Preakness Stakes 136 Preview

Lookin At Lucky redeemed himself in Baltimore after a troubled trip in Louisville en route to an Eclipse award for 3YO male. Can Dialed In follow in his steps and claim the $5.5 million Magna bonus? Or will Animal Kingdom again reign supreme? We'll know in a few days!

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Preakness_136_Preview_Pace_makes_the_race_123

Afleet Express noses out Fly Down and Zito in Midsummer Derby

Editor's note: Sorry - thought I had posted this weeks ago!

The Travers Stakes at Saratoga has a lofty reputation for displaying the top 3 year-0lds of the "second half" of the racing season, which is rarely the same group of sophomores considering the brutal grind of the spring Derby fever prep races. With the narrowest of victories, Afleet Express essentially locked up divisional honors for a colt not even in the race, Lookin At Lucky. The victory also catapulted his sire, Afleet Alex, to the head of the second crop sires list and now seems well on his way to be a major influence in classic bloodlines, ala Birdstone.

Perhaps if Fly Down could have gotten his nose to the wire first he could have still made a case for an Eclipse Award with a good showing in a Breeders' Cup race, considering his previous Belmont runner-up status. But Baffert has yet again proven his skills in this division. Three year-olds are especially judged by the Triple Crown series and with Super Saver and Ice Box's poor showing in the Travers, Lucky is essentially the last horse standing. But First Dude deserves another mention for yet another in the money finish with his show spot. The 3 year-old bay colt now has hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes (all grade I), and has earned more than $600,000 despite only a maiden victory in ten career starts!

Moving on to the Zenyatta vs. Rachel debate (as if there was any remaining), Miss Zen picked up her 18th consecutive victory without a defeat in early August at seaside Del Mar in the Grade I Clement Hirsch Stakes. Mike Smith rode Zen with extreme confidence as she was fanned wide on the turn and reached the front much earlier in the race than usual, but held on by her mammoth neck. She will likely get one penultimate start in California before the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic.

On the other coast, Rachel Alexandra lost her third race of 2010 while racing at 10 furlongs for the first time in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at historic Saratoga -- the site of her titillating victory in last summer's Woodward Stakes. After flashing her customary early speed to put away Life At Ten by the quarter pole, Rachel could not withstand the persistent stretch run of, well... Persistently - the $45 winner. This result confirms my belief that Rachel is most effective between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, which may now leave the Ladies Classic race as the only option for owner and trainer for Breeders' Cup consideration (assuming she shows up at all to Churchill Downs!).

Lookin At Lucky finally gets his break at Pimlico

What an interesting trip to the 2010 Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. Wanting to witness a Preakness Stakes in person at Pimlico Race Course before the Maryland Jockey Club likely moves the race to Laurel Park (due to financial woes as well as the decrepit state of the second oldest racing venue in these United States), my wife and I cheerily set out to the resting place of Edgar Allan Poe. I knew the trip was off to a good start when we came across Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey at the DFW airport as we both waited out extended weather delays. Jerry seemed to appreciate getting to "talk shop" about the next day's Preakness Stakes. Coincidentally, Jerry was flying back from visiting his father in El Paso and NOT heading northeast to Baltimore, as we were. And because of this exchange, I'll never beat myself up over my lousy picks again!


First of all, I got Jerry's attention by walking over and mentioning to him that Cigar was my "big" horse, to which he replied, "What a coincidence - he was MY big horse, too!" At that point, I wanted to confront him over his bonehead speed-happy ride in the Pacific Classic, costing Cigar his 17th consecutive victory to the obscure Dare And Go, but opted for the civil route instead. Thus, after exchanging pleasantries about our reflections of Oaklawn Park, where Bailey often rode during my Oaklawn "heyday," I pulled out my charts and we both went into handicapping mode for the next ten minutes. This is something I will always remind my wife of when she accuses horse racing of being simply another "hobby" -- I can remind her of the day I held my own with Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey!


What about Paddy?, I asked. "I like him a lot, but we'll see if he can handle true dirt since the Derby track was wet-sealed," replied Baily. Jerry shot back with a comment about long-shots Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams, that I hastily dismissed. Getting back to my horses, I interrupted to ask his opinion of 'Lucky. His response was very direct and without pause, "Lucky is one of those horses who seems to find trouble... he never seems to be in the right position to get a jump on the others, and that's probably an indication of his ability rather than the jockey's moves." To which I added, "kind of like Dollar Bill several seasons back" and received an affirmative nod from Jerry. But the problem was that I disagreed with Jerry's analysis on Lucky. How in the world could I possibly dispute a Hall of Famer when it comes to horseflesh and jockeys and when horses should move?! So I just smiled and nodded but did add that I personally witnessed his Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and was very impressed with his determination in getting past Noble's Promise. And with that, my 15 minutes in the shoes of Kenny Mayne or Randy Moss - playing Jerry Bailey's sidekick - came to an abrupt end.


Of course, the race itself wasn't nearly as interesting as our journey. But then again, in horse racing the race rarely lives up to the road getting there. Super Saver looked brilliant in the walk-over with Pletcher, but resembled a tired horse as the race unfolded. Paddy O'Prado obviously didn't take to the real dirt track and Lookin At Lucky indeed did improve off his previous unlucky stretch rides and got to the wire first for trainer Baffert under a new jockey - Martin Garcia. First Dude and Jackson Bend ran gutsy for the place and show spots, respectively.


It was a fun race to watch without too much at stake from a betting perspective, but the real happenings were going on in the infield at Pimlico, where $20 for unlimited beer refills brought in 40,000 strong party-goers to the infield alone (total attendance was 97,000). In addition to a Zach Brown Band concert, competitions ranging from beach volleyball (professional tour) to washers/cornhole and beer pong (out of shape amateurs) obliterated the sun-baked revelers. Many journalists have attacked the Preakness in recent years due to this atmosphere, but the track officials have made it clear they want the big crowds -- however they can get them. Even if that includes a marketing campaign of "Get Your Preak On!" Luckily, we had seats in the Old Hickory section of the grandstand, so we were able to retreat to our seats for much of the day.


Belmont does offer a kinder, gentler environment with more families coming over from the neighboring boroughs. So if you're high society you may want to wait for the more tempered Belmont Stakes or even the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in the fall. But if you're like me - a little bit country and a little bit rock 'n roll - then put the Preakness Stakes on your short list for big races to see before it becomes, well, history!

Derby week 136 - Finally Friday

It’s go time, baby… “Go, Baby, Go” reads the NTRA ad slogan and we’ll all be yelling that come Saturday around 5:15pm CST. I’ve watched as many replays as I can possibly watch and my eyes are bloodshot from straining in front of small print race charts and the computer screen. My dogs are barking at me to take them out, so I’ve gotta wrap this up. I must confess that I have spent more time on the betting side of the Derby this year than researching all the human interest stories out there. (Actually, I haven’t “studied” this much since taking the CFP exam years ago.) I am still bitter about that F’ing Mine That Bird last year costing me a stone-cold trifecta. I’m overdue for a winner, not having dinged the register since my Funny Cide overlay in 2003. That’s another thing about these odds to watch out for. I think Churchill Down’s handicapper – Mike Battaglia – sets some piss-poor early odds, which unfortunately has a major impact on betting strategies. The best advice I ever got was that if you’re going to lose your own money, you should at least pick who YOU think will win, not what someone else tells you!

I forgot to mention another injury/defection that occurred Wednesday when one of WinStar Farm’s up-and-comer Endorsement was injured during his last workout and was also withdrawn from the race, leaving the final spot for Make Music for Me – a son of my good friend “Bernstein.” Endorsement had me puzzled quite a bit, not knowing what to think of his big performance over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby in his first start after breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park, so I can’t say I was disappointed with the news.

After the crushing blow upon hearing Eskenderaya’s injury and withdrawal, I’ve been able to pull it together and be positive the last few days. Wednesday evening I found a replacement horse that I am very keen on, having discounted his impressive string of wins due to my inherent west coast bias. Of course, I am speaking of Sidney’s Candy. Check out these comments from the LA Times after his 3 year-old debut win. [“Sidney's Candy is certainly a horse to watch after the son of Candy Ride routed the competition in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, winning the seven-furlong race by 4-1/4 lengths in the time of 1:20.91. It was the second-fastest time in the 69-year history of the San Vicente Stakes and nine winners have gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joe Talamo, Sidney's Candy gained attention last summer at Del Mar when he set a track record for 5-1/2 furlongs in his second start. "I just basically sat on him today, and I couldn't believe that final time," Talamo said. "That's awesome. It's very exciting to have a horse of this caliber."]

Actually, the 20 year-old phenom jockey (discovered in Louisiana by the late hall of fame trainer, Bobby Frankel) did have a horse of his caliber on last year’s Derby trail that ended abruptly at about 8:00am Derby day morning when I Want Revenge had to be scratched from Derby 135 (shades of AP Indy). He had a great shot to match Stewart Elliott’s feat of winning The Derby (Smarty Jones ’04) in his first attempt. Now he still does with the second choice in the morning line. In spite of his 20 post, I am encouraged that he is the best horse in this below average crop (due to a few injuries) and that this will force Talamo to tuck into the second flight of horses by the first turn instead of being in the fray of establishing the early fractions.

Speaking of the pace scenario, here’s a quote from Mike Brunker, horse racing editor at www.NBCSports.com. “The pace in the Derby is almost certain to be blistering. American Lion, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Line of David, Paddy O’Prado, Sidney’s Candy, Super Saver and Rule all have a habit of going to the front right out of the gate. Even if the jockeys try to ration the front-runners’ speed, as they most assuredly will, speedsters tend to be headstrong and competitive and may not agree to the preferred tactics of their trainers and riders. And it would only take a couple of them to hook up to set up a suicidal speed duel.”

My contention is that “suicidal” fractions occur only when one or more horses have the natural speed to turn a :45 and change four furlong and 1:09 five furlong split time. In this group (conceding that 7 horses recently ran on the lead… impossible in a 20 horse field) the fastest split time in a prep race greater than one mile was Line of David’s Arkansas Derby where he went :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 before slowing the six furlong time down to 1:36 2/5. Conveyance was the next in line at :48, 1:11 4/5 and 1:35 4/5. Sidney’s Candy splits in the 9 furlong SA Derby were actually faster than his splits in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe, but still only :48 2/5, 1:12 1/5 and 1:35 2/5. Considering the trainers and jockeys know that if they increased these times, they would have little shot at hitting the board and collecting a share of the $2 million purse money considering the added distance, my guess is that The Derby fractions will be about average – which would equate to :46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:36. Rather than the true “suicidal” fractions in 2005 that resulted in two horses over 50-1 stumbling home first and second after a :45 2/5 and 1:09 3/5 splits!

So what does all this jabber mean?? That you want a horse that can be forwardly placed in the 3rd – 5th spot to keep out of trouble (and keep the mud out of the face and nostrils if it truly comes up sloppy on Saturday). Over the past 8 years, 5 Derby winners were 1st through 4th by the half-mile point, while the remaining 3 winners were practically dead last (Giacomo, Street Sense and Mine That Bird). But to be honest, the pace will dictate who wins The Derby, and it will likely not be the best horse on paper!

Let me complete my top 3 picks with a square price in the field, #14 Mission Impazible at 20-1 and then the favorite, #1 Lookin at Lucky, who is by far the most consistent runner in the field. He relished the dirt at Oaklawn Park, so that may be enough to overcome the 4 lengths he lost to Sidney’s Candy in the SA Derby. For those of you who follow breeding nicks, take a peak at the Drone influence on the damside of Mission. Derby winner Grindstone (and grand-sire of both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) and Triple Crown veteran from last year Musket Man (via Yonaguska – Cherokee Run) also carried Drone. His sire – Unbridled’s Song – hails from the classic stamina influence Mr. Prospector via Fappiano, who produced two Derby winners in Unbridled and Real Quiet. But my Sidney’s Candy has one of the lowest Dosage Index I have ever seen at 1.86, with inbreeding to both Nearctic (sire of Northern Dancer) and Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat). So that’s a peak at the method behind my madness.

Kids, it’s time to get those bets placed at your local track, OTB or twinspires.com, then kick back, relax, and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports! And if you are so inclined, say a prayer for Todd Pletcher during “My Old Kentucky Home.” May your Derby Day 2010 be filled with joy and your pockets be filled with winning tickets.

E

Derby week trivia - Post Positions

Quite an ironic post position draw yesterday in that the two betting favorites in a seemingly wide open Derby drew the worst positions, see below. Many feel that the one hole is the worst spot but I can't help but think Sidney's Candy would be better off at the rail to save the ground, knowing he figures to be very close to the pace early and that there are 10 furlongs for him to maneuver around a horse or two, rather than being forced minimum 4 wide around the first turn. But the year Big Brown's camp chose the 20 post (while a couple other options were still available) people preached doom and gloom and he managed to get a fairly easy stalking trip only four wide. Several winners have come from the 15-20 post auxiliary gate over the past decade, so I guess anything is possible. Here's a look at the posts with odds, for your convenience:

1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line Of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care, 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discretely Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris, 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1

Although I'll save my Derby picks for Friday's posting, I would like to share my "toss" horses for Saturday's race. With 20 horses in the field, you have to take a stand against some very capable horses, and I've been much more succesful in tossing horses than actually picking winners. A couple of cases in point were Dunkirk last year, who became the "it" horse after running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby - he finished 11th while going off at lower odds than my pick, Pioneerof The Nile, who finished a gutsy 2nd. Likewise, back in 2006 I was shocked that Sweetnorthernsaint went off as The Derby favorite when I didn't have one cent bet on him. Too bad I also tried to beat the true talent of that year, Barbaro.

This year I'll take a stand against two of the co-third choices at 10-1 in morning line, Ice Box and the filly Devil May Care. I witnessed Ice Box's Fountain of Youth futile effort against Eskenderaya when he didn't get more than one "courtesy call" by the track announcer. And even though closers don't fare well in slower pace scenarios, they usually don't give up lengths in the stretch either, which is what he did. His Florida Derby victory came without the top 3 finishers from the FOY running back and that pace scenario was the fastest of any Derby prep. Thus, he should have looked like a world-beater coming from the clouds to win by a nose against a Pletcher horse (Rule) that he thought so little of he withdrew earlier in the week.

Regarding Devil May Care, I tipped my cap with previous comments about how she is coming off of one really good race against suspect fillies and a light race schedule. It seems to me like the recent success of other fillies in triple crown races has affected the morning line odds and likely the sentiment of the betting public when it may not be deserved for this particular filly. The owner basically admitted that when Big E scratched and that left John Velazquez without a Derby mount he felt bad for him and decided to give it a go. I'll take my chances elsewhere... stay tuned tomorrow!

Yesterday's trivia answer is $9,814 that was fueled by 50-1 shot Giacomo and 72-1 shot Closing Argument in the zany 2005 Derby! Would have been a nice year to wheel "All" with "All" for a $760 total outlay.

If you'd like to participate in a "just for fun" handicapping contest, please email me your top 3 horses - in order - to erickords@yahoo.com . Good luck with your handicapping!

April 3 Derby preps preview and Top 10 update

Has anyone else noticed how the Oaklawn sophomores are blazing their way through the major Derby preps? In addition to the big 3 from the Rebel Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin) other Oaklawn horses are shipping out of town to much success. Mission Impazzible, 4th in the Southwest Stakes, was good enough to take the top prize in the LA Derby on Saturday. Endorsement, who broke his maiden at OP just over a month ago shipped to New Mexico and captured the $800,000 Sunland Derby over the weekend, beating Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance in the process (and boosting me up the WinStar leader board in the process!) Northern Giant, owned by the father-son Ford family team operating under Westrock Stable (spending some of their Verizon buy-out money from Alltel sale!) also broke his maiden and Oaklawn and has since hit the board twice in Graded Stakes, most recently second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End. Lookin At Lucky will have a chance to keep the streak going in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

I have three new additions to this week's Top 10 list - #7-9. Good luck with all your Saturday bets and Happy Easter to all!

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial on April 3 for better spacing leading into Louisville. Expect to see him sitting just off pace and closing well for the win or place.



2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt. 90% probable for SA Derby on Saturday per Baffert.



3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time. Will have to tackle Big E in the Wood Memorial but doesn't have to win to get to Louisville. If lively pace develops and Big E is in the fray, his closing kick could prove the difference.



4) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to Lucky. Should be the best in $1 million Arkansas Derby April 10 if Lucky stays home.



5) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give him one more try, likely to run in Arkansas which will give us a good litmus test to his quality.



6) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances. Has a tall task in the Wood.

7) Aikenite - I hate his breeding but love his gutsy races where he never gives up. Obviously, I'm putting a lot of stock in the Fountain of Youth as a "key" race and see no reason why this one won't improve as well in his third race off layoff. It's been a while since Dogwood Stable had a "big horse," but this one is aptly named.

8) Northern Giant - Oaklawn graduate with dramatic maiden score. Followed that with a third (by nose) in LA Derby and place effort in Lane's End. Stalking running style may be sitting on a breakout race for Ford family of Arkansas (Alltel fame). Son of "it" sire Giant's Causeway, along with Big E - Eskendereya.



9) Mission Impazible - Of all the past weekend's preps, I liked his win in the LA Derby the most. In the chaotic Derby field, it's nice to have a horse who can break well, but then settle and let the jockey place the horse. By reading the LA Derby race chart, that's exactly what happened in the big field when he broke 2nd but was taken back to 5th, then 7th before commencing his rally after true race fractions. Yet another Pletcher charge who was coming out of a 4th place effort at Oaklawn Park in Southwest Stakes. Could be my live longshot in exotics in this year's Derby!

10) Connemara - Grinding effort while 7 wide into stretch in Lane's End on polytrack, where it's harder to draw away from field. Still like his race pattern and closing kick; hopefully it will re-emerge on Churchill Downs strip, assuming his earnings put him in.

Rebel Stakes recap and first "final" Derby prep this Saturday

It's hard to believe that just one week after the return to the track of several top 10 Derby prospects, a few will be making their last tune-up race in Saturday's Florida Derby, six weeks from the "big dance" (it is NCAA March madness after all!).

I've been chomping at the bit to discuss Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where I met up with a raucous crowd that is sure to become the next big annual event. What a perfect weekend in Hot Springs, when the dogwoods were yielding their virgin blooms and the track was abuzz with electricity, which would ultimately be unplugged with the shocking loss of Rachel A. later in the day. Lookin At Lucky "looks" like a champion, well maybe because he was last year's two year-old champion. But what I mean is that I can clearly see him in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May with the familiar silver haired Bob Baffert high fiving his beer drinking owner friend, Mike Pegram, in the same silks as Sssshhhhh, Real Quiet, claimed The Derby with back in 1998. Let's hope this first race off the shelf won't take too much out of the champ. And how about that Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise? What a game effort in defeat in also his first effort of 2010. Although, I still get leary with the top of his bloodline since he seems to be coming up a tad short in all of his distance races. Dublin really disappointed me in that I thought this would be his break-out race. While he did make a big move approaching the turn, he flattened out into the stretch which also leads me to believe his best distance is 7 furlongs to one mile.

At Santa Anita they had a bit of an upset with Sidney's Candy (recall brother Chocolate Candy from last spring?) and Interactif taking the win-place over Caracortado and American Lion. Meanwhile at the Tampa Bay Derby it was an ugly race with the top four horses - including my Super Saver - trading places all around the racetrack. Many people are jumping on the winner's - Odysseus - bandwagon, but I'm not sure about this one even after his 15 length romp leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither or these races impressed me near as much as the Rebel, and the Beyer speed figures back me up on this one.

This Derby is shaping up with more speed than any of recent memory. I'm not talking about the blazing speed of Songandaprayer or Smoke Glacken, but rather many of the top prospects seem hell bent on getting the lead and trying to dictate pace. Perhaps it seems this way since Todd Pletcher trains about half of this year's three year-olds! But seriously, did anyone else see Super Saver's race at Tampa and watch that horse spurt away from the field in the opening strides, only to lose by a length at the wire? Having natural or tactical speed is one thing, but I'll never understand gunning a horse to the front in a 9 furlong race. Oh well, the point of all this is that I am giving particular consideration to those who are comfortable having some dirt splashed in their face and routinely pick up horses in the stretch. I feel somewhat burned last year with Friesan Fire (even though Pioneerof the Nile was my top pick with a nice place finish) after he broke poorly and was thus "Brooks & Dunn" due to his running style.

Without further delay, here is my latest and greatest top 10 list heading into the Florida Derby; two defections with American Lion and Dublin.

1) Eskendereya - Now pointing to Wood Memorial for better spacing leading into Louisville.

2) Lookin At Lucky - Baffert is sitting pretty and can run this one anywhere now that he won the Rebel on dirt.

3) Awesome Act - Gotham Stakes winner at Aqueduct is a striking son of Awesome Again who may be peaking at the right time.

4) Rule - Speedball now the likely favorite for the Florida Derby this Saturday. Perhaps the six weeks will keep his tempo level.

5) Noble's Promise - Game effort at Oaklawn, but again came up short to 'Lucky.

6) Super Saver - Pletcher charge had terrible tactics in Tampa Derby. Will give one more try.

7) Jackson Bend - He stepped up in class nicely with a game place to Big E in the FOY. But my gut is telling me that his best races are behind him with the shorter distances.

8) Connemara - My 30-1 futures bet is alive and well with a score in the Cal Derby running down pedestrian fractions. Truest closer of the bunch!

9) Radiohead - This diminutive lead pony comes from the same connections as Big Brown. Clearly, this one is not being doped up by Rick Dutrow, but he recently wore down much larger horses in a 1 mile race at Gulfstream and may upset in the Florida Derby.

10) Drosselmeyer - My boy didn't show up like I thought he would at the Fair Grounds, but he was in front about five jumps past the wire and all indications are that he should impove with another furlong.

Be sure to update your WinStar Farm Fantasy Stable for the three horse addition by tomorrow if you haven't already. I'd use Radiohead in that pool as a sleeper!

2010 Derby Trail

In just under three months a new Derby champ will be crowned. And there's a strong probability that horse has yet to race this calendar year. So there is a lot that can - and will - happen on this Derby trail, just as there is every year. But I wanted to get the chatter started before this weekend's first series of major regional prep races go postward (Robert Lewis @ Santa Anita and Sam Davis Stakes @ Tampa Bay on Saturday followed by the Southwest Mile @ Oaklawn and San Vicente @ SA on Monday).

In addition to posting wrap-ups each Monday following the major 3YO racing weekends leading up to Derby 136, I will also launch my top 10 Derby colts. Since I had a friend in Vegas for the Super Bowl, I studied up over the weekend to place a few futures bets (thanks J-Bern!). So without further delay, let's get Derby season 136 crancked up...

1) Lookin At Lucky - I got on Pioneerof The Nile early last year and rode him to a solid 2nd place Derby finish. Baffert is looking good again with this versatile colt and looks to follow his proven formula of 2 Derby preps while getting a peak effort on the first Saturday in May.

2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."

3) Buddy's Saint - Seems to be the "it" horse but perhaps a little early in the game. I'm waiting to see if he can duplicate those Big A performances (the quirky Aqueduct track historically leads to huge margins of victory) at Gulfstream. But after yesterday's game, who dat talkin bout beatin dem Saints?!

4) Jackson Bend - Backed up his Calder domination with a nice place in the Holy Bull. We'll see if his obscure breeding can hold up through the Derby grind.

5) American Lion - One of many live runners for the WinStar Farms group from Dallas. His presidential name is certainly worthy of being engraved on The Derby trophy.

6) Drosselmeyer - Speaking of names, this guy gets my vote - sounds like an old fraternity nickname of mine. Has a solid race foundation and a proven sire in Distorted Humor (Funny Cide in 2003).

7) Eskendereya - Yikes, don't make me say this name! Been running against the best and from the potent Storm Cat - Seattle Slew lines. Familiar silks of owner Zayat, who had Pioneerof The Nile last year.

8) Rule - Front running type, so who knows if he can learn to harness his speed. But Pletcher places an emphasis on speed and may have a plan for this one.

9) Noble's Promise - Well traveled McPeek charge never has run a bad one, including a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.

10) Connemara - A lovely western Ireland region where Atlantic salmon, Guinness and craic are as common as railbirds at a New York racetrack. The horse is a fairly talented runner in California. I visited this place on my honeymoon and if he were to win The Derby, I've the funds for a return trip. Erin Go Bragh!