I'll let you read this blurb and guess whether the A-hole I am referring to is the GI health issues that caused Uncle Mo to scratch, or his cocky owner.
"Does it hurt that he’s not here?" Repole said. "Yes, because Uncle Mo, in my opinion he’s five to seven lengths better than any horse in this race," Repole said.
"As bad as I want win this race, (Pletcher) is 43 and I’m 42. He looks a lot older than I do, but the bottom line is that we’re going to be around a while. I have 100 friends and family in town and we still have a chance. Stay Thirsty had the best work of his life the other day. How many people have a horse scratched from this race and still have another one?”
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/62901/uncle-mo-scratched-out-of-kentucky-derby#ixzz1Lajm3qCH
There has been much talk within the racing circle that something was not quite right with this horse for over a week now. Robert LaPenta, the owner of the likely clear favorite in Dialed In with Mo's defection, essentially called out Pletcher and Repole on this issue in a statment a week ago. Mike Repole has a history of making cocky statements, such as just the other day saying he would wager enough money personally on Uncle Mo to guarantee he would go off as the favorite. Now he trashes the other Derby owners by saying his sick horse is "five to seven lengths better" than the actual Derby field?
This is an asinine comment and it's time that the racing world stand up to arrogant bastards like Repole. The Blood-Horse magazine recently featured young owners like Repole, Kevin Plank and Bobby Flay titled "Young Turks" and described how these young owners with large bankrolls are impacting the sport. But if this childish, schoolyard behavior and comments are representative of the type of impact to the future of our sport, I want no part of it. I wish Uncle Mo (and Stay Thirsty for that matter) well, but to Repole -- grow up you jerk!
Showing posts with label Uncle Mo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Uncle Mo. Show all posts
May 5, 2011
May 4, 2011
Derby 137 - Wednesday
Knocking on Wood – Potential toss horses
Now that I’ve spent the last two days singing the praises of Dialed In and Archtothe3, let me pause to mention my list of knocks against a bevy of horses (most notably from the Wood Memorial) that are likely to find good support at the windows on Saturday. Wood Memorial horses tend to get quite a bit of hype each year (after Secretariat ran there, why not?) and the last Derby winner from this race was in 2003 – Funny Cide, the longest dry spell of the major preps (FL Derby, SA Derby, AR Derby, Blue Grass, Wood).
See more http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Knocking_on_Wood_Potential_toss_horses_123
Now that I’ve spent the last two days singing the praises of Dialed In and Archtothe3, let me pause to mention my list of knocks against a bevy of horses (most notably from the Wood Memorial) that are likely to find good support at the windows on Saturday. Wood Memorial horses tend to get quite a bit of hype each year (after Secretariat ran there, why not?) and the last Derby winner from this race was in 2003 – Funny Cide, the longest dry spell of the major preps (FL Derby, SA Derby, AR Derby, Blue Grass, Wood).
See more http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Knocking_on_Wood_Potential_toss_horses_123
April 8, 2011
Derby Top 10 - April 8 update
Top 10 removals: I will be removing Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky due to poor performance and forced to scratch Premier Pegasus and To Honor and Serve due to injuries - all within past two days! At this point, I'm not sure I can even find four new horses to meet my quota, but I'll give it the good old college try...
1) Dialed In – In my last update I stated, "Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville." At this point, I would almost rather he lost the close decision in the Florida Derby to 70-1 shot Shackleford. Then even more skeptics would be saying for two races in a row he wasn't good enough to beat long-shot winners. But if you've heard me say it once, you've heard it a thousand times from me that "pace makes the race." In spite of apparent legit fractions, the track was clearly displaying a speed bias as the only horse in the 8 horse field who gained ground from the 6th to 9th furlong was Dialed In, a remarkable statistic! With the unprecedented changes in my top 10 list this year with the long-shot winners and numerous injuries, this guy has reassured me why he's been my top pick all along. He may need that extra week or two prior to The Derby to recoup from his furios stretch drive.
2) Santiva – Still waiting for next weekend's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has performed well as a 2YO. Likely the most versatile colt heading towards Louisville in that he has run well pressing the pace but has also circled the field to win. Should be a small price in his final prep and I'm tempted to make a large exacta wager and hope for yet another huge long-shot to key a nice exotic payoff!
3) Uncle Mo – A bizarre Derby trail could become a historically insane year if 'Mo is upstaged on Saturday. He is less susceptible to upset since he is usually the controlling speed that can prevent another horse let alone on a dawdling pace. Very few 3YO's can withstand the rigors of The Derby without having been tested and the undeniable fact is that this one has had the easiest route to Louisville, possibly ever! If The Factor runs well at Oaklawn next weekend and goes Derby bound that could throw a wrench in Mo's plans if he's not able to rate. He very much reminds me of a Quality Road type - uber talent with pure speed, but these types sometime come undone in big races.
4) Mucho Macho Man – Didn't have a great Louisiana Derby but the pace didn't really set up for his stretch run. Disturbing that he got passed that easily by 36-1 shot maiden winner Nehro for the place, but sometimes closers too close to the lead will run evenly. The bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. With this breeding advantage at longer distances, I'm keeping him relatively high on the list.
5) Astrology - Not sure why Asmussen decided to wait so long for his unveiling, perhaps he knew he could pick up enough earnings in two preps. Sharp second in the 800K Sunland Derby (don't laugh, Mine That Bird went that route!) after pressing a very fast pace and fighting gamely in the stretch off a four month layoff at 1 1/8 miles. Just read today where A.P. Indy has been pensioned from stud duty due to infertility and how appropriate would it be for one of his youngest sons to get the chefs-de-race sire on the board in the world's greatest horse race.
6) Jaycito – Baffert had to scratch from the Santa Anita Derby this weekend due to a lingering hoof abcess, but will send him to the Coolmore Lexington Stakes just two weeks prior to The Derby. I actually like this race pattern, as opposed to sitting out 6 weeks - especially with such a fresh horse. Typically comes from the clouds so he will need an average or better pace in Derby, but with these long-shots going forward, several may decide if they can't win The Derby they want to say the led "a few laps" and make the pace hotter.
7) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
8)Silver Medallion - This year's turf/synthetic specialist who is trying conventional dirt for the first time in the SA Derby. Smartly bred grandson of Silver Deputy out of a Stalwart mare could be dangerous this weekend and again on May 7th if he takes to the dirt, as his breeding suggests he could do. I'm a big fan of the underrated Silver Deputy - Deputy Minister blood and this one could verify my hunch.
9) Anthony's Cross - Well raced as a 2YO, he has switched results with a couple others on this list but seems to be doing well at the moment. If you watch his gutsy Robert Lewis Stakes victory, it's hard to see how any horse could ever run by this guy. Should run well in the SA Derby as he's proven he likes the track and could punch his ticket to the big dance with a win, place, or possibly even show effort.
10)Brethren - Was back and forth between this one and Alternation - the Von Hemel Distorted Humor colt I was backing in The Rebel who flipped in the stall and had to scratch. Brethren's older brother Super Saver had a poor race at Tampa Bay Downs last spring also before running second in the ARK Derby and then taking the roses, so that's good enough for my last spot.
Enjoy the Derby preps this weekend and let's continue to pull for Uncle Mo to win handily to set the stage in Louisville.
Happy Racing!
1) Dialed In – In my last update I stated, "Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville." At this point, I would almost rather he lost the close decision in the Florida Derby to 70-1 shot Shackleford. Then even more skeptics would be saying for two races in a row he wasn't good enough to beat long-shot winners. But if you've heard me say it once, you've heard it a thousand times from me that "pace makes the race." In spite of apparent legit fractions, the track was clearly displaying a speed bias as the only horse in the 8 horse field who gained ground from the 6th to 9th furlong was Dialed In, a remarkable statistic! With the unprecedented changes in my top 10 list this year with the long-shot winners and numerous injuries, this guy has reassured me why he's been my top pick all along. He may need that extra week or two prior to The Derby to recoup from his furios stretch drive.
2) Santiva – Still waiting for next weekend's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has performed well as a 2YO. Likely the most versatile colt heading towards Louisville in that he has run well pressing the pace but has also circled the field to win. Should be a small price in his final prep and I'm tempted to make a large exacta wager and hope for yet another huge long-shot to key a nice exotic payoff!
3) Uncle Mo – A bizarre Derby trail could become a historically insane year if 'Mo is upstaged on Saturday. He is less susceptible to upset since he is usually the controlling speed that can prevent another horse let alone on a dawdling pace. Very few 3YO's can withstand the rigors of The Derby without having been tested and the undeniable fact is that this one has had the easiest route to Louisville, possibly ever! If The Factor runs well at Oaklawn next weekend and goes Derby bound that could throw a wrench in Mo's plans if he's not able to rate. He very much reminds me of a Quality Road type - uber talent with pure speed, but these types sometime come undone in big races.
4) Mucho Macho Man – Didn't have a great Louisiana Derby but the pace didn't really set up for his stretch run. Disturbing that he got passed that easily by 36-1 shot maiden winner Nehro for the place, but sometimes closers too close to the lead will run evenly. The bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. With this breeding advantage at longer distances, I'm keeping him relatively high on the list.
5) Astrology - Not sure why Asmussen decided to wait so long for his unveiling, perhaps he knew he could pick up enough earnings in two preps. Sharp second in the 800K Sunland Derby (don't laugh, Mine That Bird went that route!) after pressing a very fast pace and fighting gamely in the stretch off a four month layoff at 1 1/8 miles. Just read today where A.P. Indy has been pensioned from stud duty due to infertility and how appropriate would it be for one of his youngest sons to get the chefs-de-race sire on the board in the world's greatest horse race.
6) Jaycito – Baffert had to scratch from the Santa Anita Derby this weekend due to a lingering hoof abcess, but will send him to the Coolmore Lexington Stakes just two weeks prior to The Derby. I actually like this race pattern, as opposed to sitting out 6 weeks - especially with such a fresh horse. Typically comes from the clouds so he will need an average or better pace in Derby, but with these long-shots going forward, several may decide if they can't win The Derby they want to say the led "a few laps" and make the pace hotter.
7) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
8)Silver Medallion - This year's turf/synthetic specialist who is trying conventional dirt for the first time in the SA Derby. Smartly bred grandson of Silver Deputy out of a Stalwart mare could be dangerous this weekend and again on May 7th if he takes to the dirt, as his breeding suggests he could do. I'm a big fan of the underrated Silver Deputy - Deputy Minister blood and this one could verify my hunch.
9) Anthony's Cross - Well raced as a 2YO, he has switched results with a couple others on this list but seems to be doing well at the moment. If you watch his gutsy Robert Lewis Stakes victory, it's hard to see how any horse could ever run by this guy. Should run well in the SA Derby as he's proven he likes the track and could punch his ticket to the big dance with a win, place, or possibly even show effort.
10)Brethren - Was back and forth between this one and Alternation - the Von Hemel Distorted Humor colt I was backing in The Rebel who flipped in the stall and had to scratch. Brethren's older brother Super Saver had a poor race at Tampa Bay Downs last spring also before running second in the ARK Derby and then taking the roses, so that's good enough for my last spot.
Enjoy the Derby preps this weekend and let's continue to pull for Uncle Mo to win handily to set the stage in Louisville.
Happy Racing!
March 20, 2011
Kentucky Derby Top 10 list - March 20
Another two weekends of prep races have come and gone, yet I am stuck in a rut with my Derby handicapping. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a flop with two bomb long-shots completing the $2,200 exacta (on a $2 bet!). Now don't get me wrong, I prefer a mid-priced horse winning here and there to spark a nice payoff. But this race outcome reminded me of the Rockamundo shocker at 100-1 in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, Calvin Borel's first major victory. At least it was a nice and sunny day at the Oldsmar, FL track with a festive crowd in attendance.
But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!
Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).
1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.
2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.
3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.
4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).
5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.
6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.
7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.
8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.
9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.
Happy Racing!
E
But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!
Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).
1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.
2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.
3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.
4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).
5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.
6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.
7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.
8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.
9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.
Happy Racing!
E
March 7, 2011
Uncle Mo tops weekend preps
What we are fairly sure of is that Uncle Mo will run on Saturday, although still not positive where - in the Tampa Bay Derby or Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, an "overnight" stakes (assuming enough horses enter) created to fit the specs of Pletcher. When the race was originally scheduled to be run at 8.5 furlongs, there was a chance that Dialed In and Uncle Mo would have gone head to head in this ungraded race at Gulfstream. But after owner Mike Repole made the case to Gulfstream's racing secretary to shorten the race to a one-turn mile for Uncle Mo, Nick Zito looked elsewhere to get valuable two-turn experience for his son of Mineshaft, even though that meant in a small field against older horses. So even though Dialed In ran a fast closing second after spotting a dawdling pace, perhaps this could be more meaningful than anything Mo may do this weekend.
I, for one, hope Mo is on or pressing the pace and wins in a blistering time in the Timely Writer. Based on this year's early favorites running poorly (Comma to the Top, To Honor and Serve, Tapizar), not running at all (Jaycito, Astrology) or off the trail (Boys at Tosconova), a strong showing by Mo on Saturday will create a virtual walkover in the Wood Memorial and essentially put his odds at even money come the first Saturday in May. And to beat him on that day with more battle tested horses means a five figure trifecta payout!
I'm not going to release my third Top 10 list under after Mo's first appearance on the trail, but elsewhere this weekend on the left coast, Jaycito and Comma to the Top look to stay in The Derby fray in The San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the new, lightning-fast Santa Anita dirt track.
Also, next weekend's Rebel Stakes at my beloved home track of Oaklawn Park is setting up to be a doozy. The Factor, Astrology and Sway Away from California are likely to join the top five finishers from the Southwest Mile (won by ArchArchArch) and multiple Oaklawn allowance winner Alternation, the son of Distorted Humor who won on the undercard to the Southwest in a faster time. With this many horses still fighting for precious graded stakes money, an off-the-board finish in the Rebel may mean goodbye to The Derby trail (and hello to the lower rungs, like the Lone Star or West Virginia Derby).
Good luck at the betting windows this weekend! I'll publish my report from the Tampa Bay Derby next week.
I, for one, hope Mo is on or pressing the pace and wins in a blistering time in the Timely Writer. Based on this year's early favorites running poorly (Comma to the Top, To Honor and Serve, Tapizar), not running at all (Jaycito, Astrology) or off the trail (Boys at Tosconova), a strong showing by Mo on Saturday will create a virtual walkover in the Wood Memorial and essentially put his odds at even money come the first Saturday in May. And to beat him on that day with more battle tested horses means a five figure trifecta payout!
I'm not going to release my third Top 10 list under after Mo's first appearance on the trail, but elsewhere this weekend on the left coast, Jaycito and Comma to the Top look to stay in The Derby fray in The San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the new, lightning-fast Santa Anita dirt track.
Also, next weekend's Rebel Stakes at my beloved home track of Oaklawn Park is setting up to be a doozy. The Factor, Astrology and Sway Away from California are likely to join the top five finishers from the Southwest Mile (won by ArchArchArch) and multiple Oaklawn allowance winner Alternation, the son of Distorted Humor who won on the undercard to the Southwest in a faster time. With this many horses still fighting for precious graded stakes money, an off-the-board finish in the Rebel may mean goodbye to The Derby trail (and hello to the lower rungs, like the Lone Star or West Virginia Derby).
Good luck at the betting windows this weekend! I'll publish my report from the Tampa Bay Derby next week.
February 2, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Trail
On the heels (pun intended) of two of the greatest campaigns by a filly or mare of all-time in Rachel's 2009 and Zenyatta's 2010 season, it's time that the Derby sophomores reclaim the headlines. And there appears to be a talented enough crop to do the job in 2011 led by Uncle Mo, who has received the most amount of hype for a juvenile that I can recall since Arazi in 1992 and Favorite Trick - the Juvenile champion and overall Horse of the Year in 1997. Speaking of droughts, Lookin At Lucky broke a historic one last year when he was the only 2YO champion to repeat as 3YO champion since Spectacular Bid waaaaayyyy back in 1979!
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
