Bodemeister romps in Ark Derby, Unbridled potential

Vindication was a son of Seattle Slew who was voted champion two year-old colt in 2002. But there is another sort of vindication brewing about now. That is the goal of Bodemeister to make up for the two narrow defeats in America's Greatest Race suffered by his father, Empire Maker, and brother, Pioneerof the Nile. His male ancestors are descendants from the potent Classic winning bloodline via Fappiano. I will be the first to question out loud what several thoroughbred historians may be thinking after recently watching the grossly historical inaccurate (but inspirational story nonetheless) movie on HBO for the umpteenth time... wasn't Secretariat also foaled in Virginia?

Audley Farm Inc. in Virginia is credited as breeder of Bodemeister, the imposing $260,000 Keenland yearling purchase son of Empire Maker out of the Storm Cat mare, Untouched Talent. In two of his four career races, that is exactly what Bodemeister has been - untouched talent. He has the speed to grind his opponents into submission and the stamina to reload in the stretch. Veteran rider Mike Smith appears to be a great addition to this horse by trainer Bob Baffert, who utterly dominated the Oaklawn Park winter meet like no other trainer in its illustrious history, including D. Wayne Lukas. The silver fox won 6 of 9 entries with his California shippers in 2012 and is now 16 out of 25 lifetime at the Spa of the South, predominantly at the stakes level.

What I am really amazed by is how many "astute" handicappers are expecting a bounce race just because Bodemeister is so lightly raced and coming off three consecutive huge efforts. I took a similar stance towards a horse named Nehro last year and it cost me dearly as my long-shot pick Animal Kingdom won the race and the only exacta I had was a $2 wheel with the winner. Nehro was the obvious choice coming into last year's Derby -- he was on top of his game and had handled the class test more than adequately in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies despite his first career race just months removed on Dec. 12th. Not only has Bodemeister had two monster wins, he also got beat less than a length by the most proven horse in this 3YO crop, Creative Cause, in the San Felipe stakes in his first race beyond one mile. One could certainly make the argument that Bode is more suited for 10 furlongs of The Derby than CC based on their breeding and is still improving with each start.

But I will point out not only lightly raced Nehro from last year, who some may argue as a closer would more predictably run better in the Derby, but what about Barbaro's dominant 2006 performance and Big Brown's cakewalk with only 3 lifetime starts in 2008? Their speed favoring style turned many away in the Derby, yet they were each able to sit off a couple of horses early and draw away from the field on the far turn with their high cruising speed. Surely Mike Smith being the savvy rider he is knows not to gun Bode to the front as Bode is already accustomed to sitting off horses and has done so in two of his four career starts. With an outside post and a nice stalking trip, look for Bodemeister to wipe Apollo off the record books as the last horse to win The Derby without having run at age 2. This will be one of the final hurdles to fall, the previous "jinxes" being only two preps in current year, above 4.0 dosage index, being a gelding or filly, five+ week since last race, etc.

So my plea to my fellow handicappers is don't be an idiot like I was in the Arkansas Derby and "hope" that this clearly superior animal won't run his race on the first Saturday in May. I'd hate for you to look this gift horse in the mouth!

Arkansas Derby Day hunches

Oaklawn has a big day in store for the Arkansas fans (who need a distraction after this Petrino mess), with three graded stakes races on the final card of the meet. In the Count Fleet sprint, Izzy Rules looks to tower over the field, but former $4,000 claimer (that's only four thousand!!) Outta Tune will try to play the spoiler role in this one. Sometimes, speed knows no class boundaries, like on yesterday's program where a $6,250 claiming race went several ticks faster for 6 furlongs than an allowance!

The Oaklawn Handicap has perhaps the deepest field since Cigar won the 1994 edition, with the likes of Nehro (looking for his first graded victory after playing seconditis in last year's Derby trail), Win Willy, Hymn Book, Alternation and Ron the Greek. Look for Alternation and perhaps longer priced Yawanna Twist to take advantage of the lack of pace over the speed favoring Oaklawn strip.

And finally the 76th running of the Arkansas Derby, where I am predicting an upset of a monumental proportion -- just not sure which longshots will get to the wire first. I like Cozzetti and Najjaar both at 15-1 on the morning line, but the unheralded shipper, Isn't He Clever, probably has the perfect running style to sit just off of the powerful Baffert one-two punch in Secret Circle and Bodemeister and take down the $1 million purse. Sabercat and/or Raconteur could also hit the board at obscene odds. So in closing, I am hoping today's Arkansas Derby goes the way of the Louisiana and Florida Derbies that will light up the tote board and load up my pockets. Happy racing to you all and may all your bets be winning ones.

Oaklawn Park preview - the other "Spa"

Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, Caleb’s Posse, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Azeri (pictured with Mike Smith) - a who's who of Eclipse champions over the last decade all put their indelible stamp on the one mile oval framed by blooming dogwoods. Before that there were champions the likes of Althea, Sunny's Halo, Temperence Hill, Lil E. Tee, Paseana, Bayakoa, Tiffany Lass and Cigar. Over the past decade, discussions about Oaklawn Park begin and end with the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Read more on my HRN blog @ http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Oaklawn_Park_preview_the_other_Spa_123

Derby 137 Tuesday - Archtothe3

I’ve already received several emails plotting strategy for Saturday’s big race, which usually leads to rewarding payoffs with the amount of money infused into the wagering pool from gamblers and social goers alike. "With the large, competitive fields that the Kentucky Derby draws and so many individual betting interests, the Derby is the greatest single wagering opportunity in horse racing," said Jeremy Clemons, senior director of marketing for Churchill Downs. There are several handicapping angles heading into this Derby.

See link http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/

Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap

Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.

My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."


1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).


2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.


3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.


4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.


5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.


6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)


7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!

8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.

9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!

10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.

April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update

Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.



2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.



3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.



4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.



5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.



6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.

7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.

8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.



9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!

10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.