a shorter distance by an eighth of a mile to create that separation. Makes you wonder how much she could have won by running a mile and a half... I'd take Rachel and the "over" on Secretariat's 31 length Belmont triumph. Rachel and Secretariat in the same sentence?? You damned right!
Give 'em hell in the Preakness, Rachel, your biggest fan will be watching.
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