March 3, 2008

Inconclusive Gulfstream weekend

I recently journeyed to the mecca of spring 3 year-old racing known as Gulfstream Park, looking for some clarity in the early Derby picture, but came back with nothing more than confusion and a nasty spring cold. Fountain of Youth stakes day proved to be an oddity on several fronts, with several highly regarded colts turning in atypical efforts in their debut race of 2008, including post-time favorite and Todd Pletcher charge Monba (last), Anak Nakal (8th) and Court Vision from the stocked Bill Mott barn closing fast to finish a respectable third. What ensued was even more perplexing. The final time for the race was originally recorded at a pedestrian 1:51 4/5 for the 9 furlong event, several seconds slower than average at this class level. However, in the days that followed the times were revised twice, now thought to be 1:50 1/5, still sluggish by top standards. This resulted in two mid-priced stalkers in Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields enduring in the lane for the win and place, respectively. One similar trait these two entries shared is that they had each raced recently in Florida, backing up the "second off a layoff" theory that a horse will be at their optimal performance in their 2nd or 3rd race from a lengthy comeback. At any rate, I do not believe these were the top horses in the race and feel that the true talent will surface in later preps.

In the race that followed the Fountain of Youth, the #1 rated 3 Y-O by most experts - War Pass, essentially had a walkover in an allowance race written specifically for his comeback against four overmatched foes. This muscular son of champion sprinter Cherokee Run, who can freakishly carry his speed (Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion last fall won gate to wire) eerily reminds me of Bellamy Road (coincidentally also trained by Nick Zito), who was never truly challenged prior to being a prohibitive favorite for KY Derby 131 in spite of his front-running style, whilst finishing a well beaten 7th on the first Saturday of May.

This weekend (March 8th) should further clarify the Derby scene with top preps being run in California, Louisiana and New York, including a colt I'm really interested in seeing in the LA Derby - Majestic Warrior. More updates following Saturday!

2 comments:

clay said...

Eric I agree with your assessment. I think this weeked's LA derby will tell us more. How do we hanicap the CA horses who may make their first start of their career on dirt in the Derby??

Captain Gordo said...

Hey Eric,

I understand you and your lovely bride are making the move to the "BIG D".

Lot's of good racing there!