Editor's note: Sorry - thought I had posted this weeks ago!
The Travers Stakes at Saratoga has a lofty reputation for displaying the top 3 year-0lds of the "second half" of the racing season, which is rarely the same group of sophomores considering the brutal grind of the spring Derby fever prep races. With the narrowest of victories, Afleet Express essentially locked up divisional honors for a colt not even in the race, Lookin At Lucky. The victory also catapulted his sire, Afleet Alex, to the head of the second crop sires list and now seems well on his way to be a major influence in classic bloodlines, ala Birdstone.
Perhaps if Fly Down could have gotten his nose to the wire first he could have still made a case for an Eclipse Award with a good showing in a Breeders' Cup race, considering his previous Belmont runner-up status. But Baffert has yet again proven his skills in this division. Three year-olds are especially judged by the Triple Crown series and with Super Saver and Ice Box's poor showing in the Travers, Lucky is essentially the last horse standing. But First Dude deserves another mention for yet another in the money finish with his show spot. The 3 year-old bay colt now has hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes (all grade I), and has earned more than $600,000 despite only a maiden victory in ten career starts!
Moving on to the Zenyatta vs. Rachel debate (as if there was any remaining), Miss Zen picked up her 18th consecutive victory without a defeat in early August at seaside Del Mar in the Grade I Clement Hirsch Stakes. Mike Smith rode Zen with extreme confidence as she was fanned wide on the turn and reached the front much earlier in the race than usual, but held on by her mammoth neck. She will likely get one penultimate start in California before the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic.
On the other coast, Rachel Alexandra lost her third race of 2010 while racing at 10 furlongs for the first time in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at historic Saratoga -- the site of her titillating victory in last summer's Woodward Stakes. After flashing her customary early speed to put away Life At Ten by the quarter pole, Rachel could not withstand the persistent stretch run of, well... Persistently - the $45 winner. This result confirms my belief that Rachel is most effective between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, which may now leave the Ladies Classic race as the only option for owner and trainer for Breeders' Cup consideration (assuming she shows up at all to Churchill Downs!).
June 25, 2010
Zenyatta reaffirms her place in history with 17th victory
Great Britain had the Beatles, South Africa rejoices with their vuvuzelas and now Hollywood Park patrons (and fellow Americans) celebrate the greatness that is Zenyatta. Named after the third Police album, "Zenyatta Mondatta" - which was widely proclaimed as Sting's break-out party, the giant dark brown (although she appears black) mare with the familiar full blaze now stands alone in the record books with her 17th consecutive victory in unrestricted races, 11 having been in Grade 1 company.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert came out even though he didn't have any horses running Sunday, along with Bo Derek and composer Burt Bacharach - although there would be no rain drops falling on this day, only tears of joy. "People love the stars," Baffert said. "I haven't seen this many people since she ran the last time." Her presence at Hollywood Park, along with a promotional Zen' bobblehead giveaway, helped attract a crowd of 12,232, significantly higher than the average of 4,200 over the three previous Sundays.
Zenyatta faced legitimate opponents in the Grade I Vanity Handicap to earn this record, while being burdened with significantly more saddle weight to carry. Under the race's handicap conditions, Zenyatta carried high weight of 129 pounds — nine to 17 more than her five rivals — because of her stellar record. The highest-weighted Vanity winners prior to Zenyatta were way back in the 1960's; champion Gamely carried 131 in 1968 and Silver Spoon won with 130 in 1960. "We're carrying a lot of weight and I just wanted to get that weight moving forward," jockey Mike Smith added, "so I tried to tip out as we came off the turn and use that momentum to kind of slingshot me even though I was a little wide, to get her at least running."
And ran she did, past Zardana (who previously had defeated Rachel Alexandra in her comeback at the Fair Grounds) and then past a begrudging St. Trinians near the wire, a graded stakes winner who was at her peak since recently defeating last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, Life Is Sweet. With the victory Zenyatta races past Hall of Fame members Citation and Cigar for consecutive win streak, although her record is even more special since she has yet to taste defeat.
In discussing her remaining pre-Breeders' Cup schedule, trainer John Shirreffs had the following to say. "How many times do you really want to cross the country," referring to the fact that the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November is Zenyatta's long-term goal. Thus, she will likely remain in California for one or possibly two more well-placed prep races. Then we could be treated to an epic Breeders' Cup Classic as four year-old Quality Road is back on a record-breaking streak of his own and last year's media darling Rachel Alexandra looked like her old self in romping by 10 lenghts in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs last weekend. If these great horses all stay sound and go postward in November that would certainly make up for the disappointing 2010 Triple Crown season. Stay tuned!
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert came out even though he didn't have any horses running Sunday, along with Bo Derek and composer Burt Bacharach - although there would be no rain drops falling on this day, only tears of joy. "People love the stars," Baffert said. "I haven't seen this many people since she ran the last time." Her presence at Hollywood Park, along with a promotional Zen' bobblehead giveaway, helped attract a crowd of 12,232, significantly higher than the average of 4,200 over the three previous Sundays.
Zenyatta faced legitimate opponents in the Grade I Vanity Handicap to earn this record, while being burdened with significantly more saddle weight to carry. Under the race's handicap conditions, Zenyatta carried high weight of 129 pounds — nine to 17 more than her five rivals — because of her stellar record. The highest-weighted Vanity winners prior to Zenyatta were way back in the 1960's; champion Gamely carried 131 in 1968 and Silver Spoon won with 130 in 1960. "We're carrying a lot of weight and I just wanted to get that weight moving forward," jockey Mike Smith added, "so I tried to tip out as we came off the turn and use that momentum to kind of slingshot me even though I was a little wide, to get her at least running."
And ran she did, past Zardana (who previously had defeated Rachel Alexandra in her comeback at the Fair Grounds) and then past a begrudging St. Trinians near the wire, a graded stakes winner who was at her peak since recently defeating last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, Life Is Sweet. With the victory Zenyatta races past Hall of Fame members Citation and Cigar for consecutive win streak, although her record is even more special since she has yet to taste defeat.
In discussing her remaining pre-Breeders' Cup schedule, trainer John Shirreffs had the following to say. "How many times do you really want to cross the country," referring to the fact that the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November is Zenyatta's long-term goal. Thus, she will likely remain in California for one or possibly two more well-placed prep races. Then we could be treated to an epic Breeders' Cup Classic as four year-old Quality Road is back on a record-breaking streak of his own and last year's media darling Rachel Alexandra looked like her old self in romping by 10 lenghts in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs last weekend. If these great horses all stay sound and go postward in November that would certainly make up for the disappointing 2010 Triple Crown season. Stay tuned!
June 9, 2010
Personal Ensign belated tribute
Personal Ensign died of natural causes on April 8th at age 26 at historic Claiborne Farm. The Phipps' family homebred daughter of Private Account out of the Hoist the Flag mare Grecian Banner will always be remembered as the Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion who went out on top after her 13th thrilling victory from as many starts, quite simply perfection. Thus, Personal Ensign is regarded as one of the greatest race mares of all-time. In fact, in a poll of "Greatest female race horse ever" I started last year during Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta's summer assault on horse racing, Rachel narrowly edged out Personal Ensign (7 to 6) with Ruffian also receiving a few votes but Zenyatta getting shut out (vote was prior to Breeders' Cup). I'm interested to see how these numbers may change at the conclusion to this year's season.
Personal Ensign's first of eight grade I wins came at age two, but she then was sidelined with a fractured pastern until September of her three year-old season (thus, no spring Classic attempts). Her four year-old season in 1988 was comparable to Rachel's Horse of the Year campaign last year in that she had 7 wins -- including beating the boys (Gulch) in The Whitney Handicap. Perhaps her '88 campaign was even better when you consider she competed in and won the year-end Breeders' Cup Distaff. In that career defining race at Churchill Downs, seemingly beaten on a sloppy track, Personal Ensign roared down the center of that long stretch under Randy Romero (who coincidentally will be enshrined into the Racing Hall of Fame this August at Saratoga, thanks to P.E.!) to catch the free-running Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, by a scant nose on the line. One of Tom Durkin's greatest race calls ever (check the Youtube video and tell me you don't have goose bumps!). And I believe she also would have been the overall Horse of the Year in 1988 had the much-hyped Alysheba not gotten slighted the year before after losing to Ferdinand by a nose in the Classic.
"She was a wonderful filly who overcame injury to win 13 straight races," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "She was certainly one of my all-time favorites. She was a career maker."
In addition to perfection ON the track, her accomplishments in the breeding shed far exceeded what most great race mares are able to produce through their progeny. Her first foal - Miner's Mark (not to be confused with the Kentucky 90 proof spirit) was a grade I winner and her second foal - the Mr. Prospector colt Our Emblem - is the sire of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. My Flag, the regal daughter of Easy Goer and Personal Ensign, won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her daughter Storm Flag Flying reproduced that effort with a win in the 2002 running. Another Personal Ensign colt, Traditionally, was a Grade I winner in 2001 and another daughter, Title Seeker, is the dam of yet another Grade II winner, Seeking the Title. This success led to her being named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 1996.
Along with Kentucky Derby winning fillies Genuine Risk and Winning Colors (who both passed away in 2008 - see archived tributes), Personal Ensign was the last anchor of the triangle that comprised the three best fillies over the last quarter century. That is, until our current string of femme fatals. Let's continue to wish Zenyatta and Rachel all the best to see if they are up to the challenge of capping their careers with as dramatic a finish as the graceful Personal Ensign!
Personal Ensign's first of eight grade I wins came at age two, but she then was sidelined with a fractured pastern until September of her three year-old season (thus, no spring Classic attempts). Her four year-old season in 1988 was comparable to Rachel's Horse of the Year campaign last year in that she had 7 wins -- including beating the boys (Gulch) in The Whitney Handicap. Perhaps her '88 campaign was even better when you consider she competed in and won the year-end Breeders' Cup Distaff. In that career defining race at Churchill Downs, seemingly beaten on a sloppy track, Personal Ensign roared down the center of that long stretch under Randy Romero (who coincidentally will be enshrined into the Racing Hall of Fame this August at Saratoga, thanks to P.E.!) to catch the free-running Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, by a scant nose on the line. One of Tom Durkin's greatest race calls ever (check the Youtube video and tell me you don't have goose bumps!). And I believe she also would have been the overall Horse of the Year in 1988 had the much-hyped Alysheba not gotten slighted the year before after losing to Ferdinand by a nose in the Classic.
"She was a wonderful filly who overcame injury to win 13 straight races," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "She was certainly one of my all-time favorites. She was a career maker."
In addition to perfection ON the track, her accomplishments in the breeding shed far exceeded what most great race mares are able to produce through their progeny. Her first foal - Miner's Mark (not to be confused with the Kentucky 90 proof spirit) was a grade I winner and her second foal - the Mr. Prospector colt Our Emblem - is the sire of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. My Flag, the regal daughter of Easy Goer and Personal Ensign, won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her daughter Storm Flag Flying reproduced that effort with a win in the 2002 running. Another Personal Ensign colt, Traditionally, was a Grade I winner in 2001 and another daughter, Title Seeker, is the dam of yet another Grade II winner, Seeking the Title. This success led to her being named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 1996.
Along with Kentucky Derby winning fillies Genuine Risk and Winning Colors (who both passed away in 2008 - see archived tributes), Personal Ensign was the last anchor of the triangle that comprised the three best fillies over the last quarter century. That is, until our current string of femme fatals. Let's continue to wish Zenyatta and Rachel all the best to see if they are up to the challenge of capping their careers with as dramatic a finish as the graceful Personal Ensign!
June 8, 2010
Belmont wrap and current 3 year-old picture
After Drosselmeyer captured the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes on Saturday, the Triple Crown Trail has finally ended with a resounding THUD (or should I say Dud!). Although always know for having potential with his breeding (I even had Drossel as high as #6 in my earliest Polls), it's clear to me that this unique distance was the only reason Drosselmeyer was able to notch this Grade I victory. He was soundly defeated by Belmont runner up Fly Down by six lengths in their local prep (Dwyer Stakes) for the Belmont -- which was run in a pedestrian 2:31.57. This year's Belmont time came in a full FOUR seconds slower than last years (granted, last year's winner Summer Bird was a better than average winner).
First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.
In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.
Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!
Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.
So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E
First Dude's show spot gave him the distinction of being the only colt to hit the board in more than one Classic race, a rarity from a historical perspective. Based on his tactical speed of going to the front (and being able to hang on after fast fractions - see Preakness Stakes) he should prove tough in the summer and fall races, which distances are usually 1 1/8 miles - other than the classic distance 1 1/4 miles of the Travers Stakes. But if I had to choose a three year-old colt at this date I would easily pick Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft (grandson of A.P. Indy) was a steal for only $80,000 at the 2008 Keeneland Yearling Sale. At the 9 furlong distance he previously trounced Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park and now has defeated (all very narrowly) First Dude on three separate occasions! His lone poor performance this year came in the Louisiana Derby, in which Drosselmeyer also ran a disappointing third. Finally, Fly Down was a late foal being born April 19th, so I feel he will only improve as he continues to physically mature.
In going over my "2010 Triple Crown notes" folder, yet again I am befuddled over how I didn't cash more tickets this spring! The three winners of Triple Crown races were ranked #1, #2 and #6 in my earliest Top 10 Poll. Even veteran turf writer Steve Haskin, who publishes more blogs than anyone on the subject during the spring, could only muster 'Lucky at #2 and Super Saver at #6, with Drosselmeyer not making his "Derby Dozen" at a comparable point in time. Yet I only cashed a $5 futures bet on Super Saver at 23-1 and a small exacta backup bet (I liked Paddy for the win at juicier odds) in the Preakness. Most recently in the Belmont, I was essentially out of my allotment of "dry powder" for the Triple Crown series and thus keyed Fly Down in a few trifecta tickets. Had he passed Drossel for the win, I would have had the tri, but it likely would have only paid a couple hundred bucks even with Drossel in the mix.
Oh well, at least I felt vindicated with Ice Box finishing up the track in 9th. If you go back and lood at his odds progression from his last few races, you'll see that this horse had no business being under 2-1 in a Belmont field that clearly lacked any significant pace. He went off at 46-1 in the FOY and finished 5th, beaten 12 lengths. With those top three defecting for other preps, his odds lowered to 21-1 in the Florida Derby where he won by a nose after sizzling splits. Then he again goes off around 20-1 in The Kentucky Derby and gets the wet-sealed track and fast pace to run into the money. But 9-5 at Belmont at a mile and one-half? As Lleyton Hewett used to say... C'mon! We'll see how Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky take to their freshening period and come back in the summer series (Haskell, Jim Dandy - Travers, etc.) and possibly against older horses in the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which is back at Churchill Downs, yeah!
Several of my work friends have asked what I'm going to do now that the Triple Crown is over (as if there are no more races beyond the Belmont!). I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the two biggest names in racing are both going to the Post this coming weekend. Zenyatta will be going for an historic 17th consecutive victory at her home course of Hollywood Park (where I believe they deserve this race - unlike other critics of her racing in Cali) and Rachel Alexandra will be running -- but in typical Jess Jackson fashion they won't say where until the last second. Thus, they'll probably choose the softest field to build back Rachel's confidence.
So yes, I will have periodic posts throughout the summer doldrums, so please stay tuned!!
Happy Racing,
E
Lookin At Lucky finally gets his break at Pimlico
What an interesting trip to the 2010 Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. Wanting to witness a Preakness Stakes in person at Pimlico Race Course before the Maryland Jockey Club likely moves the race to Laurel Park (due to financial woes as well as the decrepit state of the second oldest racing venue in these United States), my wife and I cheerily set out to the resting place of Edgar Allan Poe. I knew the trip was off to a good start when we came across Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey at the DFW airport as we both waited out extended weather delays. Jerry seemed to appreciate getting to "talk shop" about the next day's Preakness Stakes. Coincidentally, Jerry was flying back from visiting his father in El Paso and NOT heading northeast to Baltimore, as we were. And because of this exchange, I'll never beat myself up over my lousy picks again!
First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!
What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.
Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.
It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.
Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!
First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!
What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.
Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.
It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.
Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!
May 4, 2010
Preakness 135 Preview (and final Derby thoughts)
Let me start with a preview of Saturday's Preakness Stakes since I'm giving myself a trip to Baltimore as my own birthday present (I was born on the day of the first Kentucky Derby ever run - May 17 - won by Aristides in 1875). I 've never witnessed The Preakness Stakes and with the uncertainty regarding the bankruptcy of the Magna-owned Pimlico Racecourse, I'm worried that I may not get many more chances, at least in its current structure. After a furious work schedule this week, I'm finally home and getting back to priority numero uno... redeeming myself from those piss-poor Derby picks!
We have only five returners from Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Several of the seven new shooters intrigue me, as horses such as Aikenite, Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist were all briefly listed on my Top 10 Derby list. Although, I'm not sure any of them have the talent to take home the Woodlawn Vase come Saturday. One horse that interested me in the final days leading up to The Derby - Paddy O'Prado - overcame a rough trip in The Derby to just get caught by Ice Box for 2nd place. My initial reaction to Desormeaux's poor ride in the final yards was also covered by beat writers, who likewise questioned "Squeaky's" ride. Rather than replacing him, trainer Dale Romans decided to keep him on the mount knowing that Kent will try extra special to prove his critics wrong by winning the Preakness. He is certainly a capable horse and his inherent speed should give him even more of an edge than Super Saver, who breaks to Paddy's inside by two stalls in post 8. Kent relishes the spoiler role and has a good position to sit just off Super Saver's flank, pushing him into a quicker pace and wearing him down in the stretch.
And if they do go quick up front, look for the California bred Caracortado to be moving best in the stretch. His upset could lead to a rare feat in Triple Crown racing by giving Maria's Mon the distinction of siring a Derby winner and being the broodmare sire of the Preakness winner in the same year. It's too bad this stallion passed away at a fairly young age and the owners won't be able to capitalize on Derby inflated stud fees, ala Birdstone from last year's three year-old crop. While I expect both Lookin At Lucky and Super Saver to run well, there's no use taking a short-priced horse in what is clearly an average group of sophomores.
I've had to answer my own critics regarding my faulty pace prediction in The Derby, but I'm convinced something weird was going on with that wet-sealed track after watching the replay a few more times. I've never seen front-runners stop as severely as Conveyance and Sidney's Candy "spit the bit" and fairly early into the turn, at that. These two horses are the reason Lookin At Lucky, Paddy and Ice Box had to check multiple times in the stretch as they were avoiding the horse's rapid retreats. Perhaps the worst betting strategy, however, was that of playing the "slop" angle, even though most of these young colts (and filly) had yet to even test an off track. Consider the comments by veteran turf writer, Steve Haskin, in his blog @ http://www.bloodhorse.com/: "Stately Victor, who, based on his pedigree, could actually improve off his dominating victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on Polytrack. If there is a better bred horse for the slop, we haven’t seen him. His sire, Ghostzapper , earned a spectacular 128 Beyer figure in the slop at Monmouth, winning the Iselin Handicap (gr. III) by 10 3/4 lengths. Ghostzapper’s sire, Awesome Again , was two-for-two in the slop, winning the Jim Dandy (gr. II) by three lengths and a Churchill Downs allowance race by seven lengths."
Yes, Super Saver had won on the slop as a 2YO (which he was supposed to at odds-on), but Paddy O'Prado finished 7th last year in his only run over a wet track, yet he appeared to relish the spatter. And while I'm diverting blame, let me add the NBC telecast to the list. How many times could you possibly show the "Shemp" looking schmuck with the briefcase? Yes, I know he bet his $100,000 on Super Saver and won nearly a million bucks due to this, but I would have preferred a live shot of the WinStar Farm owners (remember ABC's emotional exchange between Frances Genter and Carl Nafzger when Unbridled won the roses in 1990?) or Todd Pletcher as he watched the finish and not when he was walking alone through the paddock. At least they let it roll for the full Donna Barton-Brothers and Calvin Borel exchange on horseback. Calvin, maybe you will win the Triple Crown this year, but come Saturday I'll be rooting for a Paddy-Caracortado exacta. Erin go Bragh!
May 1, 2010
Kentucky Derby 136 goes to Super Saver and Calvin Borel
Initial thoughts... damn, that was over so fast. Unfortunately, NBC sports didn't show most of the split times, but it seemed like Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were zipping along at a pretty solid clip. I will eat a little crow and admit I thought the pace would be a bit slower, although I'm not sure what the effect of a wet-sealed track had on fractions. Smarty Jones (who stalked in 3rd/4th) won in 2004 on an "off" track that Lion Heart controlled the splits of 22.99, 46.73, 1:11.80, 1:37.35, 2:04.06, yet continued to finish well for the place. Today's fractional times of 22.63, 46.16, 1:10.58, 1:37.65 and 2:04.45 were comparable other than the 6 furlong time which was about a full second faster and likely caused the two front-runners to burn out in the stretch. Also, the sealed track seemed to be favoring closers for much of the day as several strong favorites that typically run on or near the lead fizzled out. But Calvin Bo-rel was able to relax Super Saver enough to keep him 6th for the first six furlongs with a ground saving rail trip before passing Conveyance en route to Borel's third Derby victory in four years. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. How bout the fact that he still calls everyone 'sir' or 'ma'm' even though Bob Costas is shorter than he is?! And Todd Pletcher finally gets the monkey off his back.
The filly Devil May Care ran a big race before tiring in mid-stretch, as did Noble's Promise, who looked like a winner turning for home. Very poor showings by 5th choice Awesome Act and well-backed Mission Impazible and Stately Victor, who never threatened. The relatively unknown Paddy O'Prado ran a big one to just get nipped at the wire for second and the real shocker of the day was the last horse to get in, Make Music for Me, which sparked a $202,000 superfecta! One of these years I'll hopefully hit one this nice!
I'll tell you one thing, Lookin at Lucky was anything but "lucky" for a second race in a row - typical from a #1 post position - and will be my pick if they choose to run him back in the Preakness Stakes. Depending on the pace scenario, I don't think Ice Box will be as effective at Pimlico Race Course in two weeks. Most of the other horses in the race have a plausible excuse with the wet sealed track, which may actually discourage many trainers from running back in two weeks. I will be there for the Preakness this year so it wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Borel's prediction comes true - he said he wants to "get it done" this year for the Triple Crown... stay tuned!
The filly Devil May Care ran a big race before tiring in mid-stretch, as did Noble's Promise, who looked like a winner turning for home. Very poor showings by 5th choice Awesome Act and well-backed Mission Impazible and Stately Victor, who never threatened. The relatively unknown Paddy O'Prado ran a big one to just get nipped at the wire for second and the real shocker of the day was the last horse to get in, Make Music for Me, which sparked a $202,000 superfecta! One of these years I'll hopefully hit one this nice!
I'll tell you one thing, Lookin at Lucky was anything but "lucky" for a second race in a row - typical from a #1 post position - and will be my pick if they choose to run him back in the Preakness Stakes. Depending on the pace scenario, I don't think Ice Box will be as effective at Pimlico Race Course in two weeks. Most of the other horses in the race have a plausible excuse with the wet sealed track, which may actually discourage many trainers from running back in two weeks. I will be there for the Preakness this year so it wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Borel's prediction comes true - he said he wants to "get it done" this year for the Triple Crown... stay tuned!
April 30, 2010
Kentucky Oaks - Blind Luck's last to first victory
What a rousing start to Derby weekend with heavy favorite (and yet another Oaklawn Park graduate) Blind Luck ridden confidently by Rafael Bejarano from dead last to first by the slimmest of margins on the line. I never thought she would get there in time considering the slow fractions of the race. But clearly the Churchill strip was still a tad thick from the rains earlier in the week. A similar slow pace led to another shocking defeat of Rachel Alexandra earlier in the race card. After Rachel shared the dawdling pace of :24.79, :48.81 and 1:12.53 (all at least a full second slower than her remarkably consistent splits from last year), she still couldn't hold off the stalker Unrivaled Belle through the stretch, losing by a headbob. Based on Steve Asmussen's definition of running her "only if I was sure she was going to win," I don't see how they could even return her to the track with a pretty salty mare division shaping up this season. But I digress.
Speaking of rain, even though there are forecasts for rain about every three years on Derby day (yet it rarely leads to a "sloppy" or "muddy" track), it appears that this year may be the real deal with flash flooding alerts Saturday and Sunday for Louisville. Several people told me today that they listened to the radio and DJs were talking about betting the mudders. In my opinion, this is about the most over-hyped betting angle for this particular race, since most of these horses have never even ran on an off surface and many others have run as much on synthetics and/or turf as dirt. So this angle may apply better to a race for older horses who have multiple races on an "off" track to sample from. Regardless, this will surely impact the wagering as many "average joes" will be betting this race rather than your hard core New Yorker OTB bookie.
Take a peak at how the odds have already been affected by the first day of action for The Derby...
Kentucky Derby advance-wagering odds:
(No., Horse, Odds)
1. Lookin At Lucky, 9-1
2. Ice Box, 11-1
3. Noble's Promise, 21-1
4. Super Saver, 7-1
5. Line of David, 15-1
6. Stately Victor, 16-1
7. American Lion, 25-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 18-1
9. Make Music for Me, 25-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 11-1
11. Devil May Care, 11-1
12. Conveyance, 25-1
13. Jackson Bend, 22-1
14. Mission Impazible, 24-1
15. Discreetly Mine, 41-1
16. Awesome Act, 13-1
17. Dublin, 21-1
18. Backtalk, 20-1
19. Homeboykris, 17-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 11-1
Total win pool, $340,544
As you can see, there are some juicy odds out there and multiple overlays with expected favorites. But even a better indication than current pari-mutuel win pool is the established Oaks-Derby double pool, where the professional gamblers have already tipped their cards. The win pools seem to be the preferred choice of the locals who came out today and made all their Derby bets since they will sell their boxes for Derby Day for tens of thousands of dollars. Thus, the first day odds are usually atypical of the core betting patterns. (It seems like local hero General Quarters was a favorite last yeat at this time.) In the "smart money" camp, the favorites (in order) are Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver and Ice Box. Keep this in mid as you make your selections tomorrow.
Until then, as Robin Leach used to say, "may you have 'mint julep' kisses and 'Derby pie' dreams...
Speaking of rain, even though there are forecasts for rain about every three years on Derby day (yet it rarely leads to a "sloppy" or "muddy" track), it appears that this year may be the real deal with flash flooding alerts Saturday and Sunday for Louisville. Several people told me today that they listened to the radio and DJs were talking about betting the mudders. In my opinion, this is about the most over-hyped betting angle for this particular race, since most of these horses have never even ran on an off surface and many others have run as much on synthetics and/or turf as dirt. So this angle may apply better to a race for older horses who have multiple races on an "off" track to sample from. Regardless, this will surely impact the wagering as many "average joes" will be betting this race rather than your hard core New Yorker OTB bookie.
Take a peak at how the odds have already been affected by the first day of action for The Derby...
Kentucky Derby advance-wagering odds:
(No., Horse, Odds)
1. Lookin At Lucky, 9-1
2. Ice Box, 11-1
3. Noble's Promise, 21-1
4. Super Saver, 7-1
5. Line of David, 15-1
6. Stately Victor, 16-1
7. American Lion, 25-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 18-1
9. Make Music for Me, 25-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 11-1
11. Devil May Care, 11-1
12. Conveyance, 25-1
13. Jackson Bend, 22-1
14. Mission Impazible, 24-1
15. Discreetly Mine, 41-1
16. Awesome Act, 13-1
17. Dublin, 21-1
18. Backtalk, 20-1
19. Homeboykris, 17-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 11-1
Total win pool, $340,544
As you can see, there are some juicy odds out there and multiple overlays with expected favorites. But even a better indication than current pari-mutuel win pool is the established Oaks-Derby double pool, where the professional gamblers have already tipped their cards. The win pools seem to be the preferred choice of the locals who came out today and made all their Derby bets since they will sell their boxes for Derby Day for tens of thousands of dollars. Thus, the first day odds are usually atypical of the core betting patterns. (It seems like local hero General Quarters was a favorite last yeat at this time.) In the "smart money" camp, the favorites (in order) are Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver and Ice Box. Keep this in mid as you make your selections tomorrow.
Until then, as Robin Leach used to say, "may you have 'mint julep' kisses and 'Derby pie' dreams...
April 29, 2010
Derby week 136 - Finally Friday
It’s go time, baby… “Go, Baby, Go” reads the NTRA ad slogan and we’ll all be yelling that come Saturday around 5:15pm CST. I’ve watched as many replays as I can possibly watch and my eyes are bloodshot from straining in front of small print race charts and the computer screen. My dogs are barking at me to take them out, so I’ve gotta wrap this up. I must confess that I have spent more time on the betting side of the Derby this year than researching all the human interest stories out there. (Actually, I haven’t “studied” this much since taking the CFP exam years ago.) I am still bitter about that F’ing Mine That Bird last year costing me a stone-cold trifecta. I’m overdue for a winner, not having dinged the register since my Funny Cide overlay in 2003. That’s another thing about these odds to watch out for. I think Churchill Down’s handicapper – Mike Battaglia – sets some piss-poor early odds, which unfortunately has a major impact on betting strategies. The best advice I ever got was that if you’re going to lose your own money, you should at least pick who YOU think will win, not what someone else tells you!
I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.
After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]
Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.
Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”
My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!
So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!
Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.
Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.
E
I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.
After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]
Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.
Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”
My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!
So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!
Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.
Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.
E
April 28, 2010
Derby week trivia - Post Positions
Quite an ironic post position draw yesterday in that the two betting favorites in a seemingly wide open Derby drew the worst positions, see below. Many feel that the one hole is the worst spot but I can't help but think Sidney's Candy would be better off at the rail to save the ground, knowing he figures to be very close to the pace early and that there are 10 furlongs for him to maneuver around a horse or two, rather than being forced minimum 4 wide around the first turn. But the year Big Brown's camp chose the 20 post (while a couple other options were still available) people preached doom and gloom and he managed to get a fairly easy stalking trip only four wide. Several winners have come from the 15-20 post auxiliary gate over the past decade, so I guess anything is possible. Here's a look at the posts with odds, for your convenience:
1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1
Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.
This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.
Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!
Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.
If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!
1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1
Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.
This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.
Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!
Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.
If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!
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