Wow, what a great two-thirds completion to racing's famed Triple Crown series of spring classics we have seen! First of all, the Derby was run pretty much true to form with the stalker-type horse getting the best trip pulling away late (I'll Have Another). It really shocked me how smooth of a trip the young Mario Gutierrez guided him around from the #19 post being only three wide on the first turn. But going into the Preakness I was still convinced that Bodemeister was the best horse in the race -- "not no more." After carving out very sensible fractions while only slightly pressured by Creative Cause, Bode held tough in the stretch but was simply passed by a better horse at these classic distances. It only looks better for IHA from here, as his breeding and dosage screams 12 furlongs of the Belmont distance more than any other foe likely to tackle him that day. But the Belmont Stakes isn't always won by the most stamina laden horse, rather they are often lost by inexperienced jockeys (more on that in a future post).
Recapping my annual Derby Top 10 listing, I must say that I probably had one of my best years ever across the board. Sure, I added Bodemeister at the 11th hour, but had faith that he would not be the one hit wonder (ala Bellamy Road) that so many "experts" predicted. So even though I failed to capture the Derby with my top selection (Bode), my top five spots going into the Derby (see below) swept the top five placings in the KY Derby (not in exact order) and top three in the Preakness. Now show me another handicapper who was on record doing this and I'll buy YOU another! Having said that, I got a little cute with my key positions in my trifecta and superfecta tickets and managed only a couple of small backup winnings. And while I hit the Preakness stone-cold, it's hard to brag about a whopping $70 trifecta at any level. But my theme was right on all year with the best of the bunch coming from California, as evidenced by the top 3 finishers from Saturday's Preakness. I'm not quite ready to break down the Belmont race that is still shaping up, but let's just say I hope Senor Gutierrez is intently watching video of the last 12 failed Triple Crown attempts, particularly 1998 and 2004.
1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
May 21, 2012
April 22, 2012
Derby 138 - Final Ranking
Unlike most items (such as tax filings and house chores), I have taken the initiative to handicap The Derby two weeks in advance, leaving the final betting strategy until after the post position draw. I have removed horse 8, 9 and 10 from my last ranking; News Pending, Najjaar and Midnight Transfer since they failed to fire as long-shots in their last prep and won't be in The Derby 20 horse starting gate. The race is most assuredly going to get 20 actual starters this year with the four also eligible list in case of late scratches. So this is how I see things heading into Louisville...
1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
6) Union Rags: I actually think he will be more bettable after his 3rd place finish getting boxed in the entire race of the Florida Derby. I still feel that he may have distance limitations, but Matz has commented that his huge size and running style is much different than other Dixie Union offspring, so he could be the exception (ala Big Brown via Boundary). Certainly the one I like most coming out of Florida, although Take Charge Indy appears to be stepping up at the right time.
7) Alpha: Since as many Derby winners come off place finishes in their final prep, I prefer this one's style to that of the undefeated Gemologist out of the Wood Memorial, which speed numbers were one of the slower 9 furlong prep races. But his breeding is solid for this race and he could be sitting on his breakout race, which puts him right there at the wire.
8) Daddy Nose Best: Sire Scat Daddy is off to a surprisingly hot start and there seems to be more stamina to this horse being out of the classic winning damsire, Thunder Gulch. Has improved nicely in his only two starts as a 3YO after trying the turf late in his juvenile campaign. Perfect closing style and not too many of these can boast two wins under their belts in 9 furlong races. In my opinion, he may present the best betting action as the livest of deep long-shots.
9)El Padrino: Pretty sure he will make The Derby field even though currently on the earnings bubble, but totally disappointed with his flat stretch run at Gulfstream. Perhaps his jock was too pre-occupied with trying to pin Union Rags down on rail to actually run his race. I've been burned several times with tossing my early season picks in The Derby due to one bad race (Bluegrass Cat), so I'll hope a change in tactics or riders will get him back on his game at much nicer odds. But seems like 2nd/3rd could be the best this guy has to offer.
10) Prospective: Certainly did not run as I had hoped in the Blue Grass, but Keenland's polytrack is different than the synthetic surfaces on which he ran in Canada. He had been very consistent closing in his prior dirt starts at Tampa Bay Downs and I will likely put him on bottom in my exotics. Some years, a horse good enough to run third can possibly even steal the race (i.e., Giacomo, Mine That Bird). He is one of numerous Breeders' Cup Juvenile starters back to battle in the big dance!
Don't forget to follow my blog the week of The Derby both here and at my HRN site under 12thCrown...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown
1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
6) Union Rags: I actually think he will be more bettable after his 3rd place finish getting boxed in the entire race of the Florida Derby. I still feel that he may have distance limitations, but Matz has commented that his huge size and running style is much different than other Dixie Union offspring, so he could be the exception (ala Big Brown via Boundary). Certainly the one I like most coming out of Florida, although Take Charge Indy appears to be stepping up at the right time.
7) Alpha: Since as many Derby winners come off place finishes in their final prep, I prefer this one's style to that of the undefeated Gemologist out of the Wood Memorial, which speed numbers were one of the slower 9 furlong prep races. But his breeding is solid for this race and he could be sitting on his breakout race, which puts him right there at the wire.
8) Daddy Nose Best: Sire Scat Daddy is off to a surprisingly hot start and there seems to be more stamina to this horse being out of the classic winning damsire, Thunder Gulch. Has improved nicely in his only two starts as a 3YO after trying the turf late in his juvenile campaign. Perfect closing style and not too many of these can boast two wins under their belts in 9 furlong races. In my opinion, he may present the best betting action as the livest of deep long-shots.
9)El Padrino: Pretty sure he will make The Derby field even though currently on the earnings bubble, but totally disappointed with his flat stretch run at Gulfstream. Perhaps his jock was too pre-occupied with trying to pin Union Rags down on rail to actually run his race. I've been burned several times with tossing my early season picks in The Derby due to one bad race (Bluegrass Cat), so I'll hope a change in tactics or riders will get him back on his game at much nicer odds. But seems like 2nd/3rd could be the best this guy has to offer.
10) Prospective: Certainly did not run as I had hoped in the Blue Grass, but Keenland's polytrack is different than the synthetic surfaces on which he ran in Canada. He had been very consistent closing in his prior dirt starts at Tampa Bay Downs and I will likely put him on bottom in my exotics. Some years, a horse good enough to run third can possibly even steal the race (i.e., Giacomo, Mine That Bird). He is one of numerous Breeders' Cup Juvenile starters back to battle in the big dance!
Don't forget to follow my blog the week of The Derby both here and at my HRN site under 12thCrown...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown
April 19, 2012
Bodemeister romps in Ark Derby, Unbridled potential
Vindication was a son of Seattle Slew who was voted champion two year-old colt in 2002. But there is another sort of vindication brewing about now. That is the goal of Bodemeister to make up for the two narrow defeats in America's Greatest Race suffered by his father, Empire Maker, and brother, Pioneerof the Nile. His male ancestors are descendants from the potent Classic winning bloodline via Fappiano. I will be the first to question out loud what several thoroughbred historians may be thinking after recently watching the grossly historical inaccurate (but inspirational story nonetheless) movie on HBO for the umpteenth time... wasn't Secretariat also foaled in Virginia?
Audley Farm Inc. in Virginia is credited as breeder of Bodemeister, the imposing $260,000 Keenland yearling purchase son of Empire Maker out of the Storm Cat mare, Untouched Talent. In two of his four career races, that is exactly what Bodemeister has been - untouched talent. He has the speed to grind his opponents into submission and the stamina to reload in the stretch. Veteran rider Mike Smith appears to be a great addition to this horse by trainer Bob Baffert, who utterly dominated the Oaklawn Park winter meet like no other trainer in its illustrious history, including D. Wayne Lukas. The silver fox won 6 of 9 entries with his California shippers in 2012 and is now 16 out of 25 lifetime at the Spa of the South, predominantly at the stakes level.
What I am really amazed by is how many "astute" handicappers are expecting a bounce race just because Bodemeister is so lightly raced and coming off three consecutive huge efforts. I took a similar stance towards a horse named Nehro last year and it cost me dearly as my long-shot pick Animal Kingdom won the race and the only exacta I had was a $2 wheel with the winner. Nehro was the obvious choice coming into last year's Derby -- he was on top of his game and had handled the class test more than adequately in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies despite his first career race just months removed on Dec. 12th. Not only has Bodemeister had two monster wins, he also got beat less than a length by the most proven horse in this 3YO crop, Creative Cause, in the San Felipe stakes in his first race beyond one mile. One could certainly make the argument that Bode is more suited for 10 furlongs of The Derby than CC based on their breeding and is still improving with each start.
But I will point out not only lightly raced Nehro from last year, who some may argue as a closer would more predictably run better in the Derby, but what about Barbaro's dominant 2006 performance and Big Brown's cakewalk with only 3 lifetime starts in 2008? Their speed favoring style turned many away in the Derby, yet they were each able to sit off a couple of horses early and draw away from the field on the far turn with their high cruising speed. Surely Mike Smith being the savvy rider he is knows not to gun Bode to the front as Bode is already accustomed to sitting off horses and has done so in two of his four career starts. With an outside post and a nice stalking trip, look for Bodemeister to wipe Apollo off the record books as the last horse to win The Derby without having run at age 2. This will be one of the final hurdles to fall, the previous "jinxes" being only two preps in current year, above 4.0 dosage index, being a gelding or filly, five+ week since last race, etc.
So my plea to my fellow handicappers is don't be an idiot like I was in the Arkansas Derby and "hope" that this clearly superior animal won't run his race on the first Saturday in May. I'd hate for you to look this gift horse in the mouth!
Audley Farm Inc. in Virginia is credited as breeder of Bodemeister, the imposing $260,000 Keenland yearling purchase son of Empire Maker out of the Storm Cat mare, Untouched Talent. In two of his four career races, that is exactly what Bodemeister has been - untouched talent. He has the speed to grind his opponents into submission and the stamina to reload in the stretch. Veteran rider Mike Smith appears to be a great addition to this horse by trainer Bob Baffert, who utterly dominated the Oaklawn Park winter meet like no other trainer in its illustrious history, including D. Wayne Lukas. The silver fox won 6 of 9 entries with his California shippers in 2012 and is now 16 out of 25 lifetime at the Spa of the South, predominantly at the stakes level.
What I am really amazed by is how many "astute" handicappers are expecting a bounce race just because Bodemeister is so lightly raced and coming off three consecutive huge efforts. I took a similar stance towards a horse named Nehro last year and it cost me dearly as my long-shot pick Animal Kingdom won the race and the only exacta I had was a $2 wheel with the winner. Nehro was the obvious choice coming into last year's Derby -- he was on top of his game and had handled the class test more than adequately in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies despite his first career race just months removed on Dec. 12th. Not only has Bodemeister had two monster wins, he also got beat less than a length by the most proven horse in this 3YO crop, Creative Cause, in the San Felipe stakes in his first race beyond one mile. One could certainly make the argument that Bode is more suited for 10 furlongs of The Derby than CC based on their breeding and is still improving with each start.
But I will point out not only lightly raced Nehro from last year, who some may argue as a closer would more predictably run better in the Derby, but what about Barbaro's dominant 2006 performance and Big Brown's cakewalk with only 3 lifetime starts in 2008? Their speed favoring style turned many away in the Derby, yet they were each able to sit off a couple of horses early and draw away from the field on the far turn with their high cruising speed. Surely Mike Smith being the savvy rider he is knows not to gun Bode to the front as Bode is already accustomed to sitting off horses and has done so in two of his four career starts. With an outside post and a nice stalking trip, look for Bodemeister to wipe Apollo off the record books as the last horse to win The Derby without having run at age 2. This will be one of the final hurdles to fall, the previous "jinxes" being only two preps in current year, above 4.0 dosage index, being a gelding or filly, five+ week since last race, etc.
So my plea to my fellow handicappers is don't be an idiot like I was in the Arkansas Derby and "hope" that this clearly superior animal won't run his race on the first Saturday in May. I'd hate for you to look this gift horse in the mouth!
February 26, 2012
Derby 138 Top Ten List - Part II
1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.
2) Creative Causeway: His third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente was fine by me, especially watching him gallop out past the wire. Two more preps should have him moving forward into the Derby rather than regressing from a tough spring training, as many of his foes will experience just to make The Derby starting field.
3) Algorithms: I leave him in my top three now assuming his scratch from Sunday's Fountain of Youth isn't a big deal. Would have loved to see how he fared vs. Union Rags is his dominating performance, but it will have to wait for the time being. Has the pedigree and talent to still get it done if he gets back on the worktab soon. The FOY scratch may put him on a softer path to Louisville (via Aqueduct).
4) Prospective: Ran a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs and was flattered by two recent starters. John Servis' Adirondack King, who ran third behind this guy at Tampa at 7 furlongs, closed well to hit the board in the "fast" division of the Southwest Stakes behind Secret Circle. Also, Neck n' Neck had a decent fourth place finish in the FOY after running behind Prospective in the Sam Davis. He comes from far back but could be a live Derby long-shot, ala Animal Kingdom last year.
5) Fed Biz: Ran a sub 1:35 mile at Santa Anita on Feb. 9th while stalking a hot pace and pouring it on in the stretch. Impeccably bred Giant's Causeway colt out of a Wild Again mare. Starting to become a buzz horse thanks to the success of Baffert's deep stable (won both divisions of Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn) but remember, you heard it here first!
6) Out of Bounds: I'll stop shy of throwing the baby out with the bathwater after Discreet Dancer's (both out of Discreet Cat) poor showing after setting a mild pace in the FOY before spitting the bit. Probably won't get the 10 furlong distance but at least he's a closer that can get a part of it. War Emblem's pedigree certainly wasn't ideal for 10 furlongs either yet he got it done in 2002. Want to see one more race before I potentially dismiss him.
7) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
8) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a nice bullet 5 furlong work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by debuting on the turf in Florida followed by a synthetic prep. With in the money showings he will earn his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate.
9)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections.
10) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. Probably comes back in the deep Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on St. Patrick's Day.
2) Creative Causeway: His third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente was fine by me, especially watching him gallop out past the wire. Two more preps should have him moving forward into the Derby rather than regressing from a tough spring training, as many of his foes will experience just to make The Derby starting field.
3) Algorithms: I leave him in my top three now assuming his scratch from Sunday's Fountain of Youth isn't a big deal. Would have loved to see how he fared vs. Union Rags is his dominating performance, but it will have to wait for the time being. Has the pedigree and talent to still get it done if he gets back on the worktab soon. The FOY scratch may put him on a softer path to Louisville (via Aqueduct).
4) Prospective: Ran a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs and was flattered by two recent starters. John Servis' Adirondack King, who ran third behind this guy at Tampa at 7 furlongs, closed well to hit the board in the "fast" division of the Southwest Stakes behind Secret Circle. Also, Neck n' Neck had a decent fourth place finish in the FOY after running behind Prospective in the Sam Davis. He comes from far back but could be a live Derby long-shot, ala Animal Kingdom last year.
5) Fed Biz: Ran a sub 1:35 mile at Santa Anita on Feb. 9th while stalking a hot pace and pouring it on in the stretch. Impeccably bred Giant's Causeway colt out of a Wild Again mare. Starting to become a buzz horse thanks to the success of Baffert's deep stable (won both divisions of Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn) but remember, you heard it here first!
6) Out of Bounds: I'll stop shy of throwing the baby out with the bathwater after Discreet Dancer's (both out of Discreet Cat) poor showing after setting a mild pace in the FOY before spitting the bit. Probably won't get the 10 furlong distance but at least he's a closer that can get a part of it. War Emblem's pedigree certainly wasn't ideal for 10 furlongs either yet he got it done in 2002. Want to see one more race before I potentially dismiss him.
7) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
8) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a nice bullet 5 furlong work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by debuting on the turf in Florida followed by a synthetic prep. With in the money showings he will earn his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate.
9)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections.
10) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. Probably comes back in the deep Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on St. Patrick's Day.
December 29, 2011
Oaklawn Park preview - the other "Spa"
Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, Caleb’s Posse, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Azeri (pictured with Mike Smith) - a who's who of Eclipse champions over the last decade all put their indelible stamp on the one mile oval framed by blooming dogwoods. Before that there were champions the likes of Althea, Sunny's Halo, Temperence Hill, Lil E. Tee, Paseana, Bayakoa, Tiffany Lass and Cigar. Over the past decade, discussions about Oaklawn Park begin and end with the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Read more on my HRN blog @ http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Oaklawn_Park_preview_the_other_Spa_123
March 20, 2011
Kentucky Derby Top 10 list - March 20
Another two weekends of prep races have come and gone, yet I am stuck in a rut with my Derby handicapping. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a flop with two bomb long-shots completing the $2,200 exacta (on a $2 bet!). Now don't get me wrong, I prefer a mid-priced horse winning here and there to spark a nice payoff. But this race outcome reminded me of the Rockamundo shocker at 100-1 in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, Calvin Borel's first major victory. At least it was a nice and sunny day at the Oldsmar, FL track with a festive crowd in attendance.
But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!
Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).
1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.
2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.
3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.
4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).
5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.
6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.
7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.
8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.
9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.
Happy Racing!
E
But the 13,000 or so present there could not compete with the 35,000 Oaklawn patrons who witnessed numerous Breeders' Cup runners this past Saturday. Preceding the Rebel Stakes, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck renewed their rivalry in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, in which Havre de Grace used her tactical speed to her advantage getting the best of the back-of-the-pack running Blind Luck on a speed favoring track. Then in the Rebel, Martin Garcia astutely put The Factor into the race early, wasn't pressured at all and was able to give him a breather until the turn for home, in which he again spurted away from the overmatched field of sophomores.
A big disappointment for me was the late scratch of Alternation after he sustained minor cuts when flipping in the starting gate prior to the race. Perhaps he could have at least tested The Factor in the stretch, who finished strongly, but still ran about a fifth of a second slower than Havre de Grace at the same distance from the previous race. Sway Away was a complete bust as he and Garret Gomez were fighting each other throughout the race. He never put in a run after having issues of his own leaving the gate, but this was not the step forward he needed. So at this point I am hoping to complete my "trifecta" of Derby preps on a positive note this weekend at the Louisiana Derby and perhaps I can wipe away my "O for 2011" dubious betting steak!
Top 10 removals: I will be tossing Brethren, Cal Nation and Sway Away. Brethren ran a dull third in the TB Derby on a track he had previously won on against two off-form horses and Cal Nation couldn’t last in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream - which time was slow comparable to other races on the card. I’ve received several comments as to why top performers such as The Factor and Soldat (both out of new speed-oriented sire War Front) have yet to crack my top 10 in spite of their obvious talent. Thus, let me remind all that this is a list of horses that can potentially WIN The Derby on May 7th, not those who are the most impressive in the 8.5 furlong or 9 furlong prep races, but may not be the best choice in the 10 furlong Derby distance. Thus, I have a tendency to avoid most colts that I perceive to be pure speed horses (learned that lesson the hard way last year with Sidney’s Candy!) or who have distance limitations at the classic distance (in my humble opinion).
1) Dialed In – As I pointed out in previous post, had a tall task against older horses and lack of pace in last 9 furlong prep race, but I believe he got more out of this than Uncle Mo’s walkover, thus he’s still my #1. Connections may have feared a “bounce” race after his huge effort two back and certainly didn’t WOW us like others. But perhaps Dialed In learned a little in his last race having to run closer to the lead, which may help him depending on Derby pace. Monarchos had a similar race in the Wood Memorial before getting back to his best running style in winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in near -record time. Expect another first or second finish in the Florida Derby in spite of pace to keep him as my top choice heading into Louisville.
2) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was last seen at the Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. Rather than running back in this Saturday’s $1 million LA Derby and wait six weeks to the big one, his connections smartly pushed back his next start to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Polytrack, where he has also performed well. Could very well be the under the radar horse for this year’s Derby.
3) Uncle Mo – After trashing owner Repole for backing out of the Tampa Bay Derby, I may have come to understand his decision after seeing the quirky finish of the TB Derby in person, where a 45-1 and 89-1 shot rounded out the exacta. There were multiple other bomb long-shots win last Saturday and a defending Breeders’ Cup champion (Pluck) run out of the money, leading to an inverse show pool (someone bet 50K to show on chalk favorite Pluck and since she didn’t hit the board most show payouts exceeded win or place payouts, a unique situation!). Still not convinced he got anything other than a glorified workout from the one-mile turn Timely Writer (half mile went in :50 and change), but should continue to move forward. The question is where he will be placed in The Derby with a stampede of 20 horses. And The Factor winning and likely Derby bound hurts Mo's chances in my pace scenario, as he will be engaged earlier at a faster cruising speed, setting things up for a horse in the 3rd or 4th wave of horses.
4) Premier Pegasus – This newcomer to my list followed up his well-beaten third place finish sprinting against The Factor and Sway Away with a diabolical stretch drive against lesser opponents last out, winning drawing away. I have always been puzzled how Fu-Peg hasn’t thrown off better runners being the complete physical specimen he was with the high price tag at auction and winning the 2000 Derby, but this year he is back on the radar. Had a son, Roman Ruler, make some noise a few years back on the west coast and is now an attractive young stud himself (he sired Rule from last year's preps, before being injured).
5) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs. Looking forward to seeing him run in person in this weekend’s $1 million Louisiana Derby against not-so-great competition. Interesting that Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel Stakes for an "easier" spot in this $1 million prep, but I agree with that decision.
6) To Honor and Serve – Was clearly a short horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but keep in mind that Super Saver began his Derby trail last year with a third at unheralded Tampa Bay Downs before running a good second to a runaway speed horse (Line of David) in the Ark. Derby before capturing the top prize in Louisville. A solid next race still places him in the elite echelon of sophomores and thus the reason for these trainers being particularly careful with prep schedules to keep their horses moving forward.
7) Jaycito – Baffert now has multiple bullets with The Factor and this distant runner-up to Premier Pegasus in his 3YO debut in the San Felipe Stakes. Came from the clouds and never even threatened the winner, but showed that he can make up some ground in the stretch and more distance should only benefit him. With all my other picks struggling, there is no reason to move him down at this point.
8) Stay Thirsty – I can see the headlines now, “The other Repole horse takes the roses…” Stablemate of Uncle Mo has been on the back page of The Derby news but keeps running better as the distance goes longer. I’m not crazy about Aqueduct as training grounds for The Derby, but this son of Bernardini has done little wrong to this point. Will either stay in NY for the Wood Memorial or head south to Gulfstream for the FL Derby, depending on what Pletcher/Repole decide to do with Mo.
9) Archarcharch – Still not convinced that the Oaklawn group is much to talk about this year, but he backed up his Southwest Stakes win with a gutsy performance racing closer to the lead than usual while being nipped for second by Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel. Should appreciate a little more ground that he’s soon to get and with a few races under his belt should be as tight as possible leading into May. Another very hot sire at the moment, with Arch siring Blame - last year's BC Classic winner who got the better of Zenyatta at the same Derby distance.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. The connections were enticed with the huge purse of the UAE Derby, also this weekend (although, thousands of miles away!). Disconcerting that he “ducked” the FOY Stakes, but with the large purse money only has to finish in the top four in the desert to qualify earnings to gain admittance in the starting gate at Louisville. We'll know soon how this works out.
Happy Racing!
E
February 22, 2011
Derby Top 10 update - Feb. 22
First of all, I must say that I had a pretty crappy weekend all around. I drove to Hot Springs for a relaxing three day weekend to witness the Southwest Stakes and get my first live taste of Derby fever 2011. By late afternoon Monday, I had cashed nary a ticket ("0 for Oaklawn" as my friends put it), three of my original top 10 picks failed to threaten in their respective races, and to top it all off one of my two Derby futures bets had already been declared off the trail due to injury! Luckily, I made it back to Dallas okay and I'm ready to lick my wounds and re-group, since the next prep race could be the one that makes me forget about all these trivial concerns.
I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...
1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.
2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!
4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.
5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.
6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.
8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!
9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.
Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E
I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...
1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.
2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!
4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.
5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.
6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.
8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!
9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.
Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E
September 28, 2010
SSSSHHHHH… A moment of silence for 1998 Kentucky Derby champ Real Quiet
The Bob Baffert trainee know as “The Fish” was killed in a freak stall accident on September 27th at age 15. While Baffert was already on the racing map in 1998 with his previous year’s Derby victor – Silver Charm, repeating the task the very next season with long-time pal Mike Pegram put a new, brash style of ownership squarely in the forefront of American thoroughbred racing. In the winner’s circle of hallowed Churchill Downs holding The Derby trophy, Pegram tipsily exclaimed, “We’re gonna be drinkin’ some beer tonight… Budweiser beer!” Mike was referring to the Anheuser-Busch distributorship owned by Robert Lewis, fellow owner to Bob Baffert with Silver Charm. After all, Pegram was the same owner who had recently named a top-priced filly sales purchase and future Eclipse Champion “Silverbulletday” after his preferred lager of choice – Coors Light.
The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.
During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.
Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.
Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.
The tragic death of Real Quiet brings the parallels of emotion in thoroughbred racing into the spotlight. Mike Pegram and his co-owners have been giddy with joy over their likely 3YO champion Lookin at Lucky, as he prepares for a Breeders’ Cup berth. Now Pegram has to say farewell to his first Champion – the colt who has come closer to a Triple Crown than any other three year-old since Affirmed swept the series way back in 1978. And while Real Quiet wasn’t considered a major success at stud (he was shuffled from KY to PA and fee reduced to $6,000), Pegram believed in his gutsy horse enough to buy several of his offspring and was rewarded in his faith by Eclipse Champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Grade I winner Pussycat Doll, two of the sire’s top three offspring by career earnings.
During the 1998 Kentucky Derby trail Real Quiet took a backseat to another Baffert juggernaut, Indian Charlie, who was on a tear of California race tracks. In addition to the precocious Indian Charlie, Real Quiet proved the best of a talented 3YO crop, such as reigning Horse of the Year and 2YO Champion Favorite Trick, speedsters Artax and Old Trieste, and Oaklawn Park’s fresh shooter, Victory Gallop. Speaking of which, to prove that the racing Gods control the fate of horse racing, it was Victory Gallop (second cousin by way of Fappiano’s sons; Quiet American begot Real Quiet, Cryptoclearance begot Victory Gallop) that cost him that elusive Triple Crown. Throw in 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Oh Mrs. Genter, I love you...) as yet another successful sire and son of Fappiano (who was himself a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector) and you have a slew of the best classic bloodlines in the world.
Most importantly, Real Quiet renewed the hope of bright-eyed horse owners and dreamers everywhere that a Derby winner could be affordable. When the hammer price stopped at just $17,000 at the 1996 Keeneland yearling sale ($500 less than Seattle Slew went for 21 years earlier), Bob Baffert had to explain his “defect” purchase to new owner Mike Pegram. Baffert told the groom to walk the horse to the men who were standing near a fence. When Mike got a look at the horse walking directly towards him, he looked at Bob open-jawed and proclaimed, “That horse looks like a fu*#ing fish!” While the legend of “The Fish” began that day in September of 1996, it will be immortalized with the caption on the burial marker… Here lies Real Quiet, winner of Kentucky Derby 124.
Brief bio follows from www.bloodhorse.com ;
Purchased at auction for $17,000 by owner Mike Pegram, Real Quiet engaged in a contentious battle with Victory Gallop in all three Triple Crown races. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux in all three events, Real Quiet defeated Victory Gallop by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet led by four lengths at the eighth pole but succumbed to Victory Gallop’s relentless drive and was beaten a nose. Despite not racing again that year, Real Quiet was voted champion 3-year-old male.
Trained throughout his career by Bob Baffert, Real Quiet also was a grade I winner in his two other years of racing. At 2, he won the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) while still eligible for non-winners other than. As a 4-year-old, he captured the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I). Shortly after the Gold Cup in June, Real Quiet suffered a fractured sprint bone in his right front leg and never raced again. He had won or placed in 17 of 20 starts and earned $3,271,802.
April 29, 2010
Derby week 136 - Finally Friday
It’s go time, baby… “Go, Baby, Go” reads the NTRA ad slogan and we’ll all be yelling that come Saturday around 5:15pm CST. I’ve watched as many replays as I can possibly watch and my eyes are bloodshot from straining in front of small print race charts and the computer screen. My dogs are barking at me to take them out, so I’ve gotta wrap this up. I must confess that I have spent more time on the betting side of the Derby this year than researching all the human interest stories out there. (Actually, I haven’t “studied” this much since taking the CFP exam years ago.) I am still bitter about that F’ing Mine That Bird last year costing me a stone-cold trifecta. I’m overdue for a winner, not having dinged the register since my Funny Cide overlay in 2003. That’s another thing about these odds to watch out for. I think Churchill Down’s handicapper – Mike Battaglia – sets some piss-poor early odds, which unfortunately has a major impact on betting strategies. The best advice I ever got was that if you’re going to lose your own money, you should at least pick who YOU think will win, not what someone else tells you!
I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.
After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]
Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.
Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”
My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!
So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!
Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.
Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.
E
I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.
After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]
Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.
Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”
My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!
So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!
Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.
Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.
E
April 28, 2010
Derby week trivia - Post Positions
Quite an ironic post position draw yesterday in that the two betting favorites in a seemingly wide open Derby drew the worst positions, see below. Many feel that the one hole is the worst spot but I can't help but think Sidney's Candy would be better off at the rail to save the ground, knowing he figures to be very close to the pace early and that there are 10 furlongs for him to maneuver around a horse or two, rather than being forced minimum 4 wide around the first turn. But the year Big Brown's camp chose the 20 post (while a couple other options were still available) people preached doom and gloom and he managed to get a fairly easy stalking trip only four wide. Several winners have come from the 15-20 post auxiliary gate over the past decade, so I guess anything is possible. Here's a look at the posts with odds, for your convenience:
1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1
Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.
This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.
Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!
Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.
If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!
1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1
Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.
This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.
Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!
Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.
If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!
April 27, 2010
Derby week trivia - Wednesday
Hump day during Derby week means two things in the Kordsmeier household; 1) post position draw and first glimpse at odds for The Derby, and 2) time to brew and age the “not-so-simple” mint infused syrup for Saturday’s Derby party. As is customary, the bartender will get an initial sample while the fermentation process takes place… very helpful when plotting hundreds of statistical samples (my own monte carlo simulation, if you will) of possible pace scenarios based on post positions. Now are you getting a sense of why I love The Derby so?
On the training front, Churchill Downs has been muddy for the last several days, forcing most of the entrants to have their last major workout on an "off" track. On Tuesday, Awesome Act drilled 4 furlongs in :48 1/5 on the slop and the expected pacesetter - Conveyance zipped 5 furlongs in :59 4/5. Inspired by these workouts, I laced up the New Balance's and labored 4 miles in :36 (errr, check that - 36 minutes!) on the Katy Trail and I was blowing hard after the work until I cooled down with a refreshing Coors Light. Have I mentioned the mint juleps?
I came across the following from the website representing thoroughbred racing, www.ntra.com, and thought you may also get a kick out of this. I’ve often stated that the months of March and April are the best months for sports fans, as we welcome back America’s pastime to the diamond (especially for Cubs fans!), NCAA college hoops are in full effect and potential Derby superstars are being formed every Saturday. This writer parallels the Derby experience with March Madness…
Top 5 reasons Triple Crown series beats March Madness by Eric Wing, NTRA Media Relations (with my emphasis added):
1. Sometimes our 16-seeds actually win. (Butler came really close this year, but Mine That Bird and Giacomo have actually taken our top prize.)
2. Our grand finale is better than yours. (The greatest two minutes in sports, bar none! And we have longer off-seasons to recover from the stress and common letdown after the Belmont - especially if we backed losers.)
3. Our "coaches" haven't forgotten how to compete with dignity. (Well, barring the Rick Dutrow and Big Brown circus of 2008 I would agree with this statement. Trainers like Baffert and Lukas have added more class as they have aged. Derby favorites such as Nafzger and Zito have always been great ambassadors for the sport.)
4. Our sport doesn't pretend that betting isn't going on. (Amen to that, brother! Many states with lotteries boast of the “economic impact” from the lottery on jobs, education funding, etc. How about the impact of the thoroughbred industry? Even at independent tracks such as Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, seasonal employment and the tourism industry swell thanks to the gambling juice (ranging from 13% on straight win-place-show bets to 20% on exotics such as exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s) that finance purse money, which in turn gives owners payback on their investment to pay the jockeys cut as well as training fees for their entire staff. It also doesn’t hurt that some people hit “paydirt” each year in The Derby. I’ll never forget in 2005 when long-shots Giacomo and Closing Argument ran first and second that sparked a superfecta that paid over $1.7 million! For the record, that was more than the owner’s (Jerry Moss of Zenyatta fame) share of the purse money for winning The Derby!)
5. Some Triple Crown TV correspondents can conduct interviews while on horseback. (I particularly enjoy the last point. What’s greater than seeing Donna Barton-Brothers or Caton Bredar with mane flying in their face capturing the first emotional exchange with the jockey who has just captured the greatest feat in sports, perhaps for the first time?!)
Trivia answer from yesterday is: “My name is Darrell, but you can call me D”… hit it Run. As a youngster, Darrell Wayne Lukas was the first person I “knew” that carried his first initial. It always struck me as odd. I even call him “D. Wayne” when I occasionally get close enough to him at a track to tell my wife I had a conversation with D. Wayne. Then I discovered that many more folks did this, from P. Allan Smith to J. Paul Getty, L. Ron Hubbard to P. Diddy. There’s something about this method that resonates with me. It seems to me that in a subliminal way it may help people become well known and move up in the world to achieve great fortune and fame. I think I’ll name my first racehorse bought at auction “A. Super Star” so he will have a better chance on the track, especially if his sire happens to be Super Saver! By the way, for those horse novices, Todd Pletcher plied his trade under “the master” D. Wayne (who started his Derby career with an equally pathetic 0 for 12 before busting out with a filly – Winning Colors ‘88) for 7 years before going out on his own, and look at him now!
On the training front, Churchill Downs has been muddy for the last several days, forcing most of the entrants to have their last major workout on an "off" track. On Tuesday, Awesome Act drilled 4 furlongs in :48 1/5 on the slop and the expected pacesetter - Conveyance zipped 5 furlongs in :59 4/5. Inspired by these workouts, I laced up the New Balance's and labored 4 miles in :36 (errr, check that - 36 minutes!) on the Katy Trail and I was blowing hard after the work until I cooled down with a refreshing Coors Light. Have I mentioned the mint juleps?
I came across the following from the website representing thoroughbred racing, www.ntra.com, and thought you may also get a kick out of this. I’ve often stated that the months of March and April are the best months for sports fans, as we welcome back America’s pastime to the diamond (especially for Cubs fans!), NCAA college hoops are in full effect and potential Derby superstars are being formed every Saturday. This writer parallels the Derby experience with March Madness…
Top 5 reasons Triple Crown series beats March Madness by Eric Wing, NTRA Media Relations (with my emphasis added):
1. Sometimes our 16-seeds actually win. (Butler came really close this year, but Mine That Bird and Giacomo have actually taken our top prize.)
2. Our grand finale is better than yours. (The greatest two minutes in sports, bar none! And we have longer off-seasons to recover from the stress and common letdown after the Belmont - especially if we backed losers.)
3. Our "coaches" haven't forgotten how to compete with dignity. (Well, barring the Rick Dutrow and Big Brown circus of 2008 I would agree with this statement. Trainers like Baffert and Lukas have added more class as they have aged. Derby favorites such as Nafzger and Zito have always been great ambassadors for the sport.)
4. Our sport doesn't pretend that betting isn't going on. (Amen to that, brother! Many states with lotteries boast of the “economic impact” from the lottery on jobs, education funding, etc. How about the impact of the thoroughbred industry? Even at independent tracks such as Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, seasonal employment and the tourism industry swell thanks to the gambling juice (ranging from 13% on straight win-place-show bets to 20% on exotics such as exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s) that finance purse money, which in turn gives owners payback on their investment to pay the jockeys cut as well as training fees for their entire staff. It also doesn’t hurt that some people hit “paydirt” each year in The Derby. I’ll never forget in 2005 when long-shots Giacomo and Closing Argument ran first and second that sparked a superfecta that paid over $1.7 million! For the record, that was more than the owner’s (Jerry Moss of Zenyatta fame) share of the purse money for winning The Derby!)
5. Some Triple Crown TV correspondents can conduct interviews while on horseback. (I particularly enjoy the last point. What’s greater than seeing Donna Barton-Brothers or Caton Bredar with mane flying in their face capturing the first emotional exchange with the jockey who has just captured the greatest feat in sports, perhaps for the first time?!)
Trivia answer from yesterday is: “My name is Darrell, but you can call me D”… hit it Run. As a youngster, Darrell Wayne Lukas was the first person I “knew” that carried his first initial. It always struck me as odd. I even call him “D. Wayne” when I occasionally get close enough to him at a track to tell my wife I had a conversation with D. Wayne. Then I discovered that many more folks did this, from P. Allan Smith to J. Paul Getty, L. Ron Hubbard to P. Diddy. There’s something about this method that resonates with me. It seems to me that in a subliminal way it may help people become well known and move up in the world to achieve great fortune and fame. I think I’ll name my first racehorse bought at auction “A. Super Star” so he will have a better chance on the track, especially if his sire happens to be Super Saver! By the way, for those horse novices, Todd Pletcher plied his trade under “the master” D. Wayne (who started his Derby career with an equally pathetic 0 for 12 before busting out with a filly – Winning Colors ‘88) for 7 years before going out on his own, and look at him now!
April 26, 2010
Derby week trivia 136 - Tuesday
More drama from the Pletcher camp on Monday as he calls an audible and pulls out WinStar Farm's speedster Rule. This will definitely have an impact on the pace of The Derby, which many astute handicappers are calling for blistering early fractions. I'll give you my perspective on likely pace scenario on Friday when I pick my top 3 selections. However, in yanking Rule (watch how this horse tired in the FL Derby at 9 furlongs and I say this was a good move!) Todd replaced him with his filly, Devil May Care.
Until recently, I would have easily discounted the filly's entry. I backed the monster filly Excellent Meeting in the 1999 Derby (Charismatic) and although she finished a respectable 5th it discouraged me from betting fillies in this particular race. Hence, no winning tickets when Eight Belles ran a courageous second to Big Brown in 2008. I was shocked as Rags to Riches out-muscled Champion Curlin down the lane in the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes. But for the record, I did key Rachel Alexandra in last year’s Preakness Stakes when she was clearly superior. (Sidebar: Rachel is working up a storm and will be running on Friday's Kentucky Oaks undercard -- not that I'm paying attention to a Jess Jackson owned horse!) But these fillies had dominated their division and each strung together a solid series of prep races. Devil May Care, on the other hand, beat only 5 fillies at Gulfstream Park in her only victory this year, while running a dull 5th in her seasonal bow at the Fairgrounds. Someone out there please comment on why I should be afraid of the Devil in my exotics.
The answer to yesterday's trivia question was Eddie Delahoussaye, the original cajun bush track extraordinaire jockey who paved the way (along with Randy Romero) for current greats including Kent "squeaky" Desourmeaux, Robby Albarado (of Curlin fame) and Calvin Bo-rel, who garnered the most votes. I guess there is something to the recency effect, since Calvin has been front and center since his Derby triumph aboard Street Sense in '07 and obviously with Mine That Bird last year. Of course, Ron Turcotte was the other jockey to win consecutive runnings when he piloted Penny Chenery's Riva Ridge to Derby glory in 1972 followed by his lesser-known stablemate in '73, Secretariat (just kidding -- by the way, get ready for Diane Lane's portrayal of the first woman of racing in the motion picture "Secretariat" coming to a theatre near you on Oct. 8, 2010).
Until recently, I would have easily discounted the filly's entry. I backed the monster filly Excellent Meeting in the 1999 Derby (Charismatic) and although she finished a respectable 5th it discouraged me from betting fillies in this particular race. Hence, no winning tickets when Eight Belles ran a courageous second to Big Brown in 2008. I was shocked as Rags to Riches out-muscled Champion Curlin down the lane in the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes. But for the record, I did key Rachel Alexandra in last year’s Preakness Stakes when she was clearly superior. (Sidebar: Rachel is working up a storm and will be running on Friday's Kentucky Oaks undercard -- not that I'm paying attention to a Jess Jackson owned horse!) But these fillies had dominated their division and each strung together a solid series of prep races. Devil May Care, on the other hand, beat only 5 fillies at Gulfstream Park in her only victory this year, while running a dull 5th in her seasonal bow at the Fairgrounds. Someone out there please comment on why I should be afraid of the Devil in my exotics.
The answer to yesterday's trivia question was Eddie Delahoussaye, the original cajun bush track extraordinaire jockey who paved the way (along with Randy Romero) for current greats including Kent "squeaky" Desourmeaux, Robby Albarado (of Curlin fame) and Calvin Bo-rel, who garnered the most votes. I guess there is something to the recency effect, since Calvin has been front and center since his Derby triumph aboard Street Sense in '07 and obviously with Mine That Bird last year. Of course, Ron Turcotte was the other jockey to win consecutive runnings when he piloted Penny Chenery's Riva Ridge to Derby glory in 1972 followed by his lesser-known stablemate in '73, Secretariat (just kidding -- by the way, get ready for Diane Lane's portrayal of the first woman of racing in the motion picture "Secretariat" coming to a theatre near you on Oct. 8, 2010).
April 14, 2010
Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap
Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.
My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).
2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.
3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.
4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.
5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.
6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)
7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!
8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.
9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!
10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.
March 29, 2010
April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update
Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.
I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!
1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.
3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.
4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.
5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.
6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.
7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.
8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!
10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.
March 18, 2010
Rebel Stakes recap and first "final" Derby prep this Saturday
It's hard to believe that just one week after the return to the track of several top 10 Derby prospects, a few will be making their last tune-up race in Saturday's Florida Derby, six weeks from the "big dance" (it is NCAA March madness after all!).
I've been chomping at the bit to discuss Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where I met up with a raucous crowd that is sure to become the next big annual event. What a perfect weekend in Hot Springs, when the dogwoods were yielding their virgin blooms and the track was abuzz with electricity, which would ultimately be unplugged with the shocking loss of Rachel A. later in the day. Lookin At Lucky "looks" like a champion, well maybe because he was last year's two year-old champion. But what I mean is that I can clearly see him in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May with the familiar silver haired Bob Baffert high fiving his beer drinking owner friend, Mike Pegram, in the same silks as Sssshhhhh, Real Quiet, claimed The Derby with back in 1998. Let's hope this first race off the shelf won't take too much out of the champ. And how about that Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise? What a game effort in defeat in also his first effort of 2010. Although, I still get leary with the top of his bloodline since he seems to be coming up a tad short in all of his distance races. Dublin really disappointed me in that I thought this would be his break-out race. While he did make a big move approaching the turn, he flattened out into the stretch which also leads me to believe his best distance is 7 furlongs to one mile.
At Santa Anita they had a bit of an upset with Sidney's Candy (recall brother Chocolate Candy from last spring?) and Interactif taking the win-place over Caracortado and American Lion. Meanwhile at the Tampa Bay Derby it was an ugly race with the top four horses - including my Super Saver - trading places all around the racetrack. Many people are jumping on the winner's - Odysseus - bandwagon, but I'm not sure about this one even after his 15 length romp leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither or these races impressed me near as much as the Rebel, and the Beyer speed figures back me up on this one.
This Derby is shaping up with more speed than any of recent memory. I'm not talking about the blazing speed of Songandaprayer or Smoke Glacken, but rather many of the top prospects seem hell bent on getting the lead and trying to dictate pace. Perhaps it seems this way since Todd Pletcher trains about half of this year's three year-olds! But seriously, did anyone else see Super Saver's race at Tampa and watch that horse spurt away from the field in the opening strides, only to lose by a length at the wire? Having natural or tactical speed is one thing, but I'll never understand gunning a horse to the front in a 9 furlong race. Oh well, the point of all this is that I am giving particular consideration to those who are comfortable having some dirt splashed in their face and routinely pick up horses in the stretch. I feel somewhat burned last year with Friesan Fire (even though Pioneerof the Nile was my top pick with a nice place finish) after he broke poorly and was thus "Brooks & Dunn" due to his running style.
Without further delay, here is my latest and greatest top 10 list heading into the Florida Derby; two defections with American Lion and Dublin.
1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial for better spacing leading into Louisville.
2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt.
3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time.
4) Rule - Speedball now the likely favorite for the Florida Derby this Saturday. Perhaps the six weeks will keep his tempo level.
5) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to 'Lucky.
6) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give one more try.
7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.
8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Truest closer of the bunch!
9) Radiohead - This diminutive lead pony comes from the same connections as Big Brown. Clearly, this one is not being doped up by Rick Dutrow, but he recently wore down much larger horses in a 1 mile race at Gulfstream and may upset in the Florida Derby.
10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.
Be sure to update your WinStar Farm Fantasy Stable for the three horse addition by tomorrow if you haven't already. I'd use Radiohead in that pool as a sleeper!
I've been chomping at the bit to discuss Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where I met up with a raucous crowd that is sure to become the next big annual event. What a perfect weekend in Hot Springs, when the dogwoods were yielding their virgin blooms and the track was abuzz with electricity, which would ultimately be unplugged with the shocking loss of Rachel A. later in the day. Lookin At Lucky "looks" like a champion, well maybe because he was last year's two year-old champion. But what I mean is that I can clearly see him in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May with the familiar silver haired Bob Baffert high fiving his beer drinking owner friend, Mike Pegram, in the same silks as Sssshhhhh, Real Quiet, claimed The Derby with back in 1998. Let's hope this first race off the shelf won't take too much out of the champ. And how about that Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise? What a game effort in defeat in also his first effort of 2010. Although, I still get leary with the top of his bloodline since he seems to be coming up a tad short in all of his distance races. Dublin really disappointed me in that I thought this would be his break-out race. While he did make a big move approaching the turn, he flattened out into the stretch which also leads me to believe his best distance is 7 furlongs to one mile.
At Santa Anita they had a bit of an upset with Sidney's Candy (recall brother Chocolate Candy from last spring?) and Interactif taking the win-place over Caracortado and American Lion. Meanwhile at the Tampa Bay Derby it was an ugly race with the top four horses - including my Super Saver - trading places all around the racetrack. Many people are jumping on the winner's - Odysseus - bandwagon, but I'm not sure about this one even after his 15 length romp leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither or these races impressed me near as much as the Rebel, and the Beyer speed figures back me up on this one.
This Derby is shaping up with more speed than any of recent memory. I'm not talking about the blazing speed of Songandaprayer or Smoke Glacken, but rather many of the top prospects seem hell bent on getting the lead and trying to dictate pace. Perhaps it seems this way since Todd Pletcher trains about half of this year's three year-olds! But seriously, did anyone else see Super Saver's race at Tampa and watch that horse spurt away from the field in the opening strides, only to lose by a length at the wire? Having natural or tactical speed is one thing, but I'll never understand gunning a horse to the front in a 9 furlong race. Oh well, the point of all this is that I am giving particular consideration to those who are comfortable having some dirt splashed in their face and routinely pick up horses in the stretch. I feel somewhat burned last year with Friesan Fire (even though Pioneerof the Nile was my top pick with a nice place finish) after he broke poorly and was thus "Brooks & Dunn" due to his running style.
Without further delay, here is my latest and greatest top 10 list heading into the Florida Derby; two defections with American Lion and Dublin.
1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial for better spacing leading into Louisville.
2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt.
3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time.
4) Rule - Speedball now the likely favorite for the Florida Derby this Saturday. Perhaps the six weeks will keep his tempo level.
5) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to 'Lucky.
6) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give one more try.
7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.
8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Truest closer of the bunch!
9) Radiohead - This diminutive lead pony comes from the same connections as Big Brown. Clearly, this one is not being doped up by Rick Dutrow, but he recently wore down much larger horses in a 1 mile race at Gulfstream and may upset in the Florida Derby.
10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.
Be sure to update your WinStar Farm Fantasy Stable for the three horse addition by tomorrow if you haven't already. I'd use Radiohead in that pool as a sleeper!
February 28, 2010
Derby Top 10 Ranking #2
Sorry for the delay in posting... I've had 5 trips over the past two weeks. However, one of those was well worth the travel time as I saw Eskendereya crush a solid Fountain of Youth field in North Miami Beach. Gulfstream Park has been getting their share of talented three year-olds the past few years (Barbaro '06 and Big Brown '08) but neither were this impressive! What I like the most about a performance like this is that it occured with typical pace figures for the split times, meaning it very likely can be duplicated. We'll see if he keeps his A game in the Florida Derby in three weeks.
I was actually at Gulfstream to see a friend and co-contributor to my blog in previous years, Clay Sanders, who's racing syndicate saddled Positive Split to a 7th place finish in the FOY after chasing the Big E for 7 furlongs. Note to you handicappers: P' Split will be dangerous in future races at a mile or less at a nice price!
Three of my previous top 10 colts have still yet to run this season, so I'll keep them on the tally albeit with lower ranks. I'm only discarding one - #3 Buddy's Saint - due to his no-show as the 9-5 favorite, although there is no doubt his chances were compromised having to check mightily into the first turn. Still, I begrudgingly had him listed in the first place and now have an "excuse" to add another Oaklawn runner - Dublin. Here's my new top 10 as of March 1st:
1) Eskendereya - Big plus was his early January one mile allowance race, which will give him 3 races under his belt (all dirt) heading into Churchill. Looking for a first or second in the FL Derby.
2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a ho-hum work but Baffert knows when to crank them up.
3) Super Saver - Pletcher charge now likely to debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel... yes!
4) Dublin - Huge move for 2nd in Southwest Stakes for speedy son of Afleet Alex, who I believe was a superb three year-old colt. Perfect style for Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and has been tearing up Oaklawn Park in works all year long now that he can actually breathe!
5) American Lion - I'm leaving him in original spot after dueling with Tiz Chrome and getting passed in stretch over Santa Anita synthetic surface that truly favors closers. Fastest time of the meet at 1 1/16 miles.
6) Rule - Grandson of 200o Derby winner Fu-Peg has stamina in breeding. Question is can they harness his speed in the Lane's End?
7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.
8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Apparently, he's a head case, but weren't we all at that age?!
9) Noble's Promise - Speedy bullet work gearing up for 2010 debut in Florida.
10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.
Happy Racing!
I was actually at Gulfstream to see a friend and co-contributor to my blog in previous years, Clay Sanders, who's racing syndicate saddled Positive Split to a 7th place finish in the FOY after chasing the Big E for 7 furlongs. Note to you handicappers: P' Split will be dangerous in future races at a mile or less at a nice price!
Three of my previous top 10 colts have still yet to run this season, so I'll keep them on the tally albeit with lower ranks. I'm only discarding one - #3 Buddy's Saint - due to his no-show as the 9-5 favorite, although there is no doubt his chances were compromised having to check mightily into the first turn. Still, I begrudgingly had him listed in the first place and now have an "excuse" to add another Oaklawn runner - Dublin. Here's my new top 10 as of March 1st:
1) Eskendereya - Big plus was his early January one mile allowance race, which will give him 3 races under his belt (all dirt) heading into Churchill. Looking for a first or second in the FL Derby.
2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a ho-hum work but Baffert knows when to crank them up.
3) Super Saver - Pletcher charge now likely to debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel... yes!
4) Dublin - Huge move for 2nd in Southwest Stakes for speedy son of Afleet Alex, who I believe was a superb three year-old colt. Perfect style for Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and has been tearing up Oaklawn Park in works all year long now that he can actually breathe!
5) American Lion - I'm leaving him in original spot after dueling with Tiz Chrome and getting passed in stretch over Santa Anita synthetic surface that truly favors closers. Fastest time of the meet at 1 1/16 miles.
6) Rule - Grandson of 200o Derby winner Fu-Peg has stamina in breeding. Question is can they harness his speed in the Lane's End?
7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.
8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Apparently, he's a head case, but weren't we all at that age?!
9) Noble's Promise - Speedy bullet work gearing up for 2010 debut in Florida.
10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.
Happy Racing!
February 8, 2010
2010 Derby Trail
In just under three months a new Derby champ will be crowned. And there's a strong probability that horse has yet to race this calendar year. So there is a lot that can - and will - happen on this Derby trail, just as there is every year. But I wanted to get the chatter started before this weekend's first series of major regional prep races go postward (Robert Lewis @ Santa Anita and Sam Davis Stakes @ Tampa Bay on Saturday followed by the Southwest Mile @ Oaklawn and San Vicente @ SA on Monday).
In addition to posting wrap-ups each Monday following the major 3YO racing weekends leading up to Derby 136, I will also launch my top 10 Derby colts. Since I had a friend in Vegas for the Super Bowl, I studied up over the weekend to place a few futures bets (thanks J-Bern!). So without further delay, let's get Derby season 136 crancked up...
1) Lookin At Lucky - I got on Pioneerof The Nile early last year and rode him to a solid 2nd place Derby finish. Baffert is looking good again with this versatile colt and looks to follow his proven formula of 2 Derby preps while getting a peak effort on the first Saturday in May.
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
3) Buddy's Saint - Seems to be the "it" horse but perhaps a little early in the game. I'm waiting to see if he can duplicate those Big A performances (the quirky Aqueduct track historically leads to huge margins of victory) at Gulfstream. But after yesterday's game, who dat talkin bout beatin dem Saints?!
4) Jackson Bend - Backed up his Calder domination with a nice place in the Holy Bull. We'll see if his obscure breeding can hold up through the Derby grind.
5) American Lion - One of many live runners for the WinStar Farms group from Dallas. His presidential name is certainly worthy of being engraved on The Derby trophy.
6) Drosselmeyer - Speaking of names, this guy gets my vote - sounds like an old fraternity nickname of mine. Has a solid race foundation and a proven sire in Distorted Humor (Funny Cide in 2003).
7) Eskendereya - Yikes, don't make me say this name! Been running against the best and from the potent Storm Cat - Seattle Slew lines. Familiar silks of owner Zayat, who had Pioneerof The Nile last year.
8) Rule - Front running type, so who knows if he can learn to harness his speed. But Pletcher places an emphasis on speed and may have a plan for this one.
9) Noble's Promise - Well traveled McPeek charge never has run a bad one, including a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.
10) Connemara - A lovely western Ireland region where Atlantic salmon, Guinness and craic are as common as railbirds at a New York racetrack. The horse is a fairly talented runner in California. I visited this place on my honeymoon and if he were to win The Derby, I've the funds for a return trip. Erin Go Bragh!
In addition to posting wrap-ups each Monday following the major 3YO racing weekends leading up to Derby 136, I will also launch my top 10 Derby colts. Since I had a friend in Vegas for the Super Bowl, I studied up over the weekend to place a few futures bets (thanks J-Bern!). So without further delay, let's get Derby season 136 crancked up...
1) Lookin At Lucky - I got on Pioneerof The Nile early last year and rode him to a solid 2nd place Derby finish. Baffert is looking good again with this versatile colt and looks to follow his proven formula of 2 Derby preps while getting a peak effort on the first Saturday in May.
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
3) Buddy's Saint - Seems to be the "it" horse but perhaps a little early in the game. I'm waiting to see if he can duplicate those Big A performances (the quirky Aqueduct track historically leads to huge margins of victory) at Gulfstream. But after yesterday's game, who dat talkin bout beatin dem Saints?!
4) Jackson Bend - Backed up his Calder domination with a nice place in the Holy Bull. We'll see if his obscure breeding can hold up through the Derby grind.
5) American Lion - One of many live runners for the WinStar Farms group from Dallas. His presidential name is certainly worthy of being engraved on The Derby trophy.
6) Drosselmeyer - Speaking of names, this guy gets my vote - sounds like an old fraternity nickname of mine. Has a solid race foundation and a proven sire in Distorted Humor (Funny Cide in 2003).
7) Eskendereya - Yikes, don't make me say this name! Been running against the best and from the potent Storm Cat - Seattle Slew lines. Familiar silks of owner Zayat, who had Pioneerof The Nile last year.
8) Rule - Front running type, so who knows if he can learn to harness his speed. But Pletcher places an emphasis on speed and may have a plan for this one.
9) Noble's Promise - Well traveled McPeek charge never has run a bad one, including a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.
10) Connemara - A lovely western Ireland region where Atlantic salmon, Guinness and craic are as common as railbirds at a New York racetrack. The horse is a fairly talented runner in California. I visited this place on my honeymoon and if he were to win The Derby, I've the funds for a return trip. Erin Go Bragh!
April 24, 2009
Quality Road... say it ain't so!
Just eight days prior to the 135th Run for the Roses, major news hit the backstretch and personally threw a major wrench in my handicapping. Quality Road has suffered a new quarter crack on his right front hoof, although, reportedly not as severe as his last one that split on his right rear during his Florida Derby triumph. With Big Brown last year and now this horse, "quarter crack" is giving "stimulus" a push for the most quoted word(s) over the past year -- at least in my world. At worst, he'll be declared out of the race over the weekend and perhaps be mended in time for the classics to follow, or likely by Saratoga's Travers Stakes. At best, his last scheduled workout will be pushed back to Sunday or Monday, not the optimal approach in training regimen for the biggest race of his life!
If he indeed scratches in the coming days, that is a bad thing for all bettors. If you planned on tossing the son of Elusive Quality due to speed/distance concerns, now your horse will be bet down to lower odds. On the flip side, if you liked this horse (like me) and planned on keying him in the exotics, it's time to go back to the drawing board. Even if he gets in the race there will be lingering doubts that will shatter confidence at the betting windows... the VERY LAST thing you want when trying to whittle down a 20 horse field!
So - true to form - we have our first official Derby drama. There are usually one or two candidates that suffer such a fate during the final workout or days leading up to The Derby, so let's hope all else remains calm over the weekend. As always, I'll be keeping you posted and remember -- Derby trivia begins Monday!
Happy Racing.
If he indeed scratches in the coming days, that is a bad thing for all bettors. If you planned on tossing the son of Elusive Quality due to speed/distance concerns, now your horse will be bet down to lower odds. On the flip side, if you liked this horse (like me) and planned on keying him in the exotics, it's time to go back to the drawing board. Even if he gets in the race there will be lingering doubts that will shatter confidence at the betting windows... the VERY LAST thing you want when trying to whittle down a 20 horse field!
So - true to form - we have our first official Derby drama. There are usually one or two candidates that suffer such a fate during the final workout or days leading up to The Derby, so let's hope all else remains calm over the weekend. As always, I'll be keeping you posted and remember -- Derby trivia begins Monday!
Happy Racing.
April 12, 2009
Papa Clem relishes Easter in Arkansas
The worst kept secret on the Oaklawn Park backstretch last week was that Old Fashioned could not rate. Trainer Gary Stute used this information to his advantage as he and jockey Rafael Bejarano changed tactics and brought Papa Clem off the pace to capture the 73rd running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby. The colt still eligible for a NW1/X finally recorded his break-through victory in an easier spot after chasing such stars as Pioneer of the Nile in California and Friesan Fire in Louisiana.
That was not an attempt to discount the Derby field or runner-up, Old Fashioned, who again laid down zippy fractions while staying into the bit in the ninth furlong to finish a determined second. But later that evening trainer Larry Jones was dealt another blow as Old Fashioned was found to have a broken knee and will likely never race again. That leaves stablemate Friesan Fire as his last hope prior to retirement to capture the run for the roses after two runner-up finishes with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Lightly raced Summer Bird picked up the pieces for the show spot, meaning that Papa Clem will likely be the lone representative from Arkansas in Louisville.
In the other major final prep at Keeneland, the $20,000 claimer from last May - General Quarters - was a surprise winner of The Blue Grass Stakes over favorite Hold Me Back and fellow long-shot (and my pick) Massone. Theregoesjojo and Terrain threw in clunkers to put an end to their Derby dreams.
So with most if not all of the projected Derby starters now primed for the big one, that makes Quality Road the leader in the clubhouse (it is Masters Sunday, after all!). Even though the colt developed a slight quarter crack in his Florida Derby triumph, apparently it is not as severe as Big Brown's hoof problems from a year ago, which obviously didn't slow him down. Many of you have heard me talk about "key races" early on The Derby trail. It's easy to look back and circle the February 7th Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita as such a race, where Papa Clem finished just behind Pioneer of the Nile and a length ahead of I Want Revenge. Neither of those horses have lost again, so it's going to be tough to try to separate these three come the first Saturday in May!
Hope you all had a blessed Easter.
That was not an attempt to discount the Derby field or runner-up, Old Fashioned, who again laid down zippy fractions while staying into the bit in the ninth furlong to finish a determined second. But later that evening trainer Larry Jones was dealt another blow as Old Fashioned was found to have a broken knee and will likely never race again. That leaves stablemate Friesan Fire as his last hope prior to retirement to capture the run for the roses after two runner-up finishes with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Lightly raced Summer Bird picked up the pieces for the show spot, meaning that Papa Clem will likely be the lone representative from Arkansas in Louisville.
In the other major final prep at Keeneland, the $20,000 claimer from last May - General Quarters - was a surprise winner of The Blue Grass Stakes over favorite Hold Me Back and fellow long-shot (and my pick) Massone. Theregoesjojo and Terrain threw in clunkers to put an end to their Derby dreams.
So with most if not all of the projected Derby starters now primed for the big one, that makes Quality Road the leader in the clubhouse (it is Masters Sunday, after all!). Even though the colt developed a slight quarter crack in his Florida Derby triumph, apparently it is not as severe as Big Brown's hoof problems from a year ago, which obviously didn't slow him down. Many of you have heard me talk about "key races" early on The Derby trail. It's easy to look back and circle the February 7th Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita as such a race, where Papa Clem finished just behind Pioneer of the Nile and a length ahead of I Want Revenge. Neither of those horses have lost again, so it's going to be tough to try to separate these three come the first Saturday in May!
Hope you all had a blessed Easter.
April 5, 2009
Too many "favorites" with 3 preps to go!
Three major prep races were run on Saturday with three favorites winning -- all with authority! Pioneer of the Nile deserves top billing after bringing Baffert his 5th Santa Anita Derby win, not only based on his last two victories over Santa Anita's cushion track, but particularly three races back when he defeated I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, sending those to weaker competition to the East and South, respectively. Papa Clem had a nice second to Friesan Fire in the LA Derby and is up next Saturday in the AR Derby at Oaklawn while I Want Revenge completed his thrashing of Aqueduct foes on Saturday with a flat-footed start and stretch impeded flourish to claim the Wood Memorial.
Elsewhere on Saturday, Musket Man backed up his Tampa Bay Derby score with a victory in Hawthorne's Illinois Derby, a race that War Emblem won in 2002 while coming into The Derby under the radar. Even though this one has a sprinter's pedigree, there's something about this late blooming colt that intrigues me.
So if that's not enough of a stellar cast, let me back up 2 weeks ago when Quality Road delivered the record performance I expected of him in the Florida Derby while outclassing Dunkirk, to clearly establish himself as the colt to beat on May 2nd. Although, Dunkirk proponents will lament the fact that the Gulfstream Park dirt track produced three stakes records on a day that tended to favor speed. Even though Quality Road wasn't on the lead, he was a close second most of the way while Dunkirk loomed towards the back of the pack being a closer. Another duo who made some noise in Dubai were Godolphin owned Regal Ransom and Desert Party, who finished about a furlong ahead of the best of the rest in the UAE Derby.
So at this time, I would have to say that Quality Road and Pioneer of the Nile are the leaders in the clubhouse, with I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire clipping at their heels. Old Fashioned can put his name back into the favorite discussion (especially with Larry Jones as trainer) with a win in the Arkansas Derby this coming Saturday. As I anticipated, with these others winning impressively closer to The Derby, it seems as though Friesan Fire is already the forgotten horse. An example is Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen rating, where he has slid from #2 to #5 over the past three weeks while training up to The Derby. With many of these other horses running extremely fast races at or near the pace, this year's Derby pace scenario is shaping up to be impossible to handicap. It's a matter of how the trainers and jockeys may be changing tactics based on their post position draw. Do we really have to wait FOUR MORE WEEKS???
Elsewhere on Saturday, Musket Man backed up his Tampa Bay Derby score with a victory in Hawthorne's Illinois Derby, a race that War Emblem won in 2002 while coming into The Derby under the radar. Even though this one has a sprinter's pedigree, there's something about this late blooming colt that intrigues me.
So if that's not enough of a stellar cast, let me back up 2 weeks ago when Quality Road delivered the record performance I expected of him in the Florida Derby while outclassing Dunkirk, to clearly establish himself as the colt to beat on May 2nd. Although, Dunkirk proponents will lament the fact that the Gulfstream Park dirt track produced three stakes records on a day that tended to favor speed. Even though Quality Road wasn't on the lead, he was a close second most of the way while Dunkirk loomed towards the back of the pack being a closer. Another duo who made some noise in Dubai were Godolphin owned Regal Ransom and Desert Party, who finished about a furlong ahead of the best of the rest in the UAE Derby.
So at this time, I would have to say that Quality Road and Pioneer of the Nile are the leaders in the clubhouse, with I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire clipping at their heels. Old Fashioned can put his name back into the favorite discussion (especially with Larry Jones as trainer) with a win in the Arkansas Derby this coming Saturday. As I anticipated, with these others winning impressively closer to The Derby, it seems as though Friesan Fire is already the forgotten horse. An example is Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen rating, where he has slid from #2 to #5 over the past three weeks while training up to The Derby. With many of these other horses running extremely fast races at or near the pace, this year's Derby pace scenario is shaping up to be impossible to handicap. It's a matter of how the trainers and jockeys may be changing tactics based on their post position draw. Do we really have to wait FOUR MORE WEEKS???
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