2012 Kentucky Derby Top 10 list (leave the gun, take the cannoli)

Happy Derby season to all! With the first real Derby prep weekend on tap with the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and Sam Davis (not "the Candyman" Sammy Davis) at Tampa Bay Downs, it's time to get some picks registered.

Last year my Derby top 10 list was abysmal pretty much the entire season, although I did connect with Animal Kingdom as my long-shot play the first Saturday in May. I started 2011 off with Dialed In (wow, has he even threatened since the FL Derby?), To Honor and Serve (late bloomer) and Uncle Mo (clearly a hedge). However, two years ago I would venture to guess my top five as of February 1st proved to be as accurate as anyone in our industry since I had Lookin At Lucky first (Preakness), Super Saver second (KY Derby) and Drosselmeyer fifth (Belmont), nailing the Triple Crown in my early book top five! Furthermore, I had Eskendereya ranked at #7 a month before he freaked in the Fountain of Youth - and after a poor ninth place finish in the BC Juvenile (save that thought).

So I'm banking on the fact that I am more of an even year kind of guy -- here goes the 2012 Derby inaugural top 10 list that I will be updating about every 3 weeks...

1) The Godfather (errr.... El Padrino): First off, you've gotta love the name. I'm an actual Godfather six times over to various nieces and nephews and my wife can quote the movie like it's nobody's business ("Luco Brossi sleeps with the fishes" or "Leave the gun, take the cannoli"). Looking at Pulpit's progeny record on www.bloodhorse.com it's shocking that this big name sire has so few millionaires. Particulary, not all that much success with his sophomores (i.e. Pyro, Corinthian, Essense of Dubai) with the fluke Ice Box running into the Kentucky Derby exacta in 2010 on a wet track being the lone exception. Pulpit is seven years older than his son and the "it" sire Tapit, yet the son has as many North American millionaires as his pappa, including BC Juvenile champ Hansen (um-bop). And to add insult to injury, Tapit's stud fee is nearly three times that of the elder statesman (still both are young by sire standards, though). Imagine how Pulpit feels at family barbecues when Tapit rolls up hours late in his Jaguar with booze and smoke billowing from his ride, "Yo dad... I need another hundo for my date tonight -- taking Smart Strike's daughter out to the movies." I say Pulpit has had quite enough and will rectify the situation with his first Derby winner. You've gotta love the Giant's Causeway dam completing this powerful breeding nick pattern.

2) Creative Causeway: This is a beautiful grey blob (props to Silver Charm) of Giant's Causeway who has done little wrong in his five starts at two, including three Grade 1's and a Grade 2. This guy has so much back class at this young age and has duplicated the juvenile race pattern of 2YO AND 3YO Eclipse Champion, Lookin At Lucky, with nearly identical success. He was given about two months off after his show finish in the BC Juvenile by conditioner Mike Harrington and has returned smartly to the worktab. As Harry Caray would say (another grey blob)... "I smell trouble here, Sherri."

3) Algorithms: Being of German descent and a tax accountant by trade, I respect this name. Dictionary.com defines this noun as, "a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor." Absolutely exploded in his first start beyond a sprint distance and being by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare this mo-fo should want to run all day long. Clearly is poised to be the next "Big E" - a budding star at Gulfstream from the Pletcher barn - IF he can stay healthy. Three starts and three convincing wins. Not only that, but when a horse bred for distance is as fast as this mo-fo at five and six furlongs, you have a top Derby candidate on your hands (see Lil E. Tee).

Frankly, I could stop my Derby top 10 at this point as confident as I am in these three selections. I'm looking down at about two dozen more names on my yellow pad with most of them containing a line struck through their names after viewing race replays or looking over race charts. But for the love of the game I will press on with as many names as my faith allows me to put to writing...

4) Prospective: I love me some Malibu and Coke Zero. Oh, what I meant to say is that I love Malibu Moon as a sire. Especially with the cross to Awesome Again, who I believe is an underrated sire and could very well follow in his father's (Deputy Minister) footsteps to become an excellent broodmare sire. This guy has a double dose of Seattle Slew coursing through his veins and if you didn't notice, the Slew swept the Triple Crown back in 1977. Some will say that he does not fit with the top 3YO's since he finished up the track (13th) in the BC Juvenile, but please refer to where Eskendereya placed in my earlier paragraph. Obviously, colts at this age change quite a bit as their skeletal systems continue to develop and I'm willing to chalk that up to a bad day at the office.

Speaking of chalk, most of you are probably wondering where the top two finishers of the BC Juvenile will rank, Hansen and Union Rags. Well hold that thought, because I will have to see one or both win at 9 furlongs before I put these speed oriented bred horse on my list of colts, geldings or fillies that could actually WIN a Derby (and/or Triple Crown race). I'll eat my words if I must, but at this moment Union Rags reminds me quite a bit of Uncle Mo (finally proved that he was NOT a distance horse in the BC Classic). Not only that, at least Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile win was scintillating visually and time-wise, while the 2011 edition leaves a lot to be desired with the positive split times of each quarter mile. Thus, I'm going with horses who could threaten the winner's circle at 10 furlongs, not "hang on" for third.

5) Out of Bounds: I'm a little nervous about this pick, but that's why they call it horse racing, right, right?? His dosage index is in the vicinity of 6.00, but he has a nice stride to him and good running style of laying off the pace but always within striking distance. I hear some chatter that his sire Discreet Cat could be the next great miler sire, just like his dad Forestry struck with Shackleford last year. His Sham Stakes win against Baffert's Secret Circle (who had the speed edge) was a classic cat-like move of sitting and pouncing in the stretch. Meooowwww.

6) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Versatile enough that his connections can't yet commit to dirt or turf, thus his 2YO season was a work in progress. After two full months off (I like this training strategy - Victory Gallop came back strong at Oaklawn Park after a few months off) he's just now back in training at Gulfstream and may only get two starts prior to The Derby. Could be the fresh horse to take the bouquet of roses much like Animal Kingdom last year.

7) Mr. Bowling: Impressive Lecomte Stakes winner at Fair Grounds is sired by a new son of Gone West that also has Atigun firing at Oaklawn Park. Was a beaten favorite finishing third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois last fall under Calvin Borel. Working very fast at the Gentilly Avenue track, which is encouraging for a distance laden horse. Larry Jones is known for his magic with the fillies, but maybe this is his ticket to Derby day.

8) Fed Biz: Here's another Giant's Causeway (embarrassment of riches) colt out of a Wild Again mare. For those that don't recall, Wild Again was the winner of a hotly contested inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic race. He proved valuable as a sire although he hasn't been in the press in quite a while. He was euthanized in 2008 at age 28 after servicing many mares in meritorious service at Three Chimney Farms. Though only having a maiden score under his belt, Baffert has him cranked up on the west coast for a big debut soon.

9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. If he gets some pace to set things up for him it could prove to be what elevates him to the top of his division on any given day.

10) Reckless Jerry: Last year it was Oklahoma based Donnie Von Hemel who was dancing for joy with the success of Caleb's Posse and Alternation. This year it could be fellow Oklahoman Toby Keith's turn to strike it big on the national stage. Reckless Jerry ran well in the midwest last fall and came out sharp in a close second while racing wide to Junebugred (Corinthian) in the Smarty Jones Stakes on opening weekend. His sire, Cactus Ridge (Hennessy), also was raced by Keith's Dream Walkin Farms and scorched the track from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile before he was injured undefeated after his Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity score. His son Reckless Jerry has revenge on his mind, much like Toby when he sang, "we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way..." in his Red, White and Blue tribute tour.

Eclipse Award voters get it wrong with Animal Kingdom

Ask a general sports fan what's the best race in the world and nearly all will respond "Kentucky Derby." Ask them to name just one other race and they usually can't do it. Horsemen are supposed to know better, though. I thought most horsemen realized that while the KY Derby is the day that gets all the attention (and rightly so), the Breeders' Cup is where champions are crowned.

How Animal Kingdom beat out both Caleb's Posse and Shackleford (who ran one-two in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against older horses) simply defies logic. Other than his Kentucky Derby upset, AK boasts a modest Grade 3 win in Turfway's Spiral Stakes on polytrack (arguably the weakest of any Derby preps) and a narrow loss to Shackleford in the Preakness. While Shackleford was the most consistent runner over the course of the year, his seconditis likely cost him the vote, finishing second in three Grade 1 races, including the BC Dirt Mile to the runaway winner Caleb's Posse. Both these sophomores had a grueling 10 race season, yet were still at the top of their game come Breeders' Cup time, especially hard to do for young horses.

But Caleb's Posse really shined in key moments, denying Uncle Mo the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at historic Saratoga after winning another Grade 2 sprint there. While he certainly was not at his best running long, he did start hot at Oaklawn Park by winning the Smarty Jones Stakes and placing second in the Grade 2 Rebel to The Factor and held his own in some regional Derbies, also winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

But instead, a horse who lost his first race of the season to a horse named Powhatan County and who won only two of five races over about a three month span will be voted the best 3YO of 2011? The numbers just are not at all there to support this decision. All this talk about how horses don't run enough for fans to get engaged is B-S as long as our very own "media" reward these one-hit wonders. The vote was at least close at 114-111, but certainly that doesn't take the pain away from the McNeill or Von Hemel families, who could have very well received two awards for best sprinter and 3YO male, but instead go home empty handed. Makes you wonder about the sincerity of these voters and whether there is a Kentucky bias that works against lesser known horsemen. He might not have fit in the right "peg," but to me Caleb's Posse was certainly the best of his class in 2011, hands down. And perhaps he'll get another crack at it with a more focused sprint season in 2012!

Oaklawn Park preview - the other "Spa"

Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, Caleb’s Posse, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Azeri (pictured with Mike Smith) - a who's who of Eclipse champions over the last decade all put their indelible stamp on the one mile oval framed by blooming dogwoods. Before that there were champions the likes of Althea, Sunny's Halo, Temperence Hill, Lil E. Tee, Paseana, Bayakoa, Tiffany Lass and Cigar. Over the past decade, discussions about Oaklawn Park begin and end with the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Read more on my HRN blog @ http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Oaklawn_Park_preview_the_other_Spa_123

Horse Racing's fallen stars in 2011

See my recent article posted on Horse Racing Nation under 12thCrown for 2011 tribute at: http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Remembering_those_we_lost_in_2011_123

Breeders' Cup - Racing's Greatest Day

Most novice fans of horse racing would scoff at the notion of a day greater than the hallowed Kentucky Derby Saturday. But insiders know that the Breeders' Cup is the day that brings together the best of the best across North America and Europe. While many are debating whether Havre de Grace can best the boys in the Classic finale on Saturday, to me this year's edition begins and ends with one name... GOLDIKOVA.

I still get goose-bumps when thinking of seeing the blue-white silks on Olivier Peslier's back flash wide on the far turn from my railbird position at last year's Turf Mile, also at Churchill Downs. She went on to win that race for the third consecutive year and was even brought back for an unfathomable "four-peat" (sorry Pat Riley but I didn't use "your" word!). In my opinion, this would be a record that will stand longer than the triple crown drought if she were to accomplish this feat. Even if not, props to the owners for allowing her to continue racing into her prime years.

My SRS partners and I will be watching this weekend with anticipation that perhaps one of our stable runners (Posse's Starlet, Herbert Hughes) can make the starting gate next year at Santa Anita. But until then, my excitement will be channeled through my good friend Clay's hope - Dayatthespa - in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Bring her home, Clay!!

For those interested, I will be passing along a few hunch bets on Saturday through my Twitter account @DerbyTalk.

Let's get out there and cash some tickets!!!

Saturday Racing Stable - Off and Running!

It is with much enthusiasm that I share news with my racing friends that I have launched my horse syndicate that has been 15 years in the making, Saturday Racing Stable. Back in April, I purchased a two year-old filly by Posse at the Fasig-Tipton Texas sale and named her Posse's Starlet. She is a leggy chestnut filly with a nice bottom (see for yourself at left) that we hope will debut at the Fair Grounds this winter.

Then last month we bought a yearling colt by hot sire Henny Hughes out of a Maria's Mon mare to be named Herbert Hughes. He is an early foal so we hope he hits the track early summer of 2012 at either Lone Star in Dallas or a Louisiana track since he is a LA bred eligible for their huge purse incentives. Both charges are being trained at Diamond D Farm in east Texas at the moment - the same training center that broke Rachel Alexandra as a juvenile! I will occasionally be posting updates of progress, particularly closer to actual racing days, so keep tabs on this blog if at all interested.

The 2011 racing season is still looking for an icon and for the third year in a row it could be another female, but Havre de Grace or Blind Luck? Or will European mare Goldikova reign supreme for yet another Breeders' Cup turf mile? It will be settled in the next couple of months.

Happy Racing!
Eric

Belmont Favorite???

The betting odds are sure to be tight when it comes to the “big three” in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Of course, I am speaking of Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, runner-up, Nehro, and Preakness victor, Shackleford. Although, based upon the fact that only two Belmont favorites have won in the last 15 years, I don’t think any of their connections will be troubled not to be favored at post-time. Not only that, but over the last nine years we’ve seen three Belmont winners strike at over 35-1 (Da’ Tara, Birdstone, Sarava)!

Read more... http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Sadler's Wells tribute

It has been over one month now since chef-de-race sire Sadler's Wells died at the age of 30 at his Coolmore Stud home in County Tipperary, Ireland. Yet I have noticed only nominal articles highlighting his unprecedented accomplishments at stud due to the fact his death was overshadowed by the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby. Even though this son of Northern Dancer (who was actually foaled in Kentucky) was known as a European sire, his legacy deserves our attention and respect considering he is to thank for our 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Read more at http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Barbaro - 5 years later...

This is a bittersweet Preakness weekend for me for sure. Since my birthday (17th) falls on the week of the Preakness I'm usually celebrating with a watch party or even attending the race in Baltimore (about to fly northeast for the second year in a row). Not to mention my four year consecutive streak of cashing Preakness exotic bets - truly a rarity with my unorthodox handicapping skills.

Read more at http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown

Preakness Stakes 136 Preview

Lookin At Lucky redeemed himself in Baltimore after a troubled trip in Louisville en route to an Eclipse award for 3YO male. Can Dialed In follow in his steps and claim the $5.5 million Magna bonus? Or will Animal Kingdom again reign supreme? We'll know in a few days!

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Preakness_136_Preview_Pace_makes_the_race_123