2012 Kentucky Derby Top 10 list (leave the gun, take the cannoli)

Happy Derby season to all! With the first real Derby prep weekend on tap with the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and Sam Davis (not "the Candyman" Sammy Davis) at Tampa Bay Downs, it's time to get some picks registered.

Last year my Derby top 10 list was abysmal pretty much the entire season, although I did connect with Animal Kingdom as my long-shot play the first Saturday in May. I started 2011 off with Dialed In (wow, has he even threatened since the FL Derby?), To Honor and Serve (late bloomer) and Uncle Mo (clearly a hedge). However, two years ago I would venture to guess my top five as of February 1st proved to be as accurate as anyone in our industry since I had Lookin At Lucky first (Preakness), Super Saver second (KY Derby) and Drosselmeyer fifth (Belmont), nailing the Triple Crown in my early book top five! Furthermore, I had Eskendereya ranked at #7 a month before he freaked in the Fountain of Youth - and after a poor ninth place finish in the BC Juvenile (save that thought).

So I'm banking on the fact that I am more of an even year kind of guy -- here goes the 2012 Derby inaugural top 10 list that I will be updating about every 3 weeks...

1) The Godfather (errr.... El Padrino): First off, you've gotta love the name. I'm an actual Godfather six times over to various nieces and nephews and my wife can quote the movie like it's nobody's business ("Luco Brossi sleeps with the fishes" or "Leave the gun, take the cannoli"). Looking at Pulpit's progeny record on www.bloodhorse.com it's shocking that this big name sire has so few millionaires. Particulary, not all that much success with his sophomores (i.e. Pyro, Corinthian, Essense of Dubai) with the fluke Ice Box running into the Kentucky Derby exacta in 2010 on a wet track being the lone exception. Pulpit is seven years older than his son and the "it" sire Tapit, yet the son has as many North American millionaires as his pappa, including BC Juvenile champ Hansen (um-bop). And to add insult to injury, Tapit's stud fee is nearly three times that of the elder statesman (still both are young by sire standards, though). Imagine how Pulpit feels at family barbecues when Tapit rolls up hours late in his Jaguar with booze and smoke billowing from his ride, "Yo dad... I need another hundo for my date tonight -- taking Smart Strike's daughter out to the movies." I say Pulpit has had quite enough and will rectify the situation with his first Derby winner. You've gotta love the Giant's Causeway dam completing this powerful breeding nick pattern.

2) Creative Causeway: This is a beautiful grey blob (props to Silver Charm) of Giant's Causeway who has done little wrong in his five starts at two, including three Grade 1's and a Grade 2. This guy has so much back class at this young age and has duplicated the juvenile race pattern of 2YO AND 3YO Eclipse Champion, Lookin At Lucky, with nearly identical success. He was given about two months off after his show finish in the BC Juvenile by conditioner Mike Harrington and has returned smartly to the worktab. As Harry Caray would say (another grey blob)... "I smell trouble here, Sherri."

3) Algorithms: Being of German descent and a tax accountant by trade, I respect this name. Dictionary.com defines this noun as, "a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor." Absolutely exploded in his first start beyond a sprint distance and being by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare this mo-fo should want to run all day long. Clearly is poised to be the next "Big E" - a budding star at Gulfstream from the Pletcher barn - IF he can stay healthy. Three starts and three convincing wins. Not only that, but when a horse bred for distance is as fast as this mo-fo at five and six furlongs, you have a top Derby candidate on your hands (see Lil E. Tee).

Frankly, I could stop my Derby top 10 at this point as confident as I am in these three selections. I'm looking down at about two dozen more names on my yellow pad with most of them containing a line struck through their names after viewing race replays or looking over race charts. But for the love of the game I will press on with as many names as my faith allows me to put to writing...

4) Prospective: I love me some Malibu and Coke Zero. Oh, what I meant to say is that I love Malibu Moon as a sire. Especially with the cross to Awesome Again, who I believe is an underrated sire and could very well follow in his father's (Deputy Minister) footsteps to become an excellent broodmare sire. This guy has a double dose of Seattle Slew coursing through his veins and if you didn't notice, the Slew swept the Triple Crown back in 1977. Some will say that he does not fit with the top 3YO's since he finished up the track (13th) in the BC Juvenile, but please refer to where Eskendereya placed in my earlier paragraph. Obviously, colts at this age change quite a bit as their skeletal systems continue to develop and I'm willing to chalk that up to a bad day at the office.

Speaking of chalk, most of you are probably wondering where the top two finishers of the BC Juvenile will rank, Hansen and Union Rags. Well hold that thought, because I will have to see one or both win at 9 furlongs before I put these speed oriented bred horse on my list of colts, geldings or fillies that could actually WIN a Derby (and/or Triple Crown race). I'll eat my words if I must, but at this moment Union Rags reminds me quite a bit of Uncle Mo (finally proved that he was NOT a distance horse in the BC Classic). Not only that, at least Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile win was scintillating visually and time-wise, while the 2011 edition leaves a lot to be desired with the positive split times of each quarter mile. Thus, I'm going with horses who could threaten the winner's circle at 10 furlongs, not "hang on" for third.

5) Out of Bounds: I'm a little nervous about this pick, but that's why they call it horse racing, right, right?? His dosage index is in the vicinity of 6.00, but he has a nice stride to him and good running style of laying off the pace but always within striking distance. I hear some chatter that his sire Discreet Cat could be the next great miler sire, just like his dad Forestry struck with Shackleford last year. His Sham Stakes win against Baffert's Secret Circle (who had the speed edge) was a classic cat-like move of sitting and pouncing in the stretch. Meooowwww.

6) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Versatile enough that his connections can't yet commit to dirt or turf, thus his 2YO season was a work in progress. After two full months off (I like this training strategy - Victory Gallop came back strong at Oaklawn Park after a few months off) he's just now back in training at Gulfstream and may only get two starts prior to The Derby. Could be the fresh horse to take the bouquet of roses much like Animal Kingdom last year.

7) Mr. Bowling: Impressive Lecomte Stakes winner at Fair Grounds is sired by a new son of Gone West that also has Atigun firing at Oaklawn Park. Was a beaten favorite finishing third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois last fall under Calvin Borel. Working very fast at the Gentilly Avenue track, which is encouraging for a distance laden horse. Larry Jones is known for his magic with the fillies, but maybe this is his ticket to Derby day.

8) Fed Biz: Here's another Giant's Causeway (embarrassment of riches) colt out of a Wild Again mare. For those that don't recall, Wild Again was the winner of a hotly contested inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic race. He proved valuable as a sire although he hasn't been in the press in quite a while. He was euthanized in 2008 at age 28 after servicing many mares in meritorious service at Three Chimney Farms. Though only having a maiden score under his belt, Baffert has him cranked up on the west coast for a big debut soon.

9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. If he gets some pace to set things up for him it could prove to be what elevates him to the top of his division on any given day.

10) Reckless Jerry: Last year it was Oklahoma based Donnie Von Hemel who was dancing for joy with the success of Caleb's Posse and Alternation. This year it could be fellow Oklahoman Toby Keith's turn to strike it big on the national stage. Reckless Jerry ran well in the midwest last fall and came out sharp in a close second while racing wide to Junebugred (Corinthian) in the Smarty Jones Stakes on opening weekend. His sire, Cactus Ridge (Hennessy), also was raced by Keith's Dream Walkin Farms and scorched the track from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile before he was injured undefeated after his Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity score. His son Reckless Jerry has revenge on his mind, much like Toby when he sang, "we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way..." in his Red, White and Blue tribute tour.

Eskenderaya to miss Derby... Derby week 136 kickoff!

Derby week officially began Sunday morning with the typical drama we have come to expect in the craziness that is... The Derby. And for the second year in a row I will be losing my "lock - cinch - key" horse about one week before they were set to run, as Quality Road was sent packing on Monday of Derby week last year with a quarter crack. The extent of Big E's injury wasn't well known, just the following comments by Pletcher, "He's got some filling. We're not sure of the extent of what we re dealing with. But he's not going to run." You know this has to get Todd questioning why the horse racing gods are so much against him, as his many other runners figure to be mid-priced horses that would be a tall task to get the monkey off his back. (Speaking of course, of his 0 for 24 record in the big dance.)


On Saturday the Derby Trial was run as a last hope resort to get some graded earnings to put a few of the "bubble" horses in the top 20 list. However, favored Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince's chances were dashed when longshot Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel took the top spot on a day when Borel posted five winners at Churchill Downs. At this rate, the best handicapping strategy may be to bet Borel's horse every race, including Super Saver in The Derby. After all, he has won two out of the last three runnings! My one-time tout, Aikenite, rallied for the place and now has the earnings to make the field, but team Dogwood has said they will not wheel back in just one week for The Derby.

I have been subdued for most of my Sunday, struggling with the thought of a potential superstar not getting the opportunity to etch his place in history. Last year I had a solid backup plan with Pioneerof The Nile, this year not so much. Perhaps I'll be able to build back some confidence while pouring through past performances and breeding nicks this week. The most profound impact of this defection will be on the betting schemes in the world's greatest betting race. My "budget" for Saturday just got exponentially larger since I'll now be using 3 or 4 horses in the first position of my exotic part-wheels. But those who were hoping to somehow beat Big E are very upset about this, since huge flows towards him would have boosted the wager pools and payouts if he ran out of the money. Now, all that money will flow to the next tier of favorites and water down those payouts.

Please note the trivia question on the left margin -- go ahead and try your luck (no one knows who's guess is right or wrong!). Happy Derby Week 136, our 14th year of Derby trivia!

Eric

Derby Top 10 Update - Preps wrap

Well, my hunch to bail out of Arkansas after Zenyatta's historical triumph was a good one, as two horses I had never heard of, Line of David and Stately Victor, upset in Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively. The former was coming out of allowance turf races at Santa Anita, the latter had been unplaced in his preceding five races. Not the likes of which will challenge Big E come the first Saturday in May. This actually gives me more confidence going into this year's Derby with my betting strategy.

My last two additions to my top 10 list (Aikenite and Northern Giant) failed to menace in their last preps and are off the Derby trail. I took a gamble and lost, but hey - that's what this sport is all about, right?! I am also bagging Noble's Promise. In spite of his troubled trip in the Ark. Derby, he doesn't have enough seasoning this year to tackle the big boys - that's the risk trainers take with a light prep schedule. Besides, after being rough-housed in Arkansas, his health may not allow him to run in The Derby. I'll offer this list and only update it again the week of The Derby with my final "standings."


1) Eskendereya - Even better performance in Wood Memorial if you can believe that and will be heading into Louisville as biggest favorite in some time, likely between the 2.4 - 1 of Big Brown in '07 and 9-5 on Point Given in '01. His jockey actually made a post-race comment that worried me, saying how he actually relaxed early this time, unlike the FOY where he was "on the bit." If that happened in the Derby, he could get rubber-legged in the deep stretch. But his high cruising speed reminds me of Rachel from last year and Quality Road and for this reason I not only think he will win The Derby, but sweep the Triple Crown as well (yikes, I said what?!).


2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a rough trip at Santa Anita, but it led to some drama when Garret Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (who put him into the rail) repeatedly at the weigh scales in front of thousands of people. Still reminds me of Pioneerof The Nile from last year and expect him to run solid, if not a winning race at Churchill.


3) Awesome Act - If you were standing around me at Oaklawn Park on April 3rd you would have heard some disgust at the half mile marker when the pace was a weak 49 seconds and Awesome Act was in 2nd place. That is not this horse's style but often a jockey is forced to ride the race instead of the horse. His Wood Memorial performance (3rd to Big E) reminded me a great deal of Monarchos' prep going into the 2001 Derby where he ran second to Congaree in a fairly dull race. By pressing the pace more than usual he may have gotten more out of the race than winner Eskendereya (as dumb as that sounds!). With the full Derby field, I can see him flying home in the stretch.


4) Sidney's Candy - What's ironic about this horse is that he is named after deceased diet guru Sid Craig, who along with Jenny amassed a fortune and invested heavily in thoroughbreds throughout the 1990's. One of my favorite race mares - Paseana - was campaigned by the Craigs in the early nineties. Sire Candy Ride (see my previous Cryptoclearance obit) is one of the hottest things going today. Doesn't look like the type that must be on the lead (like stablemate Line of David), but you never know until they're challenged on the front end.


5) Super Saver - Much better run in Arkansas and is set up to improve in his third start off layoff. Question will be how much they can get him to rate in The Derby. With confirmed speedsters and stalkers, I hope his jock wraps him up for the first 6 furlongs to keep him off the pace. For some reason this one reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, who was also owned by WinStar Farm and had ho-hum Derby preps before running huge in the 2006 Derby to finish second to Barbaro. The talent is there if he gets a good post and can tuck in that 2nd wave of horses.


6) Jackson Bend - Those Jackson Bend believers will be thinking "Funny Cide" with this one, who was a well-beaten second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial before turning the tables on the favorite in The Derby. (Although, it's fair to note Empire Maker sustained small injury and missed some training leading up to that Derby and dominated in the Belmont.) This likely overlooked horse has some backclass in sweeping the Florida Stallion Series as a juvenile. Very gritty horse who's pedigree says one mile, yet he has run second twice to Big E at 9 furlongs already, so anything is pauzible. (lead in...)


7) Mission Impazible - Same comments from last time... In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. This one could be a big price on Derby day to spark some exotics!

8) Endorsement - With the attention this lightly raced colt has gotten from his Sunland Derby win over Conveyance (a miler in my opinion), he might be my "short" horse come Derby week. But I have to include him on this list since he has the talent to run huge. I touted this horse in his OP maiden race and won some nice coin on him, but that's a far cry from the Churchill stretch come the first Saturday in May.

9) Yawanna Twist - I know this horse is likely not to make The Derby field by earnings, but I want to give a shout out to his sire Yonaguska, who sired Musket Man from last year who hit the board in two Triple Crown races. This sire has been "berry, berry good to me" - Sammy Sosa. I nailed the IL Derby exotics thanks to this guy and if you're ever reading a maiden claiming or special weight race and notice offspring of Yonaguska, put a little change on it!

10) Connemara - May get his chance to secure a spot in The Derby if he places in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on Saturday, so for now I'll keep a glimmer of hope for my futures play. Would be a great horse to key for 4th position in superfectas in Derby.

April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update

Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.



2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.



3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.



4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.



5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.



6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.

7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.

8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.



9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!

10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.

Derby Top 10 Ranking #2

Sorry for the delay in posting... I've had 5 trips over the past two weeks. However, one of those was well worth the travel time as I saw Eskendereya crush a solid Fountain of Youth field in North Miami Beach. Gulfstream Park has been getting their share of talented three year-olds the past few years (Barbaro '06 and Big Brown '08) but neither were this impressive! What I like the most about a performance like this is that it occured with typical pace figures for the split times, meaning it very likely can be duplicated. We'll see if he keeps his A game in the Florida Derby in three weeks.

I was actually at Gulfstream to see a friend and co-contributor to my blog in previous years, Clay Sanders, who's racing syndicate saddled Positive Split to a 7th place finish in the FOY after chasing the Big E for 7 furlongs. Note to you handicappers: P' Split will be dangerous in future races at a mile or less at a nice price!

Three of my previous top 10 colts have still yet to run this season, so I'll keep them on the tally albeit with lower ranks. I'm only discarding one - #3 Buddy's Saint - due to his no-show as the 9-5 favorite, although there is no doubt his chances were compromised having to check mightily into the first turn. Still, I begrudgingly had him listed in the first place and now have an "excuse" to add another Oaklawn runner - Dublin. Here's my new top 10 as of March 1st:

1) Eskendereya - Big plus was his early January one mile allowance race, which will give him 3 races under his belt (all dirt) heading into Churchill. Looking for a first or second in the FL Derby.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Had a ho-hum work but Baffert knows when to crank them up.

3) Super Saver - Pletcher charge now likely to debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel... yes!

4) Dublin - Huge move for 2nd in Southwest Stakes for speedy son of Afleet Alex, who I believe was a superb three year-old colt. Perfect style for Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and has been tearing up Oaklawn Park in works all year long now that he can actually breathe!

5) American Lion - I'm leaving him in original spot after dueling with Tiz Chrome and getting passed in stretch over Santa Anita synthetic surface that truly favors closers. Fastest time of the meet at 1 1/16 miles.

6) Rule - Grandson of 200o Derby winner Fu-Peg has stamina in breeding. Question is can they harness his speed in the Lane's End?

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Apparently, he's a head case, but weren't we all at that age?!

9) Noble's Promise - Speedy bullet work gearing up for 2010 debut in Florida.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Happy Racing!