What a rousing start to Derby weekend with heavy favorite (and yet another Oaklawn Park graduate) Blind Luck ridden confidently by Rafael Bejarano from dead last to first by the slimmest of margins on the line. I never thought she would get there in time considering the slow fractions of the race. But clearly the Churchill strip was still a tad thick from the rains earlier in the week. A similar slow pace led to another shocking defeat of Rachel Alexandra earlier in the race card. After Rachel shared the dawdling pace of :24.79, :48.81 and 1:12.53 (all at least a full second slower than her remarkably consistent splits from last year), she still couldn't hold off the stalker Unrivaled Belle through the stretch, losing by a headbob. Based on Steve Asmussen's definition of running her "only if I was sure she was going to win," I don't see how they could even return her to the track with a pretty salty mare division shaping up this season. But I digress.
Speaking of rain, even though there are forecasts for rain about every three years on Derby day (yet it rarely leads to a "sloppy" or "muddy" track), it appears that this year may be the real deal with flash flooding alerts Saturday and Sunday for Louisville. Several people told me today that they listened to the radio and DJs were talking about betting the mudders. In my opinion, this is about the most over-hyped betting angle for this particular race, since most of these horses have never even ran on an off surface and many others have run as much on synthetics and/or turf as dirt. So this angle may apply better to a race for older horses who have multiple races on an "off" track to sample from. Regardless, this will surely impact the wagering as many "average joes" will be betting this race rather than your hard core New Yorker OTB bookie.
Take a peak at how the odds have already been affected by the first day of action for The Derby...
Kentucky Derby advance-wagering odds:
(No., Horse, Odds)
1. Lookin At Lucky, 9-1
2. Ice Box, 11-1
3. Noble's Promise, 21-1
4. Super Saver, 7-1
5. Line of David, 15-1
6. Stately Victor, 16-1
7. American Lion, 25-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 18-1
9. Make Music for Me, 25-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 11-1
11. Devil May Care, 11-1
12. Conveyance, 25-1
13. Jackson Bend, 22-1
14. Mission Impazible, 24-1
15. Discreetly Mine, 41-1
16. Awesome Act, 13-1
17. Dublin, 21-1
18. Backtalk, 20-1
19. Homeboykris, 17-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 11-1
Total win pool, $340,544
As you can see, there are some juicy odds out there and multiple overlays with expected favorites. But even a better indication than current pari-mutuel win pool is the established Oaks-Derby double pool, where the professional gamblers have already tipped their cards. The win pools seem to be the preferred choice of the locals who came out today and made all their Derby bets since they will sell their boxes for Derby Day for tens of thousands of dollars. Thus, the first day odds are usually atypical of the core betting patterns. (It seems like local hero General Quarters was a favorite last yeat at this time.) In the "smart money" camp, the favorites (in order) are Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver and Ice Box. Keep this in mid as you make your selections tomorrow.
Until then, as Robin Leach used to say, "may you have 'mint julep' kisses and 'Derby pie' dreams...
Showing posts with label Kentucky Oaks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Oaks. Show all posts
April 30, 2010
April 27, 2009
Derby 135 Week - Rachel Getting Ready
Monday had no shortage of drama on the Churchill Downs racing strip. By now you have probably seen the graphic video of a tragic training accident that occurred when a three year-old colt tossed his jockey and proceeded his workout, where he slammed into an unraced 2 year-old filly (Raspberry Kiss) at approximately 40 mph. You can probably guess the result... the filly received a broken pelvis and had to be euthanized, a truly heartbreaking scene.
The accident happened just as Calvin Borel was ready to shake the reigns at Rachel Alexandra to initiate her workout. When Rachel returned to the track to complete her scheduled work, the leggy daughter of Medaglia d'Oro dropped some jaws as she blazed around the track completing 5 furlongs in :58.40 and 6 panels in 1:10.60. By contrast, several entries in The Derby also had 5 furlong tuneups for Saturday's run for the roses; Pioneer of the Nile - 1:00.87, Chocolate Candy - :59.24, Join in the Dance - 1:00.20, Take the Points - 1:00.06, Win Willy - 1:02.40 and Friesan Fire - :57.86, following Larry Jones' aggressive training script. Even though Friesan Fire was the only horse to work faster than Rachel for 5/8ths of a mile, she made up four seconds while galloping out the final furlong while well in hand under Calvin "Bo-rail".
So what do all of these times mean... after all, this isn't quarter horse racing we're talking about! As a frame of reference, some of the fastest pre-Derby works in years past produced mixed results. Trainer Larry Jones employed the same style that didn't seem to phase Eight Belles (:58.20) or Hard Spun (:57.60) in previous runner-up efforts and Smarty Jones had a bullet 5 furlongs in :58.00 before his 2004 Derby triumph. However, the tightening may have adversely affected Point Given in 2001 (:58.20) and Artax in 1998 (:58.00), which had the scribes scurrying.
Trivia Answer: War Emblem was Baffert's last Derby winner, although he took over training the colt just prior to his Illinois Derby victory. His previous "real" trainee was "the fish" Real Quiet in 1998 one year after his first score with Silver Charm.
By the end of today, we'll have the official field for The Derby with post position assignments and morning line odds. Good luck with your handicapping!
The accident happened just as Calvin Borel was ready to shake the reigns at Rachel Alexandra to initiate her workout. When Rachel returned to the track to complete her scheduled work, the leggy daughter of Medaglia d'Oro dropped some jaws as she blazed around the track completing 5 furlongs in :58.40 and 6 panels in 1:10.60. By contrast, several entries in The Derby also had 5 furlong tuneups for Saturday's run for the roses; Pioneer of the Nile - 1:00.87, Chocolate Candy - :59.24, Join in the Dance - 1:00.20, Take the Points - 1:00.06, Win Willy - 1:02.40 and Friesan Fire - :57.86, following Larry Jones' aggressive training script. Even though Friesan Fire was the only horse to work faster than Rachel for 5/8ths of a mile, she made up four seconds while galloping out the final furlong while well in hand under Calvin "Bo-rail".
So what do all of these times mean... after all, this isn't quarter horse racing we're talking about! As a frame of reference, some of the fastest pre-Derby works in years past produced mixed results. Trainer Larry Jones employed the same style that didn't seem to phase Eight Belles (:58.20) or Hard Spun (:57.60) in previous runner-up efforts and Smarty Jones had a bullet 5 furlongs in :58.00 before his 2004 Derby triumph. However, the tightening may have adversely affected Point Given in 2001 (:58.20) and Artax in 1998 (:58.00), which had the scribes scurrying.
Trivia Answer: War Emblem was Baffert's last Derby winner, although he took over training the colt just prior to his Illinois Derby victory. His previous "real" trainee was "the fish" Real Quiet in 1998 one year after his first score with Silver Charm.
By the end of today, we'll have the official field for The Derby with post position assignments and morning line odds. Good luck with your handicapping!
Derby 135 - Tuesday
Well, let's get the bad news out of the way and move on... Quality Road has been declared out of The Derby based on his deteriorating quarter crack. You would think that I have learned every possible lesson from Derbies past, but I had started my betting strategy a little early this year and had pretty much decided to single Quality Road on top in my big exotic tickets... so much for that! As I indicated in an earlier post, this defection will have a HUGE impact on not only on the odds, but also the pace scenario, where he was likely to ensure a brisk pace being on or very near the lead. Now that he and The Pamplemousse are victims of the Derby trail, that must make the Friesan Fire and Papa Clem camps overjoyed by expecting more moderate fractions for the half mile and 6 furlong intervals.
On a positive note, Friday is setting up to be a huge day for the ladies at Churchill Downs. Not only will Rachel Alexandra be trying to establish herself as one of the great fillies of all time by extending her dominant win streak in the Kentucky Oaks, but it is projected that champion undefeated mare Zenyatta will make her 2009 debut in the Louisville Distaff, also on Friday's card. Zenyatta has already firmly proven herself, winning all nine starts (including the 2008 Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park) and a similar campain in 2009 will make her one of the true greats - male or female - to ever grace the oval. This couldn't have shaped up any better for Churchill Downs, who is trying to establish a Kentucky Oaks attendance record by hosting Susan G. Komen Cancer charity events throughout the infield on "wear pink" day.
Trivia Answer: Yesterday's trivia answer is Alydar, who sired both Alysheba (see my related archived tribute) and Strike The Gold. Strangely enough, "super stud" A.P. Indy has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, although he was twice recognized as sire of the year by progeny earnings and produced Triple Crown champs Bernardini (Preakness) and Rags to Riches (Belmont). The votes were evenly distributed across the four choices. I will offer an easier trivia question today (at least for you Google maniacs!).
Happy Derby Week!
On a positive note, Friday is setting up to be a huge day for the ladies at Churchill Downs. Not only will Rachel Alexandra be trying to establish herself as one of the great fillies of all time by extending her dominant win streak in the Kentucky Oaks, but it is projected that champion undefeated mare Zenyatta will make her 2009 debut in the Louisville Distaff, also on Friday's card. Zenyatta has already firmly proven herself, winning all nine starts (including the 2008 Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park) and a similar campain in 2009 will make her one of the true greats - male or female - to ever grace the oval. This couldn't have shaped up any better for Churchill Downs, who is trying to establish a Kentucky Oaks attendance record by hosting Susan G. Komen Cancer charity events throughout the infield on "wear pink" day.
Trivia Answer: Yesterday's trivia answer is Alydar, who sired both Alysheba (see my related archived tribute) and Strike The Gold. Strangely enough, "super stud" A.P. Indy has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, although he was twice recognized as sire of the year by progeny earnings and produced Triple Crown champs Bernardini (Preakness) and Rags to Riches (Belmont). The votes were evenly distributed across the four choices. I will offer an easier trivia question today (at least for you Google maniacs!).
Happy Derby Week!
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